Thursday, October 13, 2011

Another Mixed Day for Stocks....

The early earnings posted by JP Morgan held the Dow and S&P back today.  Also, weakness in Europe overnight caused a selloff in Gold and Silver.  However, Technology posted decent gains.

Dow -40
Nas +15
S&P -3 to 1203

Leading the market higher:

Apple +6.24 to 408.43
Google +1049 to 558.99
Visa +1.43 to 92.60
Mastercard +8.00 to 335.99
Netflix +3.39 to 117.01
Walter Energy +8.45 to 75.22

JP Morgan closed down 1.60 to 31.60

I thought these were already gone...

The payphone business is shrinking rapidly, but that hasn't stopped Pacific Telemanagement Services, a little-known company that agreed to buy nearly all Verizon's (VZ) remaining 50,000 pay phones. PTS will operate nearly 100,000 payphones out of ~425,000 still in existence in the U.S.; Verizon now owns just 4,000, down from a peak of 500,000.

Blackberry service back up and running...

On a conference call, Research In Motion (RIMM) co-CEO Mike Lazaridis tells reporters the company has fully restored BlackBerry service.

This blackout could deal a fatal blow to RIMM.

Banks pulling market lower...

Early market action is driven by weakness in financials (XLF -3.1%), which has wiped out yesterday's big gains in the sector. Big banks are taking their cue from JPMorgan Chase (JPM -4.7%), which reported lower profits and said it will trim headcount at its investment bank by 1,000 jobs. Bank of America (BAC -4.1%) and Citigroup (C -5.3%) report results next week.

Today's Upgrades and Downgrades...

These are some of this Thursday’s top analyst upgrades, downgrades, and initiations seen having an impact from Wall Street research calls.

Altera Corporation (NASDAQ: ALTR) Cut to Neutral at Baird.
Bank of New York-Mellon (NYSE: BK) named as Bear of the Day at Zacks.
Broadcom Corporation (NASDAQ: BRCM) Raised to Outperform at Baird.
Cell Therapeutics, Inc. (NASDAQ: CTIC) named as Bull of the Day at Zacks.
Clearwire Corporation (NASDAQ: CLWR) was Underperform and has been dropped from coverage by BofA/ML as fundamentals are not driving the shares.
ConocoPhillips (NYSE: COP) Reiterated Buy with $85 target on Focus List at Argus.
Dollar General Corporation (NYSE: DG) reiterated strong buy as Momentum stock of the day at Zacks.
Gold Fields Limited (NYSE: GFI) named as Value stock of the day at Zacks.
Hatteras Financial Corporation (NYSE: HTS) Cut to Neutral at Macquarie.
The Kroger Co. (NYSE: KR) Cut to Hold at Jefferies.
NetEase.com, Inc. (NASDAQ: NTES) Raised to Overweight at Piper Jaffray.
Novavax, Inc. (NASDAQ: NVAX) Started as Buy at Ladenburg Thalmann.
Rackspace Hosting, Inc (NYSE: RAX) Raised to Buy at Goldman Sachs, but reportedly Downgraded to hold at a firm called Benchmark.

Wedbush likes eBay...

Wedbush pounds the table for eBay (EBAY) following its X.commerce announcements. The firm calls eBay "the best investment in the growth of mobile payments," thanks to the breadth of PayPal's solutions. Wedbush also expects PayPal to help drive "significant multiple expansion" for eBay.

eBay is currently down 0.56 to 32.19

At 10:00 am...

Stocks are lower after a weak night in Europe and the JP Morgan Earnings release.

Dow -101
Nas -9
S&P -12 to 1194

Banks, Oils and Commodities are selling off, while Technology holds up well.

JP Morgan earnings...

JPMorgan (JPM): Q3 EPS of $1.02 beats by $0.08. Revenue of $24.4B beats by $700M.

After popping higher on the headline number beat, JPMorgan (JPM) turns south as closer analysis reveals $0.29 of profit was debt valuation adjustment. Without that, JPM would have reported earnings of just $0.73, a large miss.

JP Morgan is currently down 1.59 to 31.62

IRS questions Google tax avoidance...

A source tells Bloomberg that the IRS is auditing Google (GOOG) over how the company avoids taxes by using offshore subsidiaries, and has requested information on its $1.65B acquisition of YouTube. The focus of the agency may be tied to how Google values software rights and IP it licenses abroard. A company spokesman calls the inquiry "routine."

Good Morning....

Stocks open lower this morning on a weak earnings report from financial bellweather, JP Morgan.

The Dow is coming off its highest close since August 31, and the S&P 500 and Nasdaq have risen in six of the past seven sessions.

The Dow briefly moved into positive territory for 2011 Wednesday before a mild late-session selloff.

Stock News:

Akamai Technologies (AKAM) is a stock to watch in today's trading, having soared after hours on reports that Google (GOOG) was interested in acquiring it - a rumor that several sources now say is a non-starter.

We'll also watch shares of AOL (AOL) on reports that CEO Tim Armstrong has been pitching top shareholders on the idea of selling the company to Yahoo (YHOO).

Service troubles continue to plague BlackBerry users, though Research In Motion (RIM) says the situation has improved as it continues to work to solve the problem.

Apple (AAPL) is in the news on two fronts this morning: the Wall Street Journal reports the company is in talks with Hollywood Studios over the idea of letting iTunes movie buyers watch streaming versions, and an Australian court has granted Apple's request for a temporary ban on sales of Samsung's Galaxy tablet in that country.

Peabody Energy (BTU) and ArcelorMittal (MT) have won China's approval for their $4.7 billion takeover of Australia's Macarthur Coal, which could move those stocks today.  Chinese approval was needed because Macarthur controls a substantial portion of the Chinese metallurgical coal market.

Google (GOOG) is scheduled to come out with their earnings after this afternoon's closing bell.

Wednesday, October 12, 2011

Stocks fade in last hour...

Stocks lost steam in the last hour ahead of a key earnings report tomorrow from JP Morgan.  Trading today was on very light volume.  Looks like the shorts have been scared out for now, and funds are starting to put money to work.  Any funds that have been sitting in cash have missed a thousand point move in the Dow in the last two weeks.  Those funds have to get in if the market keeps moving higher for fear that they might miss more of the run.

Here's how we finished:

Dow +102
Nas +21
S&P +11 to 1207

Now that we are back above 1200 on the S&P, traders are looking at 1220 as the next key level to break thru.  1300 is the real key level that to me would represent a "Buy" signal.

RIMM services still down...

Research In Motion (RIMM -2.1%) sells off as outages plague its data services for the third straight day, reaching North America and sending Wall Street into withdrawal. As Susquehanna notes, the real problem for RIM isn't any short-term revenue loss, but the building of "negative goodwill," and the potential for even greater customer defections.

JP Morgan reports tomorrow...

J.P. Morgan (JPM) +3.56% , the first of the large U.S. banks reporting third-quarter results, is scheduled to release its latest earnings before the opening bell on Thursday.

Equities trading, which accounts for roughly one-tenth of J.P. Morgan’s revenue, slumped in the third quarter. Even with unusually high trading volumes in August, enough investors had sidelined their money over the summer to cut into trading fees at investment banks following Standard & Poor’s downgrade of the United States’ national debt, the U.S. debt-ceiling debate, and continued worries over Europe’s sovereign debt problems.

In a research note, Matthew Burnell at Wells Fargo called it a “perfect storm” of complications in the capital markets.

“Equity prices fell in both the U.S. and internationally, debt spreads widened across most products, ‘risk-off’ trades were investors’ focus, and investment banking underwriting and M&A volumes dropped in August and September due to market volatility,” Burnell wrote.

PVH says it will hit the high end of estimates...

PVH, formerly known as Phillips-Van Heusen, gains +6% after saying it expects Q3 and FY11 EPS to be at least at the high end of guidance, as the apparel company reaps the benefits from strong sales in its Calvin Klein and newly acquired Tommy Hilfiger brands. The company said back in August it expects Q3 EPS in the range of $ 1.75 to $1.81 on revenue of between $1.61B to $1.63B.

1:45 pm update...

Stocks are still moving to the upside, as it seems like there is a steady flow of money coming into the market.  Volume is fairly light though.

Dow +175
Nas +40
S&P +21 to 1216

Leading the market higher:

Apple +6.20 to 406.35
Google +9.52 to 552.70
IBM +2.83 to 187.83
Nike +2.47 to 92.30
Phillips Van Heusen +3.11 to 67.15
Netflix +5.81 to 114.40

PlayStation gets hacked...

Sony (SNE) discovers a "large amount" of unauthorized sign-in attempts on its its PlayStation Network and other services, and temporarily freezes about 93,000 user accounts. Only a small fraction of the accounts showed activity by possible intruders, while credit card details are "not at risk."

11:00 am update....

Stocks are broadly higher this morning as it seems there is optimism that the Euro crisis is subsiding.

Dow +96
Nas +32
S&P +14 to 1210

Note: The S&P 500 has climbed back above 1200.  This is a key level hold above...at least for the time being.  Gold and Silver are rallying as they seem to be tied to the Strength of the Euro.  Back when Gold and Silver were selling off, the rumor was that some European funds were selling to raise money for their Euro losses.  Now, as the Euro climbs back higher vs. the dollar, that selling has stopped.

Coinstar benefits from Netflix misstep...

Shares of Coinstar (CSTR), up 3.3%, get a boost from Piper Jaffray after analysts keep an Overweight rating in place to go along with a healthy $68 price target. The firm points to data showing a nice lift to Redbox's DVD kiosk business and web traffic after the Netflix (NFLX +3.9%) pricing debacle turned away a portion of their own customers.

Apple launches iCloud...

Apple (AAPL) opens the door to the cloud with the launch of iCloud - included free with an update to iOS 5. The service is Apple's most ambitious bid to offer a service to sync files in the cloud after previous attempts fell flat, as noted by Steve Jobs - "keeping these devices in sync is driving us crazy." The bottom line: If iCloud is a hit, it could further increase loyalty to Apple's ecosystem of devices and disrupt the plans of cloud storage companies.

EBAY announces new PayPal feature...

EBAY plans to announce a new payment feature, called PayPal Access, designed to allow consumers to use their accounts across the web without having to register individually at every site a purchase is made. With 100M active registered accounts, the company is poised to make a large splash with the new system if it can bring merchants on board.