Wednesday, September 21, 2011

Stocks sell off on Fed action...

Stocks closed at the lows of the day:

Dow -283 to 11124
Nas -52 to 2538
S&P -35 to 1166

Transports got crushed losing nearly 6%.

Maybe something good will come out overnight.

Thank you Fed!!!

I mean, am I the only one who sees that the market clearly wants the Fed to STOP pulling out new ways to knock interest rates lower???

Today's action is supposed lead to lower mortgage rates...as if interest rates aren't low enough.  Here's the problem:  there is now nowhere to invest your safe money!!!

IDIOTS just don't get it.

Gold dropping as market sells off???

I've been tracking the performance of the Gold ETF lately and it is no longer a place to hide when markets sell off.  This afternoon, the Dow is down 171 points...and Gold is selling off, in fact looking like it it is going to break down.

Here is the GLD chart.  We'll keep a close eye on it:

Facebook changes front page...

Have you been on Facebook yet today???  Be prepared to see alot more crap on your front page.  Big Mistake Facebook!!!  Looks like Facebook is turning into an advertising site. 

If they don't change back to the old, uncluttered front page, I'm afraid they may have lost me as a user.

Fed initiates "Twist"...

The Fed announcement is in and the"Twist" is on - the central bank will swap $400B of Treasurys into longer maturities in a range of six to 30 years, by selling in a range of three years or less, to be completed by end of June 2012. Three voters dissent.

As the news was released, the market initially rose thinking the Fed was doing nothing, but as more details of the plan were read, the market sold off.  As I said, I think the market wanted nothing.

As I write this:

Dow -48
Nas +6
S&P -8

Hopefully we hold up here....but I'm not too optimistic.

Americans are grumpy...

Gallup's latest polling finds Americans in a grumpy mood. They're more skeptical than ever of the federal government’s spending habits, convinced it squanders more than half of each dollar it uses, and six in 10 don't think the economy will improve any time soon, a sharp increase in pessimism from two years ago.


6 in 10???..I think it's more like 9 in 10. 

Hansen Natuaral upgraded by UBS...

Hansen Natural (HANS) is up 1.6% after UBS reiterates a Buy, predicting the company's Monster energy drink line will continue posting double-digit growth through 2013. It also expects Hansen as a whole to average 20.5% annual earnings growth over the next 3 years.


I sense this stock has run up enough based on one energy drink.  We are taking our profits on this upgrade....locking in a 20% gain in 6 weeks.

Moody's also cuts Wells Fargo debt...

Moody's cuts Wells Fargo's (WFC -0.2%) rating from A1 to A2, expecting - as with Bank of America (BAC) - less likelihood of government support should things get rough again. "It is also more likely now than during the financial crisis to allow a large bank to fail should it become financially troubled."

Moody's cuts Bank of America debt...

Bank of America (BAC -3.2%) is downgraded by Moody's to Baa1 from A2. The move comes from a decrease in the probability the government would support the bank, if necessary, but "do(es) not reflect a weakening of the intrinsic credit quality of BofA."

Noon update...

Stocks are mixed at noon, as trading is slowing as we await Fed announcement at 2:15 pm.

Dow -44
Nas +11
S&P -4

Commodities are the weakest sector, but some of the familiar names are still moving higher:

Apple +6.50 to 420
Chipotle +7 to 340
Hansen +1.94 to 93.90
Mako +1.09 to 40.18
Amazon +5.04 to 238.30

As we saw yesterday, those gains could evaporate quickly if traders don't like what comes out of the Fed meeting.

I think the market would react more favorably if the Fed announces nothing new.  Traders have made it clear that they are now just wanting all problems to work themselves out on their own.  We really should not be doing anything else to push interest rates any lower. 

I'll be back after the Fed decision.

At 10:00 am....

Stocks are higher, but just barely.  Looks like we may just tread water here until the 2:15 pm announcement from the Fed on interest rates.

Dow +18
Nas +17
S&P +1 to 1203

Gold opened higher but is now selling off. 

MSFT Boosts dividend 25%...

Microsoft (MSFT) boosts its quarterly dividend +25% to $0.20 per share, payable December 8 to shareholders of record on November 17.

OK.  Not that I am against dividends, but Microsoft's stock was down 23 cents yesterday.  That is more than the quarterly dividend.  So, what's the point in buying a stock because of it's dividend???  Without growth, that dividend means nothing.

Coal stocks tumbling after Walter Energy warns...

Keep an eye on Market Vectors Coal ETF (KOL) following weak guidance from Walter Energy (WLT) (-10.7% premarket) and Alpha Natural Resources (ANR) (-11.2% premarket). WLT is a pure-play met coal producer, and ANR cited soft met coal shipments to Asia amid a surprising dip in customer activity.

I tell you...it's just not worth playing with these commodity stocks!!!

Now this is stupid to me....

Netflix (NFLX) has issued $200M in bonds, paying 8.5% interest, to buy back shares and boost its tumbling share price. The company now has less than half the cash it held five years ago, and subscriber defections are likely to accelerate, as it faces costly expansion and $2.4B in future commitments to license content for its streaming service.

Let's do the math:  The stock is currently at 130.  They need 8.5% (or 11 point) gain in the the stock to break even.  Problems start accelerating if the stock price goes lower. 

Problem is: No one has DISH...

DISH Network's (DISH) "A Stream Come True" event this Friday means more bad news for reeling Netflix (NFLX), Jefferies says. Blockbuster has strong legacy relationships with film and TV studios; its releases are available a month before Netflix and Redbox (CSTR); and a low-cost subscription to older content could rival Netflix and Amazon (AMZN) "at a potentially more attractive price point."

Senate investigates search results...

Execs from Google (GOOG) rivals Nextag, Yelp, and Expedia (EXPE) are in Washington DC set to testify at today's Senate antitrust hearing concerning if Google unfairly drives search engine visitors to its own branded sites. In previous discussions with lawmakers, Google has leaned on its constitutional right to air "opinions" as part of its search ranking system.

The Google search results are completely out of control.  Ever search for something and have to scroll thru 20 pages of results to find what you really wanted??

Stocks in the news...

Today's earnings calendar includes the latest quarterly numbers from General Mills (GIS) this morning, and from Bed Bath & Beyond (BBBY) and Red Hat (RHT) after this afternoon's closing bell. 

Oracle (ORCL) is a stock to watch this morning, after fiscal first quarter earnings beat Street estimates and the company made upbeat comments about the current quarter.

Adobe Systems (ADBE) also beat estimates with its profits and forecast a strong finish to 2011.

Orexigen (OREX) surged in after-hours trading after announcing it would begin a new heart safety trial of its experimental obesity drug Contrave. It's hoping to reverse the FDA's prior stance that it could not approve the pill because of its cardiovascular effects.

UBS (UBS) is also on our watch list, as CEO Oswald Gruebel reportedly rules out a sale of the company's investment banking division.

Apache (APA) is buying some UK assets from Exxon Mobil (XOM) in a $1.75 billion deal.

And Boeing (BA) is reportedly in advanced discussions with Chinese airlines about its 787 Dreamliner aircraft that could lead to new orders.

Good morning...

An already volatile U.S. stock market could become more so today, with a Fed statement looming amid the ongoing headlines about Greece and the European debt crisis.

Stocks lost most of Tuesday's midday gains on worries about the failure of Greece to announce a definitive deal following a conference call with EU, ECB, and IMF leaders.

Federal Reserve policymakers conclude their two-day meeting with their latest policy statement at about 2:15pm ET, and the most widely anticipated outcome is the announcement of what's being referred to as Operation Twist, a move towards longer duration Treasuries in the Fed's portfolio.