Wednesday, February 6, 2008

Daily Summary....

U.S. Markets:

Dow -65.03 (-0.53%)
Nasdaq -30.82 (-1.33%)
S&P 500 -10.19 (-0.76%)

News That Moved the Market:

Markets Finish Down, Continue Drop After Close. Markets succumbed to selling pressures after a positive morning. The biggest news however was Cisco's (CSCO) outlook, which failed to impress Wall Street. The company said it saw weakness in January that may continue over the "next few months." CEO Officer John Chambers forecasted sales growth of 10% in the next fiscal quarter, well below average analyst projection of 15%. Though the company's results, which were released Wednesday after the bell, were basically in-line, investors were more focused on the company's outlook. Shares of Cisco were hammered along with major indices after hours. Unless a timely positive catalyst occurs between now and the opening bell tomorrow, expect to open tomorrow with significant losses.

Macy's Drops On Outlook. Macy's (M) cut its forecast for the current quarter after a weak January and will let go of 2,300 employees. The company's same-store sales for January fell 7.9%.

Rio Tinto Rejects BHP's Bid. Rio Tinto (RTP) declined BHP Billiton's (BHP) $147 billion all-stock bid. Rio said the bid undervalues the company and did not open the door for further negotiations.

MBIA To Raise $750 Million By Issuing Shares. MBIA (MBI) jumped in after-hours trading after it announced it would raise $750 million in an effort to sure up funds to keep its AAA rating. Fitch Ratings however said that the additional funds still may not be enough to save the bond insurer.

Tomorrow Notable Earnings:

Pepsi (PEP) Before Open

Economic Events:

Chain Store Sales
7:00 AM: Bank of England Announcement
7:45 AM: European Central Bank Announcement
8:30 AM: Jobless Claims
10:00 AM: Pending Home Sales

Bulletin: Update on Northwest/Delta Deal...

The Wall Street Journal is just reporting that a deal could be complete as soon as next week.

Look for more consolidation talk and speculation in airlines....Jetblue, Continental, US Air.

Rally Fizzles Out as Stocks Roll Over....

After being up all day, the market has just turned negative again.

Not necessarily a huge wave of selling, it looks more like buyers are staying on the sidelines, allowing bears to regain control.

Cisco has earnings after the bell this evening. A disappointment would virtually assure that we are headed back down for a retest of the bottom made on January 22.

Jetblue Gives Reason for Move...

Jetblue Airways reports its traffic in January increased 7.2% (JBLU) $6.73 +0.41 :

Co announces its traffic in January increased 7.2% from January 2007, on a capacity increase of 8.0%. Load factor for January 2008 was 75.6%, a decrease of 0.5 points from January 2007. JetBlue's preliminary completion factor was 98.7% and its on-time performance was 76.7%. JetBlue's preliminary passenger revenue per available seat mile for the month of January increased ten percent year over year.

Technical Alert: Zimmer Holdings.....

ZMH up .78 to $77.70

Check out the Daily chart on Zimmer Holdings (ZMH). The stock gapped up last week after they guided higher on 2008 earnings. It has formed a classic Bullish high-tight flag pattern. A break above $79.50 would be a significant move for the stock.

Jetblue Climbing Again...

JBLU up .40 to $6.72

After running up last week from $5 to $7.00, the stock fell back a bit. Today it is resuming it's run. A break thru $7 would be very positive with $9-$10 as the next level of resitance.

Technical Breakout: Thornburg Mortgage...

TMA up 1.04 to $12.95

Thornburg Mortgage (TMA) is breaking out from a four month base today on higher volume. The stock was trying to break higher yesterday, but the broad market held it back. This morning it broke easily through resistance at $12. Next level of resitance is $13.50. After that, nothing until the low 20's.

Mastercard Down on Rumors....

MA down 3.50 to $203.30

MasterCard (MA) is down this morning on rumors the ECB and EU will implement major cross-border charges which would crush profit margins.

The stock hit $198 earlier.

VMware Clawing its Way Back Up...

VMW up 2.23 to $61.55

The stock is climbing off a bottom set on January 29, when the stock gapped down from $82 to $55 after posting a slight disappointment in earnings.

What's Going on With Northwest and Delta???

While there has been no confirmation of a potential merger between Delta (DAL) and Northwest Airlines (NWA), the two put on a show which suggests they are exploring a closer relationship.

After both stocks gapped higher on January 10, both are trying to break off their latest base today.

DAL up 1.02 to $18.05

NWA up .61 to $18.39

Sony Leapfrogs LCD TV Market...

Sony (SNE) jumped from fourth to first place in U.S. LCD TV sales in Q4, largely due to its pushing big screens, and high-value, high-margin products.

Sony's stock hit a 52-week low this morning....Fundamentally it looks strong.

Biogen's Net Income Nearly Doubles....

BIIB up 1.37 to $61.89

Biogen Idec Inc.'s (BIIB) fourth-quarter net income nearly doubled as sales of multiple sclerosis drugs Avonex and Tysabri continued to grow sharply. The Massachusetts biotech company reported net income of $201.2 million, or 67 cents a share, from $108.6 million, or 32 cents a share, a year earlier. Excluding items, including acquisition-related costs and a prior-year license settlement, earnings rose to 89 cents a share from 53 cents.

Revenue jumped 26% to $893.3 million. The mean per-share earnings estimate of analysts polled by Thomson Financial was 80 cents on revenue of $836 million.

Sales of Biogen's bestseller, multiple sclerosis drug Avonex, grew 15% to $502.5 million. The company's portion of sales from its other multiple sclerosis drug, Tysabri, rose fivefold to $89.6 million out of $129 million in global sales. The balance goes to Biogen's partner on the drug, Elan Corp. (ELN). Arthritis drug Rituxan's sales grew 17% to $254 million. Biogen co-promotes with Genentech Inc. (DNA), and gets a share of pretax profits.

Looking forward, Biogen backed its previous estimate of per-share earnings, excluding items of $3.20 to $3.35 on revenue up 15% to 20%. Analysts expect 2008 per-share earnings of $3.30 on revenue up 15% to $3.59 billion. The company has said it expects to double its profit by 2010.

JDSU Blows Away Estimates....

JDS Uniphase Corp.'s (JDSU) fiscal second-quarter fell to $21.2 million, or 9 cents a share, from $23.2 million, or 10 cents a share, a year earlier. Excluding items, per-share earnings were 22 cents. The technology networking equipment maker's revenue rose to $399.2 million from $366.3 million a year earlier.

Analysts had predicted earnings of 12 cents a share and revenue of $386.4 million. Analyst estimates typically exclude items.

The stock is up 3.00 to $13.15 this morning....

Consumer Courage Collapses....

U.S. consumer confidence fell to a 14-year low according to the ABC News/Washington Post Consumer Comfort Index. 59% of Americans think the economy is already in a recession. The index fell 13 points over the last month, similar to its reaction prior to the 1990-91 and 2001 recessions.

Housing Woes Take Toll on Toll Bros....

Toll Bros. (TOL) warned Q1 revenue fell 22% to $843M. TOL expects Q1 writedowns of $150-300M. Backlog fell 42% to $2.4B. Gross contracts signed fell 46%.

CEO Robert Toll said he has yet to see the proverbial light at the end of the tunnel.

Google Bringing Free Music to China...

Google (GOOG), together with a Chinese parter, is about to reveal a market-changing service that will offer free, licensed music downloads in China. The move is a direct challenge to Baidu's (BIDU) music search domination, which has helped it keep Google at bay.

Analysts say 90% of China's 162 million internet surfers use pirated music from their computers at least once a day.

Now we know why Google ticked higher all day yesterday.

BHP Billiton Raises Bid for Rio Tinto...

Mining giant BHP Billiton (BHP) late Tuesday upped its bid for rival Rio Tinto (RTP) to $147 billion. The move came a few days after Aluminum Corp. of China and Alcoa Inc. (AA) bought a big block of Rio shares.

Disney Beats Estimates....

Walt Disney Co. (DIS). The Burbank, CA-based entertainment company reported Tuesday fiscal first-quarter net income of $1.25 billion, or 66 cents a share, down from $1.7 billion, or 83 cents a share in the year-earlier period.

Excluding non-recurring items, adjusted earnings were 63 cents a share, compared with the mean estimate of analysts surveyed by Thomson Financial of 52 cents a share. Revenue for the quarter ending Dec. 31 rose 9% to $10.45 billion from last year's $9.58 billion.

Disney is up 1.80 to $31.80 premarket...helping give the Dow a lift this morning.

Earnings Due Today....

COMPANIES REPORTING EARNINGS

• Alcon Inc. (ACL). Expected to report Q4 earnings of $1.28 a share, according to analysts polled by Thomson Financial.

• Biogen Idec Inc. (BIIB). Expected to report Q4 earnings of $0.80 a share.

• Cisco Systems Inc. (CSCO). Expected to post Q2 earnings of $0.38 a share.

• Electronic Data Systems (EDS). Expected to post Q4 earnings of $0.57 a share.

• Fiserv Inc. (FISV). Expected to post Q4 earnings of $0.71 a share.

• IAC Interactivecorp (IACI). Expected to post Q4 earnings of $0.55 a share.

• Kimco Realty Corp. (KIM). Expected to post Q4 earnings of $0.26 a share.

• McClatchy (MNI). Expected to post Q4 earnings of $0.48 a share.

• MetLife Inc. (MET). Expected to post Q4 earnings of $1.43 a share.

• Polo Ralph Lauren Corp. (RL). Expected to report Q3 earnings of $0.77 a share.

• Prudential Financial Inc. (PRU). Expected to report Q4 earnings of $1.88 a share.

• Sara Lee Corp. (SLE). Expected to report Q2 earnings of $0.24 a share.


Cisco's the main one today....due after the close this evening.

Wellcare Gets Hawaii Contract...

Wellcare Health Plans Inc. (WCG) said its 'Ohana Health Plans Inc. unit was awarded a contract to participate in the Hawaii QUEST Expanded Access program, according to a filing with the Securities and Exchange Commission. The program provides Medicaid managed care services to Hawaii's Medicaid aged, blind and disabled members who are currently receiving services through the fee-for-service system.

Under the contract, 'Ohana will arrange for the provision of members' primary, acute and long term care services. The contract is effective Feb. 1 until June 30, 2011. 'Ohana is expected to begin providing services to members on Nov. 1. Shares of the Tampa-based managed-care services provider closed Tuesday at $47.71.

S&P Warns of Bank Downgrades.....

S&P warns of bank downgrades if bond insurers slip: Commercial and investment banks could see their credit ratings cut if the bond insurers backing some of the banks' assets are downgraded, Standards & Poor's said. One analyst estimated that U.S. financial institutions could face as much as $70 billion in new writedowns if bond insurers lose their "AAA" ratings.