Wednesday, May 26, 2010

Final Market Breadth Numbers...

Breadth was positive all day until the final hour. ...you can see the Nasdaq Declining Volume overtook Advancing Volume. We are in one of those periods where no one has any conviction...so traders are opening positions premarket and closing them out before the market closes. Kind of irritating.

What was that????

The market sells off in the last hour to close down on the day. Program trading is in high gear!!!

Dow - 69 to 9974
Nas - 15 to 2195
S&P -6 to 1068

Ulta Salon, Cosmetics....

Here's another favorite stock. Nice weekly chart. Stock is climbing again today despite getting a downgrade this morning from Thomas Weisel.

J Crew Downgraded at BMO....

J. Crew Group may have a solid following among consumers, with a strong product lineup and brand identity, but BMO Capital said Wednesday that the retailer may have maxed out its growth opportunities for now.

THE OPINION: Analyst John Morris said J. Crew has delivered above-average returns recently as it captured market share from department stores but its strengths are already recognized in its stock price. And the company faces a tough second half of the year if the overall retail business slows.

THE STOCK: J. Crew's stock fell $1.96, more than 4 percent, to $42.73 in midday trading Wednesday. Morris lowered his rating on the company to "Market Perform" from "Outperform" and lowered his price target from $55 to $48. He also lowered its 2010 guidance to $2.45 from $2.50 and 2011 estimate to $2.82 from $2.92.

Apple overtakes Microsoft in Market Cap....

Apple, the maker of iPods, iPhones and iPads, overtook Microsoft, the computer software giant, on Wednesday to become the world’s most valuable technology company.

In intraday trading shortly after 2:30 p.m., Apple shares rose 1.8 percent, which gave the company a value of $227.1 billion. Shares of Microsoft declined about 1 percent, giving the company a market capitalization of $226.3 billion. (Let's see if it holds up).

The only American company valued higher is Exxon Mobil, with a market capitalization of $282 billion.

Why the VMWare move???

VMware Inc. shares rose Wednesday after an analyst upgraded the virtual desktop service provider, saying the company is in a better position than many other software companies.

THE SPARK: In a note to investors Wednesday, RBC Capital Markets analyst Robert Breza upgraded VMware shares to "Outperform" from "Sector Perform" and raised his price target by $12 to $75.

THE BIG PICTURE: Companies are shifting toward virtualization because it helps them cut data center costs. Instead of needing one server for each task, software such as that offered by VMware lets one server computer do many more things simultaneously. Virtualization is also extending beyond servers in data centers to applications and even whole desktops.

THE ANALYSIS: Breza said VMware is "one of the best-positioned software companies" and he expects it to gain from several technology trends in the next several years, such as growth in cloud-computing applications. He also thinks its enterprise license agreement is "under-appreciated by investors" and could result in the company raising its earnings estimates this year.

NCR continues to go after DVD market....

Blockbuster's DVD vending machines will be installed at more than 100 grocery stores in Texas.

NCR Corp., which operates the rental kiosks for Blockbuster, said Wednesday that the machines will come to 105 Tom Thumb and Randalls stores in Dallas, Austin and Houston by the end of May as replacements for existing DVDPlay kiosks.

NCR bought DVDPlay in December, and since then has been working to replace DVDPlay kiosks with Blockbuster Express kiosks.

The kiosk rollout is part of Blockbuster's effort to catch up with Redbox, the Coinstar Inc. subsidiary that pioneered $1-per-night rentals from vending machines.

Market still up, but fading....

Stocks are paring their gains on Wednesday after investors bought shares of beaten-down companies following recent losses, and after new home sales rose last month to their highest in almost two years.

SXC Health Solutions...

SXCI is another stock I love.
SXC Health Solutions Corp. provides pharmacy benefit management (PBM) services and healthcare information technology solutions in North America. Very strong earnings and revenue growth.

VM Ware Chart is looking strong....

The stock is now up 4.00 today to $65.30. You can see it is breaking out to New Highs.

Amazon Kindle Losing momentum...

AMZN – from WSJ Heard on the Street; the Kindle is losing momentum to Apple and its
iPad and Touch; AMZN mgmt appeared to lower expectations for the Kindle at its
shareholder meeting Tues; AMZN valuation still rich.

New Home Sales Better than Expected...

Apr. New Home Sales: +14.8% to 504K vs. 425K expected, 439K (revised) in March. Months' supply 5 vs. 6.7 prior. Median price $198,400.

Here's a Strange Story for you....

Apple Inc. said Wednesday that it is independently investigating how one of its Taiwan suppliers is dealing with nine suicides among its workers in China.

The object of the investigation is Hon-Hai Precision Industry Inc., which does business as Foxconn and assembles Apple (NASDAQ:AAPL) products including the iPhone and MacBook. It also does work for Dell Inc., Sony Corp. and Nokia Corp.

The Apple investigation comes after nine Hon-Hai workers in Shenzhen died from falls at buildings that have been confirmed as suicides. This has raised concerns about working conditions in the factories.

Hon Hai founder and chairman Terry Gou on Wednesday outlined a series of safety precautions the company is instituting, including installing 1.5 million square meters of safety nets around the outsides of all worker dormitories.

He has rejected characterizations of his factories as "sweat shops" and said it is difficult to manage a work force of 800,000 people, but the company is taking steps.

Upcoming Earnings...

Wed May 26:
After the close (NetApp, Verifone);

Thurs May 27:
Before the open (Lenovo, Genesco, Heinz, Big Lots, Costco);
After the close (Blue Coat Systems, J. Crew);

Fri May 28:
Before the open (Mentor Graphics)

Toll Brothers with Mixed Results...

Toll Brothers (TOL):
Mixed result here as the earnings miss, revenue miss, gross margin miss, higher charges, and lower closings; however, The new orders number was well ahead of the street and the company's outlook was pretty upbeat.

FQ2 EPS of -$0.24 misses by $0.01. Revenue of $311M (-21.9%) vs. $322M.

Top Hedge Fund Holdings....

Every quarter, Goldman Sachs puts out the list of the top holdings owned by hedge funds. The top holdings are what you would expect: Apple (AAPL), Bank of America (BAC), Microsoft (MSFT), Google (GOOG), and JP Morgan (JPM).

The 12 new holdings on the list are:

CIT Group (CIT)
CF Industries (CF)
Aclon (ACL)
Coca Cola Enterprises (CCE)
Kraft (KFT)
Xerox (XRX)
Assured Guaranty (AGO)
Baidu (BIDU)
Equinix (EQIX)
Gilead Sciences (GILD)
Liberty (LBTYA)
News Corp (NWSA)

American Eagle Reports In-Line....

American Eagle Outfitters (AEO): Q1 EPS of $0.17 in-line. Revenue of $659.5M (+7.8%) vs. $656M.

Shares -6.1% premarket.

Futures Point to Higher Opening...

Stock futures are near their morning highs in the minutes that follow the latest dose of durable goods orders data. Durable goods orders for April spiked 2.9%, which is much stronger than the 1.5% increase that had been widely expected.

Mortgage Applications up....

MBA Mortgage Applications: +11.3% vs. -1.5% last week.

Thirty-year fixed mortgage rate decreased to 4.80% from 4.83%.