Wednesday, March 12, 2008

Wednesday's Summary....

U.S. Markets

Dow -46.57 (-0.38%)
Nasdaq -11.89 (-0.53%)
S&P 500 -11.88 (-0.90%)

News That Moved the Market

Stocks Fizzle Out. A late sell-off ensured the market would finish lower; one day after the Dow was up more than 4%. Stocks did trade higher for a large part of the session, but could not gain any momentum and looked overextended after huge gains yesterday. Oil topped $110/barrel for the first time, despite a greater than expected build in inventories. Instead of trading lower, investors seemed to have a "buy on the dip" mentality, pushing oil up another $1.17 to finish at $109.92. Government data showed speculators and fund managers are making bets for higher oil, with net long positions tripling in the last month. The rally should end when hedge funds and speculators decide to start taking profits, and will depend less on economic data, as exhibited today.

Target In Talks To Sell Half of Credit Card Division. Mega-retailer Target (TGT, -0.95% day; +1.45% A.H.) announced after the close it is in negotiations to sell about half of its credit-card loans for $4 billion. The potential acquirer was not named. The money could be used for stock buybacks, increasing shareholder value, and would create more stability on Target's balance sheet.

Quick Tics:

Caterpillar (CAT, +3.6%) and G.E. (GE, +1.7%) were both up after each company released positive outlooks…

Eliot Spitzer resigned as New York Governor after news surfaced yesterday of his connection to a prostitution ring…

Humana (HUM, -13.7%) dropped after cutting its earnings outlook.

Tomorrow Notable Earnings

Aeropostale, Inc. (ARO) Time Not Supplied

Economic Events:

8:30 AM: Retail Sales
8:30 AM: Jobless Claims
8:30 AM: Import and Export Prices
10:00 AM: Business Inventories

Finally the Fed Gets it Right...

The Fed said it will inject another $200B into the economy, lending money against mortgage-backed debt for 28 days, vs. the current overnight. The move sparked a 3.6% gain in the Dow, its biggest rally in five years. The Fed hopes the additional liquidity will help Wall Street bankers cushion their books against loan defaults and depressed debt securities.

The odds of a 75 BP cut to the Fed's current 3% target on March 18 fell to 64%; it had previously been fully priced-in.

Most importantly, the Market is actually showing respect for this latest move by the Fed. A huge rally yesterday and what is shaping up to be a follow-up rally today...

Technical Watch: Zimmer Holdings...

Check out the Daily chart on Zimmer Holdings (ZMH). The stock has formed a near perfect "cup and handle" formation.

The point to BUY would be if the stock breaks clearly above the $79-80 area.

The stock is up 1.05 to $76.15 this morning....and ticking higher.

Steel Dynamics Raises Guidance...

Steel Dynamics Inc. (STLD). the Fort Wayne, Ind.-based steel company late Tuesday said it now expects first-quarter earnings of $1.25 to $1.30 a share, up from its previous outlook of $1.10 to $1.20 a share, based on higher-than-anticipated flat-rolled steel pricing and improved scrap-processing results.

The current mean estimate of analysts polled by Thomson Financial is for a per-share profit of $1.18 for the quarter. Additionally, the company said it now expects full-year 2008 earnings of $5.25 to $5.75 a share, up from its prior forecast of $5 to $5.50 a share. Analysts are looking for earnings of $5.40 a share for the year.

JA Solar Earnings In-Line, Raises Guidance...

JA Solar Holdings Co.'s (JASO) fourth-quarter net income rose 34% on a boon in shipments and despite losses from currency fluctuations, which the company said it is addressing going forward.
The company also projected 2008 revenue well above analysts' expectations and boosted its production target for the year. Shares rose to $15.90 during recent premarket trading after closing at $14.58 on Tuesday.

JA Solar's stock had been down more than 40% the past two months. JA Solar, a Chinese manufacturer of high-performance solar cells, posted net income of $13.5 million, or 9 cents a share, compared with $10.1 million, or 11 cents a share, a year earlier. Shares outstanding were 36% higher in the recently ended quarter. Revenue more than tripled to $144.2 million.

The mean estimates of analysts surveyed by Thomson Financial were for earnings of 9 cents a share on revenue of $118 million.

Take Two Raises Guidance...

By raising its annual guidance Tue, video game maker Take-Two Software (TTWO) could force Electronic Arts (ERTS) to hike its $2B bid for the company, argues research firm Wall Street Strategies. Citing a better than expected 1Q and surprisingly strong preorders for a game to be released in a few weeks, Take-Two said it now expects fiscal 2008 earnings of $1.35 to $1.55 a share on revenue of $1.25B to $1.4B.

The company had expected per-share earnings of $1.30 to $1.50. Analysts expected per-share earnings of $1.35 on revenue of $1.36 billion. "Without a doubt the saga surrounding ERTS' bid is about to get a bit more complex," wrote the Wall Street Strategies research firm.

Humana Warns...

Humana (HUM) stock gets crushed again in premarket trading Wed, dragging down the entire managed care sector, after the company cuts its 1Q and 2008 earnings guidance. HUM recently down 26% at $35. The stock fell 24% Tue, after peer WellPoint's (WLP) earnings warning raised fears that unexpectedly high medical costs could mean weakening profits across the health insurance sector.

Aetna falls 6.2% to $40, WellPoint edges down an additional 1.6% to $46.49, UnitedHealth Group (UNH) loses another 10% to $34.51.

Also in premarket, Cigna (CI) falls 12%, Coventry Health Care (CVH) down 7.4%. (MRL).

Caterpillar Reaffirms Forecast...

Caterpillar Sees $60B In Revenue In 2010
Heavy-equipment maker reaffirms its 2008 per-share earnings and revenue forecast, and says it also expects revenues approaching $60 billion by 2010 and per-share earnings growth of 15% to 20% from 2005 through 2012. Shares rise 2% pre-market.

Cleveland Cliffs to Split Stock....

Cleveland-Cliffs Inc. (CLF). The Cleveland, OH-based mining company late Tuesday declared a two-for-one stock split, payable May 15 to shareholders of record as of May 1.

Earnings Due Today....

COMPANIES REPORTING EARNINGS

• American Eagle Outfitters Inc. (AEO). Expected to report Q4 earnings of $0.66 a share, according to analysts polled by Thomson Financial.

• Gymboree Corp. (GYMB). Expected to post Q4 profit of $0.95 a share, up 13.10% from the same quarter last year when the company earned $0.84.

• Men's Wearhouse Inc. (MW). Expected to report Q4 earnings of $0.17 a share.

Today's Top Stories....

• Mortgage applications for week to March 7 fall 1.9% on lower refinancing

• Boeing reiterates 787 schedule after Goldman Sachs warns of further delays - report

• Wyeth withdraws application for EU approval of hot flashes treatment

• Coach names ex-COO of Limited Brands its executive officer, effective March 17

• Kroger cut to 'underweight' by JP Morgan on likely underperformance

• Ruddick upped to 'overweight' at JP Morgan on growth prospects

• Toyota to raise monthly salaries by average 7,900 yen

• AstraZeneca's Seroquel patent infringement trial to start Aug. 11

Tuesday's Summary....

U.S. Markets

Dow +416.7 (+3.55%)
Nasdaq +86.4 (+3.98%)
S&P 500 +47.4 (+3.71%)

News That Moved the Market

Markets Surge. Tuesday's gains were the most since 2003. The market was propelled higher after the Fed announced a new Term Security Lending Facility, allowing borrowers to pledge a large assortment of debt securities as collateral including privately rated AAA mortgage backed securities. The plan will increase liquidity and generate more value for mortgage backed securities, which have become a thinly traded asset. The plan includes also raising the swap lines with the ECB and Swiss National Bank, putting an extra $12 billion into the U.S. markets. The markets opened sharply higher, and finished strong, with financials (+7.4%) leading the charge. Volume was high and for any technical analysis followers, Tuesday's jumps may have also created a double bottom, a very bullish signal.

Wellpoint Causes Health Insurer Sell-Off. Wellpoint (WLP, -28.31%) slashed its full-year guidance to $5.76 - $6.01/share from $6.41/share. The new forecast was well below analysts' estimates and caused a massive sell-off of all the large health insurers; UnitedHealth Group (UNH, -15.2%) and Humana (HUM, -24.7%) finished with massive losses as well.

Quick Tics:

Google's (GOOG, +6.3%) acquisition of DoubleClick was approved by European regulators…

Crude-oil futures ended the session at a new record closing high of $108.75/barrel..

Texas Instruments (TXN, -3.0%) lowered its first-quarter earnings forecast, the company's shares hit a 52-week low.

Wednesday's Notable Earnings

Hot Topic (HOTT) After Close
American Eagle Outfitters Inc (AEO) Before Open

Economic Events:

10:30 AM: Crude Inventories