Thursday, February 14, 2008

Thursday's Market Summary....

U.S. Markets:

Dow -175.26 (-1.40%)
Nasdaq -41.39 (-1.74%)
S&P 500 -18.35 (-1.34%)

News That Moved the Market:

Stocks Fall As Bernanke Predicts Difficult Beginning to 2008. Markets sold off Thursday, as Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke acknowledged that growth in the coming quarters will be slower. Along with Treasury Secretary Paulson, Bernanke testified in front of Congress, saying growth should decrease in 2008, but the Fed and government would work hard to make sure that the rate cuts and economic stimulus will have their intended effects on the U.S. economy. Though none of what was said today was unexpected, it seemed like a good reason for many to take profits from the recent rally.

UBS Dives Into the Red. Swiss bank UBS (UBS, -8.2%) announced a $11.3 billion writedown, confirming the company's first full-year loss in 10 years. UBS added that it still has significant exposure to the mortgage market in the U.S. and more major writedowns were not out of the question.

FGIC Loses Aaa Rating. FGIC Corp., the fourth largest bond insurer, lost its Aaa bond insurance rating at Moody's. The company was about $4 billion short of the amount of capital needed. However, Moody's also said MBIA (MBI, +8.7%) and Ambac (ABK, +12.4%) are better positioned "from a capitalization and business franchise perspective" compared to FGIC, lessening fears other larger bond insurers will share FGIC's fate.

Comcast Brings Back Dividend. Comcast (CMCSA, +8.0%) surged higher after the company reported a 54% increased in earnings and its first dividend in 10 years. The company also sees revenue in 2008 rising 8%-10%.

Tomorrow Notable Earnings:

Abercrombie & Fitch Co.(ANF) Before Open

Economic Events:

8:30 AM: Empire State Mfg Survey
8:30 AM: Import and Export Prices
9:00 AM: Industrial Production
10:00 AM: Consumer Sentiment

Bernanke Sees 'Sluggish' Growth But Pickup In Late '08

Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke keeps the door open to further interest rate reductions, saying downside risks to economic growth remain from housing, employment and credit markets. But he appears more upbeat on economy's prospects for later this year and next when combination of fiscal and monetary stimulus kicks in.

The market obviously hates this guy. Every time he speaks on TV they sell off the market. Before the meeting..the Dow was up 35-50 points. It is now down 138 points.

Abnormal Move: Wellcare

Wellcare (WCG) up 3.70 to $52.29

This has been a wild ride, but this stock is ticking higher on no news this morning. In the past two months, the stock has ticked up (like this) ahead of a contract renewal announcement...each time, filed on Friday after the close.

On Friday, January 11, after the close...the company reported a Medicare contract renewal in 5 states. The following Monday, the stock gapped up 5 and closed 10 points higher on the day. Could we get a repeat??

Jobless Claims Fall....

US weekly jobless claims fell 9,000 to 348,000. The number of people filing new claims for unemployment insurance fell for the second week in a row while the four-week moving average for initial claims rose to its highest level in over two years, the Labor Department said today.

Nvidia Revenues Surge...

Graphics chip-maker Nvidia Corp. (NVDA) posted a 58% jump in fiscal fourth-quarter net income, as a 37% surge in revenue offset rising costs. The fabless semiconductor company reported net income of $257 million, or 42 cents a share, for the quarter ended Jan. 27, compared with $163.5 million, or 27 cents a share, a year earlier. Excluding acquisition and stock-based compensation expense, earnings came to 49 cents a share. Revenue in the latest quarter rose to $1.2 billion from $878.9 million.

Analysts polled by Thomson Financial had expected the Santa Clara, Calif., company to post earnings, excluding items, of 47 cents a share on revenue of $1.19 billion.

NVDA is down 2.85 to $24.15 this morning. It was actually up to $27 yesterday after the close. Looks like an overreaction selloff to me.

Goldman Downgrades Intel....

Shares of Intel Corp. slipped in premarket trading Thursday after Goldman Sachs removed the semiconductor giant's stock from its conviction buy list, citing concerns over the impact of macroeconomic issues on business demand.

Baidu Beats Estimates...

China's #1 search engine, Baidu.com (BIDU), said Q4 earnings grew 79%. EPS of $0.87 on revenue of $79.3M beat analyst estimates of $0.72 on $77.1M in revenue.

Looking ahead, Baidu sees Q1 2008 revenue of $73.1-75.1M, lower than the $77.9M analysts had been looking for. Shares gained almost 5% in AH trading.

ValueClick Revenues Ahead of Estimates...

Internet ad firm ValueClick (VCLK) reported late Wed. Q4 EPS of $0.18, in line with estimates. Revenue of $183.1M was stronger than the $175.77M analysts expected. ValueClick predicted Q1 EPS of $0.15-0.16, lower than consensus of $0.18, and Q1 revenue of $166M-$170M vs. consensus estimates of $175.45M.

Shares were up strongly after the company announced it settled an FTC probe with a $2.9M payment, without conceding that it violated any law.

Back to the Northwest / Delta Deal....

Sources say Air France-KLM will take a stake on unknown size in a combined Delta Air Lines (DAL) and Northwest (NWA) in exchange for a board seat. Delta and Northwest have agreed on major terms, including keeping Delta's name and headquarters, sources say.

Comcast Beats....

Comcast (CMCSA), #1 U.S. cable operator, said Q4 profits jumped 54%. EPS of $0.20 on revenue of $8.01B beat consensus estimates of $0.17 on revenue of $7.9B.

Comcast said it will repurchase another $6.9B in shares by end of 2009; initiated an annual dividend of $0.25; and said 2008 free cash flow should grow at least 20%.

This stock has fallen from a high of $29 in July 07 to yesterday's close of $17.81. It is up to $19.04 premarket.

Paulson Says US Will Avoid Recession...

Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson will tell Congress the U.S. economy is sound, despite expectations of significant housing market softness. The economy will continue to grow, albeit at a slower pace. Current initiatives may help mitigate the situation, "and we remain open to other good ideas as we move forward," he will say, according to prepared notes.

Yahoo offering stake to News Corp., others....

Days after its board rejected a $44.6 billion takeover offer from Microsoft, Yahoo is talking about selling a stake to News Corp. The position that could be more than 20% would allow Yahoo to stay independent while giving News Corp. substantial control over a range of Internet properties and advertising opportunities, according to the Wall Street Journal, which is owned by News Corp.

Yahoo is also talking with Google Inc. and Time Warner Inc.'s AOL.