Tuesday, October 4, 2011

Stocks close with a wild rally....

Final Numbers:

Dow +153
Nas +69
S&P +24 to 1123

Banks came back to close higher, Gold and silver trim their losses, Apple regains a large chunk of it's losses, closes down 2.10 to 372.50.

Morgan Stanley (MS) +1.54
Bank of America (BAC) +0.23
Goldman Sachs (GS) +4.50

This market is exhausting me.  Here's a chart of the S&P intraday:

Stocks bounce at "Bear Market" level...

The 52-week high for the S&P is at 1370.  The talk on TV is that "Official Bear Market Territory" is 20% below that high or at 1096.

Coincidentally, that is just about the same level we are bouncing off of today.

I personally think the "Bear Market Territory" thing is stupid...I've been in the market a long time and never heard of this crap until CNBC made it up three years ago. 

However, so far, it is what it is.  Hopefully it holds up.

At 3:45 pm....

Looks like another short squeeze rally, as stocks have now turned positive on the day.  What a wild ride!!


Dow +9
Nas +28
S&P +6


Apparently sparking the turn higher in stocks the last few minutes is the recycling of news that EU financial ministers are looking into recapitalizing the banks. There aren't any details, just a realization from the leaders that not enough has been done to convince markets the banking system can absorb the hits from the debt crisis.


Sounds like more trader BS to me.

Gold and Silver selling off...

After a one week respite from a steep downtrend, the precious metals are off sharply again today. Gold drops back below $1,600/oz. and silver under $30 (platinum down too).

GLD is down 5.39 to 155.55
SLV is down 1.37 to 28.11

At 3 pm:

Stocks resuming the selloff.  Apple is down 17 points after disappointing the techies by not delivering an iPhone 5.  Not sure why it had to be named iPhone 5, but apparently it did.

Banks are still weak but holding above earlier levels. 

Bank of America (BAC) -0.28 to 5.24
Morgan Stanley (MS) -0.40 to 12.07

With one hour left:

Dow -202
Nas -31
S&P -17 to 1081

Gold and Silver are selling off hard as well.

No iPhone 5 disappoints the street...

Apple (AAPL) introduces the iPhone 4S, to "tepid applause" from an audience hoping for an iPhone 5. At first glance, the device looks similar to the iPhone 4. The 4S will feature an A5 CPU (the iPhone 4 uses an A4 chip), and support faster 3G (HSPA) download speeds. Apple is thus far selling off modestly on the news.

Apple is getting hammered down 11 to 363.50

The selloff has pulled the Nasdaq back down as well. 

12:30 pm update...

Stocks have rebounded after Ben Bernanke expresses confidence that what the Fed is doing (as far as monetary policy goes) will work to allow us to avoid a double dip recession.

Dow -70
Nas +33
S&P +2 to 1101

To me, it looks like a short covering rally.  No telling how high traders can bring some of these stocks or whether the rally can hold.  The key level is 1200 on the S&P.

Earlier Morgan Stanley was selling off, down to 11.58.  It has rebounded back to now up 0.05 to 12.52

RIMM may look for a suitor...

Research In Motion (RIMM +4.3%) spikes on rumors the company has hired an investment banker to consider strategic options. Just last week, Carl Icahn was rumored to be buying a chunk of the stock. Color Eric Savitz skeptical: RIM is rapidly losing smartphone market share, and the PlayBook is going nowhere - just why would anyone want to buy it?

Obama doesn't like BAC's debit card fees...

Pres. Obama weighs in on Bank of America's (BAC) new debit card fee: "You don't have some inherent right just to - you know, get a certain amount of profit... You have to treat [customers] fairly and transparently." The banking industry reacts: "As a direct result of the Durbin Amendment, consumers have started paying for financial services they previously enjoyed free of charge."

11:00 am update...

Looks like we are getting a little bit of buying coming in.  Tech stocks have been the main beneficiaries.

Dow -125
Nas +6
S&P -7

The VIX spiked earlier up to 46.88.  It has since come back down to 44.73

Looks like a buying program came in when the VIX jumped above 46.  Not sure whether this will hold though.

iPhone rumors...

Some of the main iPhone rumors heading into Apple's (AAPL) 1 p.m. ET event: a larger display, an 8MP camera, new voice recognition capabilities, a cheaper prepaid model, a deal with Sprint (S), a thinner/lighter design, a larger, touch-sensitive home button, a 64GB model, an A5 CPU, and a CDMA/GSM "world phone."

Apple is currently down 1.89 to 372.70 ahead of the announcement.

Fortune Brands spins off Jim Beam...

It's only day one of trading for Fortune Brands (FO)-spinoff Beam (BEAM), but already the bourbon company lands on Goldman Sachs' Conviction Buy list.

Though the new company says it's in for the long-haul, analysts aren't buying it. Rabobank's Stephen Rannekleiv says BEAM is a "rare opportunity" for companies looking to acquire major brands like Maker's Mark and Canadian Club.

In other words, they may be looking to sell the company.

Today's Upgrades and Downgrades...

Agrium, Inc. (NYSE: AGU) named Bull of the Day at Zacks.

Agnico-Eagle Mines Ltd. (NYSE: AEM) Raised to Outperform at Credit Suisse.
American Express Company (NYSE: AXP) Cut to Hold at Jefferies.
AMR Corporation (NYSE: AMR) Raised to Outperform at Rodman & Renshaw.
BHP Billiton (NYSE: BHP) Raised to Outperform at Credit Suisse.
Capital One Financial Corp. (NYSE: COF) Cut to Hold at Jefferies.
Chipotle Mexican Grill Inc. (NYSE: CMG) Started as Outperform with $370 target at Credit Suisse.
China Petroleum & Chemical Corp. (NYSE: SNP) Started as Neutral at Credit Suisse.
CNOOC Ltd. (NYSE: CEO) Started as Outperform at Credit Suisse.
The Jones Group Inc. (NYSE: JNY) Value stock of the day at Zacks.
LM Ericsson Telephone Co. (NASDAQ: ERIC) Raised to Buy at Citigroup.
PetroChina Co. Ltd. (NYSE: PTR) Started as Neutral at Credit Suisse.
Riverbed Technology, Inc. (NASDAQ: RVBD) Cut to Equal-Weight at Barclays.
SodaStream International Ltd. (NASDAQ: SODA) Raised to Buy at Deutsche Bank.
Sonoco Products Co. (NYSE: SON) Cut to Hold at Argus.
Stillwater Mining Company (NYSE: SWC) Removed from Focus List ar Credit Suisse.
W.R. Berkley Corp. (NYSE: WRB) named Bear of the Day at Zacks.

At 10:00 am...

The market is looking like it is in crash mode. 

Dow -246
Nas -34
S&P -24 to 1076

Banks are falling hard.

Morgan Stanley (MS) -0.84 to 11.60
Goldman Sachs (GS) -5.40 to 89.80
Bank of America (BAC) -0.30 to 5.23

Gold and Silver are starting to fall now.

GLD -1.54 to 159.43
SLV -0.49 to 29.00

China warns of trade war if U.S. bill passes...

An angry China warned Washington on Tuesday that passage of a bill aimed at forcing Beijing to let its currency rise could lead to a trade war between the world's top two economies.

What's happening today...

Apple (AAPL) is a stock to watch today, with a media event set for today at Apple headquarters at 1pm ET.

Apple will introduce the iPhone 5 at the first big event since Steve Jobs stepped down as chief executive officer.

We'll also watch shares of airlines stocks like AMR (AMR), United Continental (UAL), Delta (DAL), and Southwest (LUV) after those shares took a beating yesterday on worries about the effects of a slowing economy on the industry, and the particular financial problems faced by AMR.

We'll also watch shares of Yahoo (YHOO) as speculation continues about a possible sale or breakup.

A New York Times DealBook report this morning says Yahoo may be worth well over its $17.1 billion market cap if it were to be broken off and sold in pieces.

Good Morning...

Looks like stocks are opening lower again this morning on the heels of two straight horrific days of trading.

The S&P is opening below the 1100 support area and banks are still falling.  Bernanke speaks in front of the Joint Economic Committee of congress at 1 pm today, so be prepared for some market movement at that time.