Wednesday, September 28, 2011

Stocks sell off in last hour....

It looked as if whatever was holding the market up, was pulled away in the last 45 minutes.

Dow -179
Nas -55
S&P -24 to 1151

All groups were lower, but commodities and transports were beaten up the most.

Amazon closed up 5.50 to 229.71
Apple fell three points in the last 30 minutes to close at 397.01
Gold ETF (GLD) fell 4.41 to 156.22 - a new low in the latest move lower

In each of the last two trading sessions, stocks have sold off hard in the 3-4 pm hour.  Today we were up over 120 points early, then closed down 180 on the day.  That is not a good tape.  Another selloff like this tomorrow, and we will move to "full protection mode" again.

Apple tries to hold its ground....

Apple is still trading higher on the day even though the Kindle Fire has been annuounced.  I know Apple's iPad is the pad of choice for those who can afford it, but I don't see how the Fire, priced $300 less than the iPad, is not going to hurt iPad sales.  The customers Apple just lost are the ones who were looking at a Kindle, which is just a book reader, vs. the iPad which does a little too much (camera, microphone, etc.).  Those on the fence will now be hard to convice to spend that extra $300 for the iPad.

Apple currently right at $400.00.  I would not be surprised to see it come under some pressure in the next few weeks.

At 3:00 pm....

Stocks have turned lower in the last hour.

Dow -41
Nas -20
S&P -9

Commodities lower as are gold and silver.

Amazon still up 8.53 to 232.80
IBM up 2.05 to 179.76

Direct TV gets upgraded...

Shares of DirecTV (DTV +1.4%) get a lift from JPMorgan with an Overweight rating, as the firm takes a dimmer view of rival Dish Network (DISH -1.5%). Analysts initiate DISH with a Neutral rating, remaining unimpressed with its new Movie Pass promotion seen by the company as a Netflix (NFLX -0.2%)-killer. "We don't believe the service poses a compelling alternative to broadly compete with Netflix at this point."

Comscore works its way back...

Comscore (SCOR) stock is rising again today.  It is up 0.80 to 18.18.

I know this company well as its headquarters is right next door to me.  They have been actively hiring.  They perform internet research and put out reports on internet trafic demographics, which they then sell to companies wishing to target their audience by advertising on the most appropriate websites...makes sense...and this company is growing.

The company came out with a less than inspiring quarter on August 4 and the stock dropped from 21 to 12.  Since then the stock has slowly climbed back to 18.  Long term, this is a good one...

Gold and Silver resume selloff....

After taking a day off, Gold and Silver are selling off again.

Gold ETF (GLD) is down 3.50 to 157.13 - a break below 157 would be a new low in the latest leg lower for gold.


Silver ETF (SLV) is down 1.93 to 29.24

Barnes and Noble selling off...

So far the big loser with the new Kindle Fire release has been Barnes and Noble (BKS).  The new Kindle aims directly at taking market share away from Barnes and Noble's Nook.  I think the new Kindle will also hurt sales of the iPad to those new customers without the big bucks.  Time will tell.

AMZN is up 10.04 to 234.20
AAPL is up 1.24 to 400.50
BKS is down 1.65 to 11.56

Stocks mixed....

At 12:30 pm, stocks are split about 50-50 on my screen.

Dow +38
Nas -1
S&P unch

Amazon now up 10.88 to 235.05
Apple is not selling off yet: +1.34 to 400.60

Other stocks moving higher:

Chipotle (CMG) +3.97 to 324.58
Perrigo (PRGO) +1.32 to 99.11
Green Mountain (GMCR) +2.13 to 107.14
Interdigital (IDCC) +3.24 to 54.73
IBM +2.31 to 180.00

First Solar downgraded to "Sell"...

First Solar (FSLR) falls after Cantor Fitzgerald reiterates a Sell, and lowers its PT to $55. Cantor sees continued oversupply in the solar market hurting First Solar's sales and pricing power. Nonetheless, the firm thinks First Solar is well-positioned to profit long-term, as the market consolidates, and subsidy reductions increase the value of its cost advantage.

Let me get this straight:  It's a "SELL", however, long term they are well-positioned.

What does that mean???

FSLR is down 3.58 to 68.68 today.

Market turns negative...

At 11:10 am, stocks are selling off from their highs...

Dow -10
Nas -11
S&P -4

Big mover of the day is Amazon, which is helping tech stocks move higher.

AMZN is currently up 7.75 to 231.90

Netflix subscriber cancellations moderating???

Netflix (NFLX) shares move higher, attributed to comments from Piper Jaffray suggesting subscriber cancellations are moderating: "While we continue to expect elevated churn over the next few quarters, the risk of a mass exodus appears to be moderating" following its latest survey. Piper sets a $300 price target on the shares.

Netflix is currently up 2.00 to 129.50

Amazon Unveils the Kindle Fire...

Amazon (AMZN +3.3%) unveils its much-anticipated tablet. Called the Kindle Fire (as previously reported), the device will feature a 7-inch display and cost only $199, $50 less than the Nook Color (BKS -6.3%) and $300 less than the cheapest iPad (AAPL +0.5%). The tablet will run on Android (GOOG), but nonetheless act like a "souped-up Kindle."

Additionally, the company is adding a touchscreen model to its traditional Kindle line, called the Kindle Touch. A Wi-Fi-only version of the Kindle Touch will sell for $99, while a 3G version will cost $149, and offer lifetime wireless data in 100 countries.

Today's Upgrades and Downgrades...

These are some of this Wednesday’s top analyst upgrades, downgrades, and initiations seen having an impact from Wall Street research calls.

Apple Inc. (NASDAQ: AAPL) Started as Buy with $495 target at Janney.
Caterpillar Inc. (NYSE: CAT) Started as Overweight at Barclays.
Charter Communications Inc. (NASDAQ: CHTR) Started as Overweight at JPMorgan.
Colgate-Palmolive Co. (NYSE: CL) Cut to Hold at Citigroup.
Comcast Corporation (NASDAQ: CMCSA) Started as Overweight at JPMorgan.
Comerica Incorporated (NYSE: CMA) Raised to Market Perform at Wells Fargo.
Deere & Co. (NYSE: DE) Started as Overweight at Barclays.
DIRECTV (NASDAQ: DTV) Started as Overweight at JPMorgan.
Imperial Holdings, LLC (NYSE: IFT) Cut to Market Perform at FBR.
Kimberly-Clark Corporation (NYSE: KMB) Cut to Hold at Citigroup.
Lam Research Corporation (NASDAQ: LRCX) Started as Overweight at JPMorgan.
Men’s Wearhouse Inc. (NYSE: MW) named value stock of the day at Zacks.
Novellus Systems, Inc. (NASDAQ: NVLS) Started as Overweight at JPMorgan.
NutriSystem Inc. (NASDAQ: NTRI) Started as Buy at Auriga.
Polo Ralph Lauren Corp. (NYSE: RL) Cut to Hold at Citigroup.
Teva Pharmaceutical Industries Limited (NASDAQ: TEVA) Started as Buy at Canaccord Genuity.
VeriFone Systems, Inc (NYSE: PAY) Started as Buy at Argus.
Warner Chilcott plc (NASDAQ: WCRX) Started as Buy at Canaccord Genuity

Stocks open higher....

15 minutes in...the averages are higher as there seems to be some excitement surrounding the unveiling of the new Amazon tablet...

Dow +102
Nas +17
S&P +7

Gold is unchanged, silver selling off slightly. 

Microsoft to get in on Android profits...

Microsoft (MSFT) and Samsung (SSNLF.PK) have signed an agreement that will result in Microsoft receiving royalties on Samsung's Android sales, and the companies partnering to develop/market Windows Phone. Given Samsung's estimated 19% share of the mobile phone market, this could be a huge win for Microsoft.

JP Morgan lowers Walgreens price target...

JPMorgan lowers its price target on shares of Walgreen (WAG) to $35. Though the drugstore chain reported a Q4 earnings beat, the dispute with Express Scripts (ESRX) weighs heavy: "We remain cautious on WAG shares, given the significant potential earnings hit related to the ESRX dispute should there be no resolution."

My guess is that ESRX and WAG will settle this dispute and both represent a good buying opportunity here.  Here is a look at the charts on each:



Chesapeake Energy announces strong well production...

Shares of Chesapeake Energy (CHK) soar 6.4% premarket after the firm announces "strong initial production" from wells in Ohio and Pennsylvania, helping boost the company's guidance. The natural gas and oil driller now sees increasing net liquid production 50% by the end 2012.

A La Carte Cable???

After years of resisting, cable providers are now working on a plan to allow customers to subscribe to channels on an individual, or "a la carte," basis. Providers have warmed to the idea thanks to soaring content costs and growing subscriber losses, Cable network owners such as Disney (DIS) and Time Warner (TWX) can be expected to fiercely oppose the idea.

If cable providers are able to make the transition, it could be devastating to a network owner such as DIS, which reportedly gets $4/month per subscriber for ESPN, whether or not a subscriber cares for it.

Groupon launches rewards program...

Groupon's (GRPN) sputtering progress towards an IPO doesn't slow it down from product innovation, as it launches a new product - Groupon Reward - designed to track consumer spending and give merchants an easy way to reward customer loyalty. The program lets customers unlock perks after spending thresholds are met at participating businesses.

Personally, I have only seen two Groupon offers that even peaked my interest...that was until I found out I had to pay for them in advance.  No Thanks!!!

Best Buy to hire less workers for Holidays...

Maybe bad news for the economy, but clearly bad news for Best Buy (BBY), the company will hire just 15K seasonal workers for the holidays vs. 29K last year. CEO Brian Dunn says the company is not expecting "a meaningful move in the economic environment."

Price of new Amazon tablet could be big attraction...

Amazon (AMZN) is expected to launch its long-awaited tablet computer today, sporting a low-enough price to give Apple Inc's iPad some serious competition for the first time.

Amazon has a chance to be successful with this as they already have a huge customer base with the Kindle, whose owners would be very interested in this. 

One year ago....

Meredith Whitney made her alarming call on Municipal Bonds, claiming that there would be mass defaulting across the country.  The call led to a massive selloff on Municipal Bonds causing Muni Bond Funds to lose substantial value.

Turns out she has been wrong (at least so far), and the panic selling presented a huge buying opportunity for those who had cash.

In fact Muni Bonds were the number one place to invest over the last year.  Thanks Meredith!!!

Here is a chart of the Van Kampen Investment Grade Municipal Bond Fund (VGM) that shows the damage caused one year ago:

Good Morning...

The US stock market's momentum could be characterized as either positive or negative this morning, depending on your viewpoint: the major averages are riding a three day winning streak, and the Dow is coming off its best three-session gain since August 24th.

But the Dow also saw a 300+ point gain cut by more than half by the time the session ended, the first time that's happened since October of 2008.

Among the earnings reports set to be issued this morning: the latest number from Olive Garden parent Darden Restaurants (DRI), retailer Family Dollar (FDO), and spicemaker McCormick (MKC).

There are no reports of note set for release after the closing bell.

BP (BP) and Transocean (RIG) are among our stocks to watch today, following word of recent oil sheen sightings in the Gulf of Mexico near the capped BP Macondo well site.

The Coast Guard has now said BP's well is not suspected as the source, but that it could be from the wreckage of the Deepwater Horizon rig...whew, I bet BP is letting out a big sigh of relief on that news.