Thursday, January 24, 2008

Daily Summary....

U.S. Market Summary:

Dow +108.44 (+0.88%)
Nasdaq +44.51 (+1.92%)
S&P 500 +13.47 (+1.01%)

News That Moved the Market

Stimulus Plan Set. Markets ended the day higher, as government officials announced President Bush and House members had come to an agreement on the economic stimulus plan. The new plan will give rebates to 117 million American families and help businesses purchase new equipment. Essentially, it will give the average American a $300 rebate, with people earning higher incomes getting less, and families with children getting more. It will also increase the mortgage size Fannie Mae (FNM, -1.7%) and Freddie Mac (FRE, -1.6%) will be allowed to purchase to $625,000 from $417,000, increasing the availability for financing for higher-valued homes. Some investors were disappointed the rebates were not higher, and also questioned why the government was going out of its way to help Americans buy $600,000 homes.

Existing Homes Sales Down, But So Are Inventories. The National Association of Realtors reported existing home sales dropped 2.2% last month, but said unsold home inventories actually decreased. In all, single-family home sales fell 13% last year, the worst drop since 1982.

Nokia Surges on Q4 Performance. Cell phone maker Nokia (NOK, +12.5%) jumped after reporting a 57% increase in earnings and noting strong demand in emerging markets. The company's global market share now stands at 40%.

Rogue Trader at SocGen Loses $7.1 Billion. Societe Generale, the second largest bank in France, surprised the world by announcing a single trader concealed positions and made up transactions leading to a $7.1 billion loss for the bank. When the fraud was discovered, the bank liquidated all positions, but the news created questions about SocGen's risk management controls. SocGen, which trades in Paris, fell 3.7%.

AT&T Reports Higher Profits. AT&T (T, -2.6%) said Thursday Q4 earnings jumped 62%, propelled by acquisitions and wireless growth. The company still had mixed news for its traditional phone service, losing more customers than expected.

Microsoft Jumps in After Hours Trading.Microsoft (MSFT, +4.1%; +5.0% A.H.) pushed futures higher after the close, beating estimates and raising profits and sales targets for the year. Strong sales in Windows and Xbox 360 consoles were key drivers in the solid report.

Tomorrow Notable Earnings:

Caterpillar (CAT)
Honeywell (HON)

Deal Completed for Tax Rebates in June....

Congressional leaders completed a deal Thursday with the White House on an economic stimulus package that would give most tax filers refunds of $600 to $1,200, and more if they have children.

House Speaker Nancy Pelosi and Republican Leader John Boehner scheduled a news conference for 1:30 p.m. EST to announce the $150 billion package, hammered out in a week of intense negotiations with Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson. Congressional aides, speaking on condition of anonymity because the deal had not yet been announced, said they hope the checks could go out as early as June.

Individuals who pay income taxes would get up to $600, working couples $1,200 and those couples with children an additional $300 per child under the deal. Workers who make at least $3,000 but don't pay taxes would get $300 rebates.

The rebate part of the plan would cost about $100 billion, aides said. The package also includes close to $50 billion in business tax cuts.

The rebates would phase out gradually for individuals whose income exceeds $75,000 and couples with incomes above $150,000, aides said. Individuals with incomes up to $87,000 and couples up to $174,000 would get partial rebates. The caps rise higher for individuals and couples with children.

Companies Reporting Earnings Today...

• Amgen Inc. (AMGN). Expected to report Q4 earnings of $0.97 per share, an increase of 7.67% from the same quarter last year when the company earned $0.90.

• AT&T Inc. (T). Expected to report Q4 earnings of $0.71 per share per share, an increase of 16.56% from the same quarter last year when the company earned $0.61.

• Broadcom Corp. (BRCM). Expected to report Q4 earnings of $0.32 per share, up 2.90% from the same quarter last year when the company earned $0.31.

• Consolidated Edison Inc. (ED). Expected to report Q4 earnings of $0.61 per share, down 21.54% from the same quarter last year when the company earned $0.78.

• E-Trade Financial Corp. (ETFC). Expected to report Q4 loss of $2.91 per share.

• Kimberly-Clark Corp. (KMB). Expected to report Q4 earnings of $1.11 per share, an increase of 8.06% from the same quarter last year when the company earned $1.03.

• Microsoft Corp. (MSFT). Expected to report Q2 earnings of $0.46 a share, up 75.77% from the same quarter last year when the company earned $0.26.

• Northrop Grumman Corp. (NOC). Expected to report Q4 earnings of $1.31 per share, up 1.78% from the same quarter last year when the company earned $1.29.

• Sun Microsystems Inc. (JAVA). Expected to report Q2 earnings of $0.30 per share, up 86.88% from the same quarter last year when the company earned $0.16.

• Union Pacific Corp. (UNP). Expected to report Q4 earnings of $1.77 per share, down 0.67% from the same quarter last year when the company earned $1.78.

• US Airways Group (LCC). Expected to report Q4 loss of $0.76 per share.

AT&T Net Jumps 62% on Wireless Gains...

Earnings climb to $3.14 billion, or 51¢ a share, helped by strength in its wireless business, which adds 2.68 million subscribers. Subscriber-growth slows markedly in its broadband and video segments.

Potash (POT) Posts Record Earnings....

Potash Corp. of Saskatchewan (POT) posted its highest quarterly profit on record in the fourth quarter and sees first-quarter and 2008 earnings well above expectations as the fertilizer maker increased prices amid rising demand for its products. Saskatoon, Saskatchewan-based Potash posted net income of $376.8 million, or $1.16 a share, up from $186 million, or 58 cents a share, a year earlier.

The latest quarter's results include a $26.5 million charge related to investments and a $35.4 million decrease in income-tax expense and future tax liability. Prior-year results included $31 million in income-tax and foreign-currency gains.

Revenue surged 40% to $1.43 billion. The mean estimates of analysts polled by Thomson Financial were for earnings of 98 cents a share on $1.24 billion in revenue. Gross margin rose to 37.4% from 29.3%.

Potash is up 10 premarket to $130. The stock is down from a high of $152 hit on January 15.

Treasury Yields Spike Higher....

This morning, the yield on the 10-year Treasury note is spiking higher to 3.58%. The yield bottomed out yesterday at 3.28%. That is a big move for Treasury yields.

Yields fell for two reasons:

1. a flight to safety...as the stock market sold off over the past three weeks

2. in response to talk that the economy is slipping into a recession.

This morning...the spike higher in rates means money is coming back out of "safe" treasury investments...into the stock market. Let's keep an eye on yields, as a move higher would be more healthy for stocks.

Wal-Mart to get into Pharmacy Benefit Management Business???

In a speech Wednesday before 7,000 Wal-Mart store managers at a meeting in Kansas City, Mo., Chief Executive Lee Scott said Wal-Mart is initiating a pilot program to help "select employers ... manage how they process and pay prescription claims."

Pharmacy-benefit managers, or PBMs, are the companies behind the cards that insured patients present at drugstores in order to fill their prescriptions. Most U.S. employers contract with PBMs to provide prescription drug coverage to their workers, and in exchange, the PBMs promise to negotiate lower prices from retail pharmacies and obtain rebates from drug manufacturers. PBMs also own their own mail-order pharmacies, and increasingly make much of their profits from big mark-ups on generic drugs. A record number of blockbuster drugs are going generic, fueling strong profits and rising revenues among the PBMs.

CVS Caremark Corp. (CVS) is expected to report revenue of $76.13 billion for 2007, while Medco Health Solutions Inc. (MHS) is expected to post revenue of $44.7 billion and Express Scripts Inc. (ESRX) $18.4 billion, according to Morgan Stanley. Combined, the three companies processed or filled 387 million prescriptions in the third quarter of 2007.

Wal-Mart could take a chunk of that.

BUY: Stryker Corp. (SYK)

Stryker Corp. (SYK). The Kalamazoo, Mich-based medical device maker said late Wednesday fourth-quarter net income rose to $276.1 million, or 66 cents a share, from $227.9 million, or 55 cents a share, a year earlier, due in part to increased sales. The medical technology company's sales rose to $1.66 billion from $1.4 billion a year earlier.

The company expects 2008 earnings from continuing operations of about $2.88. The company added it remains optimistic about growth in the orthopedic market and expects to meet analysts' profit forecasts this year.

Stryker has been a consistent performer since it broke out of a two year base late in 2006. The stock trades currently at $67.....down from a high of $76.89. The company make orthopedic implants and artificial knee and shoulder joints... As Baby Boomers age, and their joints start to fail from years of workouts...Stryker should benefit.