Tuesday, September 13, 2011

Insider transactions are bullish...

Consider a ratio of the total number of shares recently sold by insiders of all publicly traded corporations in the U.S., to the number of shares they purchased.

According to the Vickers Weekly Insider Report, published by Argus Research, the average level of this ratio over the last four decades is between 2-to-1 and 2.5-to-1. They therefore consider it to be bullish whenever this ratio drops below that long-term average.

The ratio for insider transactions last week, according to the latest Vickers Weekly Insider Report, was 1.27-to-1. The eight-week average of this ratio, which smooths out the week-to-week volatility, is an even more bullish 1.03-to-1.

This is the lowest level for the eight-week ratio since late 2008 and early 2009. The bull market, of course, began in March 2009.

Here is the longer term chart of Insider Sales vs. Buys:
 

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