The Bearish Victory.....

by Jeff Miller

The disparity between expectations and data continues. Those with a bearish bent argue that there is already a recession, it will be terrible, it is not priced into the market, earnings estimates must move much lower, and there will be a general calamity on the scale of the 70's stagflation or even the Great Depression. Wow!

When stocks move lower, it seems to prove the point. This is most interesting and worth some thought.

Anyone who claims to provide a market edge, almost by definition, must find occasions when the market is wrong and the analyst has a superior viewpoint. The most bearish economic pundits now get to claim victory -- even if the economy never enters a recession!

It is not necessary to be right on the facts to be right on the market. As the market moves lower, there is a building sentiment that it "must test the January lows." This advice is usually offered in a deep and stern voice. If enough people believe it, it happens. It is seen as proof of the economic forecasts.

We are now a few points away from those lows in the S&P 500 and even closer in the Nasdaq.


Exactly my thoughts....