Wednesday, March 26, 2008

Akeena Solar Poised for Growth...

Akeena Solar's (AKNS) shares should benefit from top line growth of its solar power system integration business, driven by increasing exposure in key markets and additional acquisitions, Merriman Curhan Ford & Co. says; starts AKNS at buy.

Firm says AKNS is positioned to generate high margin recurring revenue through licensing of its Andalay solar panel racking system, which could expand gross margins beyond average integration margins of 20% and lower solar power installation costs; adds US expansion could allow AKNS to double its revenue in FY08.

Clear Channel Deal in Jeopardy...

The planned $19 billion privatization of the nation's largest radio broadcaster looks increasingly likely to fall through as the private-equity firms and banks backing the transaction failed to resolve their differences over final financing terms.

Tuesday, March 25, 2008

Tuesday's Summary....

U.S. Markets

Dow -16.04 (-0.13%)
Nasdaq +14.30 (+0.61%)
S&P 500 +3.11 (-0.23%)

News That Moved the Market

Mixed Day After Weak Consumer Confidence Reading. Markets ended the day mostly flat despite some weak economic data. A little after the opening bell, the Conference Board announced that Consumer Confidence hit a 5-year low this month, coming in at 64.5. Economists were expecting a reading of 73.5. In addition, the S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Index showed a 10.7% drop in prices, the largest drop in the index's history. Despite the bleak data, sellers were unable to keep control, and eventually a broad-based recovery pushed indices back to even. All sectors eventually finished with gains.

Clear Channel Deal Near Collapse. Late in the day, The Wall Street Journal Reported the Clear Channel (CCU, -5.5% day; -20.9% A.H.) $19 billion sale to Bain Capital and Thomas H. Lee Partners is in real danger of falling through. The deal was scheduled to close this week, but lenders, who are struggling through a tight credit market, are not comfortable with the agreement and may pull out.

Monsanto Shares Sprout. Monsanto (MON, +9.9%) increased its earnings estimates for 2008 to $3.38-$3.48/share, well ahead of the $2.87/share analyst were expecting. "Our growth over the next five years will be built on our seeds-and-traits platform, and we've already exceeded a number of milestones that put us ahead of our plan to deliver consistent, sustainable growth," Chairman Hugh Grant said.

Quick Tics:

Merrill Lynch (MER, -1.1%) downgraded Banc of America (BAC, -3.5%) to "Sell" from "Neutral"…

Tech Stocks outperformed the market, getting a boost from Citi's (C, +0.6%) upgrade of Yahoo (YHOO, +4.4%) to a "Buy" rating…

the S&P 500 is up 7.4% since last Monday.

Tomorrow Notable Earnings

Deutsche Bank (DB) Time Not Supplied
Oracle (ORCL) After Close

Economic Events:

8:30 AM: Durable Goods Orders
10:00 AM: New Home Sales
10:30 AM: Crude Inventories

Weakness Seen at Harley...

Soleil analysts say traffic at Harley-Davidson (HOG) stores has been down for several months, leading them to believe management's 2008 guidance is "too optimistic."

UBS Lowers Google's Price Target...

UBS still sees "many mid-to-longer-term positive potential catalysts" for Google (GOOG), but cuts revenue, margin and EPS estimates, saying Street views don't "adequately reflect decelerating volume growth" in its paid clicks ad business. Firm cuts price target to $570.

The stock closed yesterday at $460.

So, let me get this straight.....They still expect the stock to go up $110 points or 25% in the next 12 months....and I'm sure the stock will take a hit today....

Monsanto Raises Guidance....

Monsanto Co. (MON) Tuesday raised its fiscal 2008earnings guidance to $3.15 to $3.25 a share from its previously-issued view of$2.70 to $2.80 a share. For the second quarter, the company forecast earnings of $1.75 a share. The mean estimate of analysts polled by Thomson Financial is for 2008earnings of $2.87 a share and second-quarter earnings of $1.35 a share.

Monsanto expects as-reported earnings of $3.38 to $3.48 a share, including a22 cent settlement gain, for 2008 and as-reported earnings of $1.98 a share,including a 23 cent settlement gain, for the second quarter.

In addition, Monsanto said it now expects free cash flow of about $1.4billion for 2008, up from its prior guidance of $900 million to $1 billion. Thecompany expects net cash provided by operating activities of $2.45 billion, andnet cash required by investing activities of about $1.05 billion for 2008.

"Leading corn market share positions, accelerated biotechnology traitpenetration and new value generated by Roundup and other glyphosate-basedherbicides have led Monsanto Company to well exceed its expectations forsecond-quarter results and to raise its full-year guidance for ongoingearnings-per-share and free cash flow," the company said.

Ag stocks are flying premarket as a result......

Earnings Due Today....

COMPANIES REPORTING EARNINGS

• Fortress Investment Group (FIG). Expected to report Q4 earnings of $0.17 per share, according to analysts polled by Thomson Financial.

• Jabil Circuit Inc. (JBL). Expected to post Q2 earnings of $0.18 per share, up 27.86% from the same quarter last year when the company earned $0.14 a share.

Today's Top Stories....

TOP STORIES

• Bank of America cut to 'sell' from 'neutral' at Merrill Lynch

• Goldman Sachs in talks for stake in British hedge fund Trafalgar - report

• Yahoo raised to 'buy' at Citi, tgt hiked to $34

• Capital One Financial cut to 'underperform' at Friedman, Billings, Ramsey

• Public Storage cut to 'neutral' from 'buy' at Banc of America

• Frontline shares jump in Oslo on possible bid for Overseas Shipholding

• Tiffany cut to 'perform' from 'outperform' at Oppenheimer

• D.R. Horton upgraded to 'strong buy' from 'mkt outperform' at JMP Sec.

• Global Payments, Planet Payment tie up for 'Pay in Your Currency' in China

• BHP Billiton resumes work at Neptune facility in Gulf of Mexico

Looking for a Natural Gas Play???

Chesapeake energizes outlook. Natural gas company Chesapeake Energy (CHK) boosted its production outlook for 2008-9, citing higher recovery expectations and increased drilling activity. It also announced a new discovery in Louisiana that could benefit the company more than any other play to date. CHK will move from 4 to 10 rigs by year-end and add more in 2009.

To facilitate additional drilling, it will increase capital expenditure by $275 million and $675 million for 2008 and 2009. In a departure, it said it is now developing four oil projects. A note of caution from energy analyst David Heikkinen: "Whenever we hear an increase in activity levels by the largest North American driller, that ought to bear a bit of cauti on for the gas markets."

Phillips Van Heusen Beats but Guides Lower...

Phillips-Van Heusen Corp. late Mondayreported fourth-quarter net earnings of $30.3 million, or 55 cents a share,above the 53-cent mean estimate of analysts polled by Thomson Financial. Net income in the year-earlier quarter was $26.8 million, or 47 cents ashare.

Revenue for the quarter ended Feb. 3 rose to $507 million from $487.6million a year earlier, versus the mean Street view of $587.5 million. Excluding the impact of the retail calendar shift and the extra week ofrevenue, revenue growth in the quarter would have been 20%, the New York-basedapparel and accessories company said. Phillips-Van Heusen expects first-quarter earnings per share of 86 cents to88 cents on revenue of around $615 million to $625 million.

The company sees a full-year per-share profit of $3.30 to $3.40 on revenueof about $2.6 billion. The mean analyst estimate is for first-quarter earnings 89 cents on revenueof $620.7 million and fiscal 2008 earnings of $3.47 on revenue of $2.43 billion.

Comverse Technology Receives Wells Notice...

Comverse Technology Inc. said lateMonday it has received a "Wells notice" from the Securities and ExchangeCommission, notifying Comverse that the SEC staff plans to recommend that theagency bring a civil action against the company. New York-based Comvere said the Wells notice relates to the SEC'sinvestigation of Comverse's past stock option grant practices and certainunrelated accounting matters.

Comverse will have the opportunity to respond before the staff makes aformal recommendation to the SEC regarding what action, if any, should bebrought.

Valero Projects a Miss...

Valero Energy, which in January saw improving refining market conditions, projects 1Q per-share earnings well below analyst estimates amid tight margins and outages at several plants. Shares fall 5% late.

Tata Motors Buys Jaguar and Land Rover....

Tata Motors, India's biggest automaker, buys Ford Motor 's Jaguar and Land Rover luxury brands for $2.65 billion, according to reports from an Indian television channel. Tata Motors will sign a deal in London later today.

Monday, March 24, 2008

Monday's Trading Summary...

U.S. Markets

Dow +187.32 (+1.52%)
Nasdaq +68.64 (+3.04%)
S&P 500 +20.37 (+1.53%)

News That Moved the Market

Markets Jump After J.P. Morgan Ups Bid. Bear Stearns (BSC, +88.8%) nearly doubled in trading today on news that J.P. Morgan (JPM, +1.3%) increased its bid for the troubled bank to $10/share from $2/share, pushing the new purchase price for the Bear to over $1 billion. The new version of the deal also stipulates that J.P. Morgan will be responsible for the first $1 billion in losses associated with its purchase of Bear assets, while the Fed will fund another $29 billion. J.P. Morgan also will buy 40% of Bear stock without a shareholder vote, making it extremely difficult for anyone to block the takeover. The markets rallied sharply right after the news broke, as many took this as a further sign that financials may have turned a corner. The financial sector was up as much as 3.4% today, before losing steam at the end of the day to finish up 0.7%.
XM and Sirius Merger Get DOJ's Approval. Sirius Satellite Radio's (SIRI, +8.6%) $4.59 billion bid for XM Satellite Radio (XMSR, +15.5%) was approved by the U.S. Department of Justice, after the DOJ concluded broadcast radio and MP3 Players provided enough competition to avoid anti-trust issues. The satellite radio companies are now waiting for a decision from the Federal Communication Commission.

Existing Homes Sales Increase 2.9%. Existing home sales unexpectedly increased to an adjusted annual rate of 5.03 million. The figure was well ahead of the 4.85 million economists were anticipating. Inventories fell to 9.6 months, the lowest level since August. Median home prices were down 8% from last year.

Quick Tics:

Tiffany & Co. (TIF, +10.5%) enjoyed its best gain in 7 years after a better than expected earnings report…

The Federal Housing Finance Board authorized Federal Home Loan Banks to double their purchases of mortgage backed securities.

Tomorrow Notable Earnings

Jabil Circuit, Inc. (JBL) After Close

Economic Events:

10:00 AM: Consumer Confidence

WalMart Breaking out!!!

I thought we were in a recession....

Wal-Mart (WMT) is currently up .56 to $53.79.

The stock has been flying since last Wednesday. It is hitting 4 year highs as we speak.

Technical Alert: ISRG

Intuitive Surgical (ISRG) is up 27 to $327.70.

The stock is breaking higher out of a classic "cup and handle" formation. It has some resistance at $335, after that it's off to the races.

ISRG reports earnings on April 17. They have already guided higher on that earnings number. The stock also moved up to #1 on the Top 100 stocks list put out weekly by Investor's Business Daily.

Walgreen's Net Income Rises 5.2%..

Walgreen's (WAG) - Drug store operator's 2Q net income increases to $685.9 million, or 69¢ a share, amid an 11.1% increase in prescription drug sales. Revenue rises 10% to $15.39 billion, while total same-store sales increase 4.7%. Shares rise 3% pre-market.

Average Wall Street Bonus Drops 1.6%...

Despite the massive write-downs, subprime mess and credit crunch seeping out of Wall Street the average bonus fell only 1.6% in 2007, according to a survey by WallStreetComps.com. The average was $344,683, down from $350,349 in 2006.

That's it???

JP Morgan to Boost Bid for Bear Stearns???

JPMorgan (JPM) CEO Jamie Dimon is in talks for a $10/share deal that would quintuple its original $2/share offer for Bear Stearns (BSC). Dimon hopes the move will placate angry shareholders, who vowed to fight the original deal. The Fed is balking at the price, because it doesn't want the public to perceive the deal as a bailout. Bear's board also moved to authorize a 39.5% stake sale to JP Morgan, which would give it an upper hand in gaining majority shareholder approval. Dimon may also be motivated by a need to change the original agreement, which inadvertently left JPM on the hook for Bear losses even if the deal fails.

Thursday, March 20, 2008

This Market is a Little Schizophrenic....

U.S. Markets

Dow +261.66 (+2.16%)
Nasdaq +48.15 (+2.18%)
S&P 500 +31.09 (+2.39%)

News That Moved the Market

Good Thursday. We will not know for at least a couple days if this is simply a bear market rally or an indication that markets actually hit a bottom last week, but it would be difficult to deny the market looked strong today. On solid volume, stocks were bid up throughout the day, helped by more good news coming out of the financial sector. Fannie Mae (FNM, +11.5%) and Freddie Mac (FRE, +9.0%) were upgraded to Outperform from Market Perform at Keefe, Bruyette & Woods. The Fed also announced it has expanded acceptable collateral for its auction of Treasuries to include collateralized mortgage obligations (CMOs) and AAA rated commercial mortgage-backed securities. The Fed will basi cally be exchanging highly liquid Treasuries for illiquid assets. The first auction will take place March 27th, with an offering of $75 billion for a term of 28 days.

Commodities Slide. With the U.S. dollar showing some strength, most commodities fell for the second day in a row. Crude traded below $100/barrel during the session before closing down $0.70 to $101.84. Gold fell $25.30 to $912.22/ounce.

Investors Jump Out of CIT. CIT Group (CIT, -17.2%), the largest commercial finance company in the U.S., was forced to tap its $7.3 billion credit line to repay debt. After a ratings downgrade, the company was unable to raise funds through commercial paper. CEO Jeffrey Peek said the CIT may be forced to sell assets and is looking for a "strategic funding partner."

Quick Tics:

The Philly Fed, a leading manufacturing indicator, came in at -17.1, a better than expected reading…

G.E. (GE, +5.3%) received an upgrade to "Buy" from "Hold" from Merrill Lynch (MER, +13.0%)...
Citigroup (C, +10.2%) will layoff 2,000 investment bankers and traders.


Markets Closed Tomorrow For Good Friday.