Thursday, March 20, 2008

This Market is a Little Schizophrenic....

U.S. Markets

Dow +261.66 (+2.16%)
Nasdaq +48.15 (+2.18%)
S&P 500 +31.09 (+2.39%)

News That Moved the Market

Good Thursday. We will not know for at least a couple days if this is simply a bear market rally or an indication that markets actually hit a bottom last week, but it would be difficult to deny the market looked strong today. On solid volume, stocks were bid up throughout the day, helped by more good news coming out of the financial sector. Fannie Mae (FNM, +11.5%) and Freddie Mac (FRE, +9.0%) were upgraded to Outperform from Market Perform at Keefe, Bruyette & Woods. The Fed also announced it has expanded acceptable collateral for its auction of Treasuries to include collateralized mortgage obligations (CMOs) and AAA rated commercial mortgage-backed securities. The Fed will basi cally be exchanging highly liquid Treasuries for illiquid assets. The first auction will take place March 27th, with an offering of $75 billion for a term of 28 days.

Commodities Slide. With the U.S. dollar showing some strength, most commodities fell for the second day in a row. Crude traded below $100/barrel during the session before closing down $0.70 to $101.84. Gold fell $25.30 to $912.22/ounce.

Investors Jump Out of CIT. CIT Group (CIT, -17.2%), the largest commercial finance company in the U.S., was forced to tap its $7.3 billion credit line to repay debt. After a ratings downgrade, the company was unable to raise funds through commercial paper. CEO Jeffrey Peek said the CIT may be forced to sell assets and is looking for a "strategic funding partner."

Quick Tics:

The Philly Fed, a leading manufacturing indicator, came in at -17.1, a better than expected reading…

G.E. (GE, +5.3%) received an upgrade to "Buy" from "Hold" from Merrill Lynch (MER, +13.0%)...
Citigroup (C, +10.2%) will layoff 2,000 investment bankers and traders.


Markets Closed Tomorrow For Good Friday.

Today's Upgrades...

Morgan Stanley (MS) by Punk, Ziegel & Co
Rent-A-Center (RCII) by Stifel Nicolaus
Abbott Labs (ABT) by Wachovia
Global Industries (GLBL) by CapitalOne southcoast
TeleTech (TTEC) by Wachovia
Netflix (NFLX) by Cantor Fitzgerald
Zimmer Hldgs (ZMH) by Lehman Brothers

Fannie Mae (FNM) by Keefe Bruyette
Freddie Mac (FRE) by Keefe Bruyette

What was that Yesterday???

Apparently, we saw a panic selloff yesterday by hedge funds that are heavily leveraged in the commodity market. The selloff was so severe, it took down the rest of the market. The panic was started by the strengthening of the Dollar. Most of the commodity play has been tied to weakness in the Dollar. A stronger Dollar, though positive for the rest of the market, will undoubtedly cause a mass exodus out of Oil, Gold, Metals, Wheat and anything that has to do with those.

Nike Reports Blowout Earnings...

Nike Inc. (NKE). The Beaverton, Ore.-based footwear and apparel company on Wednesday said third-quarter net income rose to $463.8 million or 92 cents a share from $350.8 million or 68 cents a share same time a year earlier.

The mean estimate of analysts polled by Thomson Financial was for earnings of 81 cents a share for the quarter. Revenue rose 16% to $4.54 billion from $3.93 billion a year ago, benefiting from favorable currency exchange rates movement, the company said.

China Mobile Growing Fast...

China Mobile Ltd. (CHL). The Chinese mobile telecommunications services provider today said net new subscribers in February totalled 7.97 million, bringing total subscribers to 384.35 million at the end of the last month. The company had reported 7.04 million net new subscribers for January.

Anadarko Wins Major Bid...

Anadarko Petroleum Corp. (APC). The Houston, TX-based energy company said late Wednesday it was the apparent high bidder on 20 deepwater tracts in the Central and Eastern Gulf of Mexico oil and gas lease sales 206 and 224, representing an expenditure of $143 million.

With the addition of the new blocks, Anadarko said it will have access to 633 blocks covering 3.5 million gross acres in the deepwater Gulf of Mexico.

Earnings Due Today....

• Barnes and Noble Inc. (BKS). Expected to report Q4 pforift of $1.70 per share, according to analysts polled by Thomson Financial. This is a decreased of 7.88% from the same quarter last year when the company earned $1.84.

• FedEx Corp. (FDX). Expected to report Q3 profit of $1.22 per share, down 9.56% from the same quarter last year when the company earned $1.35.

• Palm Inc. (PALM). Expected to report Q3 loss of $0.14 per share, against a profit of $0.16 earned the same quarter last year.

• Winnebago Industries Inc. (WGO). Expected to report Q2 profit of $0.23 per share, down 5.83% from the same quarter last year when it earned $0.24.

Today's Top Stories....

Oil drops below $100 a barrel; April gold hits 1-month low of $904.70/oz.

• PepsiCo, Pepsi Bottling to pay $1.4 billion for 75.5% stake in Russian juice maker

• Credit Suisse warns Q1 unlikely to be profitable

• Airline sector downgraded to 'neutral' from 'positive' at Lehman Bros.

• Abbott Labs raised to 'outperform' at Wachovia after end of Takeda joint venture

• Children’s Place Retail swings to Q4 loss; in talks over partial ownership of Disney Store chain in North America

• Amgen cut to ‘market perform’ at Wachovia on competitive threat to Epogen

•AOL may sell Indian call centre biz for $100 million - report

Wednesday, March 19, 2008

Nike Beats Estimates...

Nike (NKE) reported third quarter earnings totaled $0.92 per share. Analysts were calling for earnings of just $0.81 per share. Revenues rose 15% year-over-year to $4.5 billion versus the $4.4 billion consensus.

Notably, NKE reported worldwide futures orders for athletic footwear and apparel, scheduled for delivery from March 2008 through July 2008, totaled $6.9 billion. That is 11% higher than the orders reported for the same period one year ago.

Wednesday's Summary....

U.S. Markets

Dow -293.00 (-2.36%)
Nasdaq -58.30 (-2.57%)
S&P 500 -32.32 (-2.43%)

News That Moved the Market

Oil, Gold, and Stocks All Lose Ground. Stocks traded higher briefly in the morning, after Morgan Stanley (MS, +1.4%) reported better than expected earnings. The bank took a $2.3 billion writedown connected to subprime and housing issues, but added it had one of its best quarterly trading performances in the history of the firm. Major indices declined however, as investors noticed a sharp sell-off in commodities. Crude fell 4.5%, after the weekly inventories report showed an increase in stockpiles, while gold dropped 6.5%. Some experts blamed today's actions on hedge funds being forced to sell positions in order to de-leverage or meet margin calls. It was yet another reminder of how much influence hedge funds have attained in the last couple years, and how much they can move markets.

Record IPO for Visa. Visa (V, +28.4%) attracted a massive amount of bids and easily became the largest IPO in U.S. history. The stock opened at $44/share, pushing the total proceeds from the offering to more than $17.5 billion.

Capital Requirement Reductions Boost Fannie and Freddie. The Office of Federal Housing Enterprise Oversight will relax its capital requirements for Fannie Mac (FNM, +8.8%) and Freddie Mac (FRE, +14.9%), a move that might lead to the immediate injection of $200 billion in the mortgage-backed securities market. Both companies will now be able to do more business and help turnaround the housing market.

More Writedowns At Merrill? News that Merrill Lynch (MER, -8.6%) is suing XL Capital Assurance over default protection on $3 billion worth of CDOs concerned investors at the end of the day, pushing markets to finish at their worst levels of the day. "We filed suit to make clear that XL Capital Assurance Inc. is required to meet its contractual obligations," Mark Herr, a spokesman for Merrill, said. So far, MER has taken $24.5 billion worth of writedowns, which is the most of any of the major banks.

Quick Tics:

Nike (NKE, +0.3% day: +3.7% A.H.) reported a 32% increase in profits after the bell…

Apple (AAPL, -2.4%) is considering giving free access to iTunes to customers in exchange for paying more for an iPod or iPhone.

Tomorrow Notable Earnings:

FedEx (FDX) Time Not Supplied

Economic Events:

8:30 AM: Jobless Claims
10:00 AM: Leading Indicators
10:00 AM: Philadelphia Fed

Verizon Opens Network...

Verizon Wireless (VZ) says its open network will be "open for business" towards the end of 2Q. In a strong show of support for the "open concept," the #2 U.S. wireless provider is opening its network to third-party developers, hoping to spur the creation of new services and revenue streams.

Today's Upgrades...

List of Stocks Upgraded this Morning:

Buffalo Wild Wings (BWLD) by SMH Capital
Mercantile Bank (MBWM) by Stifel Nicolaus
Imclone (IMCL) by Citigroup
National City (NCC) by RBC Capital Mkts
Bunge (BG) by JP Morgan
Massey Energy (MEE) by JP Morgan
International Coal (ICO) by JP Morgan
Sanderson Farms (SAFM) by JP Morgan
Tyson Foods (TSN) by JP Morgan
AstraZeneca (AZN) by HSBC Securities
Countrywide (CFC) by Wachovia

VISA Opens at $59.50

Currently trading down to $56.00

Exxon Dealt Blow in Fight With Venezuela...

U.K. courts lifted a $12B freeze on Venezuela's assets and ordered ExxonMobil (XOM) to pay some fees. The legal battle began after Venezuela nationalized several oil projects. The ruling judge noted Petróleos de Venezuela SA, or PDVSA, isn't based in England and has no significant assets in the U.K. and is therefore not under its jurisdiction.

All the Apple You Can Eat...

Sources say Apple's (AAPL) iTunes online music store is considering teaming up with big music distributors to offer customers "all you can eat" iPods for a premium tacked on to the device purchase. The model would rival Nokia's (NOK) "comes with music" deal with Universal, but Apple is reportedly offering music companies just $20 per device, vs. Nokia's $80.

Apple is also considering a monthly/yearly iTunes subscription model. Market research has shown customers would pay up to $100, or $7-8/month, for unlimited access.

Yahoo Plays Hard to Get...

Yahoo (YHOO) challenged Microsoft (MSFT) by reaffirming its 2008 financial guidance, and projecting strong revenue and cash-flow growth for 2009 and 2010 -- based on which shares could be worth north of $40/share vs. Microsoft's $31 cash and stock offer which is now worth about $29.50. Citigroup's Mark Mahaney said the 2009-10 numbers would not be easy to hit, but thinks the deal will ultimately close at more than $31/share.

Meanwhile Chinese internet company Alibaba, 39% owned by Yahoo, said it is in advanced talks to finance a buyback of Yahoo's stake should Microsoft's bid prevail.

VISA Starts Trading Today....

Visa Inc. The San Francisco-based credit card giant late Tuesday priced its initial public offering of 406 million shares at $44 each, raising $17.86 billion. The pricing came in above the expected range of $37 to $42 a share.

The company's shares will begin trading today on the New York Stock Exchange under the ticker symbol "V."

Adobe Posts Strong Earnings...

Adobe Systems Inc. (ADBE). The San Jose, Calif-based design and publishing software maker late Tuesday said first-quarter net income rose to $219.37 million, or $0.38 a share, from $143.85 million, or $0.24 a share, a year ago. For the quarter to Feb. 29, revenue rose to $851.96 million from $620.29 million.

For the second quarter, Adobe said it is targeting revenue of $855-$885 million. For 2008, it reaffirmed target revenue growth of about 13% and EPS of $1.45-$1.51.

Adobe stock is up 1.90 to $33.60 in premarket trading.

Earnings Due Today....

COMPANIES REPORTING EARNINGS

• Charming Shoppes Inc. (CHRS). Expected to report Q4 loss of $0.19 a share, according to the analysts polled by Thomson Financial. This is against a profit of $0.19 a share earned same quarter last year.

• Cintas Corp. (CTAS) Expected to report Q3 earnings of $0.54 a share.

• Discover Financial Services (DFS). Expected to report Q1 profit of $0.40 per share.

• Guess? Inc. (GES). Expected to report a Q4 profit of $0.57 per share.

• Herman Miller Inc. (MLHR). Expected to report Q3 earnings of $0.59 a share.

• Morgan Stanley (MS). Expected to report a Q1 profit of $1.03 per share.

• Nike Inc. (NKE). Expected to report Q3 profit of $0.81 per share, up 17.66% from the same quarter last year when the company earned $0.69.

• Ross Stores Inc. (ROST). Expected to report Q4 profit of $0.70 per share.

Today's Top Stories....

• Staples plans hostile bid for Dutch rival - report

• Venezuela wants to return to arbitration with ExxonMobil

• NASDAQ OMX to form Europe-wide market for blue chips

• Total buys 30% stake from Chevron in Alaska exploration zone

• Japan's Takeda Pharma in talks to buy out U.S. JV with Abbott - report

• China's Alibaba planning to buy out Yahoo stake - report

• PetroChina FY net up slightly as crude output rises only 1%

• General Mills Q3 net rises to $430 million

• Apple in talks with music cos to offer free iTunes access - report

• JP Morgan cuts Kraft Foods to 'neutral' from 'overweight'

• Bear Stearns to reimburse indemnified employees for legal costs