Sunday, February 24, 2008
What's Going on This Week....
-- Lowe's Companies and Nordstrom report earnings, shedding more light on consumer spending. Lowe's is expected to post a 56% drop in fourth-quarter earnings per share, Nordstrom a slight drop.
-- Fed Governor Randall Kroszner will discuss risk management at the Global Association of Risk Professionals Annual Risk Convention in New York.
-- Fed Governor Frederic Mishkin discusses stabilizing inflation in Greenville, N.C.
Tuesday Feb 26
-- H.J. Heinz is expected to report earnings of 66 cents a share, flat from a year ago. Retailers Home Depot and Macy's are likely to post declines of 14% and 4%, respectively.
-- The January producer price index, offering the latest read on inflation, is expected to jump 0.4%, while the core index adds only 0.2%.
-- Analysts will ponder "The Future of Coal-Fired Power Generation: What Does the Market Think?" during a seminar presented by the New York Society of Security Analysts.
-- Fed Vice Chairman Donald Kohn will discuss the economy and monetary policy at the University of North Carolina.
-- Deputy U.S. Trade Representative John Veroneau will discuss "The Challenges of Global Sovereign Investment" at a meeting in New York sponsored by the U.S. Council for International Business.
Wednesday Feb 27
-- Fed Chairman Bernanke delivers his semi-annual testimony on monetary
policy before the House Financial Services Committee.
-- The horrid housing market is expected to produce a first-quarter loss of
44 cents a share for Toll Brothers, down from a 33-cent gain last year.
-- Analysts estimate durable goods sales fell by 3.5% in January, a big
change from December's 5.2% increase.
-- Keefe, Bruyette & Woods opens its two-day regional bank conference in
Boston.
-- Wachovia kicks off its three-day homebuilding and building-products
conference in Las Vegas.
Thursday Feb 28
-- The first read on the fourth quarter's gross domestic product is
reported, with analysts expecting a rise of only 0.7%.
-- Fed Chairman Bernanke makes his second presentation on monetary policy,
this time before the Senate Banking panel.
-- American International Group is expected to announce fourth-quarter
earnings after the market closes. It previously disclosed that outside
accountants were forcing a $5.2 billion write-down for the third quarter.
Investors wonder if there will be more.
-- Robbins & Myers will split its stock two-for-one.
-- Genoptix is expected to sell 4.2 million shares held by existing
shareholders through Lehman Brothers.
Friday Feb 29
-- January's personal income growth is expected to fall to 0.2%, from 0.5%
in December, while consumer spending is expected to remain at 0.2%.
-- Atlanta Fed President Dennis Lockhart discusses subprime mortgages.
-- Treasury auctions: M63
Companies That Are Raising Their Dividends...
AMB Property Corp-AMB
Avista Corp-AVA
Blackrock Inc-BLK
Canadian Pac Railway-CP
Coca-Cola Co-KO
Equus Total Return-EQS
FBL Fin'l Group A-FFG
Foot Locker Inc-FL
Genuine Parts Co-GPC
Integrys Energy Group-TEG
Interface Inc A-IFSIA
Kimberly-Clark Corp-KMB
Nam Tai Electronic-NTE
Nordstrom Inc-JWN
Nu Skin Enterprises - NUS
Nucor Corp-NUE
PPL Corp-PPL
Pacific Cont'l Corp-PCBK
RenaissanceRE Hldg-RNR
Rogers Communications B-RCI
S.Y. Bancorp-SYBT
Sealed Air Corp-SEE
Sherwin-Williams-SHW
Tennant Co-TNC
Tim Hortons Inc-THI
UST Inc-UST
Westar Energy Inc-WR
World Wrestling Entertainment-WWE
Barron's Says Disney is Undervalued....
Trading at 14.4 times next years' earnings, shares are at their lowest point in 18 years. The multiple is about equal with that of the S&P 500 average, which sounds ok until you realize Disney normally trades at an average 30% premium. Even better, CEO Robert Iger has succeeded in building a Disney "more diversified, better- managed, less cyclical and more disciplined in its brand development and capital-allocation strategies" than the company Walt built. Iger's 'franchise'-centric philosophy has executives focused on developing brand franchises, such as the exceptionally successful Hannah Montana, whose secondary products become revenue producers for other Disney units.
Morgan Stanley's Benjamin Swinburne gives the company a sum-of-parts value of $43/share ($32.57), which he equates to a $36 stock price after applying a 15% conglomerate discount.
Saturday, February 23, 2008
Friday's Trading Summary...
Dow +96.72 (+0.79%)
Nasdaq +3.57 (+0.16%)
S&P 500 +10.58 (+0.79%)
News That Moved the Market:
Scary Session Finishes With Happy Ending. With little news after Thursday's disastrous Philly Fed figures, the markets drifted lower throughout the morning before finding support in the afternoon. In the last minutes of the session, CNBC reporter Charles Gasparino announced that a source had told him a bailout plan for troubled bond insurer Ambac (ABK, +16.0%) was close to being completed and could be announced early next week. Though the details were sketchy, MarketWatch added the plan may include eight banks that are major counterparties to Ambac. The list includes Citigroup (C, +0.3%), Barclays (BCS, +3.4%), UBS (UBS, +3.0%), and Wachovia (WB, +2.9%), among others. The markets shot up on the news, with the S&P gaining 2% after the announcement. The deal is not complete and could fall apart, but if the deal is announced, investors would feel as if a major disaster would have been averted and could start putting money back in financials.
Weak Outlook At Intuit. Intuit Inc. (INTU, -9.2%), maker of small business software such as QuickBooks and TurboTax, announced fiscal second quarter results which were in-line with analysts' forecasts, however, the company lowered its fiscal third-quarter EPS estimates. There were some interesting comments make by CEO Brad Smith: "Small businesses are out there competing in this market and the small business customers we serve are very much like consumers… A lot of small businesses today will operate their business with lines of credit, credit cards, home equity loans, and we know the condition there."
Quick Tics:
Fannie Mae (FNM, -0.9%) and Freddie Mac (FRE, -4.1%) were both downgraded at Merrill Lynch citing bad business conditions.
Next week's important economic figures include PPI (Tuesday), Durable Goods (Wednesday), Preliminary GDP (Thursday), and Personal Income and Outlays (Friday).
Monday's Notable Earnings:
Nordstrom (JWN) After CloseLowe's Companies (LOW) Time Not Supplied
Economic Events:
10:00 AM: Existing Home Sales
Stocks to Watch on Monday....
Lowe's Companies (LOW), the second-largest home improvement retailer in the world, is projected to report fourth-quarter earnings of 25 cents a share.
Sotheby's Holdings, Inc (BID) is forecast to post earnings of $1.49 a share in the fourth quarter.
LDK Solar Co. (LDK), manufacturer of multicrystalline solar wafers, is expected to report fourth-quarter earnings of 41 cents a share.
FirstEnergy (FE), a diversified energy company, is forecast to report earnings of 94 cents a share in the fourth quarter.
Shanda Interactive Entertainment (SNDA), a China-based interactive entertainment media company, is estimated to post earnings of 45 cents a share in the fourth quarter.
Tesco (TESO), manufacturer of technology-based solutions for the upstream energy industry, is likely to report earnings of 22 cents a share in the fourth quarter.
After Friday's closing bell, Genentech Inc. (DNA) said the U.S. Food and Drug Administration granted an accelerated approval for Avastin, in combination with paclitaxel chemotherapy, for the treatment of patients who have not received chemotherapy for their metastatic breast cancer. Accelerated approval means that the FDA must still review data on the drug before granting full market approval. The approval is based on a Phase III study that showed that Avastin in combination with paclitaxel chemotherapy resulted in a 52% reduction in the risk of disease progression or death. Avastin is already FDA-approved for colorectal cancer and non-small-cell lung cancer.
How to Accept an Oscar....
-- Write your speech as a script, and memorize it!
-- Pause, smile and count to three before saying anything. ("One one-thousand, two one-thousand, three one-thousand. Pause. Begin.)
-- Begin by addressing the audience. It buys you time and calms your nerves. Remember, the audience is rooting for you.
-- Practice, practice, practice! Rehearse with a timer and allow time for the unexpected.
-- Control filler words (ums and ahs; "you knows"). To do so, see above points: Practice, pause and breathe.
-- Keep names to a minimum and get them right!
-- Include a brief but touching anecdote or little-known fact regarding the role or job you are recognized for.
-- Mainly, your acceptance speech should represent you -- as a professional and as a person.
-- Concentrate on your message. You have important thoughts to convey, so focus on your speech, not on the audience.
-- Make your last line expendable, in case you are cut off.
Friday, February 22, 2008
Reason For Late Move....
New York State Insurance Department's plan to bail out troubled bond insurer Ambac Financial could be announced Monday or Tuesday, reports CNBC's Charlie Gasparino, citing conversations with "bankers working on the deal."
FDA Approves Genentech's Avastin Drug...
This is huge surprise for Genentech...
Stocks Turn Green....
Today's Downgrades....
Barrick Gold (ABX) by UBS to Neutral from Buy
Best Buy (BBY) by Morgan Stanley to Underweight from Equal Weight
ChoicePoint (CPS) by GARP to Neutral from Buy
Fannie Mae (FNM) by Merrill Lynch to Sell from Neutral
Freddie Mac (FRE) by Merrill Lynch to Sell from Neutral
Freeport-McMoran (FCX) by Desjardins to Hold from Buy
Gilead (GILD) by Sanford Berstein to Mkt Perform from Outperform
Goldcorp (GG) by R James to Mkt Perform from Outperform
Goldcorp (GG) by Salman to Hold from Buy
Kinross Gold (KGC) by Genuity to Hold from Buy
Kinross Gold (KGC) by UBS to Neutral from Buy
Nicor Inc (GAS) by Baird to Neutral from Outperform
Today's Upgrades...
American Equity (AEL) by KeyBanc to Buy from Hold
Bristow Grp (BRS) by C. Suisse to Neutral from Underperform
DCP Midstream (DPM) by Wachovia to Outperform from Mkt Perform
DirecTV (DTV) by Cowen & Co to Outperform from Neutral
Discover Fnl Svcs (DFS) by Morgan Stanley to Overweight from Underweight
Dynavax Tech (DVAX) by Oppenheimer to Outperform from Perform
Health Management (HMA) by Raymond James to Mkt Perform from Underperform
Hillenbrand (HB) by Hilliard Lyons to Buy from Neutral
ImClone Sys (IMCL) by Cowen & Co. to Outperform from Neutral
Switch & Data (SDXC) by Raymond James to Strong Buy from Outperform
Williams Cos (WMB) by RBC to Outperform from Sector Perform
Earnings Reports Due on Monday....
Atlas Pipeline Partners L.P. (APL) 4Q .62 AMC
China TechFaith Wireless Commun Tech (CNTF) 4Q .04 AMC
Donaldson Co. Inc. (DCI) 2Q .42 AMC
EXCO Resources Inc. (XCO) 4Q .06 AMC
FirstEnergy Corp. (FE) 4Q .94
Grant Prideco Inc. (GRP) 4Q 1.09
Greatbatch Inc. (GB) 4Q .22 4:00PM
GulfMark Offshore Inc. (GLF) 4Q 1.13 6:00AM
Henry Schein Inc. (HSIC) 4Q .82 BMO
Hilb Rogal & Hobbs Co. (HRH) 4Q .55 AMC
Human Genome Sciences Inc. (HGSI) 4Q (.54) AMC
Keryx BioPharms Inc. (KERX) 4Q (.44)
LDK Solar Co. Ltd. (LDK) 4Q .41 AMC
Lowe's Cos. (LOW) 4Q .25
Nationwide Health Ppties Inc. (NHP) 4Q .33 AMC
Nordstrom Inc. (JWN) 4Q .90
ONEOK Inc. (OKE) 4Q .94 AMC
ONEOK Partners L.P. (OKS) 4Q 1.20 AMC
Orient Express Hotels Ltd. (OEH) 4Q .20 AMC
Perfect World Co. Ltd. (PWRD) 4Q .28 BMO
Shanda Interactive Entertain Ltd. (SNDA) 4Q .45 AMC
Sirtris Pharms Inc. (SIRT) 4Q (.34) AMC
Tesco Corp. (TESO) 4Q .22 BMO
TNS Inc. (TNS) 4Q .21 AMC
USEC Inc. (USU) 4Q .09 AMC
Verenium Corp. (VRNM) 4Q (.20) AMC
Zebra Tech Corp. (ZBRA) 4Q .43 BMO
S&P Slashes GMAC Ratings...
Short List of Stocks to BUY.....
These are stocks you want to BUY if given an opportunity on a pullback...
Potash (POT)
Terex (TEX)
Intuitive Surgical (ISRG)
Hewlett-Packard (HPQ)
Medco Health (MHS)
Buffalo Wild Wings (BWLD)
Gamestop (GME)
Mosanto (MON)
JC Penney (JCP)
Zimmer Holdings (ZMH)
Sohu (SOHU)
Dolby Labs (DLB)
Research in Motion (RIMM)
Express Scripts (ESRX)
Boeing (BA)
Chattem (CHTT)
Corning (GLW)
IBM (IBM)
