Friday, November 4, 2011

S&P may downgrade Sony...

S&P places Sony (SNE -2.8%) on a credit watch for a possible downgrade after the bleeding (I, II) continues at the company. "The likelihood of Sony’s weak earnings persisting has increased as there are no signs of a halt to the deterioration in the earnings of the company’s core flat-panel TV business."

Europe closes lower...

European shares close sharply lower for the day and the week, giving back some of the major gains of the past month. Stoxx 50 -2.4% for the day, -3.9% for the week. Germany -2.6%, France -2.1%, Italy -2.5%, Spain -1.4%, U.K. -0.2%. Euro -0.6% at $1.3745.

BAC to issue more stock...

Bank of America’s (BAC) plan to issue common stock to raise funds probably will dilute shareholders, but the bigger issue may be a loss of credibility. The move "would have no material impact on long-term EPS," Mike Mayo says, but it "reflects poorly on management who were previously adamant that BAC did not need to raise any additional common capital."

BAC is trading down 0.31 to 6.60

Valero buyout rumors are out there...

Shares of Valero Energy (VLO) move higher on renewed speculation that the company is a target for a takeover. Volatility has surged in the stock over the past week on rumors of a bidding war building amongst its bigger rivals.

Today's Upgrades and Downgrades...

These are some of Friday’s top analyst upgrades, downgrades, and initiations seen from Wall Street research calls.

Big Lots Inc. (NYSE: BIG) Raised to Outperform at Wedbush.

Chico’s FAS Inc. (NYSE: CHS) Cut to Neutral at Citigroup.

Delta Air Lines (NYSE: DAL) Raised to Outperform as Bull of the Day at Zacks.

Energy Recovery Inc. (NASDAQ: ERII) Started as Neutral at Credit Suisse.

PPG Industries, Inc. (NYSE: PPG) named as Value stock of the Day at Zacks.

Plexus Corporation (NASDAQ: PLXS) named Bear of the Day at Zacks.

Randgold Resources Limited (NASDAQ: GOLD) Cut to Hold at Canaccord Genuity.

Royal Gold, Inc. (NASDAQ: RGLD) Cut to Sector Perform at National Bank.

SandRidge Energy, Inc. (NYSE: SD) Cut to Hold at Stifel Nicolaus.

Stanley Black & Decker Inc. (NYSE: SWK) Raised to Buy at Argus.

SunPower Corporation (NASDAQ: SPWRA) Cut to Underperform at Macquarie.

Transocean Ltd. (NYSE: RIG) Cut to Underperform at Macquarie.

Trina Solar Limited (NYSE: TSL) Cut to Neutral at Macquarie.

Vical Inc. (NASDAQ: VICL) Started as Outperform with $7 target at Credit Suisse.

VIVUS, Inc. (NASDAQ: VVUS) Started as Outperform with $15 target at Credit Suisse.

YRC Worldwide Inc. (NASDAQ: YRCW) Raised to Hold fro Sell at Stifel Nicolaus.

11:45 am update....

Stocks are lower this morning as traders turned bearish after the jobs release earlier.  There are some pockets of strength though....but most of those are individual stories.

Dow -148
Nas -28
S&P -17 to 1244

CREE pops on China news...

Shares of LED lighting leader Cree (CREE +6.3%) pop on an AP report that China will phase out incandescent light bulbs within five years. China will ban imports and sales of 100-watt and higher incandescent bulbs from Oct. 1, 2012, the country's main planning agency said.

Chesapeak blows out estimates...

Chesapeake Energy (CHK): Q3 EPS of $0.72 beats by $0.06. Revenue of $4B (+54% Y/Y) beats by $860M.

Q3 blows out estimates on all fronts as the company reports a 54% jump in revenue Y/Y, primarily due to windfall profits from hedging operations and a 9% jump in liquids production. Separately, the company says it's selling a 25% stake in a portion of its Utica Shale play - 650K net acres - in a joint venture to undisclosed buyers for $3.4B.

Non Farm Payrolls number out...

Stock index futures show little reaction as the Non Farm Payrolls report comes in close to inline, but sees previous months' jobs revised higher by 55K. S&P 500 flat after being down 3/4 of a percent before the report.

Groupon comes public at $20...

Groupon (GRPN) officially hits the NASDAQ screen, quoted at $20.00, valuing the company at $12.65B. This is the largest IPO since Google.

BI's cheat sheet on the Groupon (GRPN) IPO declares the controversial daily deals giant "a real business" that "will likely be nicely profitable" long-term, but also calls its valuation "very expensive," and raises concerns about decelerating growth and possible corporate governance issues.

New Nook tablet due out on Monday...

Barnes & Noble's (BKS) new Nook tablet debuts Monday with a $249 price tag - marking a $50 premium over Amazon's (AMZN) much-anticipated Kindle Fire. With both devices running off of Google's Android OS and offering users similar basic features, Barnes & Noble will have to drill home to customers the faster processor and increased memory is worth the extra $50 in order to land its e-reader on holiday shopping lists.

Good morning...

US stock index futures are pointing to a lower open on Wall Street Friday as the euro zone debt crisis dominated a meeting of world leaders at the G20 Summit in France and investors nervously awaited critical non-farm payrolls data for signs of economic recovery.

Greece also dominated the thoughts of world leaders as Greek Prime Minister George Papandreou faces a confidence vote in Parliament later today that could determine whether his country will stay in the euro zone or leave the single currency and default on its debts.

Thursday, November 3, 2011

Stocks close at session highs....

A significant day for stocks as it looks like we may be moving past the Greek and Euro problems.  It was obvious that real money started coming in as the day wore on.  There are way too many funds that are underinvested in stocks right now.  Those guys cannot afford to miss any yearend rallies...so they MUST put money to work.  We need to see a follow thru tomorrow, but I really like the way we traded today.

Dow +208
Nas +57
S&P +23 to 1261

Groupon IPO starts trading tomorrow...

Online coupon purveyor Groupon (GRPN) is worth more than half the S&P 500 index, including long-running national brands like Whole Foods Market and Dow member Alcoa, according to latest IPO valuation estimation. Traders doubt it belongs in such established company.

The IPO could price $3 above the top of the $16 to $18 range Thursday, according to a CNBC report (link to Kayla’s story), giving it a value of as much as $13 billion, more than the market capitalization of 285 members in the U.S. equity benchmark.

“The current valuations for Groupon are ludicrous,” said Jim Iuorio, managing director for TJM Institutional Services. “The major mistake that the market is making is using Facebook as proxy in helping establish valuations. Groupon has no community aspect to it and therefore users are free to leave and shop for the best deal.”

Maybe these are just the rants of jealous investors cut out of the new issue because this kind of talk has yet to dent demand for the 3-year old daily deals site. All indications are that the roadshow by chief executive Andrew Mason has been well received by investors lucky enough to get their piece.

Yet many traders point out that this could be folks eager to flip the stock quickly over the short term on the initial euphoria that has been a trademark of some of the recent tech and social media IPOs.

For example, online business networking site LinkedIn (LNKD) doubled on the first day of trading in May, but its shares are off about 10 percent since then. Music site Pandora jumped 9 percent during its first day of trading in June, but now trades below its $16 IPO price.

“Caveat emptor if you are stupid enough to hold this one for more than a flip,” said Jon Najarian, co-founder of TradeMonster.com.

Questions about its accounting practices, as well as low barriers to entry for competitors, have also given investors with a long-term outlook pause.

Still, for the bears, there’s a catch. Groupon is selling very few shares to the public. So few, that the offering will represent less than five percent of the float. This makes the shares difficult to borrow in order to bet against the company through a short position.

“It seems like an easy short at the proposed market cap, however there are two very important issues that can not be overlooked: the small float makes it very dangerous to short and Google tried to buy them recently,” said Michael Murphy of Rosecliff Capital. “As a rule, Google does not make stupid or over-priced acquisitions.”

At 3 pm....

Stocks are holding their gains and banks are continuing to work higher.

Dow +192
Nas +50
S&P +20 to 1258

Airlines try to raise prices again...

US Airways (LCC) and Delta Air Lines (DAL) are raising fares on many U.S. flights by up to $10 per round trip, in the latest attempt by airlines to boost revenue during a normally slow time of year for travel. Prices were raised successfully two weeks ago, but another fare hike last week fizzled and was eventually canceled.

Stocks reporting before the bell tomorrow...

Ultra Petroleum (UPL)
Warner Chilcott (WCRX)
Washington Post (WPO)
Treehouse Foods (THS)

Stocks reporting after the close today...

Skyworks (SWKS)
Allscripts (MDRX)
Chesapeake Energy (CHK)
Hansen Natural (HANS)
First Solar (FSLR)
Bebe Stores (BEBE)
Starbucks (SBUX)
Linked In (LNKD)
Genworth (GNW)

Stocks are still climbing....

Stocks are looking strong here, as it looks like we are shaking off the Greek news and our market's ties to every move of the Euro.

Dow +162
Nas +41
S&P +17 to 1254

Banks are starting to strengthen which is a very good sign.  On Friday, the S&P got as high as 1284 before selling off on Monday and Tuesday.  A move back above that level would represent a new breakout and would surely put us back in rally mode.

Allscripts to report after the close today...

Allscripts Healthcare Solutions (MDRX) is set to release Q3 results after the close today, and investors are no doubt hoping it can break the bad streak for medical-software stocks this earnings season.  Analysts polled by Thomson Reuters expect Allscripts (MDRX) to report profit of 22 cents a share, up 16% from a year ago. Sales are forecast to rise 51% to $364.9 million.

Those are good numbers, but industry watchers have reason to be nervous after Allscripts' rivals' reports. Quality Systems (QSII) and Computer Programs & Systems (CPSI) both missed estimates last week and were punished harshly on the stock market. Athenahealth (ATHN) and Cerner (CERN) met expectations and guided in-line, but the stocks have still ticked downward.

The group might have been suffering from high expectations. It's been a stock-market darling for the last couple of years, ever since President Obama's health care package promised serious money for physicians to upgrade to electronic health records and other forms of computerization.

Here is the long term chart going back to 2004:


Icahn increases stake in Navistar...

Carl Icahn just bought another piece of Navistar (NAV) stock, boosting his stake in the commercial trucking company to 9.99%, according to an SEC filing. Icahn recently made large investments in both Navistar and Oshkosh (OSK), another trucking company, leading to speculation that he wants to combine the two.

Today's Upgrades and Downgrades...

These are some of Thursday’s top analyst upgrades, downgrades, and initiations seen from Wall Street research calls.

Annaly Capital Management, Inc. (NYSE: NLY) Raised to Outperform at Wells Fargo.

Boston Scientific Corp. (NYSE: BSX) Started as Outperform at Credit Suisse.

Career Education Corp. (NASDAQ: CECO) Cut to Underperform at BofA/ML.

Clorox Corp. (NYSE: CLX) Cut to Underperform at BofA/ML.

CNH Global N.V. (NYSE: CNH) named as Value stock of the day at Zacks.

Dendreon Corporation (NASDAQ: DNDN) Cut to Neutral at Goldman Sachs.

Freeport-McMoRan Copper & Gold Inc. (NYSE: FCX) Started as Overweight at Barclays.

Hexcel Corporation (NYSE: HXL) Cut to Neutral at BofA/ML.

Hospira Inc. (NYSE: HSP) cut to Underperform ar Bear of the Day at Zacks.

Medtronic Inc. (NYSE: MDT) Started as Outperform at Credit Suisse.

Rockwell Collins Inc. (NYSE: COL) Cut to Underperform at BofA/ML.

Sierra Wireless Inc. (NASDAQ: SWIR) downgraded at Raymond James and Morgan Keegan.

St. Jude Medical (NYSE: STJ) Started as Neutral at Credit Suisse.

Sun Life Financial Inc. (NYSE: SLF) Cut to Underperform at Credit Suisse.

Teva Pharmaceutical Industries Limited (NASDAQ: TEVA) Raised to Overweight at Morgan Stanley.

Tidewater Inc. (NYSE: TDW) Cut to Hold at Argus.

Wyndam Worldwide (NYSE: WYN) named Bull of the Day at Zacks.

At 11:00 am...

Stocks are behaving nicely and appear to have digested the lastest in the Greek saga.

Dow +84
Nas +16
S&P +6 to 1244

Leaders:

Cummins Inc. (CMI) +3.18 to 101.95
IBM +2.37 to 186.30
Mercado Libre (MELI) +21.46 to 84.74
Strayer (STRA) +9.17 to 87.83
SXC Health (SXCI) +2.22 to 46.71
Netflix (NFLX) +1.80 to 85.20

Banks and Oils are weak...Gold and Silver are up.

Netflix looks to be holding up here....

It sure sounds like all the bad news is out on Netflix and may be a time to start adding shares.  Volume is slowing down meaning sellers have possibly been exhausted.

NFLX is currently up 0.80 to 84.17

Here is the daily chart:


Whole Foods misses on Revenues...

Whole Foods Market (WFM): Q4 beats on a per share basis but misses on revenue. Earnings rose 12% Y/Y, with same-store sales up 8.4%. Separately, the company announces a 40% increase to its dividend, amounting to $0.56 per share, and a $200M stock buyback.

WFM stock is holding up OK, currently down 2.20 to 68.41...it could be much worse, but this is a stock funds want to own.

Aeropostle preannounces good earnings...

Aeropostale (ARO) rises 20% after preannouncing FQ3 revenue of $596.5M (-1% Y/Y) and EPS of $0.27-$0.28, well above Street estimates of $574.1M and $0.12. Same-store sales are expected to decline 9%, slightly better than FQ2's 10% drop. The apparel retailer reports earnings on Nov. 30.

ARO is up 2.95 to 17.97 this morning.

Qualcomm jumps after lifting forecast...

Qualcomm Inc. (QCOM). The chipmaker forecast double-digit sales growth this fiscal year, banking on continued strong demand for smartphones and mobile devices as its quarterly results beat Wall Street estimates. For the current quarter, it expects sales to jump 30 percent to 42 percent. It posted fourth quarter net earnings of $1.06 billion, or 0.62 cents per share, compared with $865 million, or 53 cents per share, in the year-ago quarter.


QCOM is currently up 3.70 to 55.87

Dendreon heads lower...

Dendreon Corp. (DNDN). The biotechnology company forecast only modest sales growth for its Provenge prostate cancer vaccine for the next several quarters. It posted a net loss of $147.1 million, or $1.00 per share, compared with a loss of $79.3 million, or 56 cents per share, a year earlier.


DNDN is down 3.63 to 6.83 (34%)

CVS beats expectations...

CVS Caremark Corp. (CVS). The company posted a higher quarterly profit as business improved at its pharmacy benefits management unit, and said this year's profit should come in toward the higher end of its prior forecast. Net income rose to $868 million, or 65 cents per share, from $809 million, or 59 cents per share, a year earlier. It now expects to post adjusted earnings from continuing operations of $2.77 to $2.81 per share this year.


CVS is currently up 1.31 to 37.08

OK...Back in the office...

Stocks are currently mixed as traders are trying to determine the impact of the Greek referendum proposal.

Dow +52
Nas +2
S&P +3

More in a second...

Wednesday, November 2, 2011

Stocks hold gains...

Stocks held their gains this afternoon following the news that Bernanke and crew are on standby to start a QE3 program.  I personally think that is a bad idea, but for today...the market is OK with it.

Dow +178
Nas +33
S&P +19 to 1237

After the bell, a G20 Official was quoted as saying that Greece will be cutoff from any aid until the referendum goes thru...and if the vote denies the proposed aid, then Greece will go bankrupt.  The referendum may possibly take as long as a month before it happens.  Great!!!

Nice news to close the day with...probably will not be received very well overnight...but who knows with this market.

Earnings due tomorrow before the bell...

Earnings due tomorrow:

Apache (APA)
CVS Caremark (CVS)
Duke Energy (DUK)
Kellogg (K)
Strayer Education (STRA)

Earnings due out after the bell...

Companies due to report today:

Polypore (PPO)
Qualcomm (QCOM)
Concho Resources (CXO)
Vulcan Materials (VMC)
Whole Foods (WFM)
Kraft Foods (KFT)
Comscore (SCOR)
Walter Energy (WLT)
Mercado Libre (MELI)
Dendreon (DNDN)
Nutrisystem (NTRI)

Don't get me started on ETFs...

"The market has become one big fat ETF, deal with it," writes Josh Brown, noting the average CBOE Implied Correlation Index has hit a stratospheric 78.21 recently. "It's a binary market - risk-off or risk-on depending on which side of the bed any given finance minister in Brussels wakes up on that morning."

At 2:50 pm....

As Fed Chaiman Bernanke speaks, the market is moving higher.  After the press release, the Dow had fallen back to only up 60 points.

Dow +163
Nas +22
S&P +16 to 1234

House puts freeze on any new wireless taxes...

The House yesterday approved a five-year freeze on any new state and local taxes imposed on cellphones and other wireless services, including wireless broadband access. Wireless customers reportedly now pay 16.3% in taxes and fees, more than double the average rate of 7.4% on other goods and services. A bill still must pass the Senate and be signed by the president.

Have you seen how many taxes are on your cellphone bill???

FOMC makes no new moves, but hints that economy is starting to strengthen...

Fed Open Market Committee: No move on talked-about big buys of mortgage-backed securities. No change to benchmark rate plans (to freeze them near zero until mid-2013). Operation Twist goes on. The lone dissenter this time was Charles Evans, who wanted more accommodation.

Growth "strengthened somewhat" in Q3, but labor market's still weak and unemployment "elevated." Inflation appears to have moderated with energy and some commodities off peaks. No large-scale MBS buys but principal reinvestment will go on. Next up: Bernanke speaks at 2:15 p.m. EDT.

Noon update...

Stocks are holding earlier gains as traders wait for the latest Fed Meeting statement to be read at 12:30 pm.  The market is also accepting of the Greek referendum that has been proposed.

Dow +186
Nas +32
S&P +20 to 1238

All 10 S&P sectors are higher.

Wellcare blows out earnings...

WellCare Health Plans Inc. said Wednesday its third quarter net income more than doubled as Medicare prescription drug premiums boosted revenue and the insurer again raised its 2011 earnings forecast.

The Tampa, Fla., company earned $88.3 million, or $2.03 per share, in the three months that ended Sept. 30. That compares with earnings of $42.9 million, or $1 per share, in last year's quarter.

Stripping out one-time costs, WellCare said it earned $2.15 per share in the third quarter.

Revenue climbed 11 percent to $1.54 billion.

The performance trumped Wall Street expectations. Analysts surveyed by FactSet expected, on average, earnings of $1.31 per share on about $1.5 billion in revenue.

WellCare provides managed care for government-sponsored health plans like Medicare and Medicaid. Its enrollment grew 10 percent to 2.4 million people, compared with the same quarter last year.

WCG is currently up 3.55 to 51.32

This is the stock that dropped from 137 to 20 when the FBI raided its headquarters back in 2007.  Looks like it finally has its troubles behind them.  Here's the long term chart:

PEET reports in-line...

Peet's Coffee & Tea Inc. (PEET) reported third quarter 2011 earnings per share of 28 cents, which surpassed the Zacks Consensus Estimate by a penny. The results were in line with the prior-year period earnings.  Including the anticipated settlement and legal costs of a class action lawsuit of $2.2 million after tax, reported earnings came in at 11 cents per share in the third-quarter of 2011 versus 28 cents.

The company affirms its 2011 earnings will be at the higher end of the previous guidance range of $1.43 to $1.50. In addition, Peet’s expects its 2011 reported earnings to be at the higher end of the $1.27 to $1.34 range, including litigation-related expenses of 16 cents per share.

Further, Peet’s anticipates its 2012 earnings to be in the range of $1.70 to $1.80.


I guess they don't like the litigation expense!!!  PEET is down 3.88 to 57.55 this morning.

Career Education falls short...

Career Education's (CECO) Q3 falls wide of the mark on a sharp drop in new student enrollment. The company reports an EPS of $0.15 on revenue of $431M, well below consensus expectations for an EPS of $0.34 on revenue of $457M. Additionally, the company announces its CEO Gary McCullough has resigned and appoints Chairman Steve Lesnik to the post.

CECO is getting hammered, down 6.38 to 9.57 (-40%)

Stocks gap higher on open...

I guess we are seeing a little relief rally this morning as traders digest all the world's news over night.  We saw a large reversal in the Chinese market to close much higher and I guess that is setting the tone.

Dow +133
Nas +19
S&P +15 to 1233

This VIX is down 1.00 to 33.85

Garmin says shipments fell...but raises forcast...

Garmin Ltd. (GRMN). The navigation device maker posted a lower quarterly profit as shipments fell, but raised its full-year forecast on higher margins. It forecast revenue of $2.6 billion and pro-forma earnings of $2.30-$2.40 a share. Garmin's third-quarter net income was $150.4 million, or 77 cents a share, down from $279.6 million, or $1.44 a share, a year ago.

GRMN is up 1.57 to 35.74 this morning.

Mastercard beats...stock flies...

MasterCard (MA): Q3 EPS of $5.63 beats by $0.82. Revenue of $1.81B (+27.3% Y/Y) beats by $100M.

Gross dollar volume of transactions grew 18.1% Y/Y, up from Q2's 16.4%. 13.6% growth in U.S. dollar volume, 20.4% growth in international volume. Processed transactions rose 20.5%, up from Q2's 17.4%. Free cash flow was $991M, up 72% Y/Y.

MA is currently up 27.72 to 362.02

Nike upgraded by Goldman...

Nike (NKE) jumps after Goldman upgrades to "Buy" and puts the stock on its "Conviction Buy" list. With shares at an all-time high, Goldman identifies Nike as a category leader and an outperformer in the S&P, also seeing the 2012 Olympics as a catalyst for even better performance.

NKE is up 1.45 to 95.33

Today's Upgrades and Downgrades...

These are some of Wednesday’s top analyst upgrades, downgrades, and initiations seen from Wall Street research calls.

American Water Works Company, Inc. (NYSE: AWK) added to Strong Buy List at Zacks.

Bank of America Corporation (NYSE: BAC) Cut to Hold at S&P Capital IQ (late-Tuesday).

Brookfield Infrastructure Partners LP (NYSE: BIP) reinstated as Outperform with $32 target at Credit Suisse.

Caterpillar Inc. (NYSE: CAT) Started as Overweight at Morgan Stanley.

Citigroup, Inc. (NYSE: C) Cut to Hold at S&P Capital IQ (late-Tuesday).

Corn Products International (NYSE: CPO) named Value Stock of the Day at Zacks.

Deere & Co. (NYSE: DE) Started as Underweight at Morgan Stanley.

Diamond Foods, Inc. (NASDAQ: DMND) Cut to Neutral at BofA/ML; Cut to Neutral at Janney.

Encana Corporation (NYSE: ECA) Cut to Neutral at BofA/ML.

Gap Inc. (NYSE: GPS) Raised to positive at Susquehanna.

Government Properties Income Trust (NYSE: GOV) Cut to Neutral at Janney.

Joy Global, Inc. (NASDAQ: JOYG) Started as Equalweight at Morgan Stanley.

J.P. Morgan Chase & Co. (NYSE: JPM) Cut to Hold at S&P Capital IQ (late-Tuesday).

OpenTable, Inc. (NASDAQ: OPEN) Cut to Neutral at BofA/ML; Cut to Market Perform at Morgan Keegan; Raised to Buy at ThinkEquity.

Seaspan Corporation (NYSE: SSW) Cut to Hold at Deutsche Bank.

Texas Roadhouse Inc. (NASDAQ: TXRH) Cut to Neutral at Credit Suisse.

United States Cellular Corporation (NYSE: USM) Cut to Underweight at Morgan Stanley.

Valero Energy Corporation (NYSE: VLO) Reiterated Buy with $35 target at Argus.

Discovery Channel posts better than expected results...

Discovery Communications Inc. (DISCA). The company reported better-than-expected quarterly results and the media company behind hit cable TV shows such as "Storm Chasers" and "Deadliest Catch" bumped up its full-year outlook. Its third-quarter net income rose to $237 million, or 59 cents a share.

CF Industries beats expectations...

CF Industries Holdings Inc. (CF). The fertilizer producer posted a spike in quarterly profit on Tuesday that widely beat Wall Street's expectations as the company successfully raised prices for nitrogen and phosphate. For the third quarter, it posted net income of $330.9 million, or $4.73 per share, compared with $48.2 million, or 67 cents per share, in the year-ago period.

CF is up 4 points to 162 premarket.

Sony slashes forecast to fourth straight loss...

Sony Corp (SNE) said it is headed for its fourth straight annual net loss, instead of a profit it forecast earlier, as Thai floods disrupted camera production, adding to losses from a soaring yen and price slides in its TVs and PCs in the United States and Europe.

SNE is trading down 7% premarket.

Comcast posts strong quarter...

Comcast Corp. (CMCSA). The cable operator posted a stronger quarterly profit, as its traditional cable business helped offset weaker results from two of its newer media properties, the NBC television network and Universal Pictures. It reported third-quarter net income of $908 million, or 33 cents a share. Revenue rose about 5 percent to $14.3 billion.

CMCSA stock is up slightly premarket.

Greek PM wins over cabinet...

Greek Prime Minister George Papandreou will be in the hot seat later when he will likely face a grilling from French President Nicolas Sarkozy and German Chancellor Angela Merkel about his surprise move to put the rescue package to a popular vote.

The market moved up and down yesterday based on this referendum.  In the morning, news came out that Sarkozy was pushing for a referendum, in the afternoon news came out that the referendum idea was dead, and the market rallied, then toward the close, the referendum was back on, and the market sold off. 

Looking at today's futures rally, this "referendum" thing might have been a one-day wonder, not surprising as that is how this market has been behaving.

"Headline of the Day" mode...total crap, but that is the market we are in.

Good Morning...

Stock index futures are pointing to a mild rebound at today's open as investors keep an eye on the situation in Europe and the drama surrounding the Greek bailout referendum.

The Fed will conclude its two-day meeting with an interest rate decision and statement at 12:30pm ET, followed by Fed chairman Ben Bernanke's news conference at 2:15pm ET.

Ahead of that, investors will be keying on the monthly ADP report on private sector employment for October.

Economists think the economy added 100,000 private sector jobs last month, slightly higher than the 91,000 registered in September.

Many of the nation's chain stores will report their individual October sales results this morning, closely watched as a possible indicator of how the holiday season may go.

Tuesday, November 1, 2011

Stocks close much lower...

Traders covered positons as we moved closer to the close...clearly afraid to hold overnight.

Dow -297
Nas -77
S&P -35 to 1218

Nothing much to report other than this market is clearly held hostage by Europe...ONCE AGAIN!!

It's getting a little bit old.

Stocks move back down...

Dow Jones reports a government spokesman as saying the Greek referendum on continuing with the EU bailouts will be moving forward. This contrasts with an earlier statement - which temporarily boosted the markets - that the idea was "dead." Stocks have moved back near session lows.

Stocks improving....

Following the last news from Greece, stocks are rebounding. 

Dow -181
Nas -52
S&P -22 to 1231

Leading stocks:

Ulta Cosmetics +3.00 to 70.29
Acme Packet +3.11 to 39.32
Costco +0.84 to 84.02
American Tower +2.52 to 57.60
Autozone +3.18 to 326.80

Yee Haw!!!

Papandreou's call for a referendum on the EU bailout is "basically dead," says a PASOK party official, as reported by a Greek journalist. Stocks and the euro shoot higher as Europe is fixed again!

Isn't this stupid that we are being held hostage to news coming out of Europe???  The market is now coming off a bottom here.

1:15 pm update...

Stocks still lower across the board...no buying so far.

Dow -293
Nas -81
S&P -34 to 1218

The Volatility Index is spiking higher up 7.11 to 37.07.  That's a big move for the VIX.

Possible relief on mortgage...

The Fed announces borrowers who were financially harmed during the mortgage foreclosure process by GMAC Mortgage, HSBC Finance, SunTrust Mortgage, or EMC Mortgage can request a free independent review to potentially receive compensation from the lenders in question.

At 11 am...

Stocks are still broadly lower, as all sectors are selling off.

Dow -218
Nas -54
S&P -25

Treasury yields are lower as well as the 10 year Treasury is back under 2%.

Ha!!! Are you kidding me???

Contrary to an earlier report, Groupon (GRPN) is keeping the anticipated price range for its IPO at $16-$18/share, according to a just-filed S-1. This would indicate an IPO size of $480-$540M, and a value for the company of $10.1-$11.4B.

Let it go up.  This will be one of the great IPO flops of all-time.  Give it a month, then short with both hands!!!

Stocks under pressure at open...

More European BS here at the open.  Traders using the European uncertainty to try to take away recent gains. 

Dow -236 to 11715
Nas -60
S&P -27 to 1225

Need to pay attention to the 1200 level on the S&P.  We need to hold that level if we are going to move forward.  Earnings for the most part have been positive, so stocks should move higher from here.

JNJ Baby Shampoo Dangerous??

Johnson & Johnson (JNJ) faces increasing pressure from a coalition of health and environment groups over its iconic Johnson's Baby Shampoo. The Campaign for Safe Cosmetics is pushing the company to "immediately" remove trace amounts of what it calls dangerous chemicals from the shampoo, while JNJ says will only gradually phase out the chemicals in question - pointing out they met regulatory approval.

Apple may ditch Mac Book Pro...

Fresh off a strong quarter for Mac shipments, Apple (AAPL) may be looking to overhaul its lineup. AppleInsider's sources claim the Mac Pro will be phased out in time, due to weak sales and the ability of cheaper systems to address high-end needs. At the same time, a Japanese site reports Apple will expand its MacBook Air offerings to include a 15-inch model.

Fed starts meeting today...

The Fed is due to start a two-day policy meeting today but is deeply divided about what to do next against the background of stubbonly higher unemployment and inflation of 3.9%. Three hawks reckon the Fed has already done too much while two doves believe it needs to do more, including tolerating even higher prices.

Pfizer beats...

Pfizer Inc. (PFE). The drugmaker reported better-than-expected quarterly results, helped by sales growth of its prescription drugs in emerging markets and its animal health, nutritionals and consumer healthcare products. It earned $3.74 billion, or 48 cents per share in the third quarter, including a $1.3 billion after-tax gain on the recent sale of its Capsugel business.

Good Morning...

Sizable losses for U.S. stocks ruined all sorts of "best month since" stats for Wall Street, and it looks like November won't get off to a much better start.

Stock index futures are sharply lower this morning, and world stock markets are also selling off on news that Greece will put the recent bailout plan to a referendum.

Monday, October 31, 2011

Ouch...we didn't want that kind of close...

Well, instead of making a comeback, stocks sold off hard in the last hour to close at the lows of the day:

Dow -276
Nas 52
S&P -31

Blame more political uncertainty in Europe yet again.  Even with today's performance, October was a good one for stocks.  Let's hope we have seen the lows for the year.

Stocks reporting after the bell today...

Here are a few that we follow, reporting tonight after the close:

Avalon Bay (AVB)
Herbalife (HLF)
Allstate (ALL)
Anadarko Petroleum (APC)

There are some gainers...

Here are a few stocks that are bucking the trend today:

Polypore Int'l (PPO) +1.05 to 53.65
Dollar Tree (DLTR) +1.59 to 80.46
Apple (AAPL) +2.07 to 407.04
Family Dollar (FDO) +1.07 to 59.09
Perrigo (PRGO) +1.06 to 91.00
Intuitive Surgical (ISRG) +2.32 to 438.85
Hansen Natural (HANS) +3.02 to 89.74

At 2:40 pm...

More of the same.  Only groups moving higher are Utilities and REIT's...in other words traders are moving into the high dividend payers.

Dow -165
Nas -31
S&P -18

At 1:00 pm...

Stocks having a rough day.

Dow -181
Nas -33
S&P -19

I don't think it is as bad as it looks.  I think we still have a chance to rally this afternoon.

Apple selling out of iPhone 4S...

Apple (AAPL) is outperforming after R.W. Baird says its checks show Best Buy (BBY) is sold out of the iPhone 4S at "the vast majority" of locations. In addition, UBS is joining in on speculation that China Telecom (CHA), which added 9M subscribers in Q3, will soon offer the iPhone for its EV-DO 3G network.

Wells Fargo and Bank of America rethink $5 Debit Card Fee...

Wells Fargo (WFC) cancels a proposed $3 debit-card fee, following a bigger-than-expected backlash from consumers over the charges big banks tried to tag consumers with after the Durbin Amendment limited debit card swipe fees. Waiting in the wings: BofA (BAC) rumored to be mulling over its own unpopular $5 monthly fee.

Oppenheimer likes Cisco...

Oppenheimer is making a bullish call on Cisco (CSCO), claiming its checks suggest  the company will meet FQ1 estimates (results due next Wednesday) and "build momentum" for FQ2. Meanwhile, RBC is upgrading rival Juniper (JNPR) to Outperform, echoing Morgan Keegan's call that new products will drive growth.

Cisco's chart is not looking to bad these days:

At 10:30 am...

Stocks are selling off.  Looks like traders decided to sell the futures last night, and so far that is carrying over to today's action.  Something tells me that we may get some buying as the day wears on.  Let's see what happens.

Right now:

Dow -148
Nas -33
S&P -17 to 1267

Today's Upgrades and Downgrades...

These are some of Monday’s top analyst upgrades, downgrades, and initiations seen from Wall Street research calls.

Aetna Inc. (NYSE: AET) Raised to Conviction Buy List at Goldman Sachs.

AMERIGROUP Corporation (NYSE: AGP) Raised to Buy at Goldman Sachs.

Eni SpA (NYSE: E) Raised to Buy at S&P.

JB Hunt Transport Services Inc. (NASDAQ: JBHT) Cut to Hold at Stifel Nicolaus.

Juniper Networks, Inc. (NYSE: JNPR) Raised to Outperform at RBC.

The Kroger Co. (NYSE: KR) Started as Neutral at JPMorgan.

News Corp. (NASDAQ: NWSA) Started as Neutral at UBS.

RPC, Inc. (NYSE: RES) Raised to Buy at Canaccord Genuity.

Safeway Inc. (NYSE: SWY) Started as Neutral at JPMorgan.

Salesforce.com (NYSE: CRM) Cut to Equal-weight at Global Equities Research.

SanDisk Corporation (NASDAQ: SNDK) Cut to Neutral at Stern Agee; named value stock of the day at Zacks.

Tanger Factory Outlet Centers Inc. (NYSE: SKT) Cut to Neutral at Credit Suisse.

TMS International Corp. (NYSE: TMS) Started as Outperform with $11 target at Credit Suisse.

Vodafone Group Plc (NYSE: VOD) Cut to Underperform as Bear of the Day at Zacks.

Watson Pharmaceuticals, Inc. (NYSE: WPI) named as Bull of the Day at Zacks.

Weyerhaeuser Co. (NYSE: WY) Raised to Hold at Deutsche Bank.

Whole Foods Market Inc. (NASDAQ: WFM) Started as Neutral at JPMorgan.

Some decent news from Netflix...

Netflix Inc. (NFLX). The company said it has extended its license agreement with ABC Television Group, a division of Walt Disney Co (DIS), to continue to stream TV shows over the Internet. With the extension of the existing license agreement, Netflix will also add new TV show episodes from ABC Studios, Disney Channel and the ABC Family to its existing library, it said in a statement.

Loew's Corp. misses earnings...

Loews Corp. (L). The company posted third-quarter earnings below analysts' expectations, hurt by higher catastrophe losses and lower revenue at its biggest holding CNA Financial (CNA). Net income attributable to Loews rose to $162 million, or 40 cents per share, from $36 million, or 9 cents per share, a year ago.


L is currently down 0.94 to 40.37

Stocks open lower...

Stocks are opening  lower on creeping doubts about the European debt crisis solution.


Wall Street is on track to post some impressive October numbers as today is the month's final trading day. 

At this point, the Dow is poised to post its best monthly point gain on record and its best monthly percentage gain since January 1987.

The S&P 500 is on track for its second best monthly gain ever, trailing only October 1974.

Sunday, October 30, 2011

Update on our Stars 20 Portfolio....

It has been a pretty decent October for stocks, Our Stars 20 Portfolio is up 12.22% since October 1.

Top Performers:

Wellcare (WCG) +30.04%
Under Armour (UA) +29.94%
Panera Bread (PNRA) +28.88%
Biogen Idec (BIIB) +27.45%
Deckers (DECK) +26.30%
Lulumon (LULU) +19.00%

Other Gainers:

Starbucks (SBUX) +13.97%
Nike (NKE) +13.14%
Whole Foods (WFM) +12.77%
Chipotle (CMG) +12.69%
Visa (V) +10.94%
Ulta Salon & Cosmetics (ULTA) +8.52%
McDonalds (MCD) +6.23%
Apple (AAPL) +6.20%
Alexion Pharmaceuticals (ALXN) +6.04%
IBM (IBM) +4.14%
Dominion Resources (D) +1.18%
Amazon.com (AMZN) +0.50%

Just two Losers:

Cerner (CERN) -4.99%
Perrigo (PRGO -7.38%

Friday, October 28, 2011

Stocks close mixed...

Stocks closed a wild week with a quiet ending, as the Dow eked out a gain to cap its fifth straight winning week. The day started on a down note, as soaring Italian bond yields reminded that the eurozone debt crisis is hardly over. The euro gave back a bit of yesterday’s gains, and Treasurys recouped some of their big drop. NYSE losers outnumbered gainers seven to six.

Oils, medical, and gaming stocks led the way.

Dow +22 to 12231
Nas -1 to 2737
S&P unch at 1285

Have a great chilly weekend!!!  I'll try to post some charts if I get the chance.

This is too funny...

An ironic footnote to the SEC's punishment of FINRA over document-altering: The current head of the SEC - Mary Schapiro - led FINRA at the time of the alleged transgressions. A SEC spokesperson says Schapiro wasn't involved in the enforcement action.

Time to buy Express Scripts....

Here is discussion on video from the Street.com:

http://www.thestreet.com/_yahoo/video/11291743/with-or-without-medco-express-scripts-looks-good.html?cm_ven=YAHOOV&cm_cat=FREE&cm_ite=NA&s=1#1245644289001

Green Mountain to build plant in Virginia...

Green Mountain Coffee Roasters, Inc. (GMCR), a leader in specialty coffee and coffeemakers, today announced it has chosen Isle of Wight County, Virginia as the future home of a new manufacturing and distribution facility. The Company has agreed to purchase a 330,000 square foot building on a 64 acre parcel of land in Isle of Wight County, Virginia for $15 million, with plans to invest up to $180 million over the initial five years of the facility’s operations. Pending completion of its due diligence and finalization of incentive award agreements with the Commonwealth of Virginia and Isle of Wight County, GMCR expects to consummate the purchase in December 2011.

The Isle of Wight production facility will house coffee roasting, grinding, flavoring and packaging for GMCR’s Specialty Coffee business unit. Within five years, it’s estimated the new facility will have as many as 800 employees. GMCR has actively started to recruit for the new facility with commencement of site fit-up work planned for December 2011, pending final site due diligence.

Meanwhile Green Mountain's chart has been looking like a Red Mountain of late:

Stamps.com breaks higher...

Stamps.com (STMP) skyrockets $6.18 to a new high of $32.11 after reporting Q3 revenue of $25.9M (+20% Y/Y) and EPS of $0.37, beating consensus by $1.4M and $0.08. The company is lifting its 2011 revenue guidance range by $2.5M, to $92.5M-$102.5M, and its EPS range by $0.10, to $1.20-$1.40.

Stamps.com is up 139% YTD, partly thanks to the USPS' rate hikes and cost cuts.

Nu Skin continues its run...

Nu Skin Enterprises (NUS) is edging up to a new high and is on pace for its seventh straight daily gain. All six prior gains have come in above-average volume, which points to professional buying. Nu Skin Enterprises cleared a flat base in July and has since tested its 10-week line a couple of times.

NUS is up 0.64 to 50.22


Biogen breaks out to new highs...

Biotech firm Biogen Idec beat third-quarter expectations on both the top and bottom lines Friday, but it declined to raise its already conservative guidance. 

Biogen (BIIB) reported revenue of $1.31 billion, up 11% from the year-ago quarter. Earnings per share rose 19% to $1.61. Analysts polled by Thomson Reuters, on average, had expected sales of $1.26 billion and profit of $1.51 a share.

Higher-than-expected sales of Biogen's two leading drugs, Avonex and Tysabri, drove the results. Both of them treat multiple sclerosis, and together they account for more than half of the company's revenue.

Biogen's full-year guidance was the same as last quarter, except it refined its sales-growth estimate from "low to midsingle digits" to simply "midsingle digits." Profit guidance, however, appears to be very conservative compared with what analysts expect; EPS is forecast "above $5.70" while analysts' consensus is $5.88.

Shares are up 2% in mid-day trading, enough for another all-time high after the stock was hoisted aloft three days ago by good trial results on Biogen's next MS drug, BG-12. That product, which unlike the previous drugs is taken orally, has had analysts seeing blockbuster potential.

"Overall a solid quarter that could push the stock modestly up today — however, clearly investor focus here is not on 2011 financial results," analyst Mark Schoenebaum of ISI Group wrote in an email before the open.

On a conference call with analysts, CEO George Scangos said Biogen plans to file for official FDA approval of BG-12 in the first half of next year.

Las Vegas Sands sees clear sailing...

Las Vegas Sands (LVS) CEO Sandy Alderson says on an earnings conference call it's all systems go for forward revenue momentum in U.S., Singapore, and Macau markets. "We see absolutely no reason, again, no catalyst at hand, which would change the upward trend we have been experiencing." Shares are up 8.5% after the company released its Q3 report.

Not necessarily the guy you want to listen to.  He has been wrong countless times before. 

Have housing prices bottomed???

Results from some home builders seem to indicate that the industry may be hitting a bottom. Pulte (PHM) and Ryland (RYL) reported narrower quarterly losses from a year earlier, while Meritage (MTH) swung to a quarterly loss from the prior year's profit. Plus new home sales jumped 5.7% last month. "Better days are ahead," Ryland CEO Larry Nicholson believes.

Deckers hits new highs...

Deckers (DECK +9%) makes a new 52-week high after posting a strong Q3 report. The company, which is seeing booming sales of its UGG boots and aggressively expanding into Europe, expects Q4 revenue to grow 29% Y/Y, above prior guidance of 22%.

Deckers owns the UGGS brand as well as a few other popular European brands.

Today's Upgrades and Downgrades...

These are some of this Friday’s top analyst upgrades, downgrades, and initiations seen from Wall Street research calls this morning.

Advanced Micro Devices, Inc. (NYSE: AMD) Raised to Outperform at Wells Fargo.

ExxonMobil Corporation (NYSE: XOM) reiterated Buy with $100 target at Argus.

First Solar Inc. (NASDAQ: FSLR) Maintained Buy but cut target to $90 at Argus.

Gardner Denver, Inc. (NYSE: GDI) named Value Stock of the Day at Zacks.

j2 Global Communications (NASDAQ: JCOM) Raised to Outperform as Bull of the Day at Zacks.

McDermott International Inc. (NYSE: MDR) Cut to Market Perform at William Blair.

Occidental Petroleum (NYSE: OXY) Raised to Outperform and $135 target at Credit Suisse.

Pan American Silver Corp. (NASDAQ: PAAS) Cut to Sector Perform at CIBC.

Plexus Corporation (NASDAQ: PLXS) named Bear of the Day at Zacks.

Potash Corp. of Saskatchewan (NYSE: POT) Cut to Sector Perform at Scotia (late-Thursday).

Spectrum Brands Inc. (NYSE: SPB) Started as Outperform with $35 target at Credit Suisse.

Sprint Nextel Corporation (NYSE: S) Raised to Outperform at Macquarie.

Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co. Ltd. (NYSE: TSM) Raised to Buy at BNP Paribas.

Virgin Media, Inc. (NASDAQ: VMED) Cut to Equal-weight at Morgan Stanley.

Whole Foods Market, Inc. (NASDAQ: WFM) Raised to Neutral at Credit Suisse

At 11:35 am....

Stocks are working their way higher, which is quite a feat after yesterday's 300 point runup, and then seeing futures this morning pointing to a 100 plus point drop.

A very positive tape.  Let's see if it holds.

Dow +22
Nas +2
S&P +1

Leaders:

Baidu +6.25
Amazon +7.05
Walter Energy +3.77
Green Mountain Coffee +4.41
Las Vegas Sands +3.02
Mastercard +5.46
Salesforce.com +5.42
Travelzoo +2.20
Cliffs Natural Resources +3.46
Amerigroup +4.24
Vistaprint +3.38
Deckers +9.51
Intuitive Surgical +6.98

Coinstar to raise prices at Redbox machines...

Shares of Coinstar (CSTR) turn lower stung in part by an announcement in the company's Q3 report that it's raising prices on standard def DVD rentals to $1.20 from $1.00. Also weighing on shares is late word that a 60-day delay on DVD rentals is being bandied around by Hollywood movie studios, aimed at helping boost their DVD sales and online purchases.

Hmm...this sounds familiar.

CSTR is currently down 4.88 to 48.16

Consumer Sentiment improves...

October Consumer Sentiment: 60.9 vs. 58 expected, 57.5 preliminary and 59.4 in September. Expectations 51.8 vs. 47 preliminary and 49.4 in September. Current conditions 75.1 vs. 73.8 preliminary and 59.4 in September.

Samsung takes smartphone lead...

Samsung (SSNLF.PK) grabbed 23.8% of the market for smartphones in Q3, breezing past Apple (AAPL) (14.6%) for the No. 1 spot, Strategy Analytics says. Nokia (NOK) is in third place with 14.4%, but remains the overall leading provider of handsets with a 27.3% share. Samsung is No. 2 with 22.6%.

Market mixed after a lower open...

Stocks are holding up quite well in here considering futures were pointing to a much lower open.

Dow -37
Nas -12
S&P -6 to 1278

Here's something interesting for you:

The Silver ETF (SLV) is up 3.5% right now, and

The double short Silver ETF (ZSL) is up 1% as well.

REALLY???  How is that possible???  WOW, are these ETF's broken.

The seesaw continues at Las Vegas Sands...

Las Vegas Sands Corp. (LVS). The company posted better-than-expected revenue in Asia and rode a rebound in U.S. growth on Thursday, calming fears that economic weakness would discourage leisure travel and gaming. Sands reported an adjusted net income of $444.8 million, or 55 cents a share, in the third quarter, compared with $265.2 million, or 34 cents a share, a year earlier.


LVS is up 1.50 to 47.10 premarket.  This stock has been in a trading range between 38 and 50 for about a year...check the chart out below:

Baidu soars after earnings...

Baidu Inc. (BIDU). The Chinese search engine forecast strong sales that topped Wall Street estimates, after reporting robust quarterly earnings, shrugging off concerns that a weak economy could hit advertisers. It expects fourth-quarter revenue of $691.4 million to $711.0 million. For the third quarter, Baidu reported net income of $295 million, or 84 cents a share.


Baidu is trading up 10 to 147 in premarket trading.

Electronic Arts beats estimates...

Electronic Arts Inc. (ERTS). The video game maker’s second-quarter results beat Wall Street estimates and the company raised its earnings forecast because of the upcoming holiday title "Star Wars: The Old Republic," which it expects to be a hit. The company's adjusted earnings per share was 5 cents per share. The company raised its full year outlook to a range of 75 cents to 90 cents per share.


The guidance going forward is a little shy of expectations and the stock is down slightly in premarket trading.

Good morning...

Wall Street's wild ride may calm down a bit today, following the huge Thursday rally prompted by the latest proposed solutions to the European debt crisis.

The Dow remains on track for its best monthly percentage gain since January 1987 and its best-ever monthly point gain, while the S&P 500 is on course for its best monthly percentage gain since October 1974.

But it's also important to note that October's huge gains haven't quite yet made up the third quarter's losses.

The week will end with a handful of economic reports: the government is out with personal income and spending figures for September at 8:30am ET.

Economists predict a 0.3% increase for income and a 0.6% jump in consumer spending. In August, income had been up 0.3% while spending fell 0.1%.

At 9:55am ET, the University of Michigan's October consumer sentiment index is seen rising to 58.5 from September's final reading of 57.5.