Wednesday, November 2, 2011

Don't get me started on ETFs...

"The market has become one big fat ETF, deal with it," writes Josh Brown, noting the average CBOE Implied Correlation Index has hit a stratospheric 78.21 recently. "It's a binary market - risk-off or risk-on depending on which side of the bed any given finance minister in Brussels wakes up on that morning."

At 2:50 pm....

As Fed Chaiman Bernanke speaks, the market is moving higher.  After the press release, the Dow had fallen back to only up 60 points.

Dow +163
Nas +22
S&P +16 to 1234

House puts freeze on any new wireless taxes...

The House yesterday approved a five-year freeze on any new state and local taxes imposed on cellphones and other wireless services, including wireless broadband access. Wireless customers reportedly now pay 16.3% in taxes and fees, more than double the average rate of 7.4% on other goods and services. A bill still must pass the Senate and be signed by the president.

Have you seen how many taxes are on your cellphone bill???

FOMC makes no new moves, but hints that economy is starting to strengthen...

Fed Open Market Committee: No move on talked-about big buys of mortgage-backed securities. No change to benchmark rate plans (to freeze them near zero until mid-2013). Operation Twist goes on. The lone dissenter this time was Charles Evans, who wanted more accommodation.

Growth "strengthened somewhat" in Q3, but labor market's still weak and unemployment "elevated." Inflation appears to have moderated with energy and some commodities off peaks. No large-scale MBS buys but principal reinvestment will go on. Next up: Bernanke speaks at 2:15 p.m. EDT.

Noon update...

Stocks are holding earlier gains as traders wait for the latest Fed Meeting statement to be read at 12:30 pm.  The market is also accepting of the Greek referendum that has been proposed.

Dow +186
Nas +32
S&P +20 to 1238

All 10 S&P sectors are higher.

Wellcare blows out earnings...

WellCare Health Plans Inc. said Wednesday its third quarter net income more than doubled as Medicare prescription drug premiums boosted revenue and the insurer again raised its 2011 earnings forecast.

The Tampa, Fla., company earned $88.3 million, or $2.03 per share, in the three months that ended Sept. 30. That compares with earnings of $42.9 million, or $1 per share, in last year's quarter.

Stripping out one-time costs, WellCare said it earned $2.15 per share in the third quarter.

Revenue climbed 11 percent to $1.54 billion.

The performance trumped Wall Street expectations. Analysts surveyed by FactSet expected, on average, earnings of $1.31 per share on about $1.5 billion in revenue.

WellCare provides managed care for government-sponsored health plans like Medicare and Medicaid. Its enrollment grew 10 percent to 2.4 million people, compared with the same quarter last year.

WCG is currently up 3.55 to 51.32

This is the stock that dropped from 137 to 20 when the FBI raided its headquarters back in 2007.  Looks like it finally has its troubles behind them.  Here's the long term chart:

PEET reports in-line...

Peet's Coffee & Tea Inc. (PEET) reported third quarter 2011 earnings per share of 28 cents, which surpassed the Zacks Consensus Estimate by a penny. The results were in line with the prior-year period earnings.  Including the anticipated settlement and legal costs of a class action lawsuit of $2.2 million after tax, reported earnings came in at 11 cents per share in the third-quarter of 2011 versus 28 cents.

The company affirms its 2011 earnings will be at the higher end of the previous guidance range of $1.43 to $1.50. In addition, Peet’s expects its 2011 reported earnings to be at the higher end of the $1.27 to $1.34 range, including litigation-related expenses of 16 cents per share.

Further, Peet’s anticipates its 2012 earnings to be in the range of $1.70 to $1.80.


I guess they don't like the litigation expense!!!  PEET is down 3.88 to 57.55 this morning.

Career Education falls short...

Career Education's (CECO) Q3 falls wide of the mark on a sharp drop in new student enrollment. The company reports an EPS of $0.15 on revenue of $431M, well below consensus expectations for an EPS of $0.34 on revenue of $457M. Additionally, the company announces its CEO Gary McCullough has resigned and appoints Chairman Steve Lesnik to the post.

CECO is getting hammered, down 6.38 to 9.57 (-40%)

Stocks gap higher on open...

I guess we are seeing a little relief rally this morning as traders digest all the world's news over night.  We saw a large reversal in the Chinese market to close much higher and I guess that is setting the tone.

Dow +133
Nas +19
S&P +15 to 1233

This VIX is down 1.00 to 33.85

Garmin says shipments fell...but raises forcast...

Garmin Ltd. (GRMN). The navigation device maker posted a lower quarterly profit as shipments fell, but raised its full-year forecast on higher margins. It forecast revenue of $2.6 billion and pro-forma earnings of $2.30-$2.40 a share. Garmin's third-quarter net income was $150.4 million, or 77 cents a share, down from $279.6 million, or $1.44 a share, a year ago.

GRMN is up 1.57 to 35.74 this morning.

Mastercard beats...stock flies...

MasterCard (MA): Q3 EPS of $5.63 beats by $0.82. Revenue of $1.81B (+27.3% Y/Y) beats by $100M.

Gross dollar volume of transactions grew 18.1% Y/Y, up from Q2's 16.4%. 13.6% growth in U.S. dollar volume, 20.4% growth in international volume. Processed transactions rose 20.5%, up from Q2's 17.4%. Free cash flow was $991M, up 72% Y/Y.

MA is currently up 27.72 to 362.02

Nike upgraded by Goldman...

Nike (NKE) jumps after Goldman upgrades to "Buy" and puts the stock on its "Conviction Buy" list. With shares at an all-time high, Goldman identifies Nike as a category leader and an outperformer in the S&P, also seeing the 2012 Olympics as a catalyst for even better performance.

NKE is up 1.45 to 95.33

Today's Upgrades and Downgrades...

These are some of Wednesday’s top analyst upgrades, downgrades, and initiations seen from Wall Street research calls.

American Water Works Company, Inc. (NYSE: AWK) added to Strong Buy List at Zacks.

Bank of America Corporation (NYSE: BAC) Cut to Hold at S&P Capital IQ (late-Tuesday).

Brookfield Infrastructure Partners LP (NYSE: BIP) reinstated as Outperform with $32 target at Credit Suisse.

Caterpillar Inc. (NYSE: CAT) Started as Overweight at Morgan Stanley.

Citigroup, Inc. (NYSE: C) Cut to Hold at S&P Capital IQ (late-Tuesday).

Corn Products International (NYSE: CPO) named Value Stock of the Day at Zacks.

Deere & Co. (NYSE: DE) Started as Underweight at Morgan Stanley.

Diamond Foods, Inc. (NASDAQ: DMND) Cut to Neutral at BofA/ML; Cut to Neutral at Janney.

Encana Corporation (NYSE: ECA) Cut to Neutral at BofA/ML.

Gap Inc. (NYSE: GPS) Raised to positive at Susquehanna.

Government Properties Income Trust (NYSE: GOV) Cut to Neutral at Janney.

Joy Global, Inc. (NASDAQ: JOYG) Started as Equalweight at Morgan Stanley.

J.P. Morgan Chase & Co. (NYSE: JPM) Cut to Hold at S&P Capital IQ (late-Tuesday).

OpenTable, Inc. (NASDAQ: OPEN) Cut to Neutral at BofA/ML; Cut to Market Perform at Morgan Keegan; Raised to Buy at ThinkEquity.

Seaspan Corporation (NYSE: SSW) Cut to Hold at Deutsche Bank.

Texas Roadhouse Inc. (NASDAQ: TXRH) Cut to Neutral at Credit Suisse.

United States Cellular Corporation (NYSE: USM) Cut to Underweight at Morgan Stanley.

Valero Energy Corporation (NYSE: VLO) Reiterated Buy with $35 target at Argus.

Discovery Channel posts better than expected results...

Discovery Communications Inc. (DISCA). The company reported better-than-expected quarterly results and the media company behind hit cable TV shows such as "Storm Chasers" and "Deadliest Catch" bumped up its full-year outlook. Its third-quarter net income rose to $237 million, or 59 cents a share.

CF Industries beats expectations...

CF Industries Holdings Inc. (CF). The fertilizer producer posted a spike in quarterly profit on Tuesday that widely beat Wall Street's expectations as the company successfully raised prices for nitrogen and phosphate. For the third quarter, it posted net income of $330.9 million, or $4.73 per share, compared with $48.2 million, or 67 cents per share, in the year-ago period.

CF is up 4 points to 162 premarket.

Sony slashes forecast to fourth straight loss...

Sony Corp (SNE) said it is headed for its fourth straight annual net loss, instead of a profit it forecast earlier, as Thai floods disrupted camera production, adding to losses from a soaring yen and price slides in its TVs and PCs in the United States and Europe.

SNE is trading down 7% premarket.

Comcast posts strong quarter...

Comcast Corp. (CMCSA). The cable operator posted a stronger quarterly profit, as its traditional cable business helped offset weaker results from two of its newer media properties, the NBC television network and Universal Pictures. It reported third-quarter net income of $908 million, or 33 cents a share. Revenue rose about 5 percent to $14.3 billion.

CMCSA stock is up slightly premarket.

Greek PM wins over cabinet...

Greek Prime Minister George Papandreou will be in the hot seat later when he will likely face a grilling from French President Nicolas Sarkozy and German Chancellor Angela Merkel about his surprise move to put the rescue package to a popular vote.

The market moved up and down yesterday based on this referendum.  In the morning, news came out that Sarkozy was pushing for a referendum, in the afternoon news came out that the referendum idea was dead, and the market rallied, then toward the close, the referendum was back on, and the market sold off. 

Looking at today's futures rally, this "referendum" thing might have been a one-day wonder, not surprising as that is how this market has been behaving.

"Headline of the Day" mode...total crap, but that is the market we are in.

Good Morning...

Stock index futures are pointing to a mild rebound at today's open as investors keep an eye on the situation in Europe and the drama surrounding the Greek bailout referendum.

The Fed will conclude its two-day meeting with an interest rate decision and statement at 12:30pm ET, followed by Fed chairman Ben Bernanke's news conference at 2:15pm ET.

Ahead of that, investors will be keying on the monthly ADP report on private sector employment for October.

Economists think the economy added 100,000 private sector jobs last month, slightly higher than the 91,000 registered in September.

Many of the nation's chain stores will report their individual October sales results this morning, closely watched as a possible indicator of how the holiday season may go.

Tuesday, November 1, 2011

Stocks close much lower...

Traders covered positons as we moved closer to the close...clearly afraid to hold overnight.

Dow -297
Nas -77
S&P -35 to 1218

Nothing much to report other than this market is clearly held hostage by Europe...ONCE AGAIN!!

It's getting a little bit old.

Stocks move back down...

Dow Jones reports a government spokesman as saying the Greek referendum on continuing with the EU bailouts will be moving forward. This contrasts with an earlier statement - which temporarily boosted the markets - that the idea was "dead." Stocks have moved back near session lows.

Stocks improving....

Following the last news from Greece, stocks are rebounding. 

Dow -181
Nas -52
S&P -22 to 1231

Leading stocks:

Ulta Cosmetics +3.00 to 70.29
Acme Packet +3.11 to 39.32
Costco +0.84 to 84.02
American Tower +2.52 to 57.60
Autozone +3.18 to 326.80

Yee Haw!!!

Papandreou's call for a referendum on the EU bailout is "basically dead," says a PASOK party official, as reported by a Greek journalist. Stocks and the euro shoot higher as Europe is fixed again!

Isn't this stupid that we are being held hostage to news coming out of Europe???  The market is now coming off a bottom here.

1:15 pm update...

Stocks still lower across the board...no buying so far.

Dow -293
Nas -81
S&P -34 to 1218

The Volatility Index is spiking higher up 7.11 to 37.07.  That's a big move for the VIX.

Possible relief on mortgage...

The Fed announces borrowers who were financially harmed during the mortgage foreclosure process by GMAC Mortgage, HSBC Finance, SunTrust Mortgage, or EMC Mortgage can request a free independent review to potentially receive compensation from the lenders in question.

At 11 am...

Stocks are still broadly lower, as all sectors are selling off.

Dow -218
Nas -54
S&P -25

Treasury yields are lower as well as the 10 year Treasury is back under 2%.

Ha!!! Are you kidding me???

Contrary to an earlier report, Groupon (GRPN) is keeping the anticipated price range for its IPO at $16-$18/share, according to a just-filed S-1. This would indicate an IPO size of $480-$540M, and a value for the company of $10.1-$11.4B.

Let it go up.  This will be one of the great IPO flops of all-time.  Give it a month, then short with both hands!!!

Stocks under pressure at open...

More European BS here at the open.  Traders using the European uncertainty to try to take away recent gains. 

Dow -236 to 11715
Nas -60
S&P -27 to 1225

Need to pay attention to the 1200 level on the S&P.  We need to hold that level if we are going to move forward.  Earnings for the most part have been positive, so stocks should move higher from here.

JNJ Baby Shampoo Dangerous??

Johnson & Johnson (JNJ) faces increasing pressure from a coalition of health and environment groups over its iconic Johnson's Baby Shampoo. The Campaign for Safe Cosmetics is pushing the company to "immediately" remove trace amounts of what it calls dangerous chemicals from the shampoo, while JNJ says will only gradually phase out the chemicals in question - pointing out they met regulatory approval.

Apple may ditch Mac Book Pro...

Fresh off a strong quarter for Mac shipments, Apple (AAPL) may be looking to overhaul its lineup. AppleInsider's sources claim the Mac Pro will be phased out in time, due to weak sales and the ability of cheaper systems to address high-end needs. At the same time, a Japanese site reports Apple will expand its MacBook Air offerings to include a 15-inch model.

Fed starts meeting today...

The Fed is due to start a two-day policy meeting today but is deeply divided about what to do next against the background of stubbonly higher unemployment and inflation of 3.9%. Three hawks reckon the Fed has already done too much while two doves believe it needs to do more, including tolerating even higher prices.

Pfizer beats...

Pfizer Inc. (PFE). The drugmaker reported better-than-expected quarterly results, helped by sales growth of its prescription drugs in emerging markets and its animal health, nutritionals and consumer healthcare products. It earned $3.74 billion, or 48 cents per share in the third quarter, including a $1.3 billion after-tax gain on the recent sale of its Capsugel business.

Good Morning...

Sizable losses for U.S. stocks ruined all sorts of "best month since" stats for Wall Street, and it looks like November won't get off to a much better start.

Stock index futures are sharply lower this morning, and world stock markets are also selling off on news that Greece will put the recent bailout plan to a referendum.

Monday, October 31, 2011

Ouch...we didn't want that kind of close...

Well, instead of making a comeback, stocks sold off hard in the last hour to close at the lows of the day:

Dow -276
Nas 52
S&P -31

Blame more political uncertainty in Europe yet again.  Even with today's performance, October was a good one for stocks.  Let's hope we have seen the lows for the year.

Stocks reporting after the bell today...

Here are a few that we follow, reporting tonight after the close:

Avalon Bay (AVB)
Herbalife (HLF)
Allstate (ALL)
Anadarko Petroleum (APC)

There are some gainers...

Here are a few stocks that are bucking the trend today:

Polypore Int'l (PPO) +1.05 to 53.65
Dollar Tree (DLTR) +1.59 to 80.46
Apple (AAPL) +2.07 to 407.04
Family Dollar (FDO) +1.07 to 59.09
Perrigo (PRGO) +1.06 to 91.00
Intuitive Surgical (ISRG) +2.32 to 438.85
Hansen Natural (HANS) +3.02 to 89.74

At 2:40 pm...

More of the same.  Only groups moving higher are Utilities and REIT's...in other words traders are moving into the high dividend payers.

Dow -165
Nas -31
S&P -18

At 1:00 pm...

Stocks having a rough day.

Dow -181
Nas -33
S&P -19

I don't think it is as bad as it looks.  I think we still have a chance to rally this afternoon.

Apple selling out of iPhone 4S...

Apple (AAPL) is outperforming after R.W. Baird says its checks show Best Buy (BBY) is sold out of the iPhone 4S at "the vast majority" of locations. In addition, UBS is joining in on speculation that China Telecom (CHA), which added 9M subscribers in Q3, will soon offer the iPhone for its EV-DO 3G network.

Wells Fargo and Bank of America rethink $5 Debit Card Fee...

Wells Fargo (WFC) cancels a proposed $3 debit-card fee, following a bigger-than-expected backlash from consumers over the charges big banks tried to tag consumers with after the Durbin Amendment limited debit card swipe fees. Waiting in the wings: BofA (BAC) rumored to be mulling over its own unpopular $5 monthly fee.

Oppenheimer likes Cisco...

Oppenheimer is making a bullish call on Cisco (CSCO), claiming its checks suggest  the company will meet FQ1 estimates (results due next Wednesday) and "build momentum" for FQ2. Meanwhile, RBC is upgrading rival Juniper (JNPR) to Outperform, echoing Morgan Keegan's call that new products will drive growth.

Cisco's chart is not looking to bad these days:

At 10:30 am...

Stocks are selling off.  Looks like traders decided to sell the futures last night, and so far that is carrying over to today's action.  Something tells me that we may get some buying as the day wears on.  Let's see what happens.

Right now:

Dow -148
Nas -33
S&P -17 to 1267

Today's Upgrades and Downgrades...

These are some of Monday’s top analyst upgrades, downgrades, and initiations seen from Wall Street research calls.

Aetna Inc. (NYSE: AET) Raised to Conviction Buy List at Goldman Sachs.

AMERIGROUP Corporation (NYSE: AGP) Raised to Buy at Goldman Sachs.

Eni SpA (NYSE: E) Raised to Buy at S&P.

JB Hunt Transport Services Inc. (NASDAQ: JBHT) Cut to Hold at Stifel Nicolaus.

Juniper Networks, Inc. (NYSE: JNPR) Raised to Outperform at RBC.

The Kroger Co. (NYSE: KR) Started as Neutral at JPMorgan.

News Corp. (NASDAQ: NWSA) Started as Neutral at UBS.

RPC, Inc. (NYSE: RES) Raised to Buy at Canaccord Genuity.

Safeway Inc. (NYSE: SWY) Started as Neutral at JPMorgan.

Salesforce.com (NYSE: CRM) Cut to Equal-weight at Global Equities Research.

SanDisk Corporation (NASDAQ: SNDK) Cut to Neutral at Stern Agee; named value stock of the day at Zacks.

Tanger Factory Outlet Centers Inc. (NYSE: SKT) Cut to Neutral at Credit Suisse.

TMS International Corp. (NYSE: TMS) Started as Outperform with $11 target at Credit Suisse.

Vodafone Group Plc (NYSE: VOD) Cut to Underperform as Bear of the Day at Zacks.

Watson Pharmaceuticals, Inc. (NYSE: WPI) named as Bull of the Day at Zacks.

Weyerhaeuser Co. (NYSE: WY) Raised to Hold at Deutsche Bank.

Whole Foods Market Inc. (NASDAQ: WFM) Started as Neutral at JPMorgan.

Some decent news from Netflix...

Netflix Inc. (NFLX). The company said it has extended its license agreement with ABC Television Group, a division of Walt Disney Co (DIS), to continue to stream TV shows over the Internet. With the extension of the existing license agreement, Netflix will also add new TV show episodes from ABC Studios, Disney Channel and the ABC Family to its existing library, it said in a statement.

Loew's Corp. misses earnings...

Loews Corp. (L). The company posted third-quarter earnings below analysts' expectations, hurt by higher catastrophe losses and lower revenue at its biggest holding CNA Financial (CNA). Net income attributable to Loews rose to $162 million, or 40 cents per share, from $36 million, or 9 cents per share, a year ago.


L is currently down 0.94 to 40.37

Stocks open lower...

Stocks are opening  lower on creeping doubts about the European debt crisis solution.


Wall Street is on track to post some impressive October numbers as today is the month's final trading day. 

At this point, the Dow is poised to post its best monthly point gain on record and its best monthly percentage gain since January 1987.

The S&P 500 is on track for its second best monthly gain ever, trailing only October 1974.

Sunday, October 30, 2011

Update on our Stars 20 Portfolio....

It has been a pretty decent October for stocks, Our Stars 20 Portfolio is up 12.22% since October 1.

Top Performers:

Wellcare (WCG) +30.04%
Under Armour (UA) +29.94%
Panera Bread (PNRA) +28.88%
Biogen Idec (BIIB) +27.45%
Deckers (DECK) +26.30%
Lulumon (LULU) +19.00%

Other Gainers:

Starbucks (SBUX) +13.97%
Nike (NKE) +13.14%
Whole Foods (WFM) +12.77%
Chipotle (CMG) +12.69%
Visa (V) +10.94%
Ulta Salon & Cosmetics (ULTA) +8.52%
McDonalds (MCD) +6.23%
Apple (AAPL) +6.20%
Alexion Pharmaceuticals (ALXN) +6.04%
IBM (IBM) +4.14%
Dominion Resources (D) +1.18%
Amazon.com (AMZN) +0.50%

Just two Losers:

Cerner (CERN) -4.99%
Perrigo (PRGO -7.38%

Friday, October 28, 2011

Stocks close mixed...

Stocks closed a wild week with a quiet ending, as the Dow eked out a gain to cap its fifth straight winning week. The day started on a down note, as soaring Italian bond yields reminded that the eurozone debt crisis is hardly over. The euro gave back a bit of yesterday’s gains, and Treasurys recouped some of their big drop. NYSE losers outnumbered gainers seven to six.

Oils, medical, and gaming stocks led the way.

Dow +22 to 12231
Nas -1 to 2737
S&P unch at 1285

Have a great chilly weekend!!!  I'll try to post some charts if I get the chance.

This is too funny...

An ironic footnote to the SEC's punishment of FINRA over document-altering: The current head of the SEC - Mary Schapiro - led FINRA at the time of the alleged transgressions. A SEC spokesperson says Schapiro wasn't involved in the enforcement action.

Time to buy Express Scripts....

Here is discussion on video from the Street.com:

http://www.thestreet.com/_yahoo/video/11291743/with-or-without-medco-express-scripts-looks-good.html?cm_ven=YAHOOV&cm_cat=FREE&cm_ite=NA&s=1#1245644289001

Green Mountain to build plant in Virginia...

Green Mountain Coffee Roasters, Inc. (GMCR), a leader in specialty coffee and coffeemakers, today announced it has chosen Isle of Wight County, Virginia as the future home of a new manufacturing and distribution facility. The Company has agreed to purchase a 330,000 square foot building on a 64 acre parcel of land in Isle of Wight County, Virginia for $15 million, with plans to invest up to $180 million over the initial five years of the facility’s operations. Pending completion of its due diligence and finalization of incentive award agreements with the Commonwealth of Virginia and Isle of Wight County, GMCR expects to consummate the purchase in December 2011.

The Isle of Wight production facility will house coffee roasting, grinding, flavoring and packaging for GMCR’s Specialty Coffee business unit. Within five years, it’s estimated the new facility will have as many as 800 employees. GMCR has actively started to recruit for the new facility with commencement of site fit-up work planned for December 2011, pending final site due diligence.

Meanwhile Green Mountain's chart has been looking like a Red Mountain of late:

Stamps.com breaks higher...

Stamps.com (STMP) skyrockets $6.18 to a new high of $32.11 after reporting Q3 revenue of $25.9M (+20% Y/Y) and EPS of $0.37, beating consensus by $1.4M and $0.08. The company is lifting its 2011 revenue guidance range by $2.5M, to $92.5M-$102.5M, and its EPS range by $0.10, to $1.20-$1.40.

Stamps.com is up 139% YTD, partly thanks to the USPS' rate hikes and cost cuts.

Nu Skin continues its run...

Nu Skin Enterprises (NUS) is edging up to a new high and is on pace for its seventh straight daily gain. All six prior gains have come in above-average volume, which points to professional buying. Nu Skin Enterprises cleared a flat base in July and has since tested its 10-week line a couple of times.

NUS is up 0.64 to 50.22


Biogen breaks out to new highs...

Biotech firm Biogen Idec beat third-quarter expectations on both the top and bottom lines Friday, but it declined to raise its already conservative guidance. 

Biogen (BIIB) reported revenue of $1.31 billion, up 11% from the year-ago quarter. Earnings per share rose 19% to $1.61. Analysts polled by Thomson Reuters, on average, had expected sales of $1.26 billion and profit of $1.51 a share.

Higher-than-expected sales of Biogen's two leading drugs, Avonex and Tysabri, drove the results. Both of them treat multiple sclerosis, and together they account for more than half of the company's revenue.

Biogen's full-year guidance was the same as last quarter, except it refined its sales-growth estimate from "low to midsingle digits" to simply "midsingle digits." Profit guidance, however, appears to be very conservative compared with what analysts expect; EPS is forecast "above $5.70" while analysts' consensus is $5.88.

Shares are up 2% in mid-day trading, enough for another all-time high after the stock was hoisted aloft three days ago by good trial results on Biogen's next MS drug, BG-12. That product, which unlike the previous drugs is taken orally, has had analysts seeing blockbuster potential.

"Overall a solid quarter that could push the stock modestly up today — however, clearly investor focus here is not on 2011 financial results," analyst Mark Schoenebaum of ISI Group wrote in an email before the open.

On a conference call with analysts, CEO George Scangos said Biogen plans to file for official FDA approval of BG-12 in the first half of next year.

Las Vegas Sands sees clear sailing...

Las Vegas Sands (LVS) CEO Sandy Alderson says on an earnings conference call it's all systems go for forward revenue momentum in U.S., Singapore, and Macau markets. "We see absolutely no reason, again, no catalyst at hand, which would change the upward trend we have been experiencing." Shares are up 8.5% after the company released its Q3 report.

Not necessarily the guy you want to listen to.  He has been wrong countless times before. 

Have housing prices bottomed???

Results from some home builders seem to indicate that the industry may be hitting a bottom. Pulte (PHM) and Ryland (RYL) reported narrower quarterly losses from a year earlier, while Meritage (MTH) swung to a quarterly loss from the prior year's profit. Plus new home sales jumped 5.7% last month. "Better days are ahead," Ryland CEO Larry Nicholson believes.

Deckers hits new highs...

Deckers (DECK +9%) makes a new 52-week high after posting a strong Q3 report. The company, which is seeing booming sales of its UGG boots and aggressively expanding into Europe, expects Q4 revenue to grow 29% Y/Y, above prior guidance of 22%.

Deckers owns the UGGS brand as well as a few other popular European brands.

Today's Upgrades and Downgrades...

These are some of this Friday’s top analyst upgrades, downgrades, and initiations seen from Wall Street research calls this morning.

Advanced Micro Devices, Inc. (NYSE: AMD) Raised to Outperform at Wells Fargo.

ExxonMobil Corporation (NYSE: XOM) reiterated Buy with $100 target at Argus.

First Solar Inc. (NASDAQ: FSLR) Maintained Buy but cut target to $90 at Argus.

Gardner Denver, Inc. (NYSE: GDI) named Value Stock of the Day at Zacks.

j2 Global Communications (NASDAQ: JCOM) Raised to Outperform as Bull of the Day at Zacks.

McDermott International Inc. (NYSE: MDR) Cut to Market Perform at William Blair.

Occidental Petroleum (NYSE: OXY) Raised to Outperform and $135 target at Credit Suisse.

Pan American Silver Corp. (NASDAQ: PAAS) Cut to Sector Perform at CIBC.

Plexus Corporation (NASDAQ: PLXS) named Bear of the Day at Zacks.

Potash Corp. of Saskatchewan (NYSE: POT) Cut to Sector Perform at Scotia (late-Thursday).

Spectrum Brands Inc. (NYSE: SPB) Started as Outperform with $35 target at Credit Suisse.

Sprint Nextel Corporation (NYSE: S) Raised to Outperform at Macquarie.

Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co. Ltd. (NYSE: TSM) Raised to Buy at BNP Paribas.

Virgin Media, Inc. (NASDAQ: VMED) Cut to Equal-weight at Morgan Stanley.

Whole Foods Market, Inc. (NASDAQ: WFM) Raised to Neutral at Credit Suisse

At 11:35 am....

Stocks are working their way higher, which is quite a feat after yesterday's 300 point runup, and then seeing futures this morning pointing to a 100 plus point drop.

A very positive tape.  Let's see if it holds.

Dow +22
Nas +2
S&P +1

Leaders:

Baidu +6.25
Amazon +7.05
Walter Energy +3.77
Green Mountain Coffee +4.41
Las Vegas Sands +3.02
Mastercard +5.46
Salesforce.com +5.42
Travelzoo +2.20
Cliffs Natural Resources +3.46
Amerigroup +4.24
Vistaprint +3.38
Deckers +9.51
Intuitive Surgical +6.98

Coinstar to raise prices at Redbox machines...

Shares of Coinstar (CSTR) turn lower stung in part by an announcement in the company's Q3 report that it's raising prices on standard def DVD rentals to $1.20 from $1.00. Also weighing on shares is late word that a 60-day delay on DVD rentals is being bandied around by Hollywood movie studios, aimed at helping boost their DVD sales and online purchases.

Hmm...this sounds familiar.

CSTR is currently down 4.88 to 48.16

Consumer Sentiment improves...

October Consumer Sentiment: 60.9 vs. 58 expected, 57.5 preliminary and 59.4 in September. Expectations 51.8 vs. 47 preliminary and 49.4 in September. Current conditions 75.1 vs. 73.8 preliminary and 59.4 in September.

Samsung takes smartphone lead...

Samsung (SSNLF.PK) grabbed 23.8% of the market for smartphones in Q3, breezing past Apple (AAPL) (14.6%) for the No. 1 spot, Strategy Analytics says. Nokia (NOK) is in third place with 14.4%, but remains the overall leading provider of handsets with a 27.3% share. Samsung is No. 2 with 22.6%.

Market mixed after a lower open...

Stocks are holding up quite well in here considering futures were pointing to a much lower open.

Dow -37
Nas -12
S&P -6 to 1278

Here's something interesting for you:

The Silver ETF (SLV) is up 3.5% right now, and

The double short Silver ETF (ZSL) is up 1% as well.

REALLY???  How is that possible???  WOW, are these ETF's broken.

The seesaw continues at Las Vegas Sands...

Las Vegas Sands Corp. (LVS). The company posted better-than-expected revenue in Asia and rode a rebound in U.S. growth on Thursday, calming fears that economic weakness would discourage leisure travel and gaming. Sands reported an adjusted net income of $444.8 million, or 55 cents a share, in the third quarter, compared with $265.2 million, or 34 cents a share, a year earlier.


LVS is up 1.50 to 47.10 premarket.  This stock has been in a trading range between 38 and 50 for about a year...check the chart out below:

Baidu soars after earnings...

Baidu Inc. (BIDU). The Chinese search engine forecast strong sales that topped Wall Street estimates, after reporting robust quarterly earnings, shrugging off concerns that a weak economy could hit advertisers. It expects fourth-quarter revenue of $691.4 million to $711.0 million. For the third quarter, Baidu reported net income of $295 million, or 84 cents a share.


Baidu is trading up 10 to 147 in premarket trading.

Electronic Arts beats estimates...

Electronic Arts Inc. (ERTS). The video game maker’s second-quarter results beat Wall Street estimates and the company raised its earnings forecast because of the upcoming holiday title "Star Wars: The Old Republic," which it expects to be a hit. The company's adjusted earnings per share was 5 cents per share. The company raised its full year outlook to a range of 75 cents to 90 cents per share.


The guidance going forward is a little shy of expectations and the stock is down slightly in premarket trading.

Good morning...

Wall Street's wild ride may calm down a bit today, following the huge Thursday rally prompted by the latest proposed solutions to the European debt crisis.

The Dow remains on track for its best monthly percentage gain since January 1987 and its best-ever monthly point gain, while the S&P 500 is on course for its best monthly percentage gain since October 1974.

But it's also important to note that October's huge gains haven't quite yet made up the third quarter's losses.

The week will end with a handful of economic reports: the government is out with personal income and spending figures for September at 8:30am ET.

Economists predict a 0.3% increase for income and a 0.6% jump in consumer spending. In August, income had been up 0.3% while spending fell 0.1%.

At 9:55am ET, the University of Michigan's October consumer sentiment index is seen rising to 58.5 from September's final reading of 57.5.

Thursday, October 27, 2011

Stocks fade in last hour, but still have nice day...

Stocks hold on to earlier gains.  Actually, the Dow was up over 400 points in the last hour, but a little profit taking came in before the close.

Dow +339 to 12208
Nas +87
S&P +42 to 1284

So far, we are having the best October since the one following the 1987 crash.  Hopefully, no new news out of Europe overnight.

Earnings due out after the bell...

Las Vegas Sands (LVS)
Deckers (DECK)
Electronic Arts (ERTS)
Coinstar (CSTR)
Crocs (CROX)
Baidu (BIDU)
Stamps.com (STMP)
Flowserve (FLS)
Vistaprint (VPRT)

At 2:45 pm....

Stocks still looking strong.  Banks, Oils, Metals, and Techs exploding to the upside.

Dow +367
Nas +95
S&P +44 to 1286

Pretty decent reaction to news out of Europe.  Obviously traders were caught short.

New highs on the following stocks:

Whole Foods
O'Reilly Automotive
Red Hat
Simon Property Group
Under Armour
Mattel
Intuitive Surgical
Treehouse Foods
DSW
Limited bRands
Monsanto
Intel
Ralph Lauren
Cabot Oil and Gas
Electronic Arts
WalMart
Chevron

Solar stocks are soaring...

The risk trade is on, and that means solar stocks are soaring (KWT +9.2%). Shares could also be getting a lift from the German government's outlining of expected subsidy cuts, which removes some uncertainty about their magnitude. Some of the biggest winners: LDK +22.1%. STP +18.7%. FSLR +14.8%. YGE +15.4%.

Perrigo sells off on earnings release...

Perrigo Co posted a better-than-expected quarterly profit, but the generic drugmaker's revenue fell short of estimates as growth in its major segments lagged.  The company posted first-quarter revenue of $725.3 million, below market expectation of $750.1 million, according to Thomson Reuters I/B/E/S.

"Perrigo missed the top-line on both (consumer healthcare) and nutritional which raises some concern around fundamentals and growth in these segments," UBS analysts said in a note.

Consumer healthcare and the nutritionals segments together contribute almost two-thirds of the company's revenue.  Nutritionals revenue fell $3 million to $120 million as increased competition hurt sales of vitamins, minerals and dietary supplements category.  Consumer healthcare revenue rose 4 percent to $412 million, but fell short of market expectation.

Perrigo develops, manufactures and distributes over-the-counter and generic pharmaceuticals nutritional products, infant formulas, active pharmaceutical ingredients and pharmaceutical and medical diagnostic products.

For fiscal 2012, the company raised its adjusted earnings per share view to $4.65-$4.80 from $4.50-$4.65 a share.  "While we appreciate the increased (earnings per share) guidance, it was mostly tax rate driven...," UBS analysts said.

For the first quarter ended Sept. 24, Perrigo's net income fell to $70.5 million, or 75 cents a share, from $74.4 million, or 80 cents a share, a year ago.  Excluding items, it earned $1.10 a share, beating analysts' estimate of $1.05 a share.


PRGO is currently down 5.87 to 92.91

Valuations are compelling....

As long as the situation in Europe appears contained, at least for the time being, this market has some legs, says market strategist Joseph Tanious. Valuations are compelling, and if you look at the forward indicators, a lot of the headwinds that have been holding stocks back - are clearing.

His recommendation: rotate out of defensive and high-dividend stocks and into cyclicals.

You knew this was coming...

Research In Motion (RIMM) faces a rash of consumer lawsuits following its recent four-day BlackBerry outage. Shares were under pressure in the previous session after the company said it had delayed its Playbook 2.0 operating system until February.


RIMM was down earlier, now it is up 0.52 to 21.23 

At noon, stocks still climbing...

It's an all-out rally...

Dow +321 to 12190
Nas +75
S&P +36 to 1278

Next barrier to break thru is 1300 on the S&P.  A very strong rally that is starting to look like more than just a short squeeze.

Today's Upgrades and Downgrades...

These are some of this Thursday’s top analyst upgrades, downgrades, and initiations seen from Wall Street research calls this morning.


Alexion Pharmaceuticals, Inc. (NASDAQ: ALXN) named Bull of the Day at Zacks.

Bank of America Corporation (NYSE: BAC) Cut to Equal-weight at Morgan Stanley.

Ford Motor Co. (NYSE: F) Maintained Neutral and cut target to $14 from $16 at Credit Suisse.

Hospira Inc. (NYSE: HSP) Raised to Buy at BofA/ML, but named Bear of the Day at Zacks.

Itron Inc. (NASDAQ: ITRI) Started as Outperform with $60 target at Credit Suisse; maintained Buy and $50 target at Canaccord Genuity.

Kindred Healthcare, Inc. (NYSE: KND) named as Value stock of the day at Zacks.

Netflix, Inc. (NASDAQ: NFLX) Cut to Neutral at Citigroup (boy, how timely).

Praxair Inc. (NYSE: PX) Cut to Underperform from Buy at BofA/ML.

Range Resources Corporation (NYSE: RRC) Reiterated Sell at Canaccord Genuity.

Tim Hortons, Inc (NYSE: THI) Started as Neutral at Credit Suisse.

Urban Outfitters Inc. (NASDAQ: URBN) Raised to Buy at Citigroup.

Visa Inc. (NYSE: V) Cut to Market Perform at FBR

Stocks open much higher...

Stocks are flying in here as it looks like Shorts are getting hit hard.  Banks, Oils, Commodities, and tech are all moving higher.

Dow +242
Nas +57
S&P +28

Gold and Silver are moving higher as well.

Greek Debt deal well received...

News of the deal with private banks and insurers to take a 50% loss on Greek government bonds has sent world markets and U.S. stock index futures soaring this morning.

The cut is a voluntary one, and reduces Greece's debt burden by 100 billion euros.

The euro has jumped to a 7-week high and oil prices are also higher following that news.

The Greek debt deal should provide a significant positive boost to the U.S. markets, but there's still plenty of earnings and economic data in the day ahead to be considered as well.

Wednesday, October 26, 2011

Stocks close out nice day...

As more news surfaced about possible solution to the EURO Debt crisis, stocks started climbing.  Nice moves in Banks, Oils, and commodity stocks led the way.

Dow +162
Nas +12
S&P +12 to 1242

I'll get back to regular posting tomorrow.. Sorry but I have to work some times, you know.

S&P warns of another US Debt Downgrade...

S&P chairman John Chambers reportedly warns that the U.S. would be harmed if the congressional super committee doesn't come to a satisfactory solution on reducing the U.S. deficit, without specifically mentioning a ratings action. Bank of America earlier forecast a U.S. credit downgrade in the absence of a credible deficit reduction plan.

Panera blows out earnings...

Panera (PNRA) rockets up 14.4% after nailing a Q3 earnings triple play and grabbing lofty price target increases from Oppenheimer and Piper Jaffray to $150 and $156, respectively. CEO Bill Moreton says in a CC that the firm's MyPanera rewards program has been a runaway success with 8M registered users. "This is a tremendously powerful tool for us that we're just scratching the surface with."

PNRA is currently up 18 to 133.70 (a new all-time high)

Amazon losing money trying to keep up with Apple...

Amazon.com (AMZN) released its earnings last night, and the results suggest that the company is spending a lot of money developing and marketing its new Kindle Fire tablet. Amazon is looking to compete with Apple ‘s iPad.

The company reported net income of $63 million, or $0.14 per share. A year ago, the company earned $231 million, or $0.51 per share. This quarters earnings missed analysts’ expectations of $0.24 per share.

Amazon forecast that its operating results in the next quarter would range from a loss of $200 million to a profit of $250 million.

AMZN is currently down 29.40 to 197.74

Market takes off in the afternoon...

Stocks are rising this afternoon as details from the European summit to resolve the debt crisis began to emerge. 

The euro zone aims to leverage its 440 billion euro bailout fund, the European Financial Stability Facility, or EFSF, "several fold," but finance ministers will only agree the details of how that will be done in November, according to a draft statement obtained by Reuters to be issued after the summit on Wednesday.

"The market has begun to discount any meaningful announcement coming from today's meeting -- that should be helpful for the markets as the bar is set pretty low," said Joseph Tanious, market strategist at J.P. Morgan Funds in New York.

"That said, the devil is always in the details. Are we going to get some clarity around the bank recapitalization? Are we going to get some clarity around leveraging the EFSF and some clarity around Greece? We need to see the degree of which details are going to be released in the statement."

Stocks open higher...

Been out at a meeting...

Stocks are mixed at lunchtime as traders try to digest the news coming out of Europe.  Basically, Germany has made a proposal that has been well received as a temporary fix.  Our markets initially popped higher, and have since settled back down.

Dow +21
Nas -20
S&P -2

Gold is continuing to move higher.  It looks like that trade is working no matter what happens in Europe. 

Tuesday, October 25, 2011

No comeback today...

Stocks continued to drift lower as the day wore on, basically giving back the gains from the last two sessions.

Dow -207
Nas -61
S&P -25 to 1229

Amazon.com misses earnings and is down another 33 points after the bell.  The market is getting dangerous again.  It certainly has not be worth holding stocks for their earnings reports.

As far as Netflix goes, it closed down over 41 points to 77 and change.  OK, I get it, the stock was overpriced, but now I think it is looking underpriced and should probably be bought. I doubt Netflix is going away any time soon.

With 30 minutes left....

Stocks are down big ahead of the EU Meeting tomorrow.  Gold and Silver are back in the Fear trade, as is a flight to quality into Treasuries.

Dow -151
Nas -49
S&P -18 to 1235

Multiple Blowups today:

Netflix -42.01 to 76.84
Green Mountain Coffee -8.78 to 64.95
First Solar -14.55 to 43.40
Interactive Intelligence -8.00 to 25.79

Earnings due tomorrow before the bell...

Lockheed Martin (LMT)
Northrup Grumman (NOC)
Sprint (S)
Ford (F)
Boeing (BA)
Allergan (AGN)
Wellpoint (WLP)
Brinker International (EAT)
JetBlue (JBLU)
Corning (GLW)
Medco Health (MHS)

Earnings due out after the bell...

Amazon.com (AMZN)
Panera Bread (PNRA)
Robert Half (RHI)
Broadcom (BRCM)
Express Scripts (ESRX)
FFive Networks (FFIV)
Trustmark (TRMK)

First Solar CEO steps down...

 First Solar (FSLR -10.4%) is getting hit after announcing that CEO Rob Gillette is stepping down. The company names Chairman and founder Michael Ahearn to serve as interim CEO effective immediately.

FSLR is down 11.18 to 46.75

We had pointed out the negative chart back at 66

At 1:15 pm....

Stocks are lower, as more and more concerns surface about the Eurozone and the Summit meeting tomorrow. 

Dow -92
Nas -30
S&P -12

Movers:

Under Armour (UA) +5.56 to 81.89
Gold ETF (GLD) +4.37 to 165.40
Wellcare (WCG) +1.61 to 47.43
CF Industries (CF) +2.38 to 161.52
British Petroleum (BP) +2.08 to 43.95

Netflix (NFLX) -41.00 to 77.90
Interactive Intelligence (ININ) -7.28 to 26.50

More on the Gold spike...

Gold spikes higher over the past 90 minutes, threatening to push past $1,700/oz. for the first time since it plummeted under that level in September. There's no particular news other than the continuing idea that Western governments have little choice but to continue bailing, which has to be good for the metal. Dec. Gold is at $1,694.

Gold and Silver spike higher...

This has been a curious trade to me.  Gold and Silver have been holding up after the drop that was experienced in late September.  Below are the Daily Charts for GLD and SLV the two ETFs.  You can see that both are breaking higher today ahead of tomorrow's EU Summit.  Looks like a break above 165 on GLD and above 32 on SLV would be breakout levels.


Stocks open under pressure...

Stocks are lower after news that German PM Merkle rejects initial agreement proposal for tomorrow's EU Summit.  Also confusion that another UK Finance Minister's meeting has been cancelled, even though the two meetings are not really connected.  Either way, looks like the market is very skiddish ahead of the Summit meeting.

Dow -129
Nas -30
S&P -15

Stocks that are bucking the trend:

Under Armour +3.82 to 80.06
BP +1.67 to 43.48
ARM Holding +0.85 to 28.56

Netflix is down 42.76 to 76.18

Today's Upgrades and Downgrades...

These are some of this Monday’s top analyst upgrades, downgrades, and initiations seen from Wall Street research calls this morning.


AT&T Inc. (NYSE: T) Cut to Market Perform at Bernstein.

The Bank of New York-Mellon (NYSE: BK) maintained Underperform as Bear of the Day at Zacks.

Brightpoint, Inc. (NASDAQ: CELL) Raised to Outperform as Bull of the Day at Zacks.

Family Dollar Stores, Inc. (NYSE: FDO) named Growth & Income stock of the day at Zacks.

Forest Laboratories Inc. (NYSE: FRX) Cut to Hold at Argus.

Healthways Inc. (NASDAQ: HWAY) downgraded at William Blair, Barclays, and Piper Jaffray.

JA Solar Holdings Co., Ltd. (NASDAQ: JASO) Raised to Overweight at Piper Jaffray.

Level 3 Communications Inc. (NASDAQ: LVLT) Raised to Neutral at Citigroup.

Lowe’s Companies Inc. (NYSE: LOW) Raised to Buy at Janney.

Netflix, Inc. (NASDAQ: NFLX) downgraded by Reed Hastings and everyone left who was still positive.

Royal Gold, Inc. (NASDAQ: RGLD) Raised to Overweight at HSBC.

Veeco Instruments Inc. (NASDAQ: VECO) Cut to Neutral at Sterne Agee; Reiterated Sell ar Canaccord Genuity.

Under Armour reports strong earnings...

Shares of Under Armour (UA) slip 3.2% premarket despite beating analyst estimates for Q3 EPS, $0.88 vs. $0.83. The sporting apparal retailer also steered its revenue guidance higher to $1.46B-$1.47B, from $1.42B-$1.44B, but investors may be taking profits off of yesterday's 4.4% gain.


Here is the weekly chart:

Simon Property Group beats and raises...

Simon Property Group Inc. (SPG). The owner of malls and outlet centers reported better-than-expected quarterly earnings and raised its profit forecast for the year. It said third-quarter funds from operations totaled $606.2 million, or $1.71 per share, up from $503.6 million, or $1.43 per share, a year earlier. The company increased its full-year FFO forecast to a range of $6.80 to $6.85 per share from a previously raised range of $6.65 to $6.73.

SPG broke out yesterday ahead of this earnings report:

Coach still selling their high end handbags...

Coach Inc. (COH). The company reported a higher-than-expected first-quarter profit as sales of its upscale handbags, wallets and accessories rose in North America despite the rocky economy and continued to grow in China. It reported earnings of 73 cents a share on net income of $215 million.

ARM Holdings beats expectations...

ARM Holdings (ARMH). The company reported strong licensing of its chip designs in the third quarter, helping it beat market expectations and offset current weak demand in consumer electronic markets ahead of the holiday season. It reported a 44 percent rise in pretax profit to 55.8 million pounds on revenue up 20 percent to 120.2 million pounds. The company reported earnings of 3.05 pence per share.


ARMH's technology is a major component of the iPad.

Netflix gets pounded...

Netflix Inc. (NFLX). The video rental company lost more customers than it anticipated in the third quarter and warned of still more defections to come. It reported a better-than-expected 49 percent surge in third-quarter revenue to $822 million, surpassing Wall Street's target of about $812 million. It also beat expectations on earnings per share. Netflix also forecast a loss for the first quarter of 2012 as it expands into Europe.

Netflix is currently down 41 points to 77 premarket. OUCH!!!

Good Morning...

The Dow and the Nasdaq are coming off their best closes since August 1, the S&P 500 since August 3, but the immediate outlook for the U.S. stock market clearly rests on negotiations taking place in Europe. Futures have been moving between gains and losses on the uncertainty over exactly what kind of deal on European debt will be forthcoming on Wednesday.

A busy day of corporate earnings is also ahead, with Dow components DuPont (DD) reporting earnings per share of $0.69 ex-items versus expectations of $0.56.

This morning's earnings list also includes 3M (MMM), Cummins (CMI), Coach (COH), Sherwin-Williams (SHW), UPS (UPS), U.S. Steel (X), and Xerox (XRX), among others. Amazon.com (AMZN) leads today's after-the-bell earnings roster, with Panera Bread (PNRA), Express Scripts (ESRX), and Broadcom (BRCM) also set to report.

Netflix (NFLX) leads this morning's list of stocks to watch, plunging in after-hours trading on weak subscriber numbers and soft fourth quarter guidance.

Amgen (AMGN) may get some positive action after beating estimates with its third quarter numbers, while Texas Instruments (TXN) also beat estimates, but issued a cautious fourth quarter outlook.

BP (BP) shares are up about 4% overseas, after chief executive Bob Dudley said the company has turned a corner following the Gulf oil spill, and that the dividend could be lifted this year.