Thursday, February 14, 2008

Back to the Northwest / Delta Deal....

Sources say Air France-KLM will take a stake on unknown size in a combined Delta Air Lines (DAL) and Northwest (NWA) in exchange for a board seat. Delta and Northwest have agreed on major terms, including keeping Delta's name and headquarters, sources say.

Comcast Beats....

Comcast (CMCSA), #1 U.S. cable operator, said Q4 profits jumped 54%. EPS of $0.20 on revenue of $8.01B beat consensus estimates of $0.17 on revenue of $7.9B.

Comcast said it will repurchase another $6.9B in shares by end of 2009; initiated an annual dividend of $0.25; and said 2008 free cash flow should grow at least 20%.

This stock has fallen from a high of $29 in July 07 to yesterday's close of $17.81. It is up to $19.04 premarket.

Paulson Says US Will Avoid Recession...

Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson will tell Congress the U.S. economy is sound, despite expectations of significant housing market softness. The economy will continue to grow, albeit at a slower pace. Current initiatives may help mitigate the situation, "and we remain open to other good ideas as we move forward," he will say, according to prepared notes.

Yahoo offering stake to News Corp., others....

Days after its board rejected a $44.6 billion takeover offer from Microsoft, Yahoo is talking about selling a stake to News Corp. The position that could be more than 20% would allow Yahoo to stay independent while giving News Corp. substantial control over a range of Internet properties and advertising opportunities, according to the Wall Street Journal, which is owned by News Corp.

Yahoo is also talking with Google Inc. and Time Warner Inc.'s AOL.

Wednesday, February 13, 2008

Daily Summary....

U.S. Markets

Dow +178.83 (+1.45%)
Nasdaq +53.89 (+2.32%)
S&P 500 +18.35 (+1.36%)

News That Moved the Market

Retail Sales Shines. A better than expected retail sales figure fueled another rally Wednesday, the third gain in as many days for the Dow. The Commerce Department announced retail sales jumped by 0.3%, well ahead of the 0.3% decline expected. Auto and gasoline sales were the main catalysts for the number beating expectations. Though auto companies reported earlier in February that monthly sales declined from last month, the report showed motor vehicle sales increased by 0.6% by dollar value. On the news, markets traded higher, as investors seemed convinced that they can rely on the American consumer, even in such trying circumstances.

NY State Attorney General Targets Health Insurers. New York Attorney General Andrew Cuomo announced plans to sue UnitedHealth Group (UNH, -2.7%), the U.S.'s largest health insurer, and subpoena 16 other insurers to investigate illegitimate reimbursement practices. Cuomo said UnitedHealth limited payments to customers by claiming their medical charges were too high.

News Corp and Yahoo in Talks. In a new wrinkle to the story, Yahoo (YHOO, +1.0%) is now in talks with News Corp. (NWS, -0.5%) about a potential strategic alliance to fend off Microsoft's (MSFT, +2.2%) bid. Rupert Murdoch's media giant is exploring merging some of its online properties, including MySpace, with Yahoo in exchanging for a stake possibly greater than 20%. Details of the potential deal are still unclear, but it is hard to see News Corp. going through with a deal, especially because it is already struggling to integrate the Wall Street Journal.

Bush Signs Stimulus Plan. President Bush signed into law the $168 billion stimulus plan aimed to help the U.S. economy avoid a recession. Expect to receive rebates some time in May.

Tomorrow Notable Earnings

Comcast Corporation (CMCSA) Before Open
UBS (UBS) Before Open

Economic Events:

8:30 AM: Jobless Claims
8:30 AM: Trade Balance

Palm Pumps Centro; Analysts Wary...

Palm (PALM) CEO Ed Colligan said in an interview Wednesday sales of Centro, Palm's entry-level smart phone, have exceeded expectations. He said he believes Palm finally has the product it needs to penetrate the consumer market and conquer Europe, while downplaying the effects economic softness could have on consumer sales. Some analysts are skeptical the long-awaited device can spark a turnaround at the troubled company.

T-Mobile Dumps Google for Yahoo...

T-Mobile parent Deutsche Telecom (DT) said Tuesday it will drop Google (GOOG) in favor of Yahoo (YHOO) as search engine for its websites, making Yahoo the primary search engine for about 80 million European subscribers.

Convenient news for Yahoo...considering the Microsoft bid going on right now...

Boom in Display Screens Eases Applied Materials' Slump

Applied Materials (AMAT) reported a 35% drop in fiscal Q1 earnings, but orders were up 13% from Q4, well ahead of the company's forecast 5-15% decline. Shares gained 4.76% after hours.

The company is also shifting their attention to the Solar market. Applied's solar operations represents only a sliver of the company's total revenue, but it's growing at a rapid rate, especially in comparison to the company's sluggish core business of making chip equipment.
Applied Materials has aggressively moved into the solar market, seeking to become the industry's biggest equipment supplier.


That's two hot markets: Solar and Display Screens....

RIMM Explains Outage....

Research In Motion (RIMM). The Canadian wireless communication solutions company said late Tuesday an early investigation of Monday's Blackberry service disruption indicated a problem with an internal data routing system within the Blackberry service infrastructure that had been recently upgraded. The upgrade was part of RIM's efforts to increase overall capacity, the company said.

Sounds like our company's email "upgrade" that we had in January that shut down our email for a week.

First Solar Blows Away Estimates...

First Solar Inc. (FSLR). The Phoenix-based solar electric power module maker said fourth-quarter net income rose to $62.9 million, or $0.77 a share, beating the mean estimate of analysts polled by Thomson Financial of $0.53 a share. A year ago, the company posted net income of $8 million, or $0.11 a share, in the quarter. Revenue rose to $200.8 million from $52.7 million.

FSLR is up 25 points to $200 in premarket trading. This is a hot, but dangerous group. Long term, probably a good place to put money.

Blue Nile Falls on 1Q Outlook....

Shares of Blue Nile Inc. (NILE) fell 19% to $43.61 after the online jewelry retailer forecast first-quarter results that missed analysts' expectations. The Seattle company said it expects first-quarter earnings between 11 cents and 14 cents a share and sales to be "relatively flat" with first-quarter results. Analysts expect, on average, earnings of 23 cents a share on revenue of $82 million.

The company also said its fourth-quarter net income rose 31% to $7.5 million, or 45 cents a share, from $5.8 million, or 35 cents a share, a year earlier. Revenue increased 23% to $111.9 million. Analysts expected, on average, earnings of 44 cents a share on revenue of $113 million.

In addition, the board authorized an additional $100 million to repurchase shares of its common stock over the next two years. The company also named President Diane Irvine to the additional role of chief executive. She succeeds Mark Vadon, who was named executive chairman.

I could swear Blue Nile's CEO was just on CNBC two weeks ago saying how great business was......anyway....this is a retailer, right...retailers are supposed to have flat to lower earnings in the quarter following the Xmas Quarter...what are these analysts thinking??? This is probably an overreaction and a buying opportunity.

Venezuela Suspends Exxon Oil Shipments

Venezuela says it will suspend oil shipments to Exxon Mobil in an escalating dispute that pits the world's biggest oil company against a country with one of the planet's biggest reserves of oil and a major supplier to the U.S.

Oil has spiked over the last few days from the high 80's to $93.11 this morning as a result of this situation.

ERTS Pledges 50% Higher Revenues in 3 Years...

Electronic Arts Inc. (ERTS), seeking to bolster investor enthusiasm after several years of lackluster financial performance, said it plans to exceed $6 billion in annual revenue in three years, or more than 50% higher than expected revenue for its current fiscal year.
Such an increase would restore solid growth at EA, maker of well-known videogame franchises such as Madden NFL football and the Sims. In recent years, EA has shown little in profits and revenue growth as it struggled with high development costs, poor reviews and weak sales for some games.

Investors reacted positively to the news, sending EA's shares up $2.50, or 5.4%, to $48.85 in trading on the Nasdaq Stock Market.

At an event for Wall Street analysts at its Silicon Valley campus in Redwood City Tuesday, a new management team at EA -- including John Riccitiello, who joined EA as chief executive last April -- for the first time collectively presented its plans for the coming years. In their presentations, Riccitiello and other executives announced plans to contain costs for games by sending more development overseas, improve the quality of its titles and to make new games that are easier to play for consumers who aren't avid gamers.

"Our company has not delivered in the last three years in any way acceptable for shareholders," Riccitiello said.


This guy sounds like a politician, with these promises. He must think they have some hot games in the pipeline.

Ambac Turns Down Buffett Reinsurance Offer

Says it welcomes any "constructive offers to deal with the current uncertain environment." But deal offered by Buffett's Berkshire Hathaway "would result in little to no net capital relief to support Ambac's ratings."


Buffett is wanting to purchase the Municipal Bond Insurance Portion of Ambac's portfolio...Problem is that Municipal Bonds are highly unlikely to default. That is the most reliable part of the business.

Legg Mason urges Microsoft to enhance offer for Yahoo

Legg Mason, Yahoo's second largest shareholder, said it wants Microsoft to increase its offer. Prominent Legg Mason fund manager Bill Miller said "Microsoft will need to enhance its offer if it wants to complete a deal." But he also said it "will be hard for Yahoo to come up with alternatives that deliver more value than Microsoft will be willing to pay."

Yahoo's stock is up from $19 to $29 since the deal was announced. Yahoo better not get too greedy or they may find their stock right back down near $20 again.

Tuesday, February 12, 2008

Daily Summary....

U.S. Markets

Dow +133.40 (+1.09%)
Nasdaq -0.02 (-0.00%)
S&P 500 +9.73 (+0.73%)

News That Moved the Market

Buffet Causes Rally. The markets were positive for most of the day off news that Warren Buffet offered through Berkshire Hathaway (BRK.A, -0.2%) to assume $800 billion in municipal bond liabilities from MBIA (MBI, -15.3%), Ambac (ABK, -15.1%), and FGIC Corp. The offer should dissolve fears of a large municipal bond sell off, but Buffet said he would not touch the companies' troubled structured-finance business. Berkshire said it would take on the liabilities for the specific bonds in exchange for 1.5 times the premium the companies had received. This was not a bail out and still leaves the bond insurers at risk to lose their AAA ratings. Despite this, the markets reacted extremely positively to the news, trading higher, but on light volume. A late day sell off erased gains for the Nasdaq, but other major indices finished with well into the green.
GM Reports Largest Annual Decline. GM (GM, -1.9%) reported a loss of $38.7 for last year, and still seems far away from reaching real sustainable profitability. However, it announced it would be offering buyouts to 74,000 United Auto Workers members to lower costs.

Paulson Announces Foreclosure Freeze. Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson and a group banks responsible for half the U.S. mortgage market announced plans to offer 30 day foreclosure freezes. The plan is to help and encourage troubled homeowners to contact their mortgage banks to modify their loans. So far, only 16% of homeowners who were sent a letter explaining they were at risk of foreclosure have contacted a lender.

After Hours. Applied Materials (AMAT, -2.0% day; +4.8% A.H) reported higher profits than anticipated by analysts.

Tomorrow Notable Earnings

Coca-Cola (KO) Before Open
Waste Management (WMI) Before Open
Baidu (BIDU) After Close

Economic Events:

8:30 AM: Retail Sales
10:00 AM: Business Inventories
10:30 AM: Crude Inventories

Wynn Beats but Stock Falls...

Shares of Wynn Resorts Inc. (WYNN) fell 4.8% to $114.06 despite the casino operator reporting fourth-quarter results that beat Wall Street's view.

The Las Vegas company swung to a fourth-quarter profit of $65.5 million, or 57 cents a share, from a year-earlier loss of $55.4 million, or 55 cents a share. Revenue rose to $711.3 million from $563.6 million. Excluding items, earnings were 72 cents a share.

Analysts expected, on average, earnings of 68 cents a share on revenue of $692 million.

The stock has made a nice move from $95 to $120 since January 22 bottom.

Buffalo Wild Wings Up; 4Q EPS Beats Street View...

Shares of Buffalo Wild Wings Inc. (BWLD) rose 11% to $26.05 in after-hours trading Tuesday after the restaurant chain operator reported fourth-quarter earnings that beat analysts' estimates.

The Minneapolis company said its fourth-quarter net income fell to $6.01 million, or 34 cents a share, from $6.8 million, or 38 cents a share, a year earlier. The company said its revenue increased 9.7% to $91.4 million from $83.3 million.

Analysts polled by Thomson Financial had expected, on average, earnings of 31 cents a share on revenue of $92 million.

Buffalo Wild Wings also said it expects company-owned, same-store sales increase of 4.1% for the first quarter and franchise, same-store sales growth of 1.3%, and believes a 25% net income growth target is in reach.


Makes me hungry. Anyone know where one of these are around here???

Stocks Finish Mixed...

US stocks finished mixed despite rising most of the day after a survey of top economists by the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia said the U.S. will escape a recession. Another bit of good news was Warren Buffett's offer to aid the municipal bond businesses of three troubled bond insurers.

The Dow rose 133.40 points to 12373.41 after having risen as much as 229 points, the S&P 500 rose 9.73 points to 1348.86, and the Nasdaq Composite fell 0.02 points to 2320.04.

Economists Don't See Recession...

The U.S. is likely to escape a recession, a Philadelphia Fed survey of top economists finds, with the GDP rising by 0.7% in the 1Q and by 1.3% in the 2Q. On an annual average over annual average basis, GDP is seen rising by 1.8% in 2008.

A recession would have declining GDP.

Very Strange Tape....

Dow +103
S&P +5
Nasdaq -6

Dow stocks are holding their gains, but we have had a massive selloff (and reversal) this afternoon in the highest flying Tech stocks....

Makes no sense....

Looks to me like some hedge fund is liquidating itself....

Market Strong this Morning....

Dow +204
S&P +19
Nasdaq +24


NYSE Market Beadth Statistics (as of Noon)

Advances 2,438 (74%)
Declines 792 (24%)
Unchanged 67 (2%)

Up Volume 1,165 (85%)
Down Volume 202 (15%)

Unch. Volume 4 (0%)

New Hi's 46
New Lo's 69


The key stat to pay attention to is the Up Volume to Down Volume Ratio. A reading of 9-1 (90%) is historically very positive for the market. Two such readings within a 60 day period typically marks a turnaround in the market's direction.

US Mortgage Crisis Spreads To Prime Borrowers

At the end of September, nearly 4% of prime mortgages were past due or in foreclosure, according to the Mortgage Bankers Association, The Times reported. That was the highest rate since the group started tracking prime and subprime mortgages separately in 1998.

The delinquency and foreclosure rate for all mortgages, 7.3%, is higher than at any time since the group started tracking that data in 1979, largely as a result of the surge in subprime lending during the last few years. The default rate for prime mortgages is still far lower than for subprime loans, about 24% of which are delinquent or in foreclosure.

Monsanto Boosts View on Roundup, Corn Sales...

Monsanto (MON), the Agribusiness giant boosts its fiscal 2008 per-share earnings estimate by 20¢ a share to $2.70 to $2.80 a share. Wall Street expects $2.81. Hike comes on a "revival" in its Round-Up business and strong early-season corn orders.

This looks like a hot sector with Potash (POT), Monsanto and Mosaic (MOS) as the leaders.

Monsanto stock is up 2.65 to $116.70 in premarket trading.

GM Reports Earnings...

Shares of General Motors Corp. (GM) slipped 2.7% to $26.40 before the opening bell Tuesday even as the auto maker posted better-than-expected fourth-quarter results and cut a deal with the United Auto Workers union on a buyout for hourly workers.

GM's shares rose 5.1% Monday amid rising expectations ahead of the earnings report.

GM said it swung to a fourth-quarter loss $722 million or $1.28 a share, as the weak U.S. auto market and the slowing economy challenge the auto maker's turnaround, despite growth in emerging markets.

However, earnings excluding charges came in at $46 million, or 8 cents a share, ahead of the average forecast from analysts polled by Thomson Financial for a loss of 54 cents a share. GM's fourth-quarter results also reflect a $1.6 billion tax benefit.

Buffet Offers to Reinsure Muni Bonds....

Billionaire investor, Warren Buffett, talking on CNBC, offered to provide reinsurance on up to $800 billion in municipal bonds to Ambac, MBIA and FGIC. Deal would only cover insurers' safest investments and not trouble complicated financial instruments.

I'm sure we'll be hearing more about this today.....

Potash Corp Upgraded To Buy From Hold By Citigroup

Citigroup raises their price target on the fertilizer maker to $178 from their previous target of $147.

The company's CEO appeared on Fast Money last night and was very positive about the future of the fertilizer business.

The stock is up 3 points to $147 premarket.

Schering-Plough Beats Estimates...

Schering-Plough beats by $0.03, beats on revs (SGP) 20.62 : Reports Q4 (Dec) earnings of $0.27 per share, excluding non-recurring items, $0.03 better than the First Call consensus of $0.24; revenues rose 40.5% year/year to $3.72 bln vs the $3.1 bln consensus.

Earnings Due Today....

COMPANIES REPORTING EARNINGS

• Applied Materials (AMAT). Expected to post Q1 profit of $0.20 a share, according to analysts polled by Thomson Financial. This is a decrease of 28.21% from $0.28 earned per share same time last year.

• Bob Evans Farms (BOBE). Expected to post Q3 profit of $0.54 per share, up 9.8% from $0.49 earned per share same time last year.

• Cephalon Inc. (CEPH). Expected to report Q4 profit of $0.78 a share, a decrease of 26.79% from $1.06 earned per share same time last year.

• Ecolab Inc. (ECL). Expected to post Q4 profit of $0.40 a share, up 16.76% from $0.34 earned per share same time last year.

• Molson Coors Brewing Co. (TAP). Expected to report Q4 earnings of $0.65 a share.

• Omnicom Group (OMC). Expected to post Q4 profit of $0.95 a share, a rise of 17.28% from $0.81 earned per share same time last year.

• Teradata (TDC). Expected to report Q4 earnings of $0.39 a share.

• Wyndham Worldwide (WYN). Expected to post Q4 profit of $0.46 a share, up 3.41% from $0.44 earned per share same time last year.

• Wynn Resorts Ltd. (WYNN). Expected to report Q4 profit of $0.68 a share, up 28.49% from $0.53 earned per share same time last year.

• XTO Energy Inc. (XTO). Expected to post Q4 profit of $0.92 a share, which is largely unchanged from the profits reported same time last year.

Oil Price Jumps Again on Chavez Threats...

The price of crude oil rose a day after Venezuelan President Hugo Chavez issued a new threat to cut oil exports to America. U.S. crude rose by $2.24 to $94.01, while London Brent rose $1.60 to $93.54.

AIG Loss Disclosure May Put CEO's Job in Jeopardy...

American International Group recently disclosed that its losses may be much larger than the $1.6 billion it previously estimated. That disclosure may cost Martin Sullivan, AIG's chief executive, his position. For now, a company representative says Sullivan is not leaving, but declined to comment on whether he would follow in the path of other high-profile CEOs at Citigroup and Merrill Lynch.

Microsoft Responds to Yahoo Rejection....

MSFT issued the following statement in response to Yahoo!'s rejection of Microsoft's offered acquisition:

"Based on conversations with stakeholders of both companies, we are confident that moving forward promptly to consummate a transaction is in the best interests of all parties. We are offering shareholders superior value and the opportunity to participate in the upside of the combined company... Furthermore, the combination will create a more competitive marketplace by establishing a compelling number two competitor for Internet search and online advertising. The Yahoo! response does not change our belief in the strategic and financial merits of our proposal. As we have said previously, Microsoft reserves the right to pursue all necessary steps to ensure that Yahoo!'s shareholders are provided with the opportunity to realize the value inherent in our proposal."

Monday, February 11, 2008

Daily Summary....

U.S. Markets

Dow +57.88 (+0.48%)
Nasdaq +15.21 (+0.66%)
S&P 500 +7.84 (+0.59%)

News That Moved the Market

Markets Up Despite Downward Pressure From AIG. Major indices fell at the open on news that American International Group (AIG, -11.7%) was being questioned by its auditor on how the insurer prices some of its derivatives, mainly CDOs. Fitch Ratings announced it may cut AIG's AA rating as a result of the disclosure. Despite the negative news, every sector besides financials and healthcare, which lost only 0.1%, ended higher. However, volume in general was light, making many believe that the sellers simply took the day off, rather than buyers came into Monday with great conviction.

BofA and Chevron Join The Dow Industrials. The Dow Industrial Average will add Bank of America (BAC, -0.1%) and Chevron (CVX, +1.5%) and drop Altria (MO, -0.9%) and Honeywell (HON, -0.3%). The new companies were inserted to reflect the increased importance of financials and oil industrials in the world economy. The additions will not get the same bounce as companies added to the S&P 500 because there are simply more portfolios and funds structured around the S&P 500 compared to the Dow.

Oil Finishes Higher On Supply Concerns. Crude jumped 2.1% on news a refinery in Delaware had to be shutdown because of weather conditions. In addition, Venezuelan president Hugo Chavez threatened to stop selling oil to the U.S. after the Venezuelan assets were ordered frozen by a judge following a legal altercation with Exxon Mobil (XOM, +1.9%). Experts however, do not believe Chavez will carry out his threat.

Motorola and Nortel Planning Joint Venture. Motorola (MOT, +2.8% is reportedly in talks with Nortel Networks (NT, -1.6%) to merge the companies' wireless infrastructure business according to the Wall Street Journal. The move could create a company with sales north of $10 billion/year.

Tomorrow Notable Earnings:

Credit Suisse (CS) Before Open
General Motors (GM) Before Open
Wynn Resorts (WYN) After Close

Salesforce.com Puts Itself Up for Sale....

Salesforce.com jumps on buyout rumor. Sources say Salesforce.com (CRM) approached Oracle (ORCL) with a potential offer to sell itself for $75/share -- close to a 50% premium over CRM's Friday close of $50.87. Shares are up sharply.

Another iPhone Price Drop Coming...

Sources say Apple (AAPL) will again drop prices on the iPhone and iPod Touch within the next two months -- by as much as $100.

Cree Inc. (CREE) Breaking higher....

CREE up 1.60 to $33.82

Cree Inc. is climbing back to the mid 30's, a level that has proven hard to break thru for the stock no less than 5 times in the past.

Keep a close eye on this as it looks like the stock is building momentum as it moves higher.

Noon Update....

Dow - 11
S&P + 2
Nasdaq +5


The market is holding up well in here following the negative news from AIG this morning. AIG is still down $5.75, but the Dow Average is about to turn positive.

The Dow fell to 12,069 this morning. The bottom made on January 22 was just above 12,000 (on the close). A retest would tend to reverse itself right around the 12,100 level....exactly where we turned around this morning. So....we're hoping that the retest may be over. Only time will tell. If we by chance slip below and close below 12,000...that would be very negative. If we hold above that 12,000 level, then maybe we can start to move forward. My guess is that we have bottomed.

AIG Pulls Down the Dow....

American International Group Inc., the world's largest insurer by assets, fell as much as 6.1 percent after auditors found a ``material weakness'' in how the company values its credit-default swap portfolio.

AIG hasn't yet determined the decline in value that will be included in its 2007 financial statements, the New York-based insurer said in a regulatory filing today.

AIG stock is down 5.05 to $45.60 (a 5-year low).

Bush to Sign Stimulus Package on Wednesday...

President George W. Bush says he will sign a $152 billion economic stimulus package on Wednesday. After a brief spat over the cost, Congress agreed Thursday to a measure that would provide investment incentives and one-time tax rebates.

New Phones for Sony Ericsson...

Sony Ericsson (SNE) (ERIC) unveiled numerous new phones, including a phone based on Microsoft (MSFT) software, and the G900, with a 5-megapixel camera and a 2.4" touchscreen that rivals Apple's (AAPL) iPhone. Sony Ericsson said an upgraded version of its PlayNow internet and mobile phone service will be available in 30 countries within the year. The service rivals Apple's iTunes and Nokia's Ovi. CEO Hideki Komiyama says Sony Ericsson is looking to bolster its weak presence in the U.S., but called a purchase of Motorola's (MOT) handset unit unattractive.

Oil Spikes on Chavez Threats....

Chavez threatens oil supply disruption over Exxon case. Venezuelan President Hugo Chavez expanded his threats to cut off oil shipments to the United States, saying he would close the tap if oil companies succeed with lawsuits challenging his nationalizations.

Oil ran up $4.50 on Friday to $91.78, causing the US market to sell off in the afternoon.

The Latest on Delta / Northwest Deal...

Delta Air Lines Inc. (DAL), Northwest Airlines Corp. (NWA). The Atlanta, Georgia-based air carrier and the Eagan, Minnesota-based airline are trying to build a common labour contract for the 11,000 pilots at both airlines before they complete a merger deal, The Wall Street Journal reported Saturday, citing people familiar with the matter.

The negotiations, considered essential for smooth integration of those key labour groups, centre on organizing a fair way of forming a unified, seniority-based roster, the paper added.

Earnings Due Today....

COMPANIES REPORTING EARNINGS

• Carlisle Cos. (CSL). Expected to post Q4 profit of $0.53 a share, down 3.96% from $0.56 per share earned same quarter last year.

• CNA Financial Corp. (CNA). Expected to report Q4 profit of $1.03 a share, up 13.19% from $0.91 earned same time last year.

• General Growth Properties Inc. (GGP). Expected to post a loss of $0.17 per share in the fourth quarter.

• Lincare Holdings (LNCR). Expected to post Q4 profit of $0.67 a share, up 14.2% from $0.59 earned same time last year.

• Valspar (VAL). Estimated to post profit of $0.23 a share in the first quarter.

Changes to the Dow Industrials....

Dow Jones will make changes to the Industrial Average for the first time since 2004.

They have decided to add:

Chevron Texaco - which was taken out of the average in 1999...now back in...probably at the top of Oil prices...

Bank of America - adding a financial, probably at an opportune time.

In exchange, they are taking out:

Honeywell - the smallest of the Dow companies...

Altria (Philip Morris) - probably about time for this one to be taken out.

Yahoo Rejects Microsoft's Offer....

Yahoo! Inc. (YHOO) plans to reject Microsoft Corp.'s (MSFT) unsolicited $44.6 billion offer for it. The Wall Street Journal reports that Yahoo's board determined that the $31 per share offer "massively undervalues" Yahoo, according to a person familiar with the situation. It also doesn't account for the risks Yahoo would be taking by entering into an agreement that might be overturned by regulators, the Journal said.

What happens to Yahoo's share price in the coming days could help determine Microsoft's response. The stock traded at 4 p.m. Friday at $29.20, up 16 cents from previous day, on Nasdaq. If the stock stays at that level or goes up, that could be a signal that investors believe Yahoo is worth more than Microsoft's current bid. If the shares decline following news of the offer's rejection, that could lessen the pressure on Microsoft to increase its offer.

Yahoo playing games here...reports were that YHOO thinks their company is worth $41 a share....Maybe in your dreams, Yahoo..

Barron's: 3 Tech Stocks With Serious Potential...

Barron's says the January 2008 tech downturn is in no way similar to the crash of the dot-com bubble. Demand for network bandwidth continues to grow, and despite potential corporate penny pinching, few companies can afford to cut back on their internet strategies.

Tech Trader Eric Savitz outlines the bullish case on three tech stocks:

Cisco (CSCO) -- CEO John Chambers once again spooked investors by noting orders were down sharply in January, and warning FQ3 revenue will come up short. Shares fell 7% in extended trading, but were up $0.30 by day's-end. Cisco is sticking to its long-term estimates of 12-17% growth. Down 33% from its highs, shares are a solid long-term investment at 15x 2008 earnings. The company also holds $22B in cash and investments.

Akamai (AKAM) -- a content-delivery network [CDN] leader, demand for CDNs continues to boom as internet TV becomes a reality, no doubt a factor in AKAM's recent blowout quarter. CEO Paul Sagan doubts an economic downturn would much affect the company. With estimated 40% growth and trading at 20x 2008 earnings, shares look cheap.

JDS-Uniphase (JDSU) -- signs the company's turnaround is finally taking hold include: 1) Hitting GAAP profitability for the first time without needing asset sales. 2) Four quarters in a row of EPS and cash-flow growth. 3) The most recent quarter was perhaps the first time JDSU has seen simultaneous improvement in both gross margin and revenue across all its businesses. At 20x 2008 earnings, shares aren't cheap, but it's "an interesting speculative play on bandwidth growth."

Friday, February 8, 2008

McDonald's January Sales Increase...

McDonald's Corp. (MCD) reported January global same-store sales rose 5.7%, as U.S. sales rebounded from December weakness and growth overseas was boosted by the beaten-down dollar.

MCD is up 1.80 to $56.26 this morning....

I could swear they just said last week that traffic was down...so which is it??? In fact the market sold off hard in reaction to that news.

Morgan Stanley Does Not Like Sears...

A continuing decline in sales and tight profit margins might hurt Sears' (SHLD) turnaround plans. "Until I can see why cash is low, I see no reason to own the stock," Morgan Stanley's Gregory Melich says.

Have you been to a K-Mart or Sears store lately??? No one there.

Dell Dumps AMD...

Dell (DELL) has stopped selling AMD-powered (AMD) machines through its online store, including the Latitude D531, Vostro 1000 or OptiPlex 740.

This is good news for Intel (INTC).

Smartphones....

Research in Motion (RIMM) and Apple (AAPL) may be the primary beneficiaries of a massive consumer shift from basic cellphones to smart phones.

Go check out a cell phone store and ask them what the trend is...

Another Take on Ethanol....

Ethanol may boost global warming. Researchers say widespread ethanol use could double any greenhouse gas emissions produced by the gasoline it replaces. Farmers growing biofuel plants destroy forests and grass, raising the amount of carbon in the atmosphere. Ethanol producers' Renewable Fuels Association called the research "simplistic."

Verizon Announces Stock Buyback..

Verizon (VZ) yesterday announced that its board has authorized the repurchase of up to 100 million shares. The authorization expires Feb. 28, 2011. Sounds like a lot of stock - 100 million shares! - but it would be just 3.4% of the company’s 2.9 billion shares outstanding, or about 1% of the float per year over the authorized period.

Verizon's stock has fallen from the mid 40's to $36.95 over the past three weeks. Their dividend currently pays 4.655%. Not bad for a quality name.

Dismal January for Retail, But Stocks Rally...

Retailers posted their worst monthly sales in five years; even gift-card redemptions were soft. Wal-Mart (WMT) lead the way with 0.5% comps growth vs. 2% estimates; more than half of all retailers missed expectations.

Despite the bad news, Retail stocks had a great day. That is a key group to keep an eye on over the next few months. Retailers will typically be one of the first groups to show a recovery in the economy as it pertains to the average citizens.

Stimulus Bill Wins Vote...

Congress approved a $168B economic stimulus bill, meaning more than 130 million households will begin receiving $600-1,200 rebate checks. The measure passed after Democrats dropped demands for billions in extra spending and tax breaks.

President Bush called the legislation "an example of bipartisan cooperation at a time when the American people most expect it."

Amazon Ups Stock Repurchase Plan..

Amazon.com, Inc. (AMZN) announced today that its Board of Directors has authorized the Company to repurchase up to $1 billion of the Company's common stock within the next 24 months.

The program allows the Company to opportunistically repurchase its shares when it believes that doing so would enhance long-term shareholder value. This stock repurchase authorization replaces an April 2007 $500 million stock repurchase authorization.

The stock is climbing 2.50 pts to $73.58 in the premarket.

Earnings Due Today....

• American Electric Power (AEP). Expected to report Q1 earnings of $0.73 cents a share.

• Apartment Investment and Management (AIV). Expected to post Q4 loss of $0.27 per share.

• Beckman Coulter (BEC). Expected to report Q4 earnings of $1.03 a share.

• Weyerhaeuser Co. (WY). Expected to report Q4 earnings of $0.35 a share.

Hitachi to Introduce Super Thin TV's in 2010...

Hitachi Ltd. (HIT). The Japanese electronics giant said today it will introduce a 10-millimeter (mm) thin plasma display panel TV in 2010 in a bid to boost the competitiveness of its flat TV business operations. The thickness is less than a third of the 35mm-thin PDP TVs the manufacturer plans to launch next year. Capitalizing on these new "super-thin" models, Hitachi is targeting to raise its share of the world's PDP TV market to 10% in the fiscal year to March 2011, from an estimated 6 percent in the year to March 2009, it said.

Hitachi will also introduce a 15mm-thin liquid crystal display (LCD) panel TV by 2012, slimmer than the 19-mm model it plans to launch next year. It will also launch a 3mm-thin organic light-emitting diode (OLED) display TV by 2012, the company said.

Options Going Crazy in CTSH...

Cognizant Technology Solutions Corp. (CTSH). The Teaneck, N.J.-based IT services provider late Thursday said fourth-quarter net income rose to $96.3 million, or 32 cents a share, from $69.5 million, or 23 cents a share, in the same period last year. On an adjusted basis, earnings were 36 cents a share, beating the mean estimate of analysts polled by Thomson Financial for 31 cents a share.

Fourth-quarter revenue increased 41% to $600 million from $424.4 million in last year's comparable period. The company provided guidance for first-quarter adjusted earnings of 36 cents a share and sales of at least $640 million.

The stock is up 3.50 to $31 premarket.

Guitar Hero Propels Earnings for Activision..

After yesterday's closing bell, Activision Inc. (ATVI). late Thursday reported third-quarter adjusted earnings rose to $284.9 million, or 90 cents a share, from $147.5 million, or 48 cents a share, in the same period last year. Revenue for the period ended Dec. 31 jumped 80% to $1.48 billion from $824.3 million in last year's comparable period.

For fiscal 2008, the Santa Monica, Calif.-based interactive entertainment software products company expects adjusted earnings of $1.07 a share on sales of $2.65 billion. For the fourth quarter, the company expects adjusted earnings of 4 cents a share on sales of $350 million.

Activision is the maker of the popular Guitar Hero video game. Obviously a big hit for Xmas.

Thursday, February 7, 2008

Daily Summary....

U.S. Markets

Dow +46.90 (+0.38%)
Nasdaq +14.28 (+0.63%)
S&P 500 +10.46 (+0.79%)

News That Moved the Market:

Stocks Finish Higher Despite Lousy Retail Sales. Markets were able to end the day with gains for the first time this week, but volatility was still prevalent in today's trading. Selling pressure was strong early in the session when chain stores released January's sales results. With a few exceptions, the results were grim. In all, sales grew 0.5% from last year, with notable weakness in luxury and department store sales. Wal-Mart (WMT, +2.1%) reported a 0.5% increase in sales, well below the 2.0% jump analysts had anticipated. Target (TGT, +6.1%) saw a 1.1% decrease in same-store sales, while Nordstrom (JWN, +3.7%) said sales fell 6.6% at stores open more than a year. Despite the negativity, traders bought retailers perhaps sensing a bottom or figuring that earnings will not be affected by the poor start to the year.

Senate Passes Stimulus Plan. The U.S. Senate passed a $151 billion economic stimulus plan similar to the one the House passed last week. The bill will likely now get to the President very quickly to sign.

Pending Home Sales Decline. Homebuilders finished higher, despite lower than expected pending home sales data. The National Association of Realtors announced December pending home sales fell 1.5%, more than the 1.0% decrease expected, but an improvement over November's figures.

Pepsi Jumps On 2008 Outlook. Pepsi (PEP, +5.5%) traded higher after the company put out a solid forecast for the year in the face of higher commodity prices and economic weakness. The company reported a 31% decrease in profits due to a large tax benefit from last year. Pepsi sees earnings increasing about 10% in 2008.

Tomorrow Notable Earnings:

Weyerhaeuser(WY) Before Open

Economic Events:

10:00 AM: Wholesale Inventories

Circuit City to Open Smaller Stores...

Circuit City's turnaround plans. Circuit City (CC) will open 50-60 smaller stores in 2008 called "City" with high-level staff that will mimic Apple Stores; says it doesn't think selling itself is in its best interest; and more than doubled its credit line to $1.3B.

Apple Cuts Component Orders....

A researcher says Apple (AAPL) has reduced supplier orders for its iPhones, iPods and MacBooks for the second time in two months, amid weak Q4 sell-through.

Suppliers Broadcom (BRCM) and Marvell (MRVL) could feel the effects.

Midday Update....

Dow + 12
S&P +5
Nasdaq +5

After selling off on the open the market has strengthened. There is a noticeable change in Market Breadth this Morning.

On the NYSE:

Advancing Issues 1733
Declining Issues 1283

Advancing Volume 444 Million shares
Declining Volume 305 Million shares

Today is setting up an important inflection point. We are severely oversold and need to hold up here. How we close is critical.

Yahoo Steps Up Talks With Google...

Sources say Yahoo's (YHOO) talks with Google (GOOG) have intensified as the company looks at alternatives to Microsoft's (MSFT) $44.6B offer.

Breakdown Alert: Chipotle (CMG)

Chipotle (CMG) down 4.87 to $103.73

Chipotle has clearly broken down thru support it had at $110. Pull up a daily chart and you'll see what I mean. Next support levels: $98 and then $88.

I just ate there yesterday...same long line as always...so I would say this is purely market-related tied to recession fears..

Notable Mover: Emcore Corp.

Emcore (EMKR) up 1.47 to $13.50

Emcore is an interesting looking stock. The stock has been steadily climbing since June of last year. Though volatility has certainly picked up, this looks like it may be a solid new name to keep an eye on....which we will do.

Emcore Corporation's (EMKR) principal activity is a leading provider of compound semiconductor-based components and subsystems for the broadband, fiber optic, satellite and terrestrial solar power markets.

Farm / Fertilizer Stocks Getting Crushed this Morning...

Monsanto (MON) down 6.34 to $100.00

Potash (POT) down 6.51 to $132.40

Terra Nitrogen (TNH) down 9.82 to $126.03

Terra Industries (TRA) down 3.33 to $39.35

Mosaic (MOS) down 3.87 to $89.65


Each of these stocks are guiding higher for earnings this year...very volatile...but could be nice trade once the market bottoms.

JC Penney Stock Jumps on Q4 Outlook...

J.C. Penney Co.'s (JCP) January comparable-store sales, or sales of stores open at least a year, fell 1.9%, compared with a year earlier increase of 3.6%. The Plano, Texas, retailer said January total department store sales rose 1.7%, while direct sales increased 3.6%.

J.C. Penney projects February comparable-store sales to be flat, with comparable-department store sales decreasing in the low single digits on a percentage basis. J.C. Penney will include Internet sales in its comparable-store sales results starting in the 2008 fiscal year ending Jan. 31. The company now projects fiscal fourth-quarter earnings at the high end of its original guidance range of $1.65 to $1.80.

The stock is up 3.28 to $47.00 this morning. It is down from a high of $87 hit last February.

Energy Conversion Devices Sees Profit by Q4...

Energy Conversion Devices Inc.'s (ENER) second-quarter loss widened to $5.43 million, or 14 cents a share, from $2.91 million, or 7 cents, a year earlier. Results for the latest period included restructuring charges and preproduction costs totaling 12 cents a share.

The Rochester Hills, Mich., manufacturer of solar thin-film laminate products said revenue for the quarter ended Dec. 31 rose to $56.4 million from $22.9 million a year earlier. Analysts polled by Thomson Financial, on average, projected a loss of 13 cents a share on revenue of $53 million.

The company confirmed its expectation that it will reach sustainable profitability in the fiscal fourth quarter.

The stock is up 1.20 to $25.11 this morning.

Thornburg continues breakout...

TMA up .60 to $13.35

Thornburg Mortgage (TMA) continues to move higher this morning. This stock held up very well in the $9-$10 area, now it is receiving upgrades from several analysts. The stock is clearly breaking out off a four month base.

Ex-CEO Says He May Buy Children's Place...

Children's Place Retail Stores Inc (PLCE) former Chief Executive Ezra Dabah said on Thursday he was confident he could make a bid to buy the company for $24 a share, sending its shares up 18 percent in pre-market trading.

The $24 price would represent a 35 percent premium to the closing price of Children's Place shares on Wednesday. Dabah said he had received interest from private equity firm Golden Gate Capital to be a participant in the deal.

Dabah, who said in a filing to the Securities and Exchange Commission that he owns 17.2 percent of the children's clothing retailer's shares, resigned as CEO last September after an internal probe found he did not comply with the company's securities-trading policies.

Something smells with this potential deal.....This stock has been in a free fall lately....this guy owns alot of stock....could he be just looking to prop the stock up so he can get out??? I'd short on the news.

Akamai Beats Estimates...

Akamai Technologies Inc. (AKAM). The Cambridge, Mass.-based service provider for accelerating content and applications online late Wednesday reported fourth-quarter net income of $35.9 million, or 20 cents a share, compared with $20.6 million, or 12 cents a share, in the same period a year earlier. Normalized net income for the fourth quarter was $75.9 million, or 41 cents a share. Revenue for the period ended Dec. 31 jumped 46% to $183.2 million from last year's $125.7 million.

AKAM is up 1.00 to $30.75 premarket.

Earnings Due Today....

• Activision Inc. (ATVI). Expected to post Q3 earnings of $0.80 a share, according to analysts polled by Thomson Financial.

• Aon Corp. (AOC). Expected to report Q4 earnings of $0.66 a share.

• Apache Corp. (APA). Expected to report Q4 earnings of $2.52 a share.

• AutoNation Inc. (AN). Expected to report Q4 earnings of $0.32 a share.

• Embarq Corp. (EQ). Expected to report Q4 earnings of $1.11 a share.

• Expedia Inc. (EXPE). Expected to post Q4 earnings of $0.31 a share.

• Genworth Financial Inc. (GNW). Expected to report Q4 earnings of $0.69 a share

• International Paper Co. (IP). Expected to report Q4 earnings of $0.65 a share.

• Level 3 Communications (LVLT). Expected to report Q4 loss of $0.11 a share.

• McAfee Inc. (MFE). Expected to report Q4 earnings of $0.45 a share.

• Moody's Corp. (MCO). Expected to post Q4 earnings of $0.47 a share.

• Pitney Bowes Inc. (PBI). Expected to post Q4 earnings of $0.69 a share.

• Timberland Co. (TBL). Expected to post Q4 earnings of $0.51 a share.

• Watson Wyatt Worldwide (WW). Expected to post Q2 earnings of $0.70 a share.

Citigroup says Coal Prices to Keep Rising...

Coal will continue to rise in price as bad weather and other factors cut production, a Citigroup analyst says. The bank raised its forecast for thermal coal, saying prices will double this year. While demand for coal keeps rising as the world's electricity use expands, blizzards in China, power outages in South Africa, and floods in Queensland have cut world output.

Ways to play Coal:

Arch Coal (ACI)

Consolidated Energy (CNX)

Burlington Northern (BNI) - transports coal

Bank of America informs cardholders of mystery rate hike...

Bank of America has taken an aggressive stance toward its credit-card holders, raising interest rates based on criteria it won't disclose. Many credit-card lenders have raised rates on cardholders who are current with balances but see a deterioration in their overall credit scores. Bank of America last month notified some of its 40 million cardholders that it would more than double their rates.

Buffett blames investment banks for subprime mess...

Warren Buffett says the giant investment banks are responsible for the subprime mortgage meltdown and ensuing losses. "It's sort of a little poetic justice, in that the people that brewed this toxic Kool-Aid found themselves drinking a lot of it in the end," the billionaire investor said, adding that money is still available and reduced interest rates make it "quite cheap."

US Senate Vote Leaves Stimulus Plan Fate Unclear...

The fate of an economic stimulus plan in the Senate was unclear last night after Democrats fell one senator short of forcing Republicans to allow a vote on a $205 billion version of the plan.

I'm sure we'll hear more on this today...

Delta / Northwest Talks Intensify...

As we said yesterday, merger discussions between Delta Air Lines\ and Northwest Airlines are picking up steam and a deal could come in next two weeks. And talks between UAL and Continental have grown more serious, The Wall Street Journal says.

Cisco Warns on 3rd Quarter...

Cisco Shares May Fall On Weak 3Q Growth Estimate
Cisco Systems reports net income of $2.1 billion, or 33¢ a share. On a non-GAAP basis, Cisco earns 38¢ a share. Revenue grows nearly 17% to $9.8 billion. Results are in line with Wall Street expectations, but CEO says it expects weaker revenue growth going forward.

This will put downward pressure on the Market this morning....

Wednesday, February 6, 2008

Daily Summary....

U.S. Markets:

Dow -65.03 (-0.53%)
Nasdaq -30.82 (-1.33%)
S&P 500 -10.19 (-0.76%)

News That Moved the Market:

Markets Finish Down, Continue Drop After Close. Markets succumbed to selling pressures after a positive morning. The biggest news however was Cisco's (CSCO) outlook, which failed to impress Wall Street. The company said it saw weakness in January that may continue over the "next few months." CEO Officer John Chambers forecasted sales growth of 10% in the next fiscal quarter, well below average analyst projection of 15%. Though the company's results, which were released Wednesday after the bell, were basically in-line, investors were more focused on the company's outlook. Shares of Cisco were hammered along with major indices after hours. Unless a timely positive catalyst occurs between now and the opening bell tomorrow, expect to open tomorrow with significant losses.

Macy's Drops On Outlook. Macy's (M) cut its forecast for the current quarter after a weak January and will let go of 2,300 employees. The company's same-store sales for January fell 7.9%.

Rio Tinto Rejects BHP's Bid. Rio Tinto (RTP) declined BHP Billiton's (BHP) $147 billion all-stock bid. Rio said the bid undervalues the company and did not open the door for further negotiations.

MBIA To Raise $750 Million By Issuing Shares. MBIA (MBI) jumped in after-hours trading after it announced it would raise $750 million in an effort to sure up funds to keep its AAA rating. Fitch Ratings however said that the additional funds still may not be enough to save the bond insurer.

Tomorrow Notable Earnings:

Pepsi (PEP) Before Open

Economic Events:

Chain Store Sales
7:00 AM: Bank of England Announcement
7:45 AM: European Central Bank Announcement
8:30 AM: Jobless Claims
10:00 AM: Pending Home Sales

Bulletin: Update on Northwest/Delta Deal...

The Wall Street Journal is just reporting that a deal could be complete as soon as next week.

Look for more consolidation talk and speculation in airlines....Jetblue, Continental, US Air.

Rally Fizzles Out as Stocks Roll Over....

After being up all day, the market has just turned negative again.

Not necessarily a huge wave of selling, it looks more like buyers are staying on the sidelines, allowing bears to regain control.

Cisco has earnings after the bell this evening. A disappointment would virtually assure that we are headed back down for a retest of the bottom made on January 22.

Jetblue Gives Reason for Move...

Jetblue Airways reports its traffic in January increased 7.2% (JBLU) $6.73 +0.41 :

Co announces its traffic in January increased 7.2% from January 2007, on a capacity increase of 8.0%. Load factor for January 2008 was 75.6%, a decrease of 0.5 points from January 2007. JetBlue's preliminary completion factor was 98.7% and its on-time performance was 76.7%. JetBlue's preliminary passenger revenue per available seat mile for the month of January increased ten percent year over year.

Technical Alert: Zimmer Holdings.....

ZMH up .78 to $77.70

Check out the Daily chart on Zimmer Holdings (ZMH). The stock gapped up last week after they guided higher on 2008 earnings. It has formed a classic Bullish high-tight flag pattern. A break above $79.50 would be a significant move for the stock.

Jetblue Climbing Again...

JBLU up .40 to $6.72

After running up last week from $5 to $7.00, the stock fell back a bit. Today it is resuming it's run. A break thru $7 would be very positive with $9-$10 as the next level of resitance.

Technical Breakout: Thornburg Mortgage...

TMA up 1.04 to $12.95

Thornburg Mortgage (TMA) is breaking out from a four month base today on higher volume. The stock was trying to break higher yesterday, but the broad market held it back. This morning it broke easily through resistance at $12. Next level of resitance is $13.50. After that, nothing until the low 20's.

Mastercard Down on Rumors....

MA down 3.50 to $203.30

MasterCard (MA) is down this morning on rumors the ECB and EU will implement major cross-border charges which would crush profit margins.

The stock hit $198 earlier.

VMware Clawing its Way Back Up...

VMW up 2.23 to $61.55

The stock is climbing off a bottom set on January 29, when the stock gapped down from $82 to $55 after posting a slight disappointment in earnings.

What's Going on With Northwest and Delta???

While there has been no confirmation of a potential merger between Delta (DAL) and Northwest Airlines (NWA), the two put on a show which suggests they are exploring a closer relationship.

After both stocks gapped higher on January 10, both are trying to break off their latest base today.

DAL up 1.02 to $18.05

NWA up .61 to $18.39

Sony Leapfrogs LCD TV Market...

Sony (SNE) jumped from fourth to first place in U.S. LCD TV sales in Q4, largely due to its pushing big screens, and high-value, high-margin products.

Sony's stock hit a 52-week low this morning....Fundamentally it looks strong.

Biogen's Net Income Nearly Doubles....

BIIB up 1.37 to $61.89

Biogen Idec Inc.'s (BIIB) fourth-quarter net income nearly doubled as sales of multiple sclerosis drugs Avonex and Tysabri continued to grow sharply. The Massachusetts biotech company reported net income of $201.2 million, or 67 cents a share, from $108.6 million, or 32 cents a share, a year earlier. Excluding items, including acquisition-related costs and a prior-year license settlement, earnings rose to 89 cents a share from 53 cents.

Revenue jumped 26% to $893.3 million. The mean per-share earnings estimate of analysts polled by Thomson Financial was 80 cents on revenue of $836 million.

Sales of Biogen's bestseller, multiple sclerosis drug Avonex, grew 15% to $502.5 million. The company's portion of sales from its other multiple sclerosis drug, Tysabri, rose fivefold to $89.6 million out of $129 million in global sales. The balance goes to Biogen's partner on the drug, Elan Corp. (ELN). Arthritis drug Rituxan's sales grew 17% to $254 million. Biogen co-promotes with Genentech Inc. (DNA), and gets a share of pretax profits.

Looking forward, Biogen backed its previous estimate of per-share earnings, excluding items of $3.20 to $3.35 on revenue up 15% to 20%. Analysts expect 2008 per-share earnings of $3.30 on revenue up 15% to $3.59 billion. The company has said it expects to double its profit by 2010.

JDSU Blows Away Estimates....

JDS Uniphase Corp.'s (JDSU) fiscal second-quarter fell to $21.2 million, or 9 cents a share, from $23.2 million, or 10 cents a share, a year earlier. Excluding items, per-share earnings were 22 cents. The technology networking equipment maker's revenue rose to $399.2 million from $366.3 million a year earlier.

Analysts had predicted earnings of 12 cents a share and revenue of $386.4 million. Analyst estimates typically exclude items.

The stock is up 3.00 to $13.15 this morning....

Consumer Courage Collapses....

U.S. consumer confidence fell to a 14-year low according to the ABC News/Washington Post Consumer Comfort Index. 59% of Americans think the economy is already in a recession. The index fell 13 points over the last month, similar to its reaction prior to the 1990-91 and 2001 recessions.

Housing Woes Take Toll on Toll Bros....

Toll Bros. (TOL) warned Q1 revenue fell 22% to $843M. TOL expects Q1 writedowns of $150-300M. Backlog fell 42% to $2.4B. Gross contracts signed fell 46%.

CEO Robert Toll said he has yet to see the proverbial light at the end of the tunnel.

Google Bringing Free Music to China...

Google (GOOG), together with a Chinese parter, is about to reveal a market-changing service that will offer free, licensed music downloads in China. The move is a direct challenge to Baidu's (BIDU) music search domination, which has helped it keep Google at bay.

Analysts say 90% of China's 162 million internet surfers use pirated music from their computers at least once a day.

Now we know why Google ticked higher all day yesterday.

BHP Billiton Raises Bid for Rio Tinto...

Mining giant BHP Billiton (BHP) late Tuesday upped its bid for rival Rio Tinto (RTP) to $147 billion. The move came a few days after Aluminum Corp. of China and Alcoa Inc. (AA) bought a big block of Rio shares.

Disney Beats Estimates....

Walt Disney Co. (DIS). The Burbank, CA-based entertainment company reported Tuesday fiscal first-quarter net income of $1.25 billion, or 66 cents a share, down from $1.7 billion, or 83 cents a share in the year-earlier period.

Excluding non-recurring items, adjusted earnings were 63 cents a share, compared with the mean estimate of analysts surveyed by Thomson Financial of 52 cents a share. Revenue for the quarter ending Dec. 31 rose 9% to $10.45 billion from last year's $9.58 billion.

Disney is up 1.80 to $31.80 premarket...helping give the Dow a lift this morning.

Earnings Due Today....

COMPANIES REPORTING EARNINGS

• Alcon Inc. (ACL). Expected to report Q4 earnings of $1.28 a share, according to analysts polled by Thomson Financial.

• Biogen Idec Inc. (BIIB). Expected to report Q4 earnings of $0.80 a share.

• Cisco Systems Inc. (CSCO). Expected to post Q2 earnings of $0.38 a share.

• Electronic Data Systems (EDS). Expected to post Q4 earnings of $0.57 a share.

• Fiserv Inc. (FISV). Expected to post Q4 earnings of $0.71 a share.

• IAC Interactivecorp (IACI). Expected to post Q4 earnings of $0.55 a share.

• Kimco Realty Corp. (KIM). Expected to post Q4 earnings of $0.26 a share.

• McClatchy (MNI). Expected to post Q4 earnings of $0.48 a share.

• MetLife Inc. (MET). Expected to post Q4 earnings of $1.43 a share.

• Polo Ralph Lauren Corp. (RL). Expected to report Q3 earnings of $0.77 a share.

• Prudential Financial Inc. (PRU). Expected to report Q4 earnings of $1.88 a share.

• Sara Lee Corp. (SLE). Expected to report Q2 earnings of $0.24 a share.


Cisco's the main one today....due after the close this evening.

Wellcare Gets Hawaii Contract...

Wellcare Health Plans Inc. (WCG) said its 'Ohana Health Plans Inc. unit was awarded a contract to participate in the Hawaii QUEST Expanded Access program, according to a filing with the Securities and Exchange Commission. The program provides Medicaid managed care services to Hawaii's Medicaid aged, blind and disabled members who are currently receiving services through the fee-for-service system.

Under the contract, 'Ohana will arrange for the provision of members' primary, acute and long term care services. The contract is effective Feb. 1 until June 30, 2011. 'Ohana is expected to begin providing services to members on Nov. 1. Shares of the Tampa-based managed-care services provider closed Tuesday at $47.71.

S&P Warns of Bank Downgrades.....

S&P warns of bank downgrades if bond insurers slip: Commercial and investment banks could see their credit ratings cut if the bond insurers backing some of the banks' assets are downgraded, Standards & Poor's said. One analyst estimated that U.S. financial institutions could face as much as $70 billion in new writedowns if bond insurers lose their "AAA" ratings.