Monday, February 4, 2008

Google will try to thwart MSFT/YHOO deal...

Google mobilized over the weekend to thwart Microsoft's $44.6 billion hostile bid for Yahoo. A Google statement said the deal would threaten competition and needed examination by policymakers around the world. Google CEO Eric E. Schmidt reportedly called Yahoo chief Jerry Yang to offer help in fending off Microsoft, possibly in the form of a partnership between the companies.

Google's lobbyists in Washington began shaping arguments against the transaction, hoping to prolong a regulatory review at least until after the next president takes office.

This, of course, is positibve news for Yahoo, as it means Google may ultimately get in a bidding war with Microsoft. Yahoo is just responding that it is "exploring its options."

Saturday, February 2, 2008

Daily Deep Thought....

"Winning isn't everything, but wanting to win is."

-Vince Lombardi

Wow...I guess I had that quote wrong all these years...I've been telling my kids:

Winning isn't everything...it's the only thing.

Friday, February 1, 2008

Daily Summary....

U.S. Markets

Dow +92.83 (+0.73%)
Nasdaq +23.50 (+0.98%)
S&P 500 +16.87 (+1.22%)

News That Moved the Market

Microsoft's Bid For Yahoo Spurs Rally. The markets found a direction after a volatile morning digesting a plethora of news. Most of the attention went to Microsoft's (MSFT) unsolicited $44.6 billion bid for Yahoo (YHOO). Microsoft's $31/share bid represented a 62% premium over Yahoo's closing price on Thursday. The combination of the two companies may provide stiff competition to Google (GOOG) who owns 56% of the Internet search market. Shares of Microsoft fell hard with investors questioning the steep premium and how the two companies will merge cultures, technologies, and strategies.

Jobs Reports Disappoints; ISM Manufacturing Jumps. Investors also had two major economic reports to deal with Friday, with both the monthly jobs report and the ISM Manufacturing Index being released. The jobs report was an absolute disappointment, showing a decrease in non-farm payrolls for the first time in four and a half years. The report proved the Fed's actions over the past two weeks were well justified and even more action will probably be needed to dodge a recession. ISM Manufacturing came in at 50.7, well ahead of estimates and representing expansion. The contradicting reports had a somewhat canceling out effect that allowed investors to concentrate on Microsoft's (MSFT) bid.

Merrill Sued For Fraud. Merrill Lynch (MER) was charged by Massachusetts regulators with fraud after selling CDOs to the city of Springfield, Massachusetts. The CDOs lost 91% of their value and the city said it did not authorize the purchase of the CDOs, adding the investment was unsuitable for the city's risk tolerance. Merrill was a little puzzled by the suit, which came a day after the bank said it would reimburse Springfield $13.9 million for their losses.

Monday Notable Earnings:

Wendy's (WEN) Before Open
Yum Brands (YUM)After Close

Economic Events:


10:00 AM: Factory Orders

Today's Upgrades and Downgrades....

Lowe's: Citigroup downgrades Buy to Hold. Citigroup downgraded LOW to Hold from Buy, as they believe both LOW and HD 4Q07 SSS are likely tracking below guidance, as continued housing market weakness and a faltering consumer are taking its toll. The firm notes that since 2008 EPS visibility is very limited, and they anticipate HD and LOW guidance to be cautious in February, and as such, they expect additional pressure on these stocks. Firm cuts their ests for both HD and LOW.

Motorola: Citigroup upgrades Hold to Buy. Citigroup upgraded MOT to Buy from Hold as the co is finally exploring a structural and strategic realignment of its businesses. The firm believes that this will serve as a meaningful catalyst to Motorola shares as investors will look past the drag from the underperforming handset business. Firm says their sum of the parts analysis indicates a value of $16 - $17, with fairly conservative assumptions.

Avid Tech: Kaufman Bros downgrades Hold to Sell . Target $28 to $15. Kaufman Bros. downgrades AVID to Sell from Hold and lowers their tgt to $15 from $28, following Q407 revenue results that exceeded firm estimates with EPS slightly lower and based on management's view of 2008 as a transition year.

Garmin: Needham & Co upgrades Hold to Buy. Target $85. Needham upgrades GRMN to Buy from Hold with an $85 noting GRMN shares are down almost 30% ytd and 45% from their peak late last year. While some new concerns, such as threat of a macro slowdown and maturing of the European market have recently been added to the traditional ones, the firm believes these concerns are likely more than baked into the current share price and must be balanced against the very robust nearterm performance of Garmin's business. Firm also says while they are impressed by the new Nuviphone and expect it will minimally be a modest success, they don't view it as critical to the shares working from here.

RF Micro Device: Needham & Co downgrades Strong Buy to Buy. Needham downgrades RFMD to Buy from Strong Buy with a $6 tgt following earnings and saying they are bullish on RFMD for the following reasons: 1) Healthy handset unit growth, 2) more than doubling of GaAs content per handset with the migration to 3G, 3) Pricing of GaAs components to stabilize as industry enters capacity constraint conditions, 4) Continued Ramp up of Polaris transceivers through C08 based on current design activity; 5) Several strategies to increase margins.

Medarex: Banc of America Sec upgrades Sell to Neutral. BofA upgraded MEDX to Neutral from Sell based on valuation. At current prices, the firm believes expectations for MDX-010, its lead compound for melanoma, are low for a timely approval and that downside is limited. Longer term, they continue to believe that MDX-010 is a drug with activity in a relatively small percentage of patients and that it will ultimately gain approval. They estimate ~$300 mln in peak sales for MDX-010 in 2012.

Bristol-Myers: Cowen & Co upgrades Neutral to Outperform. Cowen upgraded BMY to Outperform from Neutral following earnings. The firm says standout Q4 EPS growth were driven by better-than-expected revenues. Current product dynamics, a good pipeline, upcoming news events, and attractive yield make a standout investment case.

Computer Associates Moves Higher....

CA up 3.27 to $25.27

Software maker CA Inc. (CA) said fiscal third-quarter net income tripled, aided by cost-cutting and a lower restructuring charge compared with a year earlier. The maker of business and data-management software formerly called Computer Associates also raised its full-year 2008 forecast.

Excluding items, the company reported earnings of 36 cents a share from continuing operations, compared with 24 cents a year earlier. Revenue rose 9.8% to $1.1 billion from $1 billion.

Analysts polled by Thomson Financial had expected the Islandia, N.Y., company to post earnings, excluding items, of 25 cents a share on revenue of $1.05 billion.

Dolby Labs (DLB): Stock of the Day....

DLB up 4.50 to $47.42

Dolby Labs (DLB) first-quarter net income rose to $47.7 million, or 42 cents a share, from $29.9 million, or 27 cents a share, a year earlier. Revenue increased to $150.2 million from $104.4 million the year before. On average, analysts had expected first-quarter earnings of 32 cents a share and revenue of $134.4 million. Dolby raised its 2008 forecasts, now projecting earnings of $1.34 to $1.44 a share and revenue of $575 million to $615 million. The company had predicted annual net income of $1.27 to $1.37 a share and revenue of $560 million to $600 million.

That is the company's 11th straight quarter or earnings and revenue growth!!!

The company's principal activities are to develop and deliver innovative products and technologies that make the entertainment experience more realistic and immersive in theatres, homes and cars. The Group operates in single segments, licenses its technologies to manufacturers of DVD players, DVD recorders, audio/video receivers, television sets, set-top boxes, video game consoles, personal audio and video players, personal computers, in-car entertainment systems and other consumer electronics. The Products and Production Services segment designs, manufactures and sells audio products for the motion picture, broadcast, music and video game industries to improve sound quality, provide surround sound and increase the efficiency of sound storage and distribution.

Arch Coal Beats Estimates...

Arch Coal beats by $0.09, reports revs in-line; guides FY08 EPS in-line (ACI) 43.95 : Reports Q4 (Dec) earnings of $0.56 per share, $0.09 better than the First Call consensus of $0.47; revenues rose 4.2% year/year to $644.4 mln vs the $641.1 mln consensus.

Co issues in-line guidance for FY08, sees EPS of $2.00-2.50 vs. $2.43 consensus.

The stock is trading up 2.25 to a new 52-week high $46.20

Don't Be Fooled By Yesterday's Rally....

Remember, yesterday was the last day of the worst January in Stock Market History. Fund Managers wanted to close out the month as high as they could to minimize the "shock" on their clients' faces when they get their January statements.

It's called "Window Dressing" and that's what happened.

Today's higher open was due to the Microsoft bid for Yahoo. M&A is back.

We've settled back down to even on the day....and traders still want to go back down and retest the bottom from last Tuesday. Be careful.

Movers on the open...

Google (GOOG) -40 to $524

Crocs (CROX) +1.81 to $36.60

Chipotle (CMG) +2.92 to $123.30

Gamestop (GME) +.75 to $52.33

Potash +3 to $144

Wynn Resorts (WYNN) + 4.25 to $119.25

Celgene (CELG) + 2.64 to $58.75

Intuitive Surgical (ISRG) + 55 to $309.00

Chevron Earnings....

Chevron beats by $0.06 (CVX) $83.25 : Reports Q4 (Dec) earnings of $2.32 per share, $0.06 better than the First Call consensus of $2.26; revenues rose 28.6% year/year to $61.41 bln.

CEO says "Fourth quarter earnings for our upstream business benefited from a significant increase in the price of crude oil. However, downstream profits were off sharply because of planned and unplanned refinery downtime in the United States, as well as the impact of higher crude-oil costs that were not fully recovered in the sales price of refined products.

Interesting Looking Company...

Intuitive Surgical Inc. (ISRG) expects its revenue to climb 40% this year from $600.8 million in 2007 as more hospitals buy and ramp up usage of the company's expensive robotic surgical system, the company said Thursday. Shares of Intuitive, which soared last year but have recently been more than $100 below the 52-week high, recently traded at $291.55 in after-hours trading. That's up considerably from Thursday's close at $254 following an 8.1% climb during the regular trading session.

Intuitive reported net income that more than doubled to $49.2 million in the recent quarter, helped by the sale of 78 da Vinci systems, up from 50 sales a year earlier. Twenty machines were sold to existing customers and 26 were sold outside the U.S. The company is forecasting system revenues, tied to shipments of da Vinci units, to rise about 30% in 2008.

System sales are important, but so is the growth in procedures because Intuitive collects usage-related revenue tied to the sale of accessories, system service and training. "System utilization has steadily increased and currently averages about three procedures per system per week across the installed base," Gong said. The worldwide installed base of da Vinci machines reached 795 at the end of the fourth quarter. The system today has grown on the back of prostate removal surgery, and hysterectomies represent a fast growth area. According to Gong, the company sees prostatectomy procedures growing by about 40% this year and hysterectomy procedures growing by about 150%.

The fourth quarter tends to be the strongest quarter for system sales, Gong noted. Intuitive sees first-quarter revenue down from the fourth quarter, but then growing sequentially in subsequent quarters. The average selling price per da Vinci machine reached a high of $1.38 million in the fourth quarter, helped by sales of a newer model and sales outside the U.S. that benefited from the weak dollar.

The average selling price on the year was about $1.33 million, which Intuitive expects will also be the average price in 2008. Intuitive sees gross margins in 2008 between 69% and 70%.

Cummins Misses on Earnings...

Cummins misses by $0.05, beats on revs; guides FY08 revs in-line (CMI) 48.35 : Reports Q4 (Dec) earnings of $1.00 per share, $0.05 worse than the First Call consensus of $1.05; revenues rose 15.4% year/year to $3.5 bln vs the $3.46 bln consensus.

Sales are forecast to increase 12% from 2007 levels (which calculates to roughly $14.61 mln vs. $14.63 bln consensus), and the co expects to generate EBIT of 10% of sales in 2008.

The stock is down $3 premarket to $45.

Google Wakes Up with a Hangover....

Talk about getting kicked when you're down....

Google stock is down 40 points pre market due to falling short on earnings and revenue expectations.....now the Mcrosoft / Yahoo Buyout.....

By the way...Yahoo shareholders and Board have to OK this deal. Google may.....and I say may....hop in here and raise the bid.....I doubt it though.

Jetbue Partners with Irish Airline....

Low-fare,high-frills carrier JetBlue Airways Corporation (Nasdaq:JBLU) and Aer Lingus, Ireland's low-fares counterpart, today officially announced their industry-first strategic partnership will come into effect on April 3, 2008.

The innovative partnership will enable Irish and U.S. customers to book a single low fare reservation between Ireland and more than 40 continental U.S.destinations, connecting through JetBlue's home base at New York's John F.Kennedy International Airport (JFK).

Exxon Mobil Reports Earnings...

Exxon Mobil Corp.'s (XOM) fourth-quarter net income rose 14% to $11.66 billion, or $2.13 a share, from $10.25 billion, or $1.76 a share, a year earlier, boosted in part by higher upstream earnings.

A Thomson Financial survey of analysts, on average, predicted earnings of $1.95 a share for the quarter. Analysts' estimates usually exclude items. The Irving, Texas, oil and gas company said revenue grew to $116.64 billion from $90.03 billion.

Microsoft to Buy Yahoo...

Microsoft Corp. (MSFT) offers to buy Yahoo Inc. (YHOO) for $44.6 billion, a move designed to create a more credible competitor to industry leader Google Inc. (GOOG) and deepen Microsoft's position in the market for online business software.

The hostile approach, outlined by Microsoft Chief Executive Steve Ballmer in a letter sent Thursday night to Yahoo's board and published Friday, is aimed at pressing Yahoo to agree to a combination it rejected a year ago.

The offer, for $31 a share in cash and stock, represents a 62% premium to Yahoo's closing price Thursday. It comes offer comes as Yahoo continues to struggle against Google in the race for online-advertising revenue and Internet-search market share despite efforts to upgrade its systems. Yahoo's shares have lost about 40% of their value over the past three months.


I think we called this one on Monday....

Thursday, January 31, 2008

Daily Summary....

U.S. Markets

Dow +207.53 (+1.67%)
Nasdaq +40.86 (+1.74%)
S&P 500 +22.74 (+1.68%)

News That Moved the Market

Markets Rally On Upbeat News From MBIA. Markets had a strong day, with all major sectors finishing higher. After Wednesday's late sell off, despite the Fed cutting 50 basis points, it was important for the markets to bounce back. Arguably the biggest catalyst for the up move was news from bond insurer MBIA (MBI, +6.7%) which reassured investors that it had enough capital to keep its AAA rating and said it would not go bankrupt. MBIA also announced it lost $2.3 billion last quarter, but investors were more worried about the company's future than its past performance.

Google Misses Targets. Google (GOOG, +2.1% day; -7.9% A.H.) fell after posting a 17% increase in profits and a 51% jump in revenue. The figures were short of analysts' estimates. The company's share of the Internet search market rose to 56.3% from 50.8% at the end of last year.

Mixed Economic News. The Department of Labor reported jobless claims increased to 375,000, much higher than expected. The news created fears that tomorrow's Jobs Report would disappoint, but the data was only for one week, and does not carry too much weight. The Department of Commerce announced December personal income increased 0.5%, while spending rose 0.2%. Both figures were basically in-line with estimates. Employment costs increased 0.8%, which was in-line with forecasts.

January Barometer. The S&P 500 finished down 6.1% in January, a bad sign for things to come. The so-call "January Barometer" says the first month of the year determines the performance for the whole year. Though it sounds odd, it has been correct 80% of the time since 1950.

Tomorrow Notable Earnings:

Chevron (CVX) Before Open
Exxon (XOM) Before Open

Economic Events:

Motor Vehicle Sales
8:30 AM: Monthly Jobs Report
8:30 AM: ISM Mfg Index
10:00 AM: Consumer Sentiment
10:00 AM: Construction Spending

Notable Movers:

Potash (POT) up 4.50 to $140.71 - POT was down 6 points on the open today in sympathy with selloff in Peobody Energy

Gamestop (GME) up 2.27 to $51.35 - GME held up nicely around support at $48

Chipotle Mexican Grill (GMG) up 4.79 to $119.86 - CMG was hit hard earlier in the week as parent company (McDonald's) sold off

Zumiez (ZUMZ) up 1.44 to $19.26 - ZUMZ fell to 14 on Jan 22, has since rebounded with Retail stocks.

Google (GOOG) up 14 to $562 - up ahead of tonight's earnings report. Option traders say this stock could go $50 either way after they announce.

Look at Jetblue....

JBLU + .60 to $7.00

Nice move since Monday.

Mortgage Rates Start to Move Higher.....

U.S. fixed-rate mortgages rose for the first time in five weeks, according to Freddie Mac's survey released Thursday. The national average interest rate on the benchmark 30-year, fixed-rate loan averaged 5.68% in the week ending Thursday, up from 5.48% a week ago, but down from 6.34% a year ago.

Basically, the market is telling you that the Fed is done cutting rates and maybe we're not going to fall into a recession....

Washington Mutual Climbs Back to $20...

In the last 15 minutes, WM has accelerated higher...

Now up 1.35 to $20.00

Potash (POT) Down in Sympathy with Peabody...

POT - 2.55 to $133.70

This looks like a Buying Opportunity. Did traders forget Potash's earnings report last week. A blowout and the company guided higher.

Jetblue Continues to Break Off Bottom....

We pointed out on Monday, that JBLU was looking good at $5.00.

The stock is up another .21 to $6.57 this morning.

Another winner!!!

Crocs in Full Breakout Mode Now....

CROX up .31 to $32.87

We highlighted this stock on Monday and pointed out that $31 was a breakout point.

Mastercard Blowing and Going....

Mastercard is up 18 right now to $207.

I thought the consumer was dead???

Nutrisystem continues to climb....

NTRI up .20 to $27.91

We have noticed that the company's new weight loss project: Tori Spelling - former star of Beverly Hills 90210. Looks like they are now going after the 20-something crowd....or maybe she's 30-something.

Under Armour Beats Reduced Estimates...

Under Armour Inc.'s (UA) fourth-quarter net income rose 42% to $16.9 million, or 34 cents a share, from $11.9 million, or 24 cents, a year earlier. The Baltimore athletic wear company said revenue for the quarter ended Dec. 31 rose 29.2% to $174.8 million from $135.3 million a year earlier.

Analysts polled by Thomson Financial, on average, projected earnings of 31 cents a share on revenue of $174 million.

For the first half of 2008, Under Armour projects earnings of 3 cents a share to 5 cents a share. Looking ahead, the company expects annual net revenue of $765 million to $775 million for 2008, an increase of 26% to 28% over 2007. The company also expects income from operations of $108.5 million to $110.5 million, an increase of 26% to 28% over 2007.

Under Armour's stock is breaking off a bottom here (up 1.62 to $39.20). Its 52-week high was at $73 back in August.

Boeing Beats Estimates....

Boeing beats, easing concerns over Dreamliner delays. Boeing (BA) reported a 4% rise in Q4 profit to $1.03 billion ($1.36/share), $0.04 ahead of analyst forecasts. Revenue was flat at $17.5 billion. Boeing also raised 2008 EPS guidance to $5.70-5.85 from $5.55-5.75. Shares rose 2.32%.

Boeing shares are down 1.32 to $81.55

Sony Beats Estimates, Cuts PS3 Target...

Sony (SNE) reported Q3 EPS of $1.67 vs. consensus estimates of $1.31. Q3 revenue of $25.08B was well ahead of Street consensus of $24.82B. Sony cut its 2007 forecast to 9.5M PlayStation 3 sales from 11M.

Shares are down 1.32 to $46.18

Shell Posts "Obscene" Profit....

Royal Dutch Shell (RDS.A) reported full-year earnings on Thursday of $27.6 billion (£14 billion), a record not just for the oil giant but for any European company. High oil prices compensated amply for weak refining margins and lower oil and gas production.

The profit was labeled "obscene" by Tony Woodley, joint general secretary of British trade union Unite, and "absolutely scandalous" by the motorist organization Road Haulage Association.

Mastercard Up on Internet Transactions...

MasterCard beats by $0.17, beats on revs (MA) (Stock at $189.00): Reports Q4 (Dec) earnings of $0.89 per share, excluding non-recurring items, $0.17 better than the First Call consensus of $0.72; revenues rose 27.8% year/year to $1.07 bln vs the $0.98 bln consensus.

Co reports Q4 gross dollar volume up 15.2% vs 12.8% prior, purchase volume up 16.1% vs 14.1% prior.

Starbucks Experiences Minimal Earnings Growth...

Starbucks (SBUX). The Seattle-based coffee giant said late Wednesday first-quarter net earnings rose to $208.1 million, or 28 cents a share, up 1.5% from $205 million, or 26 cents a share, in the same period a year earlier. The latest results were hurt by incremental interest expense related to the company's inaugural senior notes offering during the fourth quarter of 2007, the company said. Net revenue for the first quarter ended Dec. 30 rose 17% to $2.77 billion.

For 2008, Starbucks said it expects "low double digit" per-share profit expansion, citing "continued macroeconomic weakness." The company said it has slowed the pace of store growth in the United States to about 1,175 stores in 2008, down from a revised target of 1,600 stores. It also has increased the store opening target in international markets to about 975 stores.

The stock is down nearly $1 to $18.29 premarket.

MBIA Takes Unprecedented losses...

MBIA Inc. (MBI). The New York-based bond insurer said today it slipped into a fourth quarter loss on the back of "unprecedented" loss reserving and impairment activity. For the three months ended Dec 31, MBIA reported a net loss of $2.3 billion, or $18.61 per share, compared with a $181 million profit, or $1.32 per share the same time last year.

For the full year, the group reported a loss of $1.9 billion, or $15.22 per share, against a profit of $819.3 million, or $5.99 per share last time.

The stock traded down over $2 per share after the close.

Hologic to Split 2 for 1....

Hologic Inc. (HOLX). The Beford, Mass.-based medical supply company said late Wednesday it has approved a two-for-one stock split, to be effected in the form of a stock dividend.

Subject to stockholder approval, the record date for the stock split will be March 21 and the payment date will be April 2. The proposed stock split will increase the number of shares of common stock outstanding to 255.4 million from 127.7 million.

The stock closed yesterday at $61.80.

Eli Lilly May Pay $1 Billion Fine....

Eli Lilly & Co. (LLY). The Indianapolis, IN-based drug maker and federal prosecutors are discussing a settlement of a civil and criminal investigation into the company’s marketing of the antipsychotic drug Zyprexa that could result in Lilly’s paying more than $1 billion to federal and state governments, The New York Times reported on Wednesday, citing several sources close to the matter.

CVS Earnngs Up on Caremark Acquisition...

CVS Caremark Corp. (CVS). The Woonsocket, RI-based drugstore chains operator today reported adjusted fourth-quarter income of $861.1 million, or 58 cents a share. Including certain merger and integration costs, the company reported net income of $815 million, or 55 cents a share.

Net revenue for the quarter rose to $21.94 billion from $12.07 billion a year earlier. Same-store sales for the quarter rose 3.4% from a year earlier.

The stock has a strong level of support right here in the mid 30's.

Amazon: Margins Fall...as does stock...

Amazon.com (AMZN). The Seattle-based web-based retailer Wednesday said fourth-quarter net income more than doubled to $207 million or 48 cents a share from $98 million or 23 cents a share profit recorded in the year-earlier period. Net sales for the quarter ending Dec. 31 rose 42% to $5.67 billion from last year's $3.99 billion.

The company said it expects first-quarter sales of $3.95 billion to $4.15 billion. For 2008, the company said it is targeting sales of $18.75 billion to $19.75 billion.

Shares of Amazon.com Inc. (AMZN) fell 12% to $65.16 in after-hours trading Wednesday after the company's gross margin fell to 20.6%, down from 23.4% in 3Q and 21.3% a year ago, and below the average analyst estimate of 21.4%.

Earnings Today...

Affiliated Computer Svcs Inc (ACS) 2Q .83
Altera Corp. (ALTR) 4Q .18 4:15PM
Anheuser-Busch Cos. Inc. (BUD) 4Q .32
Apache Corp. (APA) 4Q 2.31 BMO
AstraZeneca PLC (AZN) 4Q .95 6:00AM
bebe Stores Inc. (BEBE) 2Q .26
Bristol-Myers Squibb Co. (BMY) 4Q .34
Callaway Golf Co. (ELY) 4Q (.18)
Colgate-Palmolive Co. (CL) 4Q .89
Columbia Sportswear Co. (COLM) 4Q 1.01
CVS Caremark Corp. (CVS) 4Q .55 BMO
E.W. Scripps Co. (SSP) 4Q .70 BMO
Electronic Arts Inc. (ERTS) 3Q .78 AMC
Flowers Foods Inc. (FLO) 4Q .21
Gold Fields Ltd. (GFI) 2Q .13 1:00AM
Goodrich Corp. (GR) 4Q .91 BMO
Google Inc. (GOOG) 4Q 4.09
Hologic Inc. (HOLX) 1Q .45 8:00AM
ImClone Syss Inc. (IMCL) 4Q .24
Intuitive Surgical Inc. (ISRG) 4Q 1.03
Key Energy Svcs Inc. (KEG) 4Q .29
L-3 Commun Hldgs Inc. (LLL) 4Q 1.60 BMO
Marathon Oil Corp. (MRO) 4Q 1.05
MasterCard Inc. (MA) 4Q .70
Mattel Inc. (MAT) 4Q .72 6:00AM
Monster Worldwide Inc. (MNST) 4Q .37 AMC
Nasdaq Stock Market Inc. (NDAQ) 4Q .46 7:00AM
Newell Rubbermaid Inc. (NWL) 4Q .45 BMO
Peabody Energy Corp. (BTU) 4Q .69
Procter & Gamble Co. (PG) 2Q .97
Raytheon Co. (RTN) 4Q .90 6:00AM
RF Micro Devices Inc. (RFMD) 3Q .05 4:00PM
Sony Corp. (SNE) 3Q 1.53
Starwood Hotels & Resorts (HOT) 4Q .67 BMO
Tesoro Corp. (TSO) 4Q .12
Under Armour Inc. (UA) 4Q .31 7:00AM
Western Union Co. (WU) 4Q .31 7:30AM
Wyeth (WYE) 4Q 0.790

Subprime-related losses may surpass $265 billion....

Standard & Poor's estimates that banks, credit unions and foreign financial institutions may be hit with more than $265 billion in losses from securities tied to subprime mortgages. S&P is reviewing credit ratings on $534-billion worth of CDOs and bonds.

The ratings agency said it expects the next round of writedowns will be by smaller financial firms in the U.S., Europe and Asia.

Wednesday, January 30, 2008

Earnings Expected Tomorrow....

Earnings Releases on Thursday...

Affiliated Computer Svcs Inc (ACS) 2Q .83
Altera Corp. (ALTR) 4Q .18 4:15PM
Anheuser-Busch Cos. Inc. (BUD) 4Q .32
Apache Corp. (APA) 4Q 2.31 BMO
AstraZeneca PLC (AZN) 4Q .95 6:00AM
bebe Stores Inc. (BEBE) 2Q .26
Bristol-Myers Squibb Co. (BMY) 4Q .34
Callaway Golf Co. (ELY) 4Q (.18)
Colgate-Palmolive Co. (CL) 4Q .89
Columbia Sportswear Co. (COLM) 4Q 1.01
CVS Caremark Corp. (CVS) 4Q .55 BMO
E.W. Scripps Co. (SSP) 4Q .70 BMO
Electronic Arts Inc. (ERTS) 3Q .78 AMC
Flowers Foods Inc. (FLO) 4Q .21
Gold Fields Ltd. (GFI) 2Q .13 1:00AM
Goodrich Corp. (GR) 4Q .91 BMO
Google Inc. (GOOG) 4Q 4.09
Hologic Inc. (HOLX) 1Q .45 8:00AM
ImClone Syss Inc. (IMCL) 4Q .24
Intuitive Surgical Inc. (ISRG) 4Q 1.03
Key Energy Svcs Inc. (KEG) 4Q .29
L-3 Commun Hldgs Inc. (LLL) 4Q 1.60 BMO
Marathon Oil Corp. (MRO) 4Q 1.05
MasterCard Inc. (MA) 4Q .70
Mattel Inc. (MAT) 4Q .72 6:00AM
Monster Worldwide Inc. (MNST) 4Q .37 AMC
Nasdaq Stock Market Inc. (NDAQ) 4Q .46 7:00AM
Newell Rubbermaid Inc. (NWL) 4Q .45 BMO
Peabody Energy Corp. (BTU) 4Q .69
Procter & Gamble Co. (PG) 2Q .97
Raytheon Co. (RTN) 4Q .90 6:00AM
RF Micro Devices Inc. (RFMD) 3Q .05 4:00PM
Sony Corp. (SNE) 3Q 1.53
Starwood Hotels & Resorts (HOT) 4Q .67 BMO
Tesoro Corp. (TSO) 4Q .12
Under Armour Inc. (UA) 4Q .31 7:00AM
Western Union Co. (WU) 4Q .31 7:30AM
Wyeth (WYE) 4Q 0.790

and Friday.....

Arch Coal Inc. (ACI) 4Q .47 BMO
Automatic Data Processing (ADP) 2Q .53 BMO
Chevron Corp. (CVX) 4Q 2.26
Cummins Inc. (CMI) 4Q 1.05
Exxon Mobil Corp. (XOM) 4Q 1.93
L.M. Ericsson Telephone Co. (ERIC) 4Q .55 1:30AM
Oshkosh Truck Corp. (OSK) 1Q .50
Simon Ppty Grp Inc. (SPG) 4Q .62 BMO
Tidewater Inc. (TDW) 3Q 1.55 BMO

So...we missed on the degree of the cut....

but the market sold off as we expected would happen with a 50 bp cut.

Now the Fed is out of ammo.

Fed cuts rates 1/2 point....

The Dow has turned positive, up 75 points.

Should be a wild afternoon.

What Will the Fed Do???

We think they will cut 25 basis points.

The market will initially sell off and then rally and close higher....then the Fed saves 25 bps for a later cut if needed.

If they go 50 basis points, the Fed just shows that they are a slave to the traders. If they cut 50, then we think the market will sell off and stay lower.

Hey...we gotta predict something.

VMware Catching a Bid This Morning....

VMW up 1.13 to $56.00.

The stock was obliterated yesterday (down nearly 30 points) on a slight miss in Revenues.

A little overdone on the downside...don't you think???

Robert Half Rises After Earnings....

RHI up 1.30 to $26.15

Want a good economic indicator??? This is the stock.

Specialty staffing company Robert Half International Inc (RHI) reported higher quarterly profit on Tuesday, citing demand in its international divisions.

Earnings rose 4.5 percent to $78.8 million, or 50 cents per share, from $75.4 million, or 45 cents per share, a year earlier.

Analysts, on average, had expected a profit of 47 cents per share, according to Reuters Estimates.

Revenue rose 15 percent to $1.22 billion, compared with Wall Street forecasts for sales of $1.2 billion.

PBM's Breaking Higher....

Express Scripps (ESRX) + 2.76 to $67.60
Medco Health (MHS) + 2.35 to $50.38

Looks like traders don't care that WalMart is entering the business.

Check Out Rambus.....

Rambus (RMBS) up 1.40 to $17.92.

This is a crazy stock, but it tends to move in large waves. This is its first move higher since falling from $22 in December.

Shipping Stocks up again....

Dry Bulk Shipping stocks are up for the 2nd straight day.

Leaders:

DRYS + 2.90 to $65.35

DSX + 1.50 to $28.25

Crocs (CROX) continues to break higher...

CROX +.75 to $31.35 on the open.

$31 is a key breakout level.

GDP Slows ....

US GDP Slows To 0.6% Growth In 4Q
U.S. gross domestic product rises at a 0.6% annual rate October through December, pulling growth for all of 2007 to its lowest speed in five years as the housing slump takes a heavy toll. Slowing consumer spending, inventory liquidation and lower overseas sales also restrain the economy.

ADP Sees US Private Sector Jobs Up 130,000

Payrolls giant Automatic Data Processing and consultancy Macroeconomic Advisers says U.S. private sector jobs increase by 130,000 in January, beating forecasts by big margins, setting stage for Friday's payrolls report from the Labor Department.

Stock Futures traded higher after this release.

Baker Hughes...Another Miss...

Baker Hughes misses by $0.02, misses on revs (BHI) 73.44 : Reports Q4 (Dec) earnings of $1.26 per share, $0.02 worse than the First Call consensus of $1.28; revenues rose 11.7% year/year to $2.74 bln vs the $2.79 bln consensus.

Constellation Energy Beats...

Constellation Energy beats by $0.06, beats on revs; guides FY08 EPS in-line (CEG) 92.50 : Reports Q4 (Dec) earnings of $1.48 per share, excluding non-recurring items, $0.06 better than the First Call consensus of $1.42; revenues rose 12.3% year/year to $4.46 bln vs the $3.71 bln consensus.

Co issues in-line guidance for FY08, sees EPS of $5.25-5.75 vs. $5.61 consensus.

Kraft Guides Lower...

Kraft Foods reports EPS in-line, beats on revs; guides FY08 EPS below consensus (KFT) 30.19 : Reports Q4 (Dec) earnings of $0.44 per share, in-line with the First Call consensus of $0.44; revenues rose 10.9% year/year to $10.4 bln vs the $10.05 bln consensus.

Co issues downside guidance for FY08, sees EPS of $1.90, excluding $0.34 in costs related to restructuring, vs. $1.94 consensus.

Merck...No Surprises, but Stock Lower...

Merck beats by $0.06, reports revs in-line; reaffirms FY08 EPS guidance (MRK) 48.01 : Reports Q4 (Dec) earnings of $0.80 per share, excluding non-recurring items, $0.06 better than the First Call consensus of $0.74; revenues rose 3.3% year/year to $6.24 bln vs the $6.29 bln consensus.

Co reaffirms guidance for FY08, sees EPS of $3.28-3.38, excluding non-recurring items, vs. $3.37 consensus.

Boeing Lowers Guidance....

Boeing beats by $0.04, beats on revs; lowers FY08 rev guidance but raises FY08 EPS guidance (BA) 80.96 : Reports Q4 (Dec) earnings of $1.36 per share, $0.04 better than the First Call consensus of $1.32; revenues fell 0.4% year/year to $17.48 bln vs the $17.33 bln consensus. Co lowers its FY08 revenue guidance slightly to $67-68 bln, down from prior guidance of $67.5-68.5 bln and vs $69.6 bln consensus due to the 787 delay.

Co raises FY08 EPS guidance to $5.70-5.85 from $5.55-5.75, as productivity gains are being realized ahead of earlier plans, however it's still below consensus of $5.95.

UPS Reports In-Line Earnings...

UPS reports EPS in-line, beats on revs; guides Q1 EPS in-line; guides FY08 EPS in-line (UPS) 70.92 : Reports Q4 (Dec) earnings of $1.13 per share, in-line with the First Call consensus of $1.13; revenues rose 6.1% year/year to $13.39 bln vs the $13.11 bln consensus. Co issues in-line guidance for Q1, sees EPS of $0.94-0.98 vs. $0.98 consensus.

Co issues in-line guidance for FY08, sees EPS of $4.30-4.50 vs. $4.45 consensus.

Centex (CTX) Loss Widens....

Home Builder Centex's 3Q net loss widens to $975.2 million, or $7.94 a share, hurt by weakness in housing market. Quarter includes a non-cash charge of $500 million to establish a valuation allowance related to deferred tax assets. Revenue falls 30% to $1.91 billion

Tuesday, January 29, 2008

Daily Summary....

U.S. Markets

Dow +96.4
Nasdaq +8.15
S&P 500 +8.33

News That Moved the Market

Stocks Higher With Fed Looming. Markets finished the day up once again, as investors are looking forward to tomorrow's Fed announcement. A 25 basis point cut is already priced in, and Fed fund futures also indicate that the market sees a 74% chance the Fed will cut 50 basis points. Durable goods orders also gave a boost to the market, coming in with a 5.2% gain, easily beating economists' predictions of a 1.6% increase. Markets did drop after the Conference Board announced that consumer confidence fell to 87.9 from 90.6 in December, but they were able to recover with a late rally in the afternoon.

Stimulus Plans Goes to Senate. The House approved the $146 billion economic stimulus plan, which is expected to give rebate checks to 111 million Americans. The bill will now go to the Senate, where some members say they will try to alter the current version, putting some uncertainty on when the rebates will actually go out. Though the plan will put more money in American consumers' hands, many are simply looking at the move as more election year politics and that seems hard argue.

VMWare Plunges. VMWare (VMW, -34.0%) fell hard after missing fourth-quarter targets Monday night. The company is down more than 50% from its peak of over $120/share last year. The company's outlook also disappointed.

Bank of America Reaffirms Countrywide Deal. Bank of America (BAC, +1.8%) CEO Kenneth Lewis reassured Countrywide (CFC, +6.0%) investors that BofA had enough capital to purchase Countrywide after the bank's $13 billion sale of preferred stock last week.

Tomorrow Notable Earnings:

Kraft (KFT) Before Open
UPS (UPS) Before Open
Boeing (BA) Before Open
Amazon (AMZN) After Close
Starbucks (SBUX) After Close

Economic Events:

8:15 AM: ADP Employment Report
8:30 AM: GDP (Advance)
10:30 AM: Crude Inventories
2:15 PM: FOMC Announcement

Yahoo Down After Earnings Announcement...

Shares of Yahoo Inc. (YHOO) are down 11% to $18.62 in after-hours trading after the company said its fiscal fourth-quarter profit fell from a year earlier, amid an ongoing reorganization of the Internet company.

The Sunnyvale, Calif., company said its net income for the period ended in December fell to $205.7 million, or 15 cents a share, from $268.7 million, or 19 cents a share a year earlier. Total revenue rose 8% to $1.8 billion. Net sales, which exclude payments Yahoo makes to other Websites to acquire traffic, rose to $1.4 billion from $1.2 billion.

On average, analysts polled by Thomson Financial had estimated Yahoo would report earnings for the fourth quarter of 11 cents a share on net sales of $1.4 billion.

According to our math...they beat net income estimates by 4 cents and met net revenue estimates. Problem is they also announced that they will lay off 1,000 workers to the tune of $25 Million in the form of a charge....and they lowered guidance for the full year 2008.

Trading Yahoo Ahead of Earnings....

Traders are purchasing February Call Options on Yahoo ahead of their earnings. Activity is heavy on the Feb 20, 22.5 and 25 calls.

The stock, however, is down .44 to $20.33.

Crocs Trying to Break off Lows....

CROX + 1.09 to $30.80

Check out Crocs (CROX). The stock is trying hard to break off of the latest bottom. A move above $31 on high volume would be a breakout.

Rumors that Microsoft is Interested in Purchasing Yahoo...

Interview with Bill Gates on Monday suggests that MSFT is going to go after Google in the Search category. Only way that happens is with a buyout of Yahoo. Yahoo reports today, after the bell......hmmmmm.

Earnings Expected Tomorrow....

AFLAC Inc. (AFL) 4Q .80
Allergan Inc. (AGN) 4Q .57
Alliance Data Sys Corp. (ADS) 4Q .89
Altria Grp Inc. (MO) 4Q .97
Amazon.com Inc. (AMZN) 4Q .51
Baker Hughes Inc. (BHI) 4Q 1.28 BMO
Boeing Co. (BA) 4Q 1.32 7:30AM
Constellation Energy Grp (CEG) 4Q 1.38
Dominion Resources Inc. (D) 4Q .57
Eastman Kodak Co. (EK) 4Q .48 7:00AM
Genlyte Grp Inc. (GLYT) 4Q 1.21
Illinois Tool Works Inc. (ITW) 4Q .85 8:00AM
Kirby Corp. (KEX) 4Q .62 6:00PM
Kraft Foods Inc. (KFT) 4Q .44 7:00AM
MBIA Inc. (MBI) 4Q (2.45) AMC
Merck & Co. Inc. (MRK) 4Q .73
Starbucks Corp. (SBUX) 1Q .28
Wolverine World Wide Inc. (WWW) 4Q 0.430 BMO

Earnings Due Today After the Bell...

Centex Corp. (CTX) Expected to report 3Q earnings of 1.05 a share.

Robert Half Int'l (RHI) Expected to report Q4 earnings of .44 a share.

Yahoo Inc. (YHOO). Expected to report Q4 earnings of $0.11 a share, according to analysts polled by Thomson Financial. This is a decrease of 41.6% over the $0.19 per share earnings reported same time last year.

Fed Meeting Starts....

We won't get announcement on interest rates, though, until tomorrow at 2:15 pm EST.

Nutrisystem Turning Higher....

Nutrisystem (NTRI) is currently up 2.28 to $27.00.

This stock tends to trade in waves. Traders will run it up and then bring it down hard. Why??? Because they can.

Looks like it is getting ready to run. The stock double bottomed at $20 over the last few weeks. A break above $30 would be a clear breakout. Just don't get too greedy. Make some money and get out.

First Solar: Technical Buy...

Check out First Solar (FSLR). Currently up 8 to $185.

The stock is down from a high of $283 made on XMas Eve.

Technically, the stock is breaking hard off the recent bottom in the $170 area on high volume. This looks like a good trade.

Yahoo To Report After the Bell Today...

Yahoo Inc. (YHOO). Expected to report Q4 earnings of $0.11 a share, according to analysts polled by Thomson Financial. This is a decrease of 41.6% over the $0.19 per share earnings reported same time last year.

The stock is currently down .54 to $20.25

Frontier Oil Up on No News....

Frontier Oil (FTO) is up 5 to $37 on no news. The Oil sector is ticking higher this morning but we see no reason for a 15% move on FTO.

There must be something....we'll let you know when we find out.

Google (GOOG) Target Raised...Stock Down...

Analysts raises target to $755 per share... The stock opened + $6. It is now down over $13 a share to $543.

Looks like a big shareholder is trying to lighten up ahead of Thursday's earnings.

Chattem Income Triples...Raises Guidance...

Chattem Inc.'s (CHTT) fiscal fourth-quarter net income tripled to $14.8 million, or 76 cents a share, from $4.91 million, or 26 cents a share, the previous year, due in part to strong performance from its Gold Bond and Icy Hot brands.

Excluding an employee stock option expense, earnings were 81 cents a share, up from 32 cents a share the prior year. On average, analysts polled by Thomson Financial expected earnings of 65 cents a share. Analysts estimates usually exclude items.

The Chattanooga, Tenn., maker of over-the-counter healthcare products, toiletries and dietary supplements said revenue increased 55% to $100.6 million from $65.1 million a year ago. Chattem said it now sees fiscal 2008 earnings of $4 to $4.20 a share, excluding items. Previously, the company projected earnings of $3.90 to $4.10 a share.

The stock is up over 7 dollars to $75 on the news.

Potash (POT) gets 3rd Upgrade in 3 Days....

Since reporting better than expected earnings on Thursday...and raising guidance for 2008, three analysts have raised their ratings on the stock:

BMO Capital Markets raise to Outperform
Wall Street Access raise to Strong Buy
Morgan Stanley raises to Equal Weight

The stock is up 3.25 points this morning to $143. It is up 10% + since Thursday.

Jetblue Airways Beats....

Jetblue Airways beats by $0.03, beats on revs (JBLU) 4.94 : Reports Q4 (Dec) loss of $0.02 per share, $0.03 better than the First Call consensus of ($0.05); revenues rose 16.7% year/year to $739 mln vs the $730.6 mln consensus.

Nice Planes....This stock has been hammered ever since their runway problems. The stock currently sits at $5.00...probably a buy with little downside due to the recent wave of consolidation in the Airline industry.

WalMart Announces Huge Sale....

Just in time for Super Bowl Parties, WalMart is announcing a 10 - 30% off sale on thousands of items, including food and electronics. The company is billing this as their way to help the economy.


Good idea....also should be a good place to spend your upcoming Tax Rebate....don't you think???

Zimmer Holdings (ZMH) Beats Expectations...

Zimmer Holdings 4Q Net Rises 8%
Orthopedics maker says 4Q net income rose to $263.8 million, or $1.12 a share, boosted by the weak dollar. Results top analyst expectations for earnings of $1.04 a share. Revenue rises 15% to $1.07 billion.

Zimmer's stock is up 7 points to $75.25 in premarket trading.

December Durable Goods Orders Up More Than Expected...

Orders for durable goods surge 5.2% to a seasonally adjusted $226.60 billion, after rising 0.5% in November. Economists expected orders to rise 2.1%. Orders for non-defense capital goods excluding aircraft increase 4.4% after falling 0.2% in November, while demand for all durables except transportation rise 2.6%.

Stock futures have surged higher on the news.

Vytorin Prescriptions Down 23%....

Prescriptions for Merck's (MRK) and Schering-Plough's (SGP) embattled cholesterol drug Vytorin drop sharply in two weeks since study raised questions about effectiveness. Companies stand behind drug in reducing bad cholesterol.

Both stocks are down over 20% since the study was first announced....

US Foreclosures Surge....

Foreclosure filings for 2007 soars 75% from a year earlier as homeowners were hit by credit troubles and falling home values, a foreclosure-listing service says. For 2007, there were 2.2 million foreclosure filings, RealtyTrac says.

Don't you just love backwardlooking data??

Monday, January 28, 2008

VMware Down as Revenue Misses...

Shares of VMware Corp. (VMW) plunged 25% to $62 after the virtualization software developer reported that its fourth-quarter revenue came in lower than Wall Street expectations.

The Palo Alto, Calif., company said revenue rose 80% to $412.5 million, from $229.6 million. Analysts, on average, expected VMware to earn 24 cents a share on $417 million in sales. Analysts' estimates typically exclude unusual items.

The company said its profit more than doubled to $78.2 million, or 19 cents a share, from $31 million, or 9 cents a share, a year earlier. Excluding charges and one-time items, VMware would have earned 26 cents a share.

This will also negatively affect EMC Corp., the original parent of VMW.

American Express Reports Lower Net Income....

Shares of American Express Co. (AXP) fell 2.7% to $46.10 in after-hours trading Monday after the credit-card and travel-services giant said its fourth-quarter net income dropped 9.9% as the company set aside more money to cover higher delinquencies and loan write-offs amid rising credit-card losses and a slowdown in consumer spending. The company, which warned of a weakening U.S. economy earlier this month, reported net income of $831 million, or 71 cents a share, compared with $922 million, or 75 cents a share, a year earlier. Earnings from continuing operations were 71 cents a share, compared with 73 cents a share a year earlier. Earlier this month, American Express said it expected earnings from continuing operations to be 70 cents to 72 cents a share. Revenue climbed 13% to $8.4 billion. Analysts polled by Thomson Financial, on average, estimated earnings of 71 cents a share with revenue of $7.85 billion.

Much of this may already be priced in the stock.....

Nice Close.....

Dow +176
S&P + 23
Nasdaq +23

After a shaky start, the market rebounded nicely and held its gains into the close.

The Breadth of the rally was strong as shorts have clearly lost control of the market....at least for now.

Today's gains basically erased Friday's selloff. The next two days should be interesting as traders position themselves for the scheduled Fed meeting and decision on interest rates on Wednesday. It is widely thought that the Fed will cut the Fed Funds rate another 1/2 point at that meeting.

Potash (POT) Heading Back up....

POT up 5.75 to $138.60

The company had a nice earnings report last Thursday and guided higher for the upcoming year. It is trading 10% below its all-time high of $152.

NYSE New Highs....

Barrick Gold (ABX) $53.46, up $1.29

Alberto Culver (ACV) $25.27, up $1.75

Consolidated Energy (CNX) $76.11, up $3.10

Nasdaq Stocks Hitting 52-Week Highs Today...

Accorda Therapeudics (ACOR) $26.08, up $4.30

Matria Healthcare (MATR) $32.26, up $1.57

MGI Pharmaceutical (MOGN) $41.22, up $0.23

Auxilium Pharmaceutical (AUXL) $31.57, up $0.87

Vivus Inc. (VVUS) $6.22, up $0.17

Medtronic Begins Trials on New Pacemaker...

MDT up .30 to $46.42

Medtronic (MDT) announces FDA approval to begin clinical trial of first pacemaker system designed for safe use in MRI machines.

Lockheed Martin (LMT) Likely to Win Indian Contract...

LMT up .88 to $106.37

The Bethesda, MD-based defense contractor is set to win a $1 billion contract for six Hercules transport planes from India, an official said Monday. A formal contract is likely to be issued next month to the company, which is also in the race for a $10 billion contract to sell 126 fighter jets to the Indian air force.

Honda Global Output Increases...

Honda Motor Co Ltd. (HMC). Japan's second-largest auto maker said today its global vehicle output in December rose 5.5% to 298,824 vehicles from a year earlier, led by brisk overseas output.

HMC currently trades at $30.00, down from a high of $41 hit last February.

New Home Sales Tumble...

New-home sales tumbled to the lowest mark in 12 years during December and prices also fell sharply. Sales of single-family homes decreased by 4.7% last month to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 604,000, the Commerce Department said Monday. November new-home sales fell 12.6% to an annual rate to 634,000; originally, the government said November sales fell by 9.0% to 647,000.

Economists forecast December sales at an annual rate of 650,000. The pace of 604,000 was the worst since 559,000 in February 1995.

Year over year, new-home sales were 40.7% lower than the level in December 2006.

Regionally last month, new-home sales decreased 6.5% in the South, 1.2% in the Midwest, and 6.0% in the West. Sales rose 6.0% in the Northeast.

Investors Like Wellcare Change at the Top...

WCG up 5.38 to $48.50

Wellcare Health Plans Inc. (WCG) named Charles Berg as executive chairman and Heath Schiesser as president and chief executive officer, effective immediately, after three executives resigned from their positions. The managed-care services provider said the shakeup is in the "best long-term interest of the company."

Analysts Cut Q4 Earnings Projections...

A Reuters survey indicated that Wall Street analysts have cut their Q4 earnings estimates for S&P 500 companies. They now see earnings growth falling 17.6% in the quarter, down from the 10.9% decline they forecast a week ago. Earnings in the financial sector are expected to show a 91% drop, but technology earnings are forecast to have grown 26%.

This is actually a positive for the future. Reduced expectations are easier to meet or exceed.

Sony Ericsson Joint Venture Goes After iTunes Market....

Sony Ericsson lands content deals with 3 top labels. The Sony Ericsson JV (SNE), (ERIC) has arranged deals with ten music providers, including Sony BMG, Warner Music Group and EMI, for its online music store, which will launch in May.

The venture's PlayNow service, which will rival Apple's (AAPL) iTunes and Nokia's (NOK) Ovi, will provide over five million music tracks in 30 countries by the end of 2008.

Naxavar Approved in Japan....

Bayer beats rivals to Japanese market with cancer drug. Bayer AG's (BAYRY.PK) treatment for advanced kidney cancer, Nexavar, has been approved for use in Japan.

The drug, which is already approved in the U.S. and Europe, is codeveloped by Onyx Pharmaceuticals (ONXX).

Countrywide CEO to Forego Big Pay Package...

Angelo Mozilo, chairman and CEO of Countrywide Financial (CFC), will forfeit $37.5 million of severance pay, fees and benefits that he was to have received upon retiring.

Mozilo is expected to step down when Bank of America (BAC) completes its acquisition of the lender.

Earnings This Week That May Move the Market...

Monday

American Express Co. (AXP) 4Q .74 AMC
Corning Inc. (GLW) 4Q .39 BMO
Halliburton Co. (HAL) 4Q .69
McDonald's Corp. (MCD) 4Q .71
SanDisk Corp. (SNDK) 4Q .55 AMC
Verizon Commun Inc. (VZ) 4Q .62 7:30AM
VMware Inc. (VMW) 4Q .20 AMC

Tuesday

3M Co. (MMM) 4Q 1.16
Burlington Northern Santa Fe (BNI) 4Q 1.40 8:00AM
Centex Corp. (CTX) 3Q (1.05)AMC
Chattem Inc. (CHTT) 4Q .64 BMO
Countrywide Fincl Corp. (CFC) 4Q (.11) BMO
Dow Chemical Co. (DOW) 4Q .81 6:30AM
Eli Lilly & Co. (LLY) 4Q .89
EMC Corp. (EMC) 4Q .22
JetBlue Airways Corp. (JBLU) 4Q (.01) BMO
Lexmark Intl Inc. (LXK) 4Q .56
Northwest Airlines Corp. (NWA) 4Q (.02)
Robert Half Intl Inc. (RHI) 4Q .47 4:00PM
Scotts Miracle-Gro Co. (SMG) 1Q (1.04) BMO
Sherwin-Williams Co. (SHW) 4Q .84 9:00AM
Smith Intl Inc. (SII) 4Q .88 BMO
T. Rowe Price Grp Inc. (TROW) 4Q .63
Travelers Cos. Inc. (TRV) 4Q 1.58
USG Corp. (USG) 4Q (.11) BMO
Valero Energy Corp. (VLO) 4Q .79
Yahoo! Inc. (YHOO) 4Q .12 5:00PM
Zimmer Hldgs Inc. (ZMH) 4Q 1.040

Wednesday

AFLAC Inc. (AFL) 4Q .80
Allergan Inc. (AGN) 4Q .57
Alliance Data Sys Corp. (ADS) 4Q .89
Altria Grp Inc. (MO) 4Q .97
Amazon.com Inc. (AMZN) 4Q .51
Baker Hughes Inc. (BHI) 4Q 1.28 BMO
Boeing Co. (BA) 4Q 1.32 7:30AM
Constellation Energy Grp (CEG) 4Q 1.38
Dominion Resources Inc. (D) 4Q .57
Eastman Kodak Co. (EK) 4Q .48 7:00AM
Genlyte Grp Inc. (GLYT) 4Q 1.21
Illinois Tool Works Inc. (ITW) 4Q .85 8:00AM
Kirby Corp. (KEX) 4Q .62 6:00PM
Kraft Foods Inc. (KFT) 4Q .44 7:00AM
MBIA Inc. (MBI) 4Q (2.45) AMC
Merck & Co. Inc. (MRK) 4Q .73
Starbucks Corp. (SBUX) 1Q .28
Wolverine World Wide Inc. (WWW) 4Q 0.430 BMO

Thursday

Affiliated Computer Svcs Inc (ACS) 2Q .83
Altera Corp. (ALTR) 4Q .18 4:15PM
Anheuser-Busch Cos. Inc. (BUD) 4Q .32
Apache Corp. (APA) 4Q 2.31 BMO
AstraZeneca PLC (AZN) 4Q .95 6:00AM
bebe Stores Inc. (BEBE) 2Q .26
Bristol-Myers Squibb Co. (BMY) 4Q .34
Callaway Golf Co. (ELY) 4Q (.18)
Colgate-Palmolive Co. (CL) 4Q .89
Columbia Sportswear Co. (COLM) 4Q 1.01
CVS Caremark Corp. (CVS) 4Q .55 BMO
E.W. Scripps Co. (SSP) 4Q .70 BMO
Electronic Arts Inc. (ERTS) 3Q .78 AMC
Flowers Foods Inc. (FLO) 4Q .21
Gold Fields Ltd. (GFI) 2Q .13 1:00AM
Goodrich Corp. (GR) 4Q .91 BMO
Google Inc. (GOOG) 4Q 4.09
Hologic Inc. (HOLX) 1Q .45 8:00AM
ImClone Syss Inc. (IMCL) 4Q .24
Intuitive Surgical Inc. (ISRG) 4Q 1.03
Key Energy Svcs Inc. (KEG) 4Q .29
L-3 Commun Hldgs Inc. (LLL) 4Q 1.60 BMO
Marathon Oil Corp. (MRO) 4Q 1.05
MasterCard Inc. (MA) 4Q .70
Mattel Inc. (MAT) 4Q .72 6:00AM
Monster Worldwide Inc. (MNST) 4Q .37 AMC
Nasdaq Stock Market Inc. (NDAQ) 4Q .46 7:00AM
Newell Rubbermaid Inc. (NWL) 4Q .45 BMO
Peabody Energy Corp. (BTU) 4Q .69
Procter & Gamble Co. (PG) 2Q .97
Raytheon Co. (RTN) 4Q .90 6:00AM
RF Micro Devices Inc. (RFMD) 3Q .05 4:00PM
Sony Corp. (SNE) 3Q 1.53
Starwood Hotels & Resorts (HOT) 4Q .67 BMO
Tesoro Corp. (TSO) 4Q .12
Under Armour Inc. (UA) 4Q .31 7:00AM
Western Union Co. (WU) 4Q .31 7:30AM
Wyeth (WYE) 4Q 0.790

Friday

Arch Coal Inc. (ACI) 4Q .47 BMO
Automatic Data Processing (ADP) 2Q .53 BMO
Chevron Corp. (CVX) 4Q 2.26
Cummins Inc. (CMI) 4Q 1.05
Exxon Mobil Corp. (XOM) 4Q 1.93
L.M. Ericsson Telephone Co. (ERIC) 4Q .55 1:30AM
Oshkosh Truck Corp. (OSK) 1Q .50
Simon Ppty Grp Inc. (SPG) 4Q .62 BMO
Tidewater Inc. (TDW) 3Q 1.55 BMO

McDonald's Beats Estimates....Stock sells off...

McDonald's 4Q EPS $1.06 Vs EPS $1.00
DOW JONES NEWSWIRES
McDonald's Corp., (MCD) the Oak Brook, Ill., fast-food restaurant giant, reported fourth-quarter net income rose 2.6% on a 5.7% increase in sales and 6.7% boost in comparable sales.

Earnings rose to $1.27 billion, or $1.06 a share, from $1.24 billion, or $1.00 a share, in the year-earlier period. Results for the latest period included a tax benefit of 33 cents a share. Currency fluctuations added an additional 4 cents a share.

Earnings from continuing operations were $1.06 a share compared with 61 cents a year ago.

A survey of analysts by Thomson Financial produced a consensus earnings estimate of 71 cents for the latest quarter.

The company reported fatter profit margins for the eight consecutive quarter.

The stock is down 3.30 to $50.80 in premarket trading.

Haliburton Tops Estimates...

Halliburton Co.'s (HAL) fourth-quarter net income rose 4.9% to $690 million, or 75 cents a share, from $658 million, or 64 cents a share, a year earlier.

The Houston energy and engineering services company said earnings from continuing operations were 74 cents a share, compared with 61 cents a share a year ago.

Revenue climbed 19% to $4.18 billion from $3.51 billion.

Analysts polled by Thomson Financial, on average, expected earnings of 69 cents a share on revenue of $4.06 billion.

Results from the latest quarter included charges of $22 million from the impairment of an oil and gas property and $8 million in executive separation costs. The results benefited from a lower tax rate, Halliburton said.

Corning Guides Higher....

Corning beats by $0.01, beats on revs; guides Q1 EPS above consensus, revs above consensus (GLW) $22.37 :

Reports Q4 (Dec) earnings of $0.40 per share, excluding non-recurring items, $0.01 better than the First Call consensus of $0.39; revenues rose 15.6% year/year to $1.58 bln vs the $1.55 bln consensus. Co issues upside guidance for Q1, sees EPS of $0.41-0.43, excluding non-recurring items, vs. $0.36 consensus; sees Q1 revs of $1.59-1.62 bln vs. $1.52 bln consensus. Co said, "We believe first-quarter panel maker inventory levels are lower this year than last year. We expect panel makers to maintain high utilization rates throughout the first quarter, which will drive continued strong glass demand.

Looking forward, we anticipate the LCD glass supply and demand balance will remain tight throughout the year, absent the impact of any potential downturn in the economy."

Verizon Earnings....In Line with Estimates...

Verizon reports EPS in-line, revs in-line; adds 2 mln new net wireless subs; adds 226k FiOS TV customers (VZ) $37.76 :

Reports Q4 (Dec) earnings of $0.62 per share, ex items, in-line with the First Call consensus of $0.62; revenues rose 5.5% year/year to $23.84 bln vs the $23.96 bln consensus. For wireless co reports Q4 2.0 mln total net customer additions, 1.9 mln net retail customer additions; 65.7 mln total customers, 63.7 mln retail (non-wholesale) customers; 6.9 mln retail net adds in 2007, the most of any carrier. Co reports Q4 226,000 net new FiOS TV customers, 943,000 total FiOS TV customers at year-end;

Verizon now has more than 1 mln FiOS TV customers.

Saturday, January 26, 2008

This is unbelievable.....

Federal Reserve Chairman Ben S. Bernanke discovered that an Ivy League career just doesn't leave the same impression as a Wall Street resume for some lawmakers.

Approaching his second anniversary at the helm of the U.S. central bank, Bernanke found himself mistaken for Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson during a hearing in Congress today.

``Seeing as how you were the former CEO of Goldman Sachs,'' Representative Marcy Kaptur, a Democrat from Ohio, began to say before the Fed chief interjected.

``No, you're confusing me with the Treasury secretary,'' Bernanke said at the House Budget Committee hearing. Paulson was the chief executive officer of Goldman Sachs Group Inc. before joining the Treasury in 2006.

``I got the wrong firm?'' asked Kaptur, 61, who is serving her 13th term and represents northern Ohio's ninth Congressional district.

``Yes,'' replied Bernanke.

``Paulson. Oh, OK. Where were you, sir?''

``I was a CEO of the Princeton Economics Department,'' Bernanke replied to laughter from the hearing room. Bernanke, 54, chaired the economics department at the Ivy League university before becoming a Fed governor in 2002. He later headed the White House Council of Economic Advisers, becoming Fed chairman in February 2006.

Bernanke, who appears on the cover of this coming Sunday's New York Times magazine, acknowledged before Congress today that the economy is weak enough to need fiscal stimulus.

``It was an honest mistake,'' said Emily Boening, a spokeswoman for Kaptur. ``But the Republicans have made bigger, more severe mistakes on economic policy. It was a few seconds of a very productive hearing otherwise.''