Saturday, February 23, 2008

Friday's Trading Summary...

U.S. Markets:

Dow +96.72 (+0.79%)
Nasdaq +3.57 (+0.16%)
S&P 500 +10.58 (+0.79%)

News That Moved the Market:

Scary Session Finishes With Happy Ending. With little news after Thursday's disastrous Philly Fed figures, the markets drifted lower throughout the morning before finding support in the afternoon. In the last minutes of the session, CNBC reporter Charles Gasparino announced that a source had told him a bailout plan for troubled bond insurer Ambac (ABK, +16.0%) was close to being completed and could be announced early next week. Though the details were sketchy, MarketWatch added the plan may include eight banks that are major counterparties to Ambac. The list includes Citigroup (C, +0.3%), Barclays (BCS, +3.4%), UBS (UBS, +3.0%), and Wachovia (WB, +2.9%), among others. The markets shot up on the news, with the S&P gaining 2% after the announcement. The deal is not complete and could fall apart, but if the deal is announced, investors would feel as if a major disaster would have been averted and could start putting money back in financials.

Weak Outlook At Intuit. Intuit Inc. (INTU, -9.2%), maker of small business software such as QuickBooks and TurboTax, announced fiscal second quarter results which were in-line with analysts' forecasts, however, the company lowered its fiscal third-quarter EPS estimates. There were some interesting comments make by CEO Brad Smith: "Small businesses are out there competing in this market and the small business customers we serve are very much like consumers… A lot of small businesses today will operate their business with lines of credit, credit cards, home equity loans, and we know the condition there."

Quick Tics:

Fannie Mae (FNM, -0.9%) and Freddie Mac (FRE, -4.1%) were both downgraded at Merrill Lynch citing bad business conditions.

Next week's important economic figures include PPI (Tuesday), Durable Goods (Wednesday), Preliminary GDP (Thursday), and Personal Income and Outlays (Friday).

Monday's Notable Earnings:

Nordstrom (JWN) After CloseLowe's Companies (LOW) Time Not Supplied

Economic Events:

10:00 AM: Existing Home Sales

Stocks to Watch on Monday....

Fashion specialty retailer Nordstrom Inc. (JWN) is expected to report fourth-quarter earnings of 90 cents a share, according to analysts polled by FactSet Research.

Lowe's Companies (LOW), the second-largest home improvement retailer in the world, is projected to report fourth-quarter earnings of 25 cents a share.

Sotheby's Holdings, Inc (BID) is forecast to post earnings of $1.49 a share in the fourth quarter.

LDK Solar Co. (LDK), manufacturer of multicrystalline solar wafers, is expected to report fourth-quarter earnings of 41 cents a share.

FirstEnergy (FE), a diversified energy company, is forecast to report earnings of 94 cents a share in the fourth quarter.

Shanda Interactive Entertainment (SNDA), a China-based interactive entertainment media company, is estimated to post earnings of 45 cents a share in the fourth quarter.

Tesco (TESO), manufacturer of technology-based solutions for the upstream energy industry, is likely to report earnings of 22 cents a share in the fourth quarter.

After Friday's closing bell, Genentech Inc. (DNA) said the U.S. Food and Drug Administration granted an accelerated approval for Avastin, in combination with paclitaxel chemotherapy, for the treatment of patients who have not received chemotherapy for their metastatic breast cancer. Accelerated approval means that the FDA must still review data on the drug before granting full market approval. The approval is based on a Phase III study that showed that Avastin in combination with paclitaxel chemotherapy resulted in a 52% reduction in the risk of disease progression or death. Avastin is already FDA-approved for colorectal cancer and non-small-cell lung cancer.

How to Accept an Oscar....

Whether you're accepting an Oscar or any other award, preparation is the key to being quotable. Toastmasters International President Chris Ford says, "Every acceptance speech should demonstrate gratitude, recognition and sincerity -- and good delivery." He offers the following tips for adding rhythm and pacing to your award acceptance speech:

-- Write your speech as a script, and memorize it!

-- Pause, smile and count to three before saying anything. ("One one-thousand, two one-thousand, three one-thousand. Pause. Begin.)

-- Begin by addressing the audience. It buys you time and calms your nerves. Remember, the audience is rooting for you.

-- Practice, practice, practice! Rehearse with a timer and allow time for the unexpected.

-- Control filler words (ums and ahs; "you knows"). To do so, see above points: Practice, pause and breathe.

-- Keep names to a minimum and get them right!

-- Include a brief but touching anecdote or little-known fact regarding the role or job you are recognized for.

-- Mainly, your acceptance speech should represent you -- as a professional and as a person.

-- Concentrate on your message. You have important thoughts to convey, so focus on your speech, not on the audience.

-- Make your last line expendable, in case you are cut off.

Friday, February 22, 2008

Trading Resumes in Genentech....

The stock is up 6.25 to $78 in after market trading...

Reason For Late Move....

Ambac Bailout May Be Announced Next Week
New York State Insurance Department's plan to bail out troubled bond insurer Ambac Financial could be announced Monday or Tuesday, reports CNBC's Charlie Gasparino, citing conversations with "bankers working on the deal."

FDA Approves Genentech's Avastin Drug...

Genentech, Inc. (NYSE:DNA) today announced that the U.S. Food and Drug Administration (FDA) granted accelerated approval for Avastin(R) (bevacizumab), in combination with paclitaxel chemotherapy, for the treatment of patients who have not received chemotherapy for their metastatic HER2-negative breast cancer.

This is huge surprise for Genentech...

Genentech Stock Halted....

DNA is halted with news pending.

It last traded at $71.60

Stocks Turn Green....

The Dow Jones Industrial Average recovers from a triple-digit decline to trade positive on news of a potential bailout of troubled bond insurer Ambac. Stocks had been lower most of the day amid nervousness about the economy and downgrades of federal home lenders Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac.

Today's Downgrades....

Agnico-Eagle (AEM) by Salman to Hold from Buy

Barrick Gold (ABX) by UBS to Neutral from Buy

Best Buy (BBY) by Morgan Stanley to Underweight from Equal Weight

ChoicePoint (CPS) by GARP to Neutral from Buy

Fannie Mae (FNM) by Merrill Lynch to Sell from Neutral

Freddie Mac (FRE) by Merrill Lynch to Sell from Neutral

Freeport-McMoran (FCX) by Desjardins to Hold from Buy

Gilead (GILD) by Sanford Berstein to Mkt Perform from Outperform

Goldcorp (GG) by R James to Mkt Perform from Outperform

Goldcorp (GG) by Salman to Hold from Buy

Kinross Gold (KGC) by Genuity to Hold from Buy

Kinross Gold (KGC) by UBS to Neutral from Buy

Nicor Inc (GAS) by Baird to Neutral from Outperform

Today's Upgrades...

American Equity (AEL) by KeyBanc to Buy from Hold

Bristow Grp (BRS) by C. Suisse to Neutral from Underperform

DCP Midstream (DPM) by Wachovia to Outperform from Mkt Perform

DirecTV (DTV) by Cowen & Co to Outperform from Neutral

Discover Fnl Svcs (DFS) by Morgan Stanley to Overweight from Underweight

Dynavax Tech (DVAX) by Oppenheimer to Outperform from Perform

Health Management (HMA) by Raymond James to Mkt Perform from Underperform

Hillenbrand (HB) by Hilliard Lyons to Buy from Neutral

ImClone Sys (IMCL) by Cowen & Co. to Outperform from Neutral

Switch & Data (SDXC) by Raymond James to Strong Buy from Outperform

Williams Cos (WMB) by RBC to Outperform from Sector Perform

Earnings Reports Due on Monday....

American Tower Corp. (AMT) 4Q .08 6:00AM
Atlas Pipeline Partners L.P. (APL) 4Q .62 AMC
China TechFaith Wireless Commun Tech (CNTF) 4Q .04 AMC
Donaldson Co. Inc. (DCI) 2Q .42 AMC
EXCO Resources Inc. (XCO) 4Q .06 AMC
FirstEnergy Corp. (FE) 4Q .94
Grant Prideco Inc. (GRP) 4Q 1.09
Greatbatch Inc. (GB) 4Q .22 4:00PM
GulfMark Offshore Inc. (GLF) 4Q 1.13 6:00AM
Henry Schein Inc. (HSIC) 4Q .82 BMO
Hilb Rogal & Hobbs Co. (HRH) 4Q .55 AMC
Human Genome Sciences Inc. (HGSI) 4Q (.54) AMC
Keryx BioPharms Inc. (KERX) 4Q (.44)
LDK Solar Co. Ltd. (LDK) 4Q .41 AMC
Lowe's Cos. (LOW) 4Q .25
Nationwide Health Ppties Inc. (NHP) 4Q .33 AMC
Nordstrom Inc. (JWN) 4Q .90
ONEOK Inc. (OKE) 4Q .94 AMC
ONEOK Partners L.P. (OKS) 4Q 1.20 AMC
Orient Express Hotels Ltd. (OEH) 4Q .20 AMC
Perfect World Co. Ltd. (PWRD) 4Q .28 BMO
Shanda Interactive Entertain Ltd. (SNDA) 4Q .45 AMC
Sirtris Pharms Inc. (SIRT) 4Q (.34) AMC
Tesco Corp. (TESO) 4Q .22 BMO
TNS Inc. (TNS) 4Q .21 AMC
USEC Inc. (USU) 4Q .09 AMC
Verenium Corp. (VRNM) 4Q (.20) AMC
Zebra Tech Corp. (ZBRA) 4Q .43 BMO

S&P Slashes GMAC Ratings...

Standard & Poor's cut its rating on GMAC three notches deeper into junk territory and warns the finance company may not be able to remain a better credit risk than its former parent, GM. Ratings agency says further downgrades are possible.

Short List of Stocks to BUY.....

Reviewing earnings reports since January 1. Here is a list of companies that have Beat Earnings Expectations AND have Raised Guidance for the future.

These are stocks you want to BUY if given an opportunity on a pullback...

Potash (POT)
Terex (TEX)
Intuitive Surgical (ISRG)
Hewlett-Packard (HPQ)
Medco Health (MHS)
Buffalo Wild Wings (BWLD)
Gamestop (GME)
Mosanto (MON)
JC Penney (JCP)
Zimmer Holdings (ZMH)
Sohu (SOHU)
Dolby Labs (DLB)
Research in Motion (RIMM)
Express Scripts (ESRX)
Boeing (BA)
Chattem (CHTT)
Corning (GLW)
IBM (IBM)

Latest Apple Patent Filing....

A new Apple (AAPL) patent describes a large touch-based system designed to be used with both hands simultaneously. Perhaps a competitor to Microsoft's delayed Surface?

ImClone Gets Upgraded...

Cowen and Co. upgraded biotech company ImClone Systems (IMCL) to outperform from neutral, saying that based on conversations with physician consultants, it believes Erbitux's prospects for gaining significant market share in the treatment of lung cancer are quite good.

Medical Device Makers Celebrate Victory...

Since Wednesday's Supreme Court ruling protecting medical device maker Medtronic (MDT) from personal injury lawsuits, lawyers and judges have been busily reexamining similar cases against companies like Johnson & Johnson (JNJ), Boston Scientific (BSX) and St. Jude Medical (STJ) to decide whether the suits should be closed down.

Microsoft Opens Source Code...

In the hopes of encouraging programmers to build add-ons to its products, Microsoft (MSFT) announced broad steps to open up its source code. Microsoft hopes the move will give it leverage against rival online software suites that make it easy to build plug-ins that enhance usability and function. Developers and regulators were pleased by the move, although some were skeptical of Microsoft's commitment to interoperability.

Jeff Bezos Selling Shares of Amazon....

Shares in Amazon.com Inc. (AMZN) fell 5.1% Thursday after the Internet retailer revealed that founder and Chief Executive Jeff Bezos sold more than $135 million worth of shares, his first insider sale in more than three years.

Nothing wrong with this....I guess he's learned from the past.

Chesapeake Energy Beats Estimates...

Chesapeake Energy Corp. (CHK, $44.18), the largest independent U.S. natural gas producer, reported fourth-quarter net income of $303 million, falling from $471 million a year ago. After paying preferred stock dividends and including losses on the conversion of preferred stock, earnings fell to 33 cents a share from 96 cents a share. Excluding one-time items, the company earned $466 million, or 93 cents a share, from ongoing operations. Revenue rose 12% to $2.09 billion.

Analysts surveyed had predicted the company would earn 82 cents a share on $1.96 billion in revenue.

This has been a hot stock lately with the latest move in Natural Gas prices.

Intuit Earnings Miss Estimates..

Intuit Inc. (INTU). The Mountain View, CA.-based provider of business and financial management software said late Thursday its second-quarter net profit dipped to $115.2 million, or $0.34 a share, from $145.4 million, or $0.40 a share, in the year-ago period. Total net revenue rose to $834.9 million from $750.6 million in the previous year period.

The company was expected to earn 36 cents a share.

Have you noticed how much they jacked up the price on Turbotax this year???