Wednesday, November 9, 2011

Volatility Index shoots higher....

With all 30 Dow stocks flashing red, it's not a surprise the VIX is rocketing higher, up 8.61 to 36.09, on European fears. The market's fear gauge hasn't fallen below the psychologically-important 20 mark since before S&P downgraded the U.S. as volume stays high for short-term puts betting against a market recovery.

Joe Frazier dies...

Smokin' Joe Frazier died yesterday....one of my favorite all-time athletes.  Here is a fitting tribute.


http://espn.go.com/boxing/story/_/id/7206261/joe-frazier-former-heavyweight-champion-dead-67

Stocks reporting after the close...

Pegasystems (PEGA)
Opnet (OPNT)
Cisco Systems (CSCO)
Mako Surgical (MAKO)
Green Mountain Coffee (GMCR)
Fleetcor (FLT)

At 1 pm....

Stocks are still lower.

Dow -239
Nas -61
S&P -28 to 1247

Not much has changed in the last couple of hours....stocks still near their lows of the day.

Banks seem to be selling off more than any other groups. 

Universal Display up on earnings and revenue growth....

Universal Display (PANL) is up 3.00 to 52.45 after beating Q3 estimates, and guiding for Q4 revenue of $15.4M-$19.4M ($15.3M consensus). During its Q3 CC, management reiterated prior comments about a recent German patent ruling being in its favor (though the details make that debatable), and added that its licensing deal with Samsung involves bi-annual fixed payments.

I don't like the last revelation that the Samsung deal is FIXED.  Not exactly as positive as if the deal would have been royalties based on sales.

At 10:45 am...

Stocks are broadly lower, as focus shifts to Italy....

Dow -306
Nas -75
S&P -34 to 1241

These selloffs are getting a little old.  Not sure they will keep stocks lower as we move into the afternoon, though.

Today's upgrades and downgrades...

These are some of Wednesday’s top analyst upgrades, downgrades, and initiations seen from Wall Street research calls.

Alaska Communications Systems Group Inc. (NASDAQ: ALSK) Cut to Underperform at BofA/ML.

Autodesk Inc. (NASDAQ: ADSK) Cut to Neutral at BofA/ML.

Avon Products, Inc. (NYSE: AVP) cut to Underperform as Bear of the Day at Zacks.

Blue Nile Inc. (NASDAQ: NILE) Cut to Sell at Deutsche Bank.

China Automotive Systems Inc. (NASDAQ: CAAS) Cut to Neutral at Piper Jaffray.

DreamWorks Animation SKG Inc. (NYSE: DWA) Cut to Sell at Janney.

Equity Residential (NYSE: EQR) Raised to Buy at Argus.

H&R Block, Inc. (NYSE: HRB) Raised to Outperform at Oppenheimer.

Priceline.com Inc. (NASDAQ: PCLN) Cut to Hold at S&P Capital IQ (late-Tuesday).

Rite Aid Corporation (NYSE: RAD) Raised to Outperform at Credit Suisse.

Rovi Corporation (NASDAQ: ROVI) has seen at least three downgrades: Collins Stewart, CLSA, Brean Murray.

Spectrum Pharmaceuticals, Inc. (NASDAQ: SPPI) named Momentum stock of the day at Zacks.

Textainer Group Holdings Limited (NYSE: TGH) named Value stock of the day at Zacks.

Walgreen Co. (NYSE: WAG) Cut to Neutral at Credit Suisse.

The Washington Post Co. (NYSE: WPO) named Bull of the Day at Zacks.

ROVI disappoints...

Shares of electronic television programming guide vendor Rovi are down sharply on a disappointing financial outlook.

For Q3, the company posted revenue of $196.5 million, up from $138 million a year ago, but a bit below the Street consensus at $197.9 million. Pro forma profits of 63 cents a share topped the Street consensus at 61 cents.

The issue for the stock was the guidance the company provided on the call. For starters, the company now sees full year results at the lower end of its previous guidance ranges of revenues of $770 million to $810 million, and profits of $2.35 to $2.60. Rovi also said on its conference call that it sees revenue in 2012 increasing in the mid-to-high single digit range, well below the 15.5% growth that the Street has been forecasting.

Activision losing subscribers...

Activision Blizzard (ATVI). The video games publisher revealed it has lost almost a million users for its "World of Warcraft" cash cow, dampening enthusiasm for its blockbuster "Call of Duty" franchise. It now expects earnings per share of 85 cents on revenue of $4.25 billion for 2011. Adjusted for revenue from online games, it posted earnings per share of 7 cents, which beat Wall Street's expectations of 2 cents per share.

This may be a great short right here...

Futures point to lower open...

U.S. stock index futures pointed to a lower open on Wall Street Wednesday as investors still watched Europe with caution after Italian Prime Minister Silvio Berlusconi announced he would step down once a series of austerity measures had been put in place.

The austerity program could in theory be completed by Christmas, and observers suggested a government of technocrats could run the country until scheduled elections in 2013, although Berlusconi himself suggested Tuesday night that new elections would be preferable.

The yield on Italian sovereign debt, however, rose as high as 7 percent in morning trade after LCH.Clearnet raised the initial margin call applied to Italian debt by between 3.5 and 5 percentage points across all maturities of BTP and inflation-linked BTP bonds.

That led European markets, which had opened the day higher on the announcement of the Italian premier’s resignation, into negative territory.

The FTSEurofirst 300 index of top European shares fell 1.4 percent at 969.84 points, reversing Tuesday's 0.9 percent rise.

Yesterday's wrap up from IBD...

Stocks closed with solid gains and near session highs Tuesday after seesaw trading linked to Italy's debt drama.  The Nasdaq and S&P 500 tacked on 1.2%, after trading as much as 0.5% lower at midday. The NYSE composite rose 1.1%.  Volume increased across the board from Monday's levels.

The market has bounced back since the sell-off of Oct. 31-Nov. 1. Two up days in that span of time came in higher volume. For the fifth straight day, indexes closed near session highs.

Meanwhile, leading stocks have displayed encouraging action. Sell signals remain rare and more breakouts are occurring.

The positive tone indicates that the pressure the market had faced recently has dissipated and its uptrend is back to normal.

Stocks started out higher, but dropped into the red around midday as a key vote in debt-wracked Italy sent a mixed signal. Italian Prime Minister Silvio Berlusconi lost his parliamentary majority, yet he still managed to win a key budget vote.

It initially wasn't clear what would happen to Berlusconi. But he then promised to resign after Italian lawmakers approve new austerity measures. Once the news hit the wires, U.S. stocks went into the black and to new session highs.

The S&P 500 finished above its 200-day moving average, after closing below that long-term support level for six straight days.

Advancers easily beat out decliners on both the Nasdaq and NYSE. But while new 52-week highs outnumbered new lows Tuesday on the NYSE, slightly more stocks made new lows on the Nasdaq than new highs.

Top-rated stocks largely acted well, with several breaking out.

Cardtronics (CATM) jumped 8% in big trade, clearing a 25.95 handle buy point in the wake of a strong quarterly earnings report late Monday. TransDigm Group (TDG) rose 4% and flew past a 95.14 buy point from a cup without handle.

Signet Jewelers (SIG) climbed 8% in huge volume, topping a 45.60 handle entry. Late Monday, S&P said Signet will join the S&P MidCap 400 index. Priceline.com (PCLN) surged 9%, closing above an area of resistance around 550.

On the downside, Triumph Group (TGI) slid 2% in fast trade, though it finished near its session high. Before the opening bell, it announced a public offering of 5 million shares.

After hours, Copa Holdings (CPA) reported third-quarter earnings that beat views. The stock, which has been working on a new base, fell 4% in strong volume during the regular session.

U.S. economic news was light Tuesday and mostly overshadowed by the latest euro zone headlines. A small-business optimism index edged up in October.

Sorry...had to take care of some pressing things yesterday...

but I'm back today...