Tuesday, January 29, 2008

Daily Summary....

U.S. Markets

Dow +96.4
Nasdaq +8.15
S&P 500 +8.33

News That Moved the Market

Stocks Higher With Fed Looming. Markets finished the day up once again, as investors are looking forward to tomorrow's Fed announcement. A 25 basis point cut is already priced in, and Fed fund futures also indicate that the market sees a 74% chance the Fed will cut 50 basis points. Durable goods orders also gave a boost to the market, coming in with a 5.2% gain, easily beating economists' predictions of a 1.6% increase. Markets did drop after the Conference Board announced that consumer confidence fell to 87.9 from 90.6 in December, but they were able to recover with a late rally in the afternoon.

Stimulus Plans Goes to Senate. The House approved the $146 billion economic stimulus plan, which is expected to give rebate checks to 111 million Americans. The bill will now go to the Senate, where some members say they will try to alter the current version, putting some uncertainty on when the rebates will actually go out. Though the plan will put more money in American consumers' hands, many are simply looking at the move as more election year politics and that seems hard argue.

VMWare Plunges. VMWare (VMW, -34.0%) fell hard after missing fourth-quarter targets Monday night. The company is down more than 50% from its peak of over $120/share last year. The company's outlook also disappointed.

Bank of America Reaffirms Countrywide Deal. Bank of America (BAC, +1.8%) CEO Kenneth Lewis reassured Countrywide (CFC, +6.0%) investors that BofA had enough capital to purchase Countrywide after the bank's $13 billion sale of preferred stock last week.

Tomorrow Notable Earnings:

Kraft (KFT) Before Open
UPS (UPS) Before Open
Boeing (BA) Before Open
Amazon (AMZN) After Close
Starbucks (SBUX) After Close

Economic Events:

8:15 AM: ADP Employment Report
8:30 AM: GDP (Advance)
10:30 AM: Crude Inventories
2:15 PM: FOMC Announcement

Yahoo Down After Earnings Announcement...

Shares of Yahoo Inc. (YHOO) are down 11% to $18.62 in after-hours trading after the company said its fiscal fourth-quarter profit fell from a year earlier, amid an ongoing reorganization of the Internet company.

The Sunnyvale, Calif., company said its net income for the period ended in December fell to $205.7 million, or 15 cents a share, from $268.7 million, or 19 cents a share a year earlier. Total revenue rose 8% to $1.8 billion. Net sales, which exclude payments Yahoo makes to other Websites to acquire traffic, rose to $1.4 billion from $1.2 billion.

On average, analysts polled by Thomson Financial had estimated Yahoo would report earnings for the fourth quarter of 11 cents a share on net sales of $1.4 billion.

According to our math...they beat net income estimates by 4 cents and met net revenue estimates. Problem is they also announced that they will lay off 1,000 workers to the tune of $25 Million in the form of a charge....and they lowered guidance for the full year 2008.

Trading Yahoo Ahead of Earnings....

Traders are purchasing February Call Options on Yahoo ahead of their earnings. Activity is heavy on the Feb 20, 22.5 and 25 calls.

The stock, however, is down .44 to $20.33.

Crocs Trying to Break off Lows....

CROX + 1.09 to $30.80

Check out Crocs (CROX). The stock is trying hard to break off of the latest bottom. A move above $31 on high volume would be a breakout.

Rumors that Microsoft is Interested in Purchasing Yahoo...

Interview with Bill Gates on Monday suggests that MSFT is going to go after Google in the Search category. Only way that happens is with a buyout of Yahoo. Yahoo reports today, after the bell......hmmmmm.

Earnings Expected Tomorrow....

AFLAC Inc. (AFL) 4Q .80
Allergan Inc. (AGN) 4Q .57
Alliance Data Sys Corp. (ADS) 4Q .89
Altria Grp Inc. (MO) 4Q .97
Amazon.com Inc. (AMZN) 4Q .51
Baker Hughes Inc. (BHI) 4Q 1.28 BMO
Boeing Co. (BA) 4Q 1.32 7:30AM
Constellation Energy Grp (CEG) 4Q 1.38
Dominion Resources Inc. (D) 4Q .57
Eastman Kodak Co. (EK) 4Q .48 7:00AM
Genlyte Grp Inc. (GLYT) 4Q 1.21
Illinois Tool Works Inc. (ITW) 4Q .85 8:00AM
Kirby Corp. (KEX) 4Q .62 6:00PM
Kraft Foods Inc. (KFT) 4Q .44 7:00AM
MBIA Inc. (MBI) 4Q (2.45) AMC
Merck & Co. Inc. (MRK) 4Q .73
Starbucks Corp. (SBUX) 1Q .28
Wolverine World Wide Inc. (WWW) 4Q 0.430 BMO

Earnings Due Today After the Bell...

Centex Corp. (CTX) Expected to report 3Q earnings of 1.05 a share.

Robert Half Int'l (RHI) Expected to report Q4 earnings of .44 a share.

Yahoo Inc. (YHOO). Expected to report Q4 earnings of $0.11 a share, according to analysts polled by Thomson Financial. This is a decrease of 41.6% over the $0.19 per share earnings reported same time last year.

Fed Meeting Starts....

We won't get announcement on interest rates, though, until tomorrow at 2:15 pm EST.

Nutrisystem Turning Higher....

Nutrisystem (NTRI) is currently up 2.28 to $27.00.

This stock tends to trade in waves. Traders will run it up and then bring it down hard. Why??? Because they can.

Looks like it is getting ready to run. The stock double bottomed at $20 over the last few weeks. A break above $30 would be a clear breakout. Just don't get too greedy. Make some money and get out.

First Solar: Technical Buy...

Check out First Solar (FSLR). Currently up 8 to $185.

The stock is down from a high of $283 made on XMas Eve.

Technically, the stock is breaking hard off the recent bottom in the $170 area on high volume. This looks like a good trade.

Yahoo To Report After the Bell Today...

Yahoo Inc. (YHOO). Expected to report Q4 earnings of $0.11 a share, according to analysts polled by Thomson Financial. This is a decrease of 41.6% over the $0.19 per share earnings reported same time last year.

The stock is currently down .54 to $20.25

Frontier Oil Up on No News....

Frontier Oil (FTO) is up 5 to $37 on no news. The Oil sector is ticking higher this morning but we see no reason for a 15% move on FTO.

There must be something....we'll let you know when we find out.

Google (GOOG) Target Raised...Stock Down...

Analysts raises target to $755 per share... The stock opened + $6. It is now down over $13 a share to $543.

Looks like a big shareholder is trying to lighten up ahead of Thursday's earnings.

Chattem Income Triples...Raises Guidance...

Chattem Inc.'s (CHTT) fiscal fourth-quarter net income tripled to $14.8 million, or 76 cents a share, from $4.91 million, or 26 cents a share, the previous year, due in part to strong performance from its Gold Bond and Icy Hot brands.

Excluding an employee stock option expense, earnings were 81 cents a share, up from 32 cents a share the prior year. On average, analysts polled by Thomson Financial expected earnings of 65 cents a share. Analysts estimates usually exclude items.

The Chattanooga, Tenn., maker of over-the-counter healthcare products, toiletries and dietary supplements said revenue increased 55% to $100.6 million from $65.1 million a year ago. Chattem said it now sees fiscal 2008 earnings of $4 to $4.20 a share, excluding items. Previously, the company projected earnings of $3.90 to $4.10 a share.

The stock is up over 7 dollars to $75 on the news.

Potash (POT) gets 3rd Upgrade in 3 Days....

Since reporting better than expected earnings on Thursday...and raising guidance for 2008, three analysts have raised their ratings on the stock:

BMO Capital Markets raise to Outperform
Wall Street Access raise to Strong Buy
Morgan Stanley raises to Equal Weight

The stock is up 3.25 points this morning to $143. It is up 10% + since Thursday.

Jetblue Airways Beats....

Jetblue Airways beats by $0.03, beats on revs (JBLU) 4.94 : Reports Q4 (Dec) loss of $0.02 per share, $0.03 better than the First Call consensus of ($0.05); revenues rose 16.7% year/year to $739 mln vs the $730.6 mln consensus.

Nice Planes....This stock has been hammered ever since their runway problems. The stock currently sits at $5.00...probably a buy with little downside due to the recent wave of consolidation in the Airline industry.

WalMart Announces Huge Sale....

Just in time for Super Bowl Parties, WalMart is announcing a 10 - 30% off sale on thousands of items, including food and electronics. The company is billing this as their way to help the economy.


Good idea....also should be a good place to spend your upcoming Tax Rebate....don't you think???

Zimmer Holdings (ZMH) Beats Expectations...

Zimmer Holdings 4Q Net Rises 8%
Orthopedics maker says 4Q net income rose to $263.8 million, or $1.12 a share, boosted by the weak dollar. Results top analyst expectations for earnings of $1.04 a share. Revenue rises 15% to $1.07 billion.

Zimmer's stock is up 7 points to $75.25 in premarket trading.

December Durable Goods Orders Up More Than Expected...

Orders for durable goods surge 5.2% to a seasonally adjusted $226.60 billion, after rising 0.5% in November. Economists expected orders to rise 2.1%. Orders for non-defense capital goods excluding aircraft increase 4.4% after falling 0.2% in November, while demand for all durables except transportation rise 2.6%.

Stock futures have surged higher on the news.

Vytorin Prescriptions Down 23%....

Prescriptions for Merck's (MRK) and Schering-Plough's (SGP) embattled cholesterol drug Vytorin drop sharply in two weeks since study raised questions about effectiveness. Companies stand behind drug in reducing bad cholesterol.

Both stocks are down over 20% since the study was first announced....

US Foreclosures Surge....

Foreclosure filings for 2007 soars 75% from a year earlier as homeowners were hit by credit troubles and falling home values, a foreclosure-listing service says. For 2007, there were 2.2 million foreclosure filings, RealtyTrac says.

Don't you just love backwardlooking data??