A significant day for stocks as it looks like we may be moving past the Greek and Euro problems. It was obvious that real money started coming in as the day wore on. There are way too many funds that are underinvested in stocks right now. Those guys cannot afford to miss any yearend rallies...so they MUST put money to work. We need to see a follow thru tomorrow, but I really like the way we traded today.
Dow +208
Nas +57
S&P +23 to 1261
Thursday, November 3, 2011
Groupon IPO starts trading tomorrow...
Online coupon purveyor Groupon (GRPN) is worth more than half the S&P 500 index, including long-running national brands like Whole Foods Market and Dow member Alcoa, according to latest IPO valuation estimation. Traders doubt it belongs in such established company.
The IPO could price $3 above the top of the $16 to $18 range Thursday, according to a CNBC report (link to Kayla’s story), giving it a value of as much as $13 billion, more than the market capitalization of 285 members in the U.S. equity benchmark.
“The current valuations for Groupon are ludicrous,” said Jim Iuorio, managing director for TJM Institutional Services. “The major mistake that the market is making is using Facebook as proxy in helping establish valuations. Groupon has no community aspect to it and therefore users are free to leave and shop for the best deal.”
Maybe these are just the rants of jealous investors cut out of the new issue because this kind of talk has yet to dent demand for the 3-year old daily deals site. All indications are that the roadshow by chief executive Andrew Mason has been well received by investors lucky enough to get their piece.
Yet many traders point out that this could be folks eager to flip the stock quickly over the short term on the initial euphoria that has been a trademark of some of the recent tech and social media IPOs.
For example, online business networking site LinkedIn (LNKD) doubled on the first day of trading in May, but its shares are off about 10 percent since then. Music site Pandora jumped 9 percent during its first day of trading in June, but now trades below its $16 IPO price.
“Caveat emptor if you are stupid enough to hold this one for more than a flip,” said Jon Najarian, co-founder of TradeMonster.com.
Questions about its accounting practices, as well as low barriers to entry for competitors, have also given investors with a long-term outlook pause.
Still, for the bears, there’s a catch. Groupon is selling very few shares to the public. So few, that the offering will represent less than five percent of the float. This makes the shares difficult to borrow in order to bet against the company through a short position.
“It seems like an easy short at the proposed market cap, however there are two very important issues that can not be overlooked: the small float makes it very dangerous to short and Google tried to buy them recently,” said Michael Murphy of Rosecliff Capital. “As a rule, Google does not make stupid or over-priced acquisitions.”
The IPO could price $3 above the top of the $16 to $18 range Thursday, according to a CNBC report (link to Kayla’s story), giving it a value of as much as $13 billion, more than the market capitalization of 285 members in the U.S. equity benchmark.
“The current valuations for Groupon are ludicrous,” said Jim Iuorio, managing director for TJM Institutional Services. “The major mistake that the market is making is using Facebook as proxy in helping establish valuations. Groupon has no community aspect to it and therefore users are free to leave and shop for the best deal.”
Maybe these are just the rants of jealous investors cut out of the new issue because this kind of talk has yet to dent demand for the 3-year old daily deals site. All indications are that the roadshow by chief executive Andrew Mason has been well received by investors lucky enough to get their piece.
Yet many traders point out that this could be folks eager to flip the stock quickly over the short term on the initial euphoria that has been a trademark of some of the recent tech and social media IPOs.
For example, online business networking site LinkedIn (LNKD) doubled on the first day of trading in May, but its shares are off about 10 percent since then. Music site Pandora jumped 9 percent during its first day of trading in June, but now trades below its $16 IPO price.
“Caveat emptor if you are stupid enough to hold this one for more than a flip,” said Jon Najarian, co-founder of TradeMonster.com.
Questions about its accounting practices, as well as low barriers to entry for competitors, have also given investors with a long-term outlook pause.
Still, for the bears, there’s a catch. Groupon is selling very few shares to the public. So few, that the offering will represent less than five percent of the float. This makes the shares difficult to borrow in order to bet against the company through a short position.
“It seems like an easy short at the proposed market cap, however there are two very important issues that can not be overlooked: the small float makes it very dangerous to short and Google tried to buy them recently,” said Michael Murphy of Rosecliff Capital. “As a rule, Google does not make stupid or over-priced acquisitions.”
At 3 pm....
Stocks are holding their gains and banks are continuing to work higher.
Dow +192
Nas +50
S&P +20 to 1258
Dow +192
Nas +50
S&P +20 to 1258
Airlines try to raise prices again...
US Airways (LCC) and Delta Air Lines (DAL) are raising fares on many U.S. flights by up to $10 per round trip, in the latest attempt by airlines to boost revenue during a normally slow time of year for travel. Prices were raised successfully two weeks ago, but another fare hike last week fizzled and was eventually canceled.
Stocks reporting before the bell tomorrow...
Ultra Petroleum (UPL)
Warner Chilcott (WCRX)
Washington Post (WPO)
Treehouse Foods (THS)
Warner Chilcott (WCRX)
Washington Post (WPO)
Treehouse Foods (THS)
Stocks reporting after the close today...
Skyworks (SWKS)
Allscripts (MDRX)
Chesapeake Energy (CHK)
Hansen Natural (HANS)
First Solar (FSLR)
Bebe Stores (BEBE)
Starbucks (SBUX)
Linked In (LNKD)
Genworth (GNW)
Allscripts (MDRX)
Chesapeake Energy (CHK)
Hansen Natural (HANS)
First Solar (FSLR)
Bebe Stores (BEBE)
Starbucks (SBUX)
Linked In (LNKD)
Genworth (GNW)
Stocks are still climbing....
Stocks are looking strong here, as it looks like we are shaking off the Greek news and our market's ties to every move of the Euro.
Dow +162
Nas +41
S&P +17 to 1254
Banks are starting to strengthen which is a very good sign. On Friday, the S&P got as high as 1284 before selling off on Monday and Tuesday. A move back above that level would represent a new breakout and would surely put us back in rally mode.
Dow +162
Nas +41
S&P +17 to 1254
Banks are starting to strengthen which is a very good sign. On Friday, the S&P got as high as 1284 before selling off on Monday and Tuesday. A move back above that level would represent a new breakout and would surely put us back in rally mode.
Allscripts to report after the close today...
Allscripts Healthcare Solutions (MDRX) is set to release Q3 results after the close today, and investors are no doubt hoping it can break the bad streak for medical-software stocks this earnings season. Analysts polled by Thomson Reuters expect Allscripts (MDRX) to report profit of 22 cents a share, up 16% from a year ago. Sales are forecast to rise 51% to $364.9 million.
Those are good numbers, but industry watchers have reason to be nervous after Allscripts' rivals' reports. Quality Systems (QSII) and Computer Programs & Systems (CPSI) both missed estimates last week and were punished harshly on the stock market. Athenahealth (ATHN) and Cerner (CERN) met expectations and guided in-line, but the stocks have still ticked downward.
The group might have been suffering from high expectations. It's been a stock-market darling for the last couple of years, ever since President Obama's health care package promised serious money for physicians to upgrade to electronic health records and other forms of computerization.
Here is the long term chart going back to 2004:
Those are good numbers, but industry watchers have reason to be nervous after Allscripts' rivals' reports. Quality Systems (QSII) and Computer Programs & Systems (CPSI) both missed estimates last week and were punished harshly on the stock market. Athenahealth (ATHN) and Cerner (CERN) met expectations and guided in-line, but the stocks have still ticked downward.
The group might have been suffering from high expectations. It's been a stock-market darling for the last couple of years, ever since President Obama's health care package promised serious money for physicians to upgrade to electronic health records and other forms of computerization.
Here is the long term chart going back to 2004:
Icahn increases stake in Navistar...
Carl Icahn just bought another piece of Navistar (NAV) stock, boosting his stake in the commercial trucking company to 9.99%, according to an SEC filing. Icahn recently made large investments in both Navistar and Oshkosh (OSK), another trucking company, leading to speculation that he wants to combine the two.
Today's Upgrades and Downgrades...
These are some of Thursday’s top analyst upgrades, downgrades, and initiations seen from Wall Street research calls.
Annaly Capital Management, Inc. (NYSE: NLY) Raised to Outperform at Wells Fargo.
Boston Scientific Corp. (NYSE: BSX) Started as Outperform at Credit Suisse.
Career Education Corp. (NASDAQ: CECO) Cut to Underperform at BofA/ML.
Clorox Corp. (NYSE: CLX) Cut to Underperform at BofA/ML.
CNH Global N.V. (NYSE: CNH) named as Value stock of the day at Zacks.
Dendreon Corporation (NASDAQ: DNDN) Cut to Neutral at Goldman Sachs.
Freeport-McMoRan Copper & Gold Inc. (NYSE: FCX) Started as Overweight at Barclays.
Hexcel Corporation (NYSE: HXL) Cut to Neutral at BofA/ML.
Hospira Inc. (NYSE: HSP) cut to Underperform ar Bear of the Day at Zacks.
Medtronic Inc. (NYSE: MDT) Started as Outperform at Credit Suisse.
Rockwell Collins Inc. (NYSE: COL) Cut to Underperform at BofA/ML.
Sierra Wireless Inc. (NASDAQ: SWIR) downgraded at Raymond James and Morgan Keegan.
St. Jude Medical (NYSE: STJ) Started as Neutral at Credit Suisse.
Sun Life Financial Inc. (NYSE: SLF) Cut to Underperform at Credit Suisse.
Teva Pharmaceutical Industries Limited (NASDAQ: TEVA) Raised to Overweight at Morgan Stanley.
Tidewater Inc. (NYSE: TDW) Cut to Hold at Argus.
Wyndam Worldwide (NYSE: WYN) named Bull of the Day at Zacks.
Annaly Capital Management, Inc. (NYSE: NLY) Raised to Outperform at Wells Fargo.
Boston Scientific Corp. (NYSE: BSX) Started as Outperform at Credit Suisse.
Career Education Corp. (NASDAQ: CECO) Cut to Underperform at BofA/ML.
Clorox Corp. (NYSE: CLX) Cut to Underperform at BofA/ML.
CNH Global N.V. (NYSE: CNH) named as Value stock of the day at Zacks.
Dendreon Corporation (NASDAQ: DNDN) Cut to Neutral at Goldman Sachs.
Freeport-McMoRan Copper & Gold Inc. (NYSE: FCX) Started as Overweight at Barclays.
Hexcel Corporation (NYSE: HXL) Cut to Neutral at BofA/ML.
Hospira Inc. (NYSE: HSP) cut to Underperform ar Bear of the Day at Zacks.
Medtronic Inc. (NYSE: MDT) Started as Outperform at Credit Suisse.
Rockwell Collins Inc. (NYSE: COL) Cut to Underperform at BofA/ML.
Sierra Wireless Inc. (NASDAQ: SWIR) downgraded at Raymond James and Morgan Keegan.
St. Jude Medical (NYSE: STJ) Started as Neutral at Credit Suisse.
Sun Life Financial Inc. (NYSE: SLF) Cut to Underperform at Credit Suisse.
Teva Pharmaceutical Industries Limited (NASDAQ: TEVA) Raised to Overweight at Morgan Stanley.
Tidewater Inc. (NYSE: TDW) Cut to Hold at Argus.
Wyndam Worldwide (NYSE: WYN) named Bull of the Day at Zacks.
At 11:00 am...
Stocks are behaving nicely and appear to have digested the lastest in the Greek saga.
Dow +84
Nas +16
S&P +6 to 1244
Leaders:
Cummins Inc. (CMI) +3.18 to 101.95
IBM +2.37 to 186.30
Mercado Libre (MELI) +21.46 to 84.74
Strayer (STRA) +9.17 to 87.83
SXC Health (SXCI) +2.22 to 46.71
Netflix (NFLX) +1.80 to 85.20
Banks and Oils are weak...Gold and Silver are up.
Dow +84
Nas +16
S&P +6 to 1244
Leaders:
Cummins Inc. (CMI) +3.18 to 101.95
IBM +2.37 to 186.30
Mercado Libre (MELI) +21.46 to 84.74
Strayer (STRA) +9.17 to 87.83
SXC Health (SXCI) +2.22 to 46.71
Netflix (NFLX) +1.80 to 85.20
Banks and Oils are weak...Gold and Silver are up.
Netflix looks to be holding up here....
It sure sounds like all the bad news is out on Netflix and may be a time to start adding shares. Volume is slowing down meaning sellers have possibly been exhausted.
NFLX is currently up 0.80 to 84.17
Here is the daily chart:
NFLX is currently up 0.80 to 84.17
Here is the daily chart:
Whole Foods misses on Revenues...
Whole Foods Market (WFM): Q4 beats on a per share basis but misses on revenue. Earnings rose 12% Y/Y, with same-store sales up 8.4%. Separately, the company announces a 40% increase to its dividend, amounting to $0.56 per share, and a $200M stock buyback.
WFM stock is holding up OK, currently down 2.20 to 68.41...it could be much worse, but this is a stock funds want to own.
WFM stock is holding up OK, currently down 2.20 to 68.41...it could be much worse, but this is a stock funds want to own.
Aeropostle preannounces good earnings...
Aeropostale (ARO) rises 20% after preannouncing FQ3 revenue of $596.5M (-1% Y/Y) and EPS of $0.27-$0.28, well above Street estimates of $574.1M and $0.12. Same-store sales are expected to decline 9%, slightly better than FQ2's 10% drop. The apparel retailer reports earnings on Nov. 30.
ARO is up 2.95 to 17.97 this morning.
ARO is up 2.95 to 17.97 this morning.
Qualcomm jumps after lifting forecast...
Qualcomm Inc. (QCOM). The chipmaker forecast double-digit sales growth this fiscal year, banking on continued strong demand for smartphones and mobile devices as its quarterly results beat Wall Street estimates. For the current quarter, it expects sales to jump 30 percent to 42 percent. It posted fourth quarter net earnings of $1.06 billion, or 0.62 cents per share, compared with $865 million, or 53 cents per share, in the year-ago quarter.
QCOM is currently up 3.70 to 55.87
QCOM is currently up 3.70 to 55.87
Dendreon heads lower...
Dendreon Corp. (DNDN). The biotechnology company forecast only modest sales growth for its Provenge prostate cancer vaccine for the next several quarters. It posted a net loss of $147.1 million, or $1.00 per share, compared with a loss of $79.3 million, or 56 cents per share, a year earlier.
DNDN is down 3.63 to 6.83 (34%)
DNDN is down 3.63 to 6.83 (34%)
CVS beats expectations...
CVS Caremark Corp. (CVS). The company posted a higher quarterly profit as business improved at its pharmacy benefits management unit, and said this year's profit should come in toward the higher end of its prior forecast. Net income rose to $868 million, or 65 cents per share, from $809 million, or 59 cents per share, a year earlier. It now expects to post adjusted earnings from continuing operations of $2.77 to $2.81 per share this year.
CVS is currently up 1.31 to 37.08
CVS is currently up 1.31 to 37.08
OK...Back in the office...
Stocks are currently mixed as traders are trying to determine the impact of the Greek referendum proposal.
Dow +52
Nas +2
S&P +3
More in a second...
Dow +52
Nas +2
S&P +3
More in a second...
Subscribe to:
Posts (Atom)