Wednesday, October 19, 2011

Stocks take a day off...

Well...no rally in the final 30 minutes this time.

Dow -72
Nas -53
S&P -15 to 1209

Volume was light for most of the day.  We have October Options expiration of Friday.  It is not uncommon to get some selling on the Wednesday before options expiration as traders sell this months positions and roll into next month's.

Banks, commodities and oils were the main drags on the market today.

Stocks weaken as the day wears on...

After holding up well this morning, stocks have turned red this afternoon.  Big reversals have occured in the banks and oils, dragging the rest of stocks with them.

At 3:30 pm:

Dow -88
Nas -51
S&P -15 to 1210

Gold and silver are selling off as well.

Noon update...

Stocks are mixed, but holding up well at lunchtime. 

Dow +26
Nas -15
S&P +1

Banks are starting to slide, Oils are mixed, commodities getting hit hard.

Losers:

Apple (AAPL) -16.83 to 405.39
Amazon (AMZN) -6.77 to 237.17
CF Industries (CF) -2.71 to 145.90
Cliffs Natural Resources (CLF) - 2.28 to 58.96

Gainers:

Intuitive Surgical (ISRG) +42.14 to 424.90
Sears (SHLD) +1.38 to 75.82
Whole Foods (WFM) +2.46 to 71.69
Ulta Cosmetics (ULTA) +2.00 to 70.82
Apollo Group (APOL) +4.35 to 47.68

Best Buy hurt by falling TV prices...

Prices of flat-screen TVs are in free-fall and represent a "significant risk" to Q3 gross margins at Best Buy (BBY), prompting Citigroup analyst Kate McShane to repeat her Sell rating on the shares. "Near-term pressures including a weak product cycle and increasingly price conscious consumers will continue to weigh on the stock in the near term.”

No kidding...these TVs are really getting cheap.

Citigroup and Smith Barney face fraud charges...

The SEC will vote today on a proposed agreement with Citigroup (C +2.2%) to pay more than $200M to settle civil fraud charges related to its sale of a mortgage bond deal, WSJ reports. The SEC has been investigating whether Citigroup misled investors in the deal, a CDO created from other CDOs backed by subprime mortgages.

Citigroup owns the Smith Barney Brokerage firm.

DC is wealthiest Metro area...

Federal employees whose compensation averages $126,000 and a heavy concentration of lawyers helps Washington edge out San Jose as the wealthiest U.S. metro area. The typical D.C.-area household earned $84,523 in 2010, vs. the national average $50,046. “There’s a gap that’s isolating Washington from the reality of the rest of the country... They just get more and more out of touch."

Yep - nothing like big government.

Whole Foods jumps on upgrade...

Whole Foods Market (WFM) jumps higher after catching an upgrade to Buy from Jefferies analyst Scott Mushkin on higher earnings expectations. He also raises his price target on shares to $90 from $68 - repping 24% upside potential.

WFM is one of my favorites.  It is currently up 3.54 to 72.77

Stocks looking good...

Considering that Apple is down 20 points, this market is holding up extremely well.

Dow +42
Nas -8 (primarily due to Apple)
S&P +4 to 1229


Banks are in full rally mode after Morgan Stanley earnings...Oils are improving as well.

Gold and Silver are down slightly, but seem to have a great deal of resilience in here.

Today's Upgrades and Downgrades...

These are some of the top analyst upgrades, downgrades, and initiations seen from Wall Street research calls this Wednesday morning.


Alcatel-Lucent SA (NYSE: ALU) Cut to Underperform at Jefferies.

Anadarko Petroleum Corporation (NYSE: APC) Started as Overweight at Morgan Stanley.

Intel Corporation (NASDAQ: INTC) Raised target to $30 from $28 at Credit Suisse; Reiterated Hold at Canaccord.

Juniper Networks, Inc. (NYSE: JNPR) Cut to Market Perform at Wells Fargo.

LinkedIn Corporation (NYSE: LNKD) Started as Neutral at Lazard.

NRG Energy, Inc. (NYSE: NRG) named Bear of the Day at Zacks.

Nucor Corporation (NYSE: NUE) Started as Outperform at Wells Fargo.

Steel Dynamics Inc. (NASDAQ: STLD) Started as Market Perform at Wells Fargo.

Steven Madden, Ltd. (NASDAQ: SHOO) Started as Buy at Citigroup.

United States Steel Corporation (NYSE: X) Started as Market Perform at Wells Fargo.

Wal-Mart Stores, Inc. (NYSE: WMT) named Growth & Income stock of the day at Zacks.

Morgan Stanley beats estimates...

Morgan Stanley (MS). The bank swung to a $2.15 billion profit in the third quarter, helped by a large accounting gain, even as core revenue in trading, banking and wealth management operations fell. It earned $1.15 per common share, compared with a loss of 7 cents per share in the year-ago quarter.


MS had fallen to 11.58 three weeks ago on rumors that they had too much exposure to the falling Euro.  I guess that was a great opportunity to buy.  The stock is trading at around $17 premarket.

ISRG blows away estimates...

Intuitive Surgical Inc. (ISRG). The company reported a much higher-than-expected third-quarter profit on increased demand for its da Vinci surgical robots and a rise in procedures using the expensive systems. It posted a net profit of $122 million, or $3.05 per share and revenue for the quarter rose 30 percent to $447 million. July-September net income climbed to $46.3 million, or 41 cents a share, from $41 million, or 35 cents a share a year ago.


ISRG is up 25 to 408 premarket...

Intel raises forecast...

Intel Corp. (INTC). The company forecast quarterly revenue above Wall Street's expectations, defying concerns that tablets and a shaky economy are eating into demand for personal computers. Intel said revenue in the current quarter would be $14.7 billion, plus or minus $500 million. Intel said non-GAAP revenue in the third quarter was $14.3 billion.

Here is Intel's long term chart.  Note it is at a key resistance level...a break above 24 would be significant:

CSX meets expectations...

CSX Corp. (CSX). The railroad operator reported a higher quarterly profit in line with forecasts, and said volume was driven up by metals for auto-and energy sector products as well as forest products. Third-quarter net profit of $464 million, or 43 cents per share and revenue rose 11 percent to $2.96 billion.


You have to pay attention to what the transports say, as they give you good insight as to where our economic strengths are...

Cree hurt by increasing competition...

Cree Inc. (CREE). The LED maker reported a steep decline in first-quarter profit that missed Wall Street's expectations as stiff competition hurt pricing and kept inventories high and also forecast a tepid second quarter. Profit for the quarter fell by 78 percent to $12.8 million, or 11 cents per share, from $58 million, or 53 cents per share, in the year-ago period.

CREE is down 1.25 to 26.45 premarket.

Apple miss due to customers waiting for newest version...

Apple Inc. (AAPL). The company stunned Wall Street by reporting results that missed expectations for the first time in years, blaming rumors of the new iPhone for hurting demand in the September quarter. Net profit was $6.62 billion, or $7.05 a share.  Apparently, customers held off buying iPhones until the October launch of the latest version.

Stocks to watch today...

Several high profile earnings reports are out this morning, including Dow components Travelers (TRV) and and United Technologies (UTX) and Wall Street giant Morgan Stanley (MS).

We'll also get the latest numbers from Abbott Labs (ABT), Bank of New York Mellon (BK), BlackRock (BLK), PNC (PNC), and Freeport-McMoRan (FCX), among others.

American Express (AXP), eBay (EBAY), E*Trade (ETFC), Xilinx (XLNX), Wynn Resorts (WYNN), and Western Digital (WDC) are among the companies releasing quarterly numbers after today's closing bell.

Apple (AAPL) clearly leads our list of stocks to watch after posting its first quarterly earnings miss since 2004. Apple posted fiscal fourth quarter earnings of $7.05/share, 34 cents below estimates, with revenue also falling short.

Intel (INTC) shares jumped after hours, as the company posted record third quarter profits and gave an upbeat outlook for the fourth quarter.

Yahoo (YHOO) saw third quarter earnings fall 26%, but the stock rose after hours as Yahoo beat the Street's lowered expectations.

Also seeing bullish after-hours activity: Intuitive Surgical (ISRG), as its sales of robotic surgical equipment soared.

We'll also watch shares of JetBlue (JBLU), as chief financial officer Ed Barnes resigns.

Also on the watch list today: Dow component DuPont (DD) and Monsanto (MON), as DuPont sues Monsanto for alleged patent infringement regarding a process that helps genetically modified corn seeds germinate.

One stock we can't yet watch - but may be able to soon - is Groupon. Multiple reports say the daily deal company will launch its IPO roadshow next week, with an initial public offering likely to value the company at $11 - $12 billion.

Good Morning....

On Tuesday, stocks shook off modest early losses and closed with solid gains.  The S&P 500 added 2%, while the Nasdaq rose 1.6%.  Volume increased across the board from Monday's level, but remained below average.

The major indexes picked themselves off their session lows about 10 a.m. ET as an index of homebuilder sentiment topped expectations, though it still signaled pessimism.

Stocks added to their gains in the late afternoon on a report by the U.K.'s Guardian newspaper that France and Germany had agreed to boost the euro zone rescue fund.

However, a Dow Jones report after the market's close raised questions about the Guardian's story.

During the regular session, the main indexes tested key technical levels and passed, at least for now.

The S&P 500 briefly fell below 1200, but recovered.