Monday, September 12, 2011

As I thought might happen....

Stocks stage a late rally to close higher on the day. 

Dow +69 to 11060
Nas +27 to 2495
S&P +8 to 1162

Key was that S&P held up at 1140 support.  Banks and Oils turned positive in the last hour to help the averages move higher. 

It appears to me that the market is exhausted to the downside.  Today, we didn't get any good news, but you could just see that the market did not want to sell off.  Gold sold off $40 to $1819 an ounce.

Tomorrow will be a very important session.  A follow thru to the upside would be very positive.

Student Loan defaults rise...

Student loan default rates are on the rise - from 7% to 8.8% - with the sharpest increase coming from the troubled for-profit sector, where the rate has jumped to 15% from 11.6%. The government has promised to crack down - banning schools from taking students with federal loans if they don't meet certain criteria.

At 3:00 pm....

Stocks are still lower, as it looks like program selling is kicking in every time we start to rally.

Dow -109
Nas -14
S&P -12 to 1141

There are quite a few stocks that have been moving higher, as my screen is about 1/3 green.

This could be an interesting last hour.

Similar chart for Southwest Airlines (LUV)....

Check out this chart....

US Airways (LCC).  The company recently reported that airline bookings had dropped 1 %.

Stamps.com breaking out to new highs...

Stamps.com (STMP) provides internet-based postage solutions and has been in an uptrend since it announced earnings at the end of July. The company upped guidance for 2011 to GAAP net income of $.87-$1.07/share and revenue of $90 to $100 million. The company's balance sheet is strong with no debt and a current ratio of 3.23.

STMP could benefit in the long-term from any USPS cuts in local offices or hours.

Warren Buffett's latest buys...

The following is a list of major portfolio buys by Warren Buffett for the last quarter, according to the latest 13F filing of Berkshire Hathway Inc. (BRK.A)

Dollar General (DG)
Mastercard (MA)
Wells Fargo (WF)
Kraft Foods (KFT)
Verisk Analytics (VRSK)

Verisk Analytics, Inc. is a leading provider of risk assessment and decision analytics, primarily serving the property/casualty insurance, mortgage lending, and healthcare markets. Verisk's EPS forecast for the current year is $1.64 and next year is $1.88. According to consensus estimates, its top line is expected to grow 14.90% in the current year and 9.90% next year.

European stocks sell off again...

Europe closes the books on another horrid day. Stoxx 50 -4%, Germany -2.3%, France -4.1%, Italy -3.9%, Spain -3.3%. The U.K. outperforms, -1.7%. With panicky declines being the new normal in Europe, U.S. shares have (thus far) mostly shrugged it off.

Jeffries likes Express Scripts...

Express Scripts (ESRX) is up slightly after Jeffries analyst calls it "the most mis-priced stock in our coverage universe." Jeffries notes Express Scripts' pending merger with Medco Health (MHS) remains on track, and that synergies are expected to be worth around $1B. The firm also isn't concerned about fears of lost business with Walgreen (WAG).

ESRX is up 0.33 to $44.00

Obama speaking about jobs bill...

...and the market sells off.

Dow -119
Nas -15
S&P -12 to 1142

Key level of support to watch for the S&P here is 1140

Congress returns from vacation...

Hope they enjoyed themselves.

Today's Upgrades and Downgrades...

These are some of this Monday’s top analyst upgrades, downgrades, and initiations seen having an impact from Wall Street research calls.

Agrium Inc. (NYSE: AGU) Raised to Neutral at Goldman Sachs.
Clean Harbors, Inc. (NYSE: CLH) Raised to Overweight at JPMorgan.
ConocoPhillips (NYSE: COP) maintained Buy but cut target to $85 at Argus.
Dendreon Corporation (NASDAQ: DNDN) Cut to Neutral at Roth.
FedEx Corporation (NYSE: FDX) Cut to Neutral at BofA/ML.
Intrepid Potash, Inc. (NYSE: IPI) Cut to Sell at Goldman Sachs.
KBR, Inc. (NYSE: KBR) listed as the value stock of the day at Zacks.
McDermott International (NYSE: MDR) called Bear of the Day at Zacks.
NetSuite Inc. (NYSE: N) Started as Outperform at Credit Suisse.
NII Holdings Inc. (NASDAQ: NIHD) Cut to Equal-Weight at Morgan Stanley.
Oracle Corporation (NASDAQ: ORCL) Raised to Conviction Buy List at Goldman Sachs.
The Mosaic Co. (NYSE: MOS) Raised to Buy at Goldman Sachs.
SuccessFactors, Inc. (NASDAQ: SFSF) Removed from U.S. Focus List at Credit Suisse.
Texas Instruments Inc. (NYSE: TXN) Maintained Buy but target to $35 at Argus.
Valero Energy Corporation (NYSE: VLO) named Bull of the Day at Zacks.
VimpelCom Ltd. (NYSE: VIP) Raised to Overweight at HSBC.
Zions Bancorp. (NASDAQ: ZION) Cut to Underperform at Stern Agee; Maintained Outperform at Credit Suisse.

He must have another book to sell...

Author Harry Dent has gone from predicting Dow 40K to Dow 3K. Dent, who once predicted equities would see a massive bull market during the 2000s, sees a combination of declining Baby Boomer spending and post-bubble deleveraging producing deflation, and having a devastating effect on asset prices.

This makes me want to buy stocks...

Wynn up on Macau deal...

Shares of Wynn (WYNN +3.2%) post a gain after its earlier announcement it grabbed a $193M Macau deal away from rivals. A Deutsche note to clients says the contract with the Macau government will allow the casino operator to open a new casino in 2015 (at the earliest), but cautions against "downside risks" the firm still faces.

15 minutes in...

Dow -109
Nas -12
S&P -9 to 1144

While the averages are lower, Breadth on my screen is improving.

Look for some buying in here...Today has a chance to be a nice reversal day.

Gold is selling off.

Greek default already built in???

I think it is. Today's lower opening may represent a good opportunity for an entrypoint, if you are looking for such. I mean, how many days are we going to sell off because of possible Greek default???

Broadcom to buy NetLogic...

Broadcom (BRCM) agrees to buy NetLogic Microsystems (NETL) for $3.7B in a definitive merger agreement expected to close in the first half of 2012. The firm calls the deal a "strategic fit" that should deliver financial results.

Rivals in the space potentially seeing interest: LSI, CAVM, MRVL, VTSS, FSL, PMCS, AMCC.

Wellpoint to use IBM to diagnose treatments...

WellPoint Inc. (WLP). The health insurer and computer giant IBM (IBM) agreed to commercially use IBM's Watson technology that could help physicians identify best treatment options.

Interdigital gets a lift from Bloomberg article...

Shares of wireless patent maven InterDigital (IDCC) are up $2 premarket after a Bloomberg article released late Friday described Intel (INTC), Taiwan’s HTC and others as being interested in acquiring the company’s intellectual property, citing multiple anonymous sources.

Intel, HTC and Samsung Electronics (SSNLF) and Ericsson (ERIC) are said to be reviewing InterDigital confidential documents to judge the assets, the sources say, and there may be some collaborative bidding, the authors write.

This is not new news....this has been ongoing for a few weeks.

Amazon looking to compete with Netflix...

Amazon.com Inc. (AMZN). The company is in talks with book publishers about launching a media library service similar to Netflix Inc (NFLX) for tablets and other digital books, the WSJ reported on Sunday. Amazon is also expected to release a tablet to rival Apple Inc's (AAPL) iPad in coming weeks, the Journal reported.

Futures lower...

The weekend was apparently not the pause that refreshes for Wall Street: U.S. stock index futures are pointing to a sharply lower open, following Friday's more than 300 point loss for the Dow.


Stocks have fallen in five of the past six sessions, and fresh worries about a Greek debt default are weighing heavily on global investors sentiment this morning.