REIT's selling off...

Not sure why, but REITs are selling off across the board of late.  Up until two weeks ago, this was one of the strongest groups.  Here are just a few:

Simon Property Group (SPG) -3.21 to 107.58
Vornado Realty (VNO) -2.62 to 69.43
Avalon Bay (AVB) -5.32 to 11.67

Here are the charts:

At 11:00 am...

Stocks are broadly higher, only a few of the banks are selling down.

Dow +75
Nas +30
S&P +9 to 1133

This is setting up for another crazy afternoon.

RIMM up on takeout rumors...

Research In Motion (RIMM) is up over 10% this morning on continued M&A speculation after an article suggests Vodafone (VOD) may be interested in the company.

The stock is currently up 3.00 to $24.00

Bristol-Myers hitting new highs...

Bristol Myers continues to hit new highs this morning...and in this market, that is an amazing feat.

The stock is currently up 0.23 to a new 52-week high of 32.35

Bristol-Myers (BMY) is close to completing a groundbreaking treatment for Hepatitis C that could be launched by 2015 and produce as much as $2.9B in global sales five years later, according to a Citi analyst. Hepatitis C is the primary cause of liver transplants in the U.S. and is expected to become a larger public health issue as baby boomers age.

How's this for a chart:

Samsung and Apple battle over patents...

Samsung Electronics said it would file for a sales ban on Apple's new iPhone with courts in France and Italy as the phone infringed its patents, widening its legal battle with Apple.

Separately, the company beefed up its new iPhone with faster chips and better cameras, seeking to set its handset apart from the rising tide of Google (GOOG) Android smartphones.

Oracle cancels Saleforce.com presentation...

Oracle (ORCL) has stoked some controversy in the tech world by canceling a keynote due to be given today by Salesforce.com (CRM) CEO Mark Benioff at Oracle's OpenWorld conference. Oracle could be upset about Benioff's recent dismissal of its cloud offerings as a "false cloud," though some tech pundits seem to be in agreement.

Oracle CEO Larry Ellison and Salesforce CEO Mark Benioff are good friends, which makes this even more interesting.

Costco misses forecasts...

Costco Wholesale Corp. (COST). The company missed forecasts for fourth quarter profit and sales and said it will increase its annual membership fee for a little more than 22 million members. Net income was $478 million, or $1.08 a share, compared with $432 million, or 97 cents a share a year ago.


Costco is down 2.02 to 79.60 this morning.

At 10:00 am....

Stocks are mixed but improving.

Dow +6
Nas -3
S&P +1 to 1124

Commodity stocks leading the market higher.

Ag stocks catching a bid...

Following Monsanto's better than expected release, agriculture stocks are rising this morning.

CF Industries (CF) +3.60 to 127.72
Terra Nitrogen (TNH) +2.50 to 135.50
Monsanto (MON) +1.88 to 64.85
Mosaic (MOS) +1.11 to 50.17

Today's little tidbit....

Yesterday's last-hour reversal marked only the 10th time since 1985 that the S&P 500 was down 1% or more at 3 PM and finished the day with a gain. But such rallies rarely show any follow-through; of the previous nine, only two sparked a positive return the next day, and three during the next week.

Apple continues to sell off...

Apple is selling off further following the new iPhone 4S announcement.

The stock is opening down 8.36 to 364 this morning.  The stock is now down over 40 points in three trading sessions.

Today's Upgrades and Downgrades...

These are some of this Wednesday’s top analyst upgrades, downgrades, and initiations seen having an impact from Wall Street research calls.


Apple Inc. (NASDAQ: AAPL) Reiterated Overweight at JPMorgan; Reiterated Outperform at Credit Suisse; Reiterated Buy at Canaccord Genuity.
Apollo Group Inc. (NASDAQ: APOL) Raised to Outperform with $47 target at Credit Suisse.
Federated Investors, Inc. (NYSE: FII) named Bear of the Day at Zacks.
Google Inc. (NASDAQ: GOOG) Cut to Hold at Stifel Nicolaus.
Hewlett-Packard Co. (NYSE: HPQ) Cut to Underweight at JPMorgan.
Hess Corp. (NYSE: HES) maintained Buy but cut target to $85 at Argus.
The Home Depot, Inc. (NYSE: HD) Cut to Neutral at Goldman Sachs.
Mednax Inc. (NYSE: MD) Started as Neutral with $67 target at Credit Suisse.
Netflix, Inc. (NASDAQ: NFLX) Started as Neutral at Stern Agee.
Oracle Corporation (NASDAQ: ORCL) Reiterated Buy at Canaccord Genuity.
Plains All American LP (NYSE: PAA) named Bull of the Day at Zacks.
PP&L Corporation (NYSE: PPL) reiterated Buy with $31 target at Argus.
Walt Disney Co. (NYSE: DIS) Raised to Buy at Citigroup.
Yandex N. V. (NASDAQ: YNDX) Started as Underperform at Credit Suisse.
Yingli Green Energy Holding Co. Ltd. (NYSE: YGE) Cut to Sell at Citigroup.

Analysts defend the new iPhone...

Though Apple (AAPL) fell yesterday on iPhone 4S disappointment, many analysts are coming to its defense. Needham touts the device's Siri voice assistant software; Piper still sees plenty of pent-up demand; and Jefferies expects the low-cost 3GS to produce high margins, while reiterating its belief China Telecomm will do an iPhone launch in Q1 2012.

I think if they would have just called the new phone the iPhone 5, the stock would be higher now.

American Airlines trying to stay afloat...

Shares of American Airlines (AMR) gain 5.4% premarket, continuing to recover from Monday's steep selloff as negotiations with its pilots union progresses. As for AMR restructuring, insiders agree it looks to be off the table: "They don’t even speak the B-word."

Monsanto beats earnings estimates...

Monsanto (MON): FQ4 EPS of -$0.22 beats by $0.05. Revenue of $2.25B (+15.1% Y/Y) beats by $360M.  Sees FY12 mid-teens earnings growth to a range of $3.34-$3.44 EPS, boosted by above normal business in Latin America for Q1. The Seeds and Genomics segment is expected to kick in single-digit unit growth to derive gross profit in a range of $5.7B-$5.85B for the year.

Monsanto is up over $1 premarket.

JP Morgan downgrades HP...

JPMorgan downgrades Hewlett Packard (HPQ) to Underweight and halves its price target to $20. Firm believes HP's earnings and revenue growth will trail its peers, and is concerned the Autonomy acquisition sets an expensive, unfavorable precedent for future deals.

Good Morning...

U.S. stock index futures are pointing to a lower open on Wall Street this morning, which - based on recent action - may mean absolutely nothing.

The markets were headed for a down session Tuesday when some potentially positive news out of Europe sparked a reversal, helping stocks finish sharply higher.

One piece of European news that won't help the investor mood in the U.S. today is a Moody's downgrade of Italy, with the rating agency cutting Italian government bond ratings by three notches with a negative outlook.

Costco (COST) is a stock to watch this morning, with an early earnings report that shows its fourth quarter profit fell slightly short of forecasts.

Chemical maker Monsanto (MON) is also out with its earnings report this morning, while hotel operator Marriott (MAR) is among those set to release its quarterly numbers after the closing bell.

Bank of New York Mellon (BK) is on our watch list today as well, as New York State accuses the bank of defrauding foreign exchange customers, seeking a recovery of $2 billion.  The bank says the state fundamentally misunderstands the forex market and that it's confident it will prevail in the case.

We'll also watch shares of Yahoo (YHOO), on reports that it's preparing to send out financial information to potential buyers in the coming days.

Hewlett-Packard (HPQ) shares are also worth watching, as new CEO Meg Whitman says she would like to make a decision on whether to sell the company's PC division by the end of October.

And we'll track shares of Yum Brands (YUM), whose shares slipped after hours as U.S. revenue slumped and worldwide restaurant margins edged lower during the company's fiscal third quarter.

Stocks close with a wild rally....

Final Numbers:

Dow +153
Nas +69
S&P +24 to 1123

Banks came back to close higher, Gold and silver trim their losses, Apple regains a large chunk of it's losses, closes down 2.10 to 372.50.

Morgan Stanley (MS) +1.54
Bank of America (BAC) +0.23
Goldman Sachs (GS) +4.50

This market is exhausting me.  Here's a chart of the S&P intraday:

Stocks bounce at "Bear Market" level...

The 52-week high for the S&P is at 1370.  The talk on TV is that "Official Bear Market Territory" is 20% below that high or at 1096.

Coincidentally, that is just about the same level we are bouncing off of today.

I personally think the "Bear Market Territory" thing is stupid...I've been in the market a long time and never heard of this crap until CNBC made it up three years ago. 

However, so far, it is what it is.  Hopefully it holds up.

At 3:45 pm....

Looks like another short squeeze rally, as stocks have now turned positive on the day.  What a wild ride!!


Dow +9
Nas +28
S&P +6


Apparently sparking the turn higher in stocks the last few minutes is the recycling of news that EU financial ministers are looking into recapitalizing the banks. There aren't any details, just a realization from the leaders that not enough has been done to convince markets the banking system can absorb the hits from the debt crisis.


Sounds like more trader BS to me.

Gold and Silver selling off...

After a one week respite from a steep downtrend, the precious metals are off sharply again today. Gold drops back below $1,600/oz. and silver under $30 (platinum down too).

GLD is down 5.39 to 155.55
SLV is down 1.37 to 28.11

At 3 pm:

Stocks resuming the selloff.  Apple is down 17 points after disappointing the techies by not delivering an iPhone 5.  Not sure why it had to be named iPhone 5, but apparently it did.

Banks are still weak but holding above earlier levels. 

Bank of America (BAC) -0.28 to 5.24
Morgan Stanley (MS) -0.40 to 12.07

With one hour left:

Dow -202
Nas -31
S&P -17 to 1081

Gold and Silver are selling off hard as well.

No iPhone 5 disappoints the street...

Apple (AAPL) introduces the iPhone 4S, to "tepid applause" from an audience hoping for an iPhone 5. At first glance, the device looks similar to the iPhone 4. The 4S will feature an A5 CPU (the iPhone 4 uses an A4 chip), and support faster 3G (HSPA) download speeds. Apple is thus far selling off modestly on the news.

Apple is getting hammered down 11 to 363.50

The selloff has pulled the Nasdaq back down as well. 

12:30 pm update...

Stocks have rebounded after Ben Bernanke expresses confidence that what the Fed is doing (as far as monetary policy goes) will work to allow us to avoid a double dip recession.

Dow -70
Nas +33
S&P +2 to 1101

To me, it looks like a short covering rally.  No telling how high traders can bring some of these stocks or whether the rally can hold.  The key level is 1200 on the S&P.

Earlier Morgan Stanley was selling off, down to 11.58.  It has rebounded back to now up 0.05 to 12.52

RIMM may look for a suitor...

Research In Motion (RIMM +4.3%) spikes on rumors the company has hired an investment banker to consider strategic options. Just last week, Carl Icahn was rumored to be buying a chunk of the stock. Color Eric Savitz skeptical: RIM is rapidly losing smartphone market share, and the PlayBook is going nowhere - just why would anyone want to buy it?

Obama doesn't like BAC's debit card fees...

Pres. Obama weighs in on Bank of America's (BAC) new debit card fee: "You don't have some inherent right just to - you know, get a certain amount of profit... You have to treat [customers] fairly and transparently." The banking industry reacts: "As a direct result of the Durbin Amendment, consumers have started paying for financial services they previously enjoyed free of charge."

11:00 am update...

Looks like we are getting a little bit of buying coming in.  Tech stocks have been the main beneficiaries.

Dow -125
Nas +6
S&P -7

The VIX spiked earlier up to 46.88.  It has since come back down to 44.73

Looks like a buying program came in when the VIX jumped above 46.  Not sure whether this will hold though.

iPhone rumors...

Some of the main iPhone rumors heading into Apple's (AAPL) 1 p.m. ET event: a larger display, an 8MP camera, new voice recognition capabilities, a cheaper prepaid model, a deal with Sprint (S), a thinner/lighter design, a larger, touch-sensitive home button, a 64GB model, an A5 CPU, and a CDMA/GSM "world phone."

Apple is currently down 1.89 to 372.70 ahead of the announcement.

Fortune Brands spins off Jim Beam...

It's only day one of trading for Fortune Brands (FO)-spinoff Beam (BEAM), but already the bourbon company lands on Goldman Sachs' Conviction Buy list.

Though the new company says it's in for the long-haul, analysts aren't buying it. Rabobank's Stephen Rannekleiv says BEAM is a "rare opportunity" for companies looking to acquire major brands like Maker's Mark and Canadian Club.

In other words, they may be looking to sell the company.

Today's Upgrades and Downgrades...

Agrium, Inc. (NYSE: AGU) named Bull of the Day at Zacks.

Agnico-Eagle Mines Ltd. (NYSE: AEM) Raised to Outperform at Credit Suisse.
American Express Company (NYSE: AXP) Cut to Hold at Jefferies.
AMR Corporation (NYSE: AMR) Raised to Outperform at Rodman & Renshaw.
BHP Billiton (NYSE: BHP) Raised to Outperform at Credit Suisse.
Capital One Financial Corp. (NYSE: COF) Cut to Hold at Jefferies.
Chipotle Mexican Grill Inc. (NYSE: CMG) Started as Outperform with $370 target at Credit Suisse.
China Petroleum & Chemical Corp. (NYSE: SNP) Started as Neutral at Credit Suisse.
CNOOC Ltd. (NYSE: CEO) Started as Outperform at Credit Suisse.
The Jones Group Inc. (NYSE: JNY) Value stock of the day at Zacks.
LM Ericsson Telephone Co. (NASDAQ: ERIC) Raised to Buy at Citigroup.
PetroChina Co. Ltd. (NYSE: PTR) Started as Neutral at Credit Suisse.
Riverbed Technology, Inc. (NASDAQ: RVBD) Cut to Equal-Weight at Barclays.
SodaStream International Ltd. (NASDAQ: SODA) Raised to Buy at Deutsche Bank.
Sonoco Products Co. (NYSE: SON) Cut to Hold at Argus.
Stillwater Mining Company (NYSE: SWC) Removed from Focus List ar Credit Suisse.
W.R. Berkley Corp. (NYSE: WRB) named Bear of the Day at Zacks.

At 10:00 am...

The market is looking like it is in crash mode. 

Dow -246
Nas -34
S&P -24 to 1076

Banks are falling hard.

Morgan Stanley (MS) -0.84 to 11.60
Goldman Sachs (GS) -5.40 to 89.80
Bank of America (BAC) -0.30 to 5.23

Gold and Silver are starting to fall now.

GLD -1.54 to 159.43
SLV -0.49 to 29.00

China warns of trade war if U.S. bill passes...

An angry China warned Washington on Tuesday that passage of a bill aimed at forcing Beijing to let its currency rise could lead to a trade war between the world's top two economies.

What's happening today...

Apple (AAPL) is a stock to watch today, with a media event set for today at Apple headquarters at 1pm ET.

Apple will introduce the iPhone 5 at the first big event since Steve Jobs stepped down as chief executive officer.

We'll also watch shares of airlines stocks like AMR (AMR), United Continental (UAL), Delta (DAL), and Southwest (LUV) after those shares took a beating yesterday on worries about the effects of a slowing economy on the industry, and the particular financial problems faced by AMR.

We'll also watch shares of Yahoo (YHOO) as speculation continues about a possible sale or breakup.

A New York Times DealBook report this morning says Yahoo may be worth well over its $17.1 billion market cap if it were to be broken off and sold in pieces.

Good Morning...

Looks like stocks are opening lower again this morning on the heels of two straight horrific days of trading.

The S&P is opening below the 1100 support area and banks are still falling.  Bernanke speaks in front of the Joint Economic Committee of congress at 1 pm today, so be prepared for some market movement at that time.

Stocks close at their lows....

Another selloff and triple digit day for the Dow.   Rumors of bankruptcy and bank failures pulled the market lower again:

Dow -258
Nas -79
S&P -32 to 1099

Note: the S&P closed just below that 1100 level that technicians are hoping holds up.  Here are a few of the stocks we have been talking about:

Morgan Stanley (MS) - 1.04 to 12.47
Bank of America (BAC) - 0.59 to 5.53
American Airlines (AMR) -0.98 to 1.98
Eastman Kodak (EK) +0.56 to 1.34
Apple (AAPL) -6.72 to 374.60
Amazon (AMZN) -4.25 to 211.98
Perrigo (PRGO) -6.02 to 91.06
First Solar (FSLR) -5.31 to 57.90

Gold ETF (GLD) +2.90 to 160.96
Silver ETF (SLV) +0.58 to 29.49

Operation Twist in layman's terms...

I'm sure you've heard of the "Operation Twist" that the Fed is trying to influence.  What this means is they are trying to pull long term rates down while trying to push short term rates higher...the idea is to help increase short term savings rates and bring down long term mortgage rates.

Here is a summary of rates on the Treasuries on September 1st and then again on September 30th:

Sept 1:  
1 year: 0.10 %
3 year: 0.31%
5 year: 0.90%
10 year: 2.15%
20 year: 3.10%
30 year: 3.51%

Sept 30:
1 year: 0.13 %
3 year: 0.42%
5 year: 0.96%
10 year: 1.92%
20 year: 2.66%
30 year: 2.90%

Operation Twist: successful so far.

Aetna and CVS set Medicare prescription plan...

Aetna (AET) and CVS will jointly offer a Medicare prescription drug plan, the latest such arrangement between a health insurer and a drugstore chain. The program's cost will be a $26 monthly plan premium, with no deductible, for generic drugs. Humana began a similar partnership with Wal-Mart (WMT) last year, while Coventry (CVH) has deals with Wal-Mart, Target (TGT) and Walgreen (WAG).

Sprint goes all-in on iPhone 5....

The Wall Street Journal reports Sprint (S) will make a staggering $20B bet on the iPhone (AAPL) with a long-term high-volume deal. According to the report, Sprint doesn't expect to break-even until 2014 on the deal and will deeply subsidize each phone sold.

Sprint is down 0.25 to 2.78 today.

At 2:30 pm....

Selling has intensified.  Fears of another banking debachle have stocks reeling across the board.  Technology stocks are getting slammed on fears of a global slowdown.

Dow -183
Nas -61
S&P -22 to 1108

The S&P is getting close to the 1100 area of support.  A break below that would not be good for stocks.

Morgan Stanley continues to drop...

 Morgan Stanley (MS) continues to dive on fears its Euro exposure will make it the next Lehman, analysts continue rushing to its defense. In addition to Wells Fargo, Credit Suisse is out with a report claiming Morgan Stanley, whose Tier 1 capital ratio is more than twice its Q1 '09 level, can absorb any Euro-related losses.

MS is down 0.80 to 12.70.  Here is the chart:

Franklin Fund Group estimates cut...

Franklin Resources (BEN) is lower today after JP Morgan cut the shares to underweight, saying fund performance and returns have shown signs of material weakening. Franklin's flagship fund takes significant currency risk, the firm notes, causing it to significantly underperform its global fixed income fund peers.

Franklin Funds is down 3.54 to 92.10 today.  Here is the weekly chart:

Stocks turn lower again....

We are now at the lows of the day, as there doesn't seem to be a reason to buy stocks here.  Traders are piling on the banks and we have Eastman Kodak and American Airlines both seem to be slipping into the possible bankruptcy category.

Dow -131
Nas -42
S&P -17 to 1111

The VIX is currently at 43.96

Gold and silver both rallying.

Bank of America falls below $6...

Bank of America (BAC) sinks below $6, hitting its lowest price since March 2009. The shares are about 15% lower than the level they were at when Buffett announced his investment in the bank. Like the Goldman and GE deals, the move may pay off for Buffett; for shareholders, not so much.

On a separate note, BAC's website has been down since they made the announcement on Friday that they were going to charge $5 a month for customers to use their debit cards.  The company claims that the site is just running very slow due to the volume of people accessing it. 

Is American Airlines headed for bankruptcy?

Shares of American Airlines (AMR) are now off over 15% after this morning's downgrade on sector peers kickstarts renewed banter about the carrier filing for bankruptcy. 

AMR is down 0.50 to 2.46 today.  Here is the weekly chart:

Noon Update...

The markets are improving as many analysts have come out defending stocks this morning.  Also, there is some optimism that October may be a turnaround month for the markets.

Historically, September is the worst month for stocks.  Even though we have seen several crashes in October, October historically has been the best month for market turnarounds.

Right now:

Dow +8
Nas -8
S&P -1 to 1130

Morgan Stanley says it's time to buy Netflix...

Morgan Stanley sees the recent sharp selloff in Netflix (NFLX) making a "much more compelling" valuation, plus an earnings call that could bring a positive surprise on subscriber guidance. Also, producers of cult TV comedy "Arrested Development" reportedly are in talks with Netflix about distributing some new episodes that would serve as a prelude to a movie.

Netflix is up 4.25 today to 117.52

Stocks rally after ISM Manufacturing number release...

Stocks have turned positive following a better than expected ISM Manufacturing number, released at 10 am.

Dow +48
Nas +12
S&P +5

Wow...the trading is really getting wild.  Huge swings in minutes...

I do think the market is way overdone to the downside, but right now we are being held hostage by the goings on in Europe and Asia.

At 10:00 am...

Stocks broadly lower as the rumor mill is swirling about bank troubles here in the U.S...

Dow -91
Nas -26
S&P -9 to 1122

The Volatility Index (VIX) is climbing again...currently up 0.58 to 43.54

The VIX is a reading of the degree of fear that is in the market.  In the past ten years, the VIX has been normally around 20.  During that period, any time it has spiked above the 40-45 range, that has signaled excessive fear and an oversold market...typically soon leading to a market rally.  We'll keep an eye on the over the next week.

Yahoo partners with ABC News...

Yahoo (YHOO) announces it is forming a partnership with ABC News (DIS). The deal will make ABC News the "premier news provider" for Yahoo News, and result in ABC developing a "new original web series." Yahoo News is the most popular news site in the U.S., with traffic slightly higher than CNN.com (TWX).

Let the 4th Quarter begin....

Not looking good on the open, but there is a tremendous amount of bad news already baked in...

Dolphin Tale leads weekend movies...

“Dolphin Tale” rose to first place in its second weekend of release, taking in $14.2 million at theaters in the U.S. and Canada for Time Warner Inc. (TWX)’s Warner Bros. studio.

The film unseated the 3-D re-release of “The Lion King,” which ranked No. 1 for the prior two weekends, and edged out four new movies, researcher Hollywood.com Box-Office said yesterday in an e-mailed statement. Walt Disney Co. (DIS)’s “The Lion King” dropped to third with $11.1 million.

“Dolphin Tale,” based on a true story, follows a young boy’s effort to persuade scientists to create a prosthetic for a dolphin whose tail has been amputated. The 3-D movie benefited from positive word-of-mouth after opening in third place last weekend, trailing the Brad Pitt baseball drama “Moneyball.”

Casino stocks lower...

Macau casino stocks plunge in Hong Kong - outpacing a  4.4% decline in the Hang Seng - on increasing fears tighter credit will cut off the funds of wealthy gamblers. Close to two-thirds of Macau's gaming revenue is kicked up from "junkets" from the mainland. 


Las Vegas Sands (LVS) and Wynn Resorts (WYNN) are getting slammed premarket...

Fortune Brands to split company and rename itself...

Fortune Brands, Inc. (FO) will separate the company's businesses and spin off the Fortune Brands Home & Security business after the close of business today. Following the spin-off, Fortune Brands will change its name to Beam and operate as a pure-play spirits company.

The liquor part of the business will trade under the symbol "BEAM" and the Home and Security part of the business will trade under the symbol "FBHS".

IMF sees more downside risk...

Downside risks to the global economy have increased "as of late," said IMF Deputy Managing Director Zhu Min this morning, including the possibility that the U.S. economy could further weaken and that the eurozone debt crisis could spin out of policymakers' control. Countries need to begin "significant deficit reduction," some more urgently than others.

Kodak denies it is seeking bankruptcy...

Eastman Kodak Co. (EK). The photography pioneer denied it had a bankruptcy plan, saying it was committed to meeting its obligations and is still looking for ways to "monetize" its patent portfolio.

Arch Coal cuts outloook...

Arch Coal Inc. (ACI). The coal miner has cut its full-year adjusted earnings outlook, hurt by lost production at the company's Mountain Laurel complex in West Virginia. It lowered its 2011 adjusted earnings per share outlook to $1-$1.40 per share, from its prior estimate of $1.75-$2.15.

Good Morning....

U.S. stock index futures pointed to a lower open for the quarter after Greece said it will miss its deficit targets for the year, raising new doubts over a planned second international bailout. Major U.S. stock indexes ended the previous quarter at its worst since 2008, hit by European debt worries, U.S. credit downgrade and slowing global economy.

Markets will watch for any outcome from a Eurogroup meeting that is expected to discuss leveraging of the EFSF bailout fund and structural reforms in Greece. Some respite might come from U.S. auto sales data, expected to show a 9 percent rise from a year ago as Japanese automakers, impacted by the earthquake, will have enough inventory.  Other data on the tap includes ISM index and construction spending.

Weekend Review..."Stars 20 Portfolio"...

Here is our current "Stars 20 Portfolio" stocks, based on strong fundamentals, consumer trends and relative strength (in no particular order):

Alexion Pharmaceuticals (ALXN)
Panera Bread (PNRA)
Dominion Resources (D)
Ulta Salon and Cosmetics (ULTA)
Verizon (VZ)
International Business Machines (IBM)
Perrigo (PRGO)
Visa (V)
McDonald's (MCD)
Cerner (CERN)
Apple (AAPL)
Amazon (AMZN)
Watson Pharmaceutical (WPI)
Wellcare (WCG)
Chipotle (CMG)
Biogen (BIIB)
Nike (NKE)
Under Armour (UA)
Deckers (DECK)
Starbucks (SBUX)
Whole Foods (WFM)

Weekend Review...Stocks hitting new highs....

Here are a few that hit new 52-week highs this week...I'll show the weekly charts on these:

Progress Energy (PGN) - Electric Utilities
Dominion Resources (D) - Electric Utilities
Bristol Myers (BMY) - Drug manufacturers
Treehouse Foods (THS) - packaged foods
ITC Holdings (ITC) - Electric Utilities

I think we have a theme: Electric Utilities

Weekend Review...Stocks hitting new lows...

Combing thru the charts, here are just a few of the stocks that hit new 52-week lows this week.  To get a long term perspective, these are monthly charts:

Home Inns and Hotels (HMIN) - China
Peabody Energy (BTU) - Coal
Mosaic (MOS) - Fertilizers
Agrium (AGU) - Agricultue Chemicals
Lazard (LAZ) - Asset Management
Mercado Libre (MELI) - Argentina internet
Deere (DE) - Farm Equipment
Shanda Interactive (SNDA) - China Internet games
Vulcan Materials (VMC) - Building Materials
Urban Outfitters (URBN) - Retail
Hasbro (HAS) - toys and games
Posco (PKX) - Korean steel (Warren Buffett major shareholder)
Research in Motion (RIMM) - Telecomm hardware
Navistar (NAV) - trucks
EOG Resources (EOG) - natural gas
Freport McMoRan (FCX) - copper and gold
Ultra Petroleum (UPL) - independent Oil and Gas
Tidewater (TDW) - Oil Service
Medco Health (MHS) - Pharmacy benefit management
Travelzoo (TZOO) - Internet leisure
St. Jude Medical (STJ) - medical equipment

Stocks close lower...

Once again, we get more selling in the last hour, as traders obviously did not want to own stocks over the weekend.

Dow -240 to 10913
Nas -65 to 2415
S&P -29 to 1131

Gold was the only group that was positive.  Silver sold off.

Good riddance to Q3.  Hopefully, things will improve in October.

The Fall of a Great American Company...

Eastman Kodak (EK -49.1%) nosedives on a report the company is hiring restructuring lawyers. Two days ago, Fitch cut its rating on Kodak's debt to a level suggesting a default is probable.


Eastman Kodak was in the Dow Jones Industrial Average from 1930 to April 1, 2004.  Obviously Kodak's demise was the development of digital photos and cameras.


Today it is down 0.89 to 0.79 a share.  Check out the long term chart:

At 3:00 pm....

Stocks are still weak, as volume is really drying up.  I just went thru the charts of stocks that are making new lows, and it is ugly.  Basically, anything to do with China - hitting new lows...any of the shipping stocks - hitting new lows...any Agriculture related or steel related stocks - hitting new lows.  I'll try to post some of these charts over the weekend so you can see what they look like.

Right now:

Dow -128
Nas -37
S&P -15 to 1144

The last three days we have seen strong moves in the last hour of trading...let's see what happens today as we reach the end of a somewhat miserable and very volatile 3rd quarter.

SunPower continues to fall...

Shares of SunPower (SPWRA) fall another 7.4% and hit a 52-week low.  The firm appears a leader in the emerging market for high-efficiency cells (I, II), but Morningstar has doubts: "In our view, SunPower uses solar technology that is likely to remain too costly compared to its peers. As a result, we expect the mediocre results of the last couple of years to continue for the foreseeable future."

Universal Display signs deal with Pioneer...

Universal Display (PANL) gains 3.6% after announcing a licensing deal with Pioneer for the use of its OLED technology in lighting products. Like a similar deal announced with Panasonic, the agreement calls for royalties on product sales. Universal Display's shares surged last month on a licensing deal with Samsung for OLED display products.

At 1:00 pm...

Stocks are still lower, but we have at least seen some flashes of buying out there.  However, it looks as if most traders have already left for the weekend...so we may not get much change between now and the close.

Dow -105
Nas -34
S&P -14 to 1145

Gold going higher, Silver heading lower.

SEC investigates rate decision leak...

A SEC report says a large credit rating agency "appeared to allow" a pending rate decision to be tipped off to certain people before the rating change was publicly announced. The statement contained in an annual inspection of ratings agency mandated by Dodd-Frank doesn't name S&P, but follows up an investigation of the ratings agency launched last month.


Of course they are talking about S&P...

Gold and Silver revisited....

Let's check out how gold and silver have been trading.  Below are the charts on the futures of both.

Gold currently sits at $1624 an ounce.  Silver is currently at $30.38.

You can see from the charts that both are taking a breather from the selling.  However, both are close to another breakdown.

Gold has support at $1600 and Silver at around $30.

Stocks weak...

At 10:45 am, stocks are weak again...on very slow trading. 

Dow -105
Nas -35
S&P -16 to 1145

Not liking this downward trend we are in.  First we broke below 1300 on the S&P at the end of July and have never even thought about getting back up there.  We are now stuck in a trading range between 1100 and 1225.  If we break below 1100 on the downside, that would certainly cause another round of panic selling where we would switch to full protection mode.

On the upside, we really need to see a move back above 1250 before we would commit new money.

Here is the S&P 500 chart:

Global Investors Support Buffet Rule....

A Bloomberg poll reveals a majority of global investors support the so-called Buffett Rule proposed by President Obama to tax the income of those earning over $1M a year. Support for the millionaire's tax was highest in Europe, while in the U.S. it only saw 40% approval. "The U.S. does not have a tax rate problem - we have a spending and entitlement problem," noted one investor polled.

As far as I know, Millionaire's ARE paying taxes...in fact they are in the highest tax bracket...currently 35%.

It's Great to be the CEO...

Meg Whitman (HPQ) agrees to take a yearly base salary of $1, but don't cry for her: She gets options to buy 1.9M shares over eight years; her 2012 target bonus is $2.4M. But H-P investors may be crying over Leo Apotheker's $7.2M severance, $3.5M in restricted stock, and a $2.4M "pay for results" bonus for his 11 months as CEO - during which H-P's market value shrunk by $38B.

What???

Boeing Co. (BA). Federal authorities on Thursday charged 37 current or former Boeing employees with selling or trying to buy painkillers and anti-anxiety drugs at a suburban Philadelphia plant that makes military aircraft.

Wow...

Amazon vs. Apple...

Amazon takes center stage again for technology investors. The rock-bottom price of the new Kindle Fire tablet computer is raising questions about Amazon.com’s ability to keep up with demand and the device's effect on the company's already razor-thin profit margins, analysts told Reuters.


My guess is the guys who are questioning the low price of the Kindle Fire are Apple shareholders.

To me, it's just like the price of laptop computers.  You can go buy an Acer computer for under $500.  The same capability computer (memory-wise) from Apple is around $1,200.  Sure, the Apple Mac-book pro looks nicer and has a bunch of extra (unnecessary) features, but c'mon $1200???  At some point, a lackluster economy wiil force consumers (even the cool ones) to tone down their spending habits.

Good Morning...

Stock index futures point to a weaker open for Wall Street on Friday, the final trading day of the third quarter,

The reading for the September University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment survey, out at 9.55am, is seen at 57.8, a repeat of the preliminary September figure.

In company news, McGraw-Hill Companies is in advanced talks to merge its S&P Indices business with CME Group Dow Jones Indexes, a source familiar with the situation told Reuters on Thursday.

Market rebounds in last hour...

The volatility continues...

Dow +143
Nas -11
S&P +9

The Dow was up for most of the day, but Nasdaq stocks showed some serious weakness.  Not sure what happened today, but the market was all over the place...volatility is at unprecedented levels.

Gold and Silver finished higher.  Banks were higher all day.  Everything else was pretty much mixed.  It looks as if the only people in the market are day traders.  That might be true.

Bank of America to charge fee for using Debit Card...

Another day, another new bank fee. This time it's Bank of America (BAC), as most of its customers will soon see a new $5 charge on their statements for any month in which they use a BofA debit card to make a purchase. The bank, like others, is considering new ways to recover debit card revenue that is going away because of new regulations.

This is an act of desperation...check out BAC's chart.  The stock is currently up 0.08 to 6.24, but it sits just above the 6.00 level it was at before Warren Buffett jumped in and tried to show support.  The more I hear from this company the more I believe they really are in trouble.  Don't forget BAC owns Merrill Lynch.

GM to introduce center airbags...

GM plans to introduce cars with center airbags and advanced collision avoidance systems in 2012 and 2013. The growing adoption of such technologies should be a boon for automotive chipmakers such as STM, NXPI, IRF, and ONNN who will provide the analog chips and microcontrollers needed to enable them.

At 2:30 pm....

The Dow still holds on to gains...technology stocks getting hit hard.

Dow +20
Nas -41
S&P -4

Chevron +1.62 and Exxon +1.26 are propping up the Dow.  Banks are also showing some strength.

On the downside:

Amazon (AMZN) -11
Cummins (CMI) -2.32
Apple (AAPL) -7.94
Chipotle (CMG) -13
Priceline (PCLN) -31
Netflix (NFLX) -18
Whole Foods (WFM) -3.50
Wynn (WYNN) -12.87

So you can see...not good.

This is getting ugly....

The Dow is still up 80 points, but underneath we are getting some real carnage.

Too many stocks down to mention...looks to me like some hedge fund is blowing up...I've kind of thought this is what has been behind the drop in Gold of late, but now it is hitting the most popular stocks.

I don't like it...

Law Firms getting line for IFT case...

This is funny. 

After Imperial Trading was halted at $6 a share on Tuesday, then opened yesterday at 2.09...on news that the company was raided by Feds...the parasites are gathering for a feast.

Here are headlines that came out yesterday:

The Law Firm of Levi & Korsinsky, LLP Launches an Investigation into Possible Securities Laws Violations by Imperial Holdings, Inc.

Dyer & Berens LLP (Denver) Announces Its Investigation of Imperial Holdings, Inc.

Kahn Swick & Foti, LLC (New Orleans) Announces Investigation Into Imperial Holdings Inc. Following Federal Raid


Tripp Levy PLLC (New York) Announces Investigation of Imperial Holdings

Bernstein Liebhard LLP (New York) Announces Investigation of Imperial Holdings, Inc.

Faruqi & Faruqi, LLP (New York) Announces Investigation Of Imperial Holdings, Inc.

Rigrodsky & Long, P.A. (Delaware) Announces Investigation of Imperial Holdings, Inc.

Law Offices of Howard G. Smith (Pennsylvania) Announces Investigation of Imperial Holdings, Inc.

Ryan & Maniskas, LLP (Pennsylvania) Announces Investigation of Imperial Holdings, LLC


I'm sure there will be more....It's great that we have so many firms investigating this case.

Sell Rosh Hashanah, buy Yom Kippur...

Harry Schiller, one of the Street's more venerable technicians, called to note that the old trading tip really does have trading history behind it.

Over the last 40 years, Harry says, the average return has been minus 0.6 percent in the S&P 500 in the period between Rosh Hashanah and Yom Kippur. Remember, it's sell Rosh Hashanah, buy Yom Kippur, so that indicates it has worked.

Why does it work? Harry postulates that religious Jews are not supposed to be playing around with their stock portfolios before the high holy days. So the idea is to sell going into the holy days, and buy after.

Rosh Hashanah started last night at sundown, Yom Kippur is October 8.

Wall Street's Red-headed Step Child...

It's still a momentum trade - to the downside. Netflix (NFLX) sinks on no fresh news, but shares broke through $125 yesterday so now people want to dump them. Competition hurts: Amazon’s (AMZN) new Kindle will let users stream movies, and Microsoft (MSFT) will get some pay TV content from Comcast (CMCSA) and Verizon (VZ) streamed to its Xbox Live.

NFLX is currently down another 14.04 to 113.10 today.

DOJ investigates Chinese companies...

The U.S. Department of Justice has launched an investigation into possible accounting fraud at Chinese companies listed on U.S. stock exchanges. The involvement of the DoJ adds investigative firepower to the SEC and the FBI, which have already been probing Chinese companies for over a year.


Really??  I can't imagine that some of these Chinese companies might be fudging their numbers.

Three Winners for you...

Perrigo (PRGO) +2.12 to 98.84 - Perrigo makes various drug store brand health care products.  Next time you are in a CVS or Rite Aid, look on the back of one of their generic products, like aspirins or creams...many are made by Perrigo.

Allergan (AGN) +1.40 to new high of 85.50 - makes various medical products including their most notable Botox.

IBM (IBM) +1.97 to 179.52 - IBM is very well positioned in just about every area of technology...has been very strong of late.

Noon Update....

The averages are still higher, but there are plenty of market leaders taking it on the chin.

Dow +180
Nas +10
S&P +14 to 1165

Notable decliners:

Green Mountain (GMCR) -5.63 to 98.25
Amazon (AMZN) -5.60 to 224.20
Apple (AAPL) - 2.00 to 394.10
Baidu (BIDU) -8 to 113.34
Wynn Resorts (WYNN) -7.97 to 127.55
Chipotle (CMG) -5.00 to 314
Priceline (PCLN) -19 to 479

Plosser calls Operation Twist "risky"...

Philly Fed's Charles Plosser, one of the Three Dissenters, weighs in again on Operation Twist, calling it a "risky" move that won't spark business hiring or consumer spending. "We should not take certain actions simply because we can," warning that "even more accommodative monetary policy" could lead to high inflation down the road.

Link to discussion of iPad vs. Kindle Fire...

If you are interested, here is a discussion...

http://www.cnn.com/2011/09/28/tech/gaming-gadgets/kindle-fire-vs-ipad#

Today's Upgardes and Downgrades...

These are some of this Thursday’s top analyst upgrades, downgrades, and initiations seen having an impact from Wall Street research calls.


Advanced Micro Devices, Inc. (NYSE: AMD) Cut to Underperform at BofA/ML; Maintained Buy but cut target to $7 at Canaccord Genuity.
Amazon.com Inc. (NASDAQ: AMZN) Maintained Buy with $255 target at BofA/ML.
The Blackstone Group (NYSE: BX) Started as Neutral at Stern Agee.
Cardinal Health, Inc. (NYSE: CAH) named Bull of the Day at Zacks.
Celestica Inc. (NYSE: CLS) Started as Market Perform at BMO.
Dril-Quip, Inc. (NYSE: DRQ) Cut to Neutral at JPMorgan.
InterMune, Inc. (NASDAQ: ITMN) Reiterated Buy with $44 target at Canaccord Genuity.
Jabil Circuit Inc. (NYSE: JBL) Reiterated Buy and $24 target at Argus.
Kohlberg Kravis Roberts & Co. (NYSE: KKR) Started as Buy at Stern Agee.
ONEOK Partners. LP (NYSE: OKS) Raised to Outperform at Credit Suisse.
Valero Energy Corporation (NYSE: VLO) named as value stock of the day at Zacks.

At 10:25 am....

The averages are showing gains, but it looks like underneath some damage is going on.

Dow +209
Nas +8
S&P +13

AMZN now down 5 to 224
AAPL now down 3.60 to 393
GLD now only up 0.40 to 156.64
SLV now up 0.48 to 29.37

Stocks open higher...

At 9:45 am stocks are broadly higher in what looks to be alot of short covering following the better than expected unemployment numbers.

Dow +209
Nas 40
S&P +21 to 1172

There are pockets of weakness out there, so I'm not necessarily buying it that we are going to hold up here.

Here's what I am watching:

Apple opened up 5 points to 402
Amazon opened up 4.50 to 234
GLD opened up 1.80 to 158
SLV opened up 1.05 to $30

Let's see if those gains hold up.

More in 30 minutes...

Mosaic misses earnings estimates...

Fertilizer company Mosaic (MOS) stock is down this morning after posting disappointing earnings last night after the bell.

Mosaic posted $1.17 in EPS. Analysts had been expecting $1.27 in earnings, although it’s not clear whether the estimates were comparable. Gross margin expanded to 27.5% from 23.1%. Net sales of both phosphates and potash rose 40%.

“Our Potash business continues to generate great returns,” said CEO Jim Prokopanko. ”We accelerated our summer maintenance work, driving higher operating rates to meet strong demand.”

“Global demand for phosphate continues to grow, and we are operating near full capacity to meet customer requirements,” Prokopanko added.

Last week, Standard & Poor’s announced that Mosaic would join the S&P 500.

Cisco revamping software...

Cisco (CSCO) is announcing a major software revamp for its enterprise videoconferencing line, with a focus on recording and sharing video content, and extending support to mobile devices. Videoconferencing has remained a growth market for Cisco, as the company battles Polycom (PLCM) for market leadership.

Neither company's stock has done very well lately:

Ford plans to add 7,000 jobs in U.S. – CEO...

The automaker stuck to its target of adding 7,000 jobs in the United States over the next two years, saying it sees an economic expansion there and not a double-dip recession.

Nice to see Alan Mallaly has so much confidence in the economy considering his company's stock price has fallen from $18.97 a share back in January to closing under $10 yesterday.

Morgan Stanly cuts Oil forecast...

Morgan Stanley cuts its 2012 forecast for Brent crude to $100, from $130, on its expectation for returning supply from Libya, Canada and the North Sea. Analysts with the firm see weak demand offsetting inventory cuts by OPEC.

Ha....this is hilarious.  Oil is currently at 82.46 per barrel.  The analyst is trying to slip his forecast down so he doesn't look so stupid.  Maybe no one will notice.

How worthless are these guys???

Here is the long term chart:

Discover faces enforcement action from FDIC...

Discover (DFS), down 4% yesterday in a mysterious swoon, faces an enforcement action from the FDIC over the company's marketing practices. The firm says it believes it has already addressed the issues related to the FDIC complaint, which was filed after the market closed.

DFS closed yesterday at $23.88

Autozone approves stock buyback...

The Board of Directors at AutoZone (AZO) approves an additional $750M stock buyback, on top of its existing share repurchasement plan.

This is strange.  Usually companies buyback shares when a stock has fallen and the company thinks the shares are a bargain.  The weekly chart is below...note the stock near all-time highs...so why would they be buying back shares here???  Hmmm...

2 Possible Reasons:

1. They think the stock is going higher; or
2. They want to reduce the number of shares outstanding, which would help prop up their earnings per share.  Maybe they know their earnings are NOT going to be a good as expected???

Imperial Holdings follow up...

We mentioned this on Tuesday...

Imperial Holdings(IFT) lost well more than half of its market capitalization Wednesday as investors crowded the exits in the wake of a raid of the company's offices by federal authorities.

The Boca Raton, Fla.-based company, which provides loans and cash payments based on life insurance policies and structured settlements, acknowledged late Tuesday it was served with a search warrant by the U.S. District Court of the Southern District of Florida, saying it fully cooperated with the exercise of the warrant.

Imperial further disclosed that both the company and certain employees, including its chairman and CEO Antony Mitchell, are being investigated by the District of New Hampshire, and that the probe relates to its life finance business. Perhaps coincidentally, the "How it Works" section for the company's life finance business on its Web site is currently listed as Under Construction.

The stock closed Wednesday, down over 70% on the day. Earlier in the session, the shares sank as low as $1.55. At current levels, the company's market cap is a little more than $50 million.


"Today's action comes as a complete surprise," said CEO Mitchell in the company's prepared statement. "We are not aware of any wrongdoing and will cooperate fully with all relevant authorities to assist them in their investigation."

Good Morning....

Futures are higher after the weekly jobs report showed much less than expected jobless claims. 

As of now Dow futures point to another 100 plus point open.  Of course, I don't put alot of creedence in the futures anymore as they are clearly manipulated by large trading firms.

The concern going into today is the way the market closed each of the last two sessions.  On both Tuesday and Wednesday, the Dow gave up 150 points in the last hour of trading.  It would be nice if we could stop that trend. 

Stocks sell off in last hour....

It looked as if whatever was holding the market up, was pulled away in the last 45 minutes.

Dow -179
Nas -55
S&P -24 to 1151

All groups were lower, but commodities and transports were beaten up the most.

Amazon closed up 5.50 to 229.71
Apple fell three points in the last 30 minutes to close at 397.01
Gold ETF (GLD) fell 4.41 to 156.22 - a new low in the latest move lower

In each of the last two trading sessions, stocks have sold off hard in the 3-4 pm hour.  Today we were up over 120 points early, then closed down 180 on the day.  That is not a good tape.  Another selloff like this tomorrow, and we will move to "full protection mode" again.