Thursday, September 15, 2011

RIMM reports after the bell today...

After a series of increasingly disappointing quarterly earnings announcements, Wall Street is hoping that Research in Motion (RIMM) will deliver better results today.

The Canadian phone maker — most famous for its iconic Blackberry devices — will be reporting its second quarter earnings after the markets close later today.

Analysts are predicting earnings of 87 cents a share for the period, which is within RIM’s own guidance range of adjusted profit of between 75 cents and $1.05 per share.  Higher would be better, based on the hope is that sales of its most recent smartphones with the Blackberry 7 operating system and also its lackluster PlayBook tablet will help its results, after a downward slide that has been painful.

Here is a look at RIMM's weekly chart:

Whole Foods breaking out to new all-time highs...

Whole Foods (WFM) stock is breaking out today to new highs.  It is currently up 1.70 to 68.51

Whole Foods has raised its guidance for this fiscal year and has provided strong guidance for next year. Management is confident about the company's prospects going forward, and so are we. Whole Foods leads its industry in terms of margins, growth, balance sheet quality, and the quality of the food it sells. Whole Foods is leading its shoppers to healthier food.

Whole Foods has beaten earnings estimates for 11 straight quarters.

Here is the weekly chart:

At 3:00 pm....

Stocks are broadening their rally.  All 30 Dow stacks are now higher, and we are seeing substantial moves in Oil, Banks, and commodity stocks.  Gold and silver still selling off.

Dow +177
Nas +35
S&P +20 to 1206

Netflix is the day's big loser.  It is now down 38 points to 170.

Postal Service proposes changes...

The U.S. Postal Service proposes "sweeping changes" to save up to $3B a year - including potentially closing 250 processing facilities. Shares of Stamps.com (STMP -3.6%) have gained 81% in a 3-month tear anticipating a breakdown of business as usual (losses) at the USPS.

Noon Update...

Stock averages are still higher, led by Blue Chip names.  28 of 30 Dow stocks are higher, while technology and previous leaders are taking a day off.

Dow +103
Nas +15
S&P +10 to 1198.

Gold and silver are both down.  Banks, oils, and consumer stocks higher.  Healthcare started slowly but now are turning positive.

Foreclosures rising...

Foreclosure filings were reported on 228,000 properties in August, +7% M/M, with 78,800 default notices, +33% M/M and the highest monthly gain in four years, RealtyTrac reports. The jump may mean that lenders are pushing through more of the foreclosures delayed by robo-signing. Bank of America (BAC) reportedly has been ramping foreclosures into overdrive.

Gold breaking down....

Gold is breaking thru major support levels today.  It has been weak over the last several sessions, but had been holding up.  Today it is breaking down.

Take a look at GLD, the Gold ETF.  It had been holding up at the 175 level.  Today it is down 3.96 to 173.24.  A break below 165 might start the end of the gold mania.:


Cooperman Bullish on stocks...

Thinking that Pres. Obama will shift his "anti-business" views for "political reasons," hedge fund titan Leon Cooperman remains bullish on stocks. His favorite: Spectrum Brands (SPM), because of its focus on middle-income shoppers that are becoming more "thrifty" by moving to lower-cost products. Other favorites:

Apple (AAPL)
Boston Scientific (BSX)
KKR (KKR)
Qualcomm (QCOM)
Sallie Mae (SLM)

This is one of the few Hedge Fund managers whose opinions I respect....

Treasury yields jump...

U.S. Treasuries dive following what appears to be a coordinated QE from the major Western central banks. Both the 10 and 30 years are down more than a full point in price.

The yield on the 10 year up 12 basis points to 2.12%, the 30 year up 8 bps to 3.36%.

20 minutes in....

Stocks are climbing in reaction to the strengthening moves in the Euro.  Taking a look at my board, it looks like money is flowing into the blue chip names as opposed to the high beta names that have been moving over the last few days.

Dow +104
Nas +17
S&P +9 to 1198

US Fed moves to help ECB...

Stocks jump on news that the ECB will offer European banks dollar loans coordinated with the Fed and other central banks. European shares are flying following central bank announcements of dollar funding availability to EU banks. Stoxx 50 +4.5%.

The dollar is getting sold across the board. Gold is tumbling, -2% to $1,790/oz.

Amazon launches in Spain...

Amazon.com Inc. (AMZN). The company launched an online store in Spain on Wednesday, a move that may be the start of a new international push for the world's largest Internet retailer. Customers can sign up as Amazon Prime members and get free two- to three- day shipping for 14.95 euros, or about $20, a year.

Groupon back on track for IPO...

The Groupon IPO is back on track, according to sources, with the company aiming to go public in late October/early November. While a resolution of the SEC investigation helps, of more import is the company's confidence that market conditions have improved.

I think they better hurry up and get this thing out there before the window of opportunity closes.  Amazon, Living Social, Yahoo, Google, Facebook are all getting into this business...if you want to call it that.  I think it's garbage personally.

Netflix lowers outlook...

Netflix (NFLX) is down 30 points to 178 premarket after lowering its Q3 U.S. subscriber growth forecast to 21.8M streaming and 14.2M DVD, from a previous (July 25) 22M and 15M.

"Despite the guidance revision, we remain convinced that the splitting of our services was the right long-term strategic choice. We know our decision to split our services has upset many of our subscribers, which we don't take lightly, but we believe this split will help us make our services better for subscribers and shareholders for years to come."

A couple things hurting Netflix:  They just raised their monthly subscription rate and they just lost the Starz content, which in my opinion was their only movie content worth paying for.

Futures unchanged....

Stock index futures move off of their highs following the 8:30 economic reports pointing towards higher inflation and weakening growth.

Coming off of three straight days of gains, we may be due for a slight pullback.  Keeping an eye in the 1200 level in the S&P 500 and also on Gold prices.

Wednesday, September 14, 2011

Crazy last hour....

Stocks closed with gains, but fell off their highs in the last half hour of trading.  Here are the closing numbers:

Dow +140
Nas +40
S&P +15 to close at 1188

Some of our favorites made nice moves:

Perrigo (PRGO) +3.52 to 92.99
Crocs (CROX) +1.33 to 27.27
SXC Health +3.46 to 57.25
Cummins (CMI) +1.97 to 94.17
VMWare (VMW) +2.57 to 93.48

Stocks explode to the upside...

at 3:30 pm, stocks are taking off on optimism that Greece will resolve their debt crisis.  Default has already been built in, so shorts are getting caught with their pants down in here.

Dow +262
Nas +66
S&P +28 to 1200

1200 is that key level we keep bouncing around for the S&P.  A close above that would be positive technically.

BAC fires Chief Market Strategist for being too Bullish???

Bank of America (BAC) replaces its usually bullish chief market strategist David Bianco just one day after his call for S&P 1450 over the next 12 months.

This is incredible...

Healthcare Information stocks moving higher...

Here are a few that I follow:

SXC Health Solutions (SXCI) +1.80 to 55.59
Allscripts (MDRX) 0.55 to 18.15
Merge Healthcare (MRGE) +0.18 to 6.79






Looking for an Oil play???

Take a look at Carbo Ceramics (CRR).  Carbo Ceramics manufactures and sells proppant, a product used during the hydraulic fracturing of wells. The proppant is placed into the well along with the fluid and remains behind to hold open the fractures created in the rock. Most of the company's sales are of ceramic proppant, a more expensive product that the company markets as superior to other alternatives.

Q2 2011 Results

Carbo Ceramics reported a net income of $29.9 million, or $1.29 per diluted share in the second quarter of 2011. Revenues came in at $149.7 million for the quarter, a 34% increase over the second quarter of 2010. The company sold 387 million pounds of proppant in the quarter, a 23% year over year increase. This growth is expected to continue going forward as the consensus earnings estimates for the company is at $7.08 per share in 2012, up from $5.39 in 2011.

Stamps.com still breaking higher...

On Monday we looked at Stamps.com.  The stock is hitting New Highs again today.

It is currently up 2.12 to a 52-week high of 23.04

The all-time high was 34.00 set back in 2006.

Here is a chart:

At Noon stocks are positive...

Looks like stocks are shaking off weakness in Europe again.

Dow +38
Nas +22
S&P +6 to 1178

The tape is very positive.  Tech is up, Gold, Oil and Banks are down.

Just to show you some Bond yields....

Here are a few corporate bonds that just came across my desk:

JP Morgan Chase
Aa3 / A+ rated 
4.35% coupon
8/15/21 maturity
Price: 105.5
3.68 Current yield
Noncallable

Commonwealth Edison
Baa1/A- rated
3.40% coupon
9/1/21 maturity
Price: 102.5
3.10 current yield
Noncallable

Goldman Sachs
A1/A rated
6.25% coupon
2/1/41 maturity
Price at par 100
6.25 current yield
Noncallable

European stocks down...

European shares are dropping sharply - back to near flat following big early gains - after the Austrian Parliament fails to approve an upgrade of the European rescue fund.

Our markets sold off initially on this news, Dow was down 105+ points.

Let's see if we can shake this off and resume our move higher.

At 10:00 am....

Stocks are mixed...actually hanging tough in here considering the last two up days we have had.

Dow +11
Nas +15
S&P +2

Report on BP spill to be released today...

BP shares surge in the wake of a WSJ article that suggests blame for last year's Gulf of Mexico spill could be apportioned more widely than initially thought. Any indication that BP wouldn’t be held solely responsible for the accident reduces the chances of it being found grossly negligent.

BP stock is up 1.60 to 38.04 ion premarket trading.

Raymond James defends Silvercorp...

Raymond James is defending Silvercorp (SVM) following a fraud investigation from Canadian regulators, and a negative report from Alfred Little. The firm thinks a Chinese mine brought up in Alfred Little's report is a quality asset, and believes the recent decline in Silvercorp shares presents a buying opportunity.

We mentioned this story yesterday as Silvercorp's stock was falling.

More on Best Buy...

Best Buy (BBY) CEO Brian Dunn says the retailer's 1,100 stores still give it an advantage over online rivals. He hears the calls of investors to close stores, but says mixing a strong online assortment with store retailing is a "winning scenario in the long haul."

This Best Buy case is one to keep a close eye on.  I think this online vs. "bricks and morter" battle strikes right at the heart of our country's unemployment problem, which may or may not lead to more government programs to support those who are shut out by the closing of stores.    

Fitch downgrades Spain...

Fitch downgrades 5 Spanish regions and puts them on negative outlook, saying the move reflects "the sharp fiscal deterioration seen in recent years which has led to sharp increases in debt levels." Five other regions rated by Fitch are not downgraded, but are put on negative outlook.

Why is our market not reacting negatively to this news??? 

GE to redeem preferreds...

Dow component General Electric (GE) is also in the news, as it plans to redeem the preferred shares held by Berkshire Hathaway (BRK/A) for $3.3 billion. Those shares were bought by Berkshire during the 2008 financial crisis.

This is a sign of good health.

Ebay stealing from Craigslist???

Ebay (EBAY) could be a stock to watch today, following news that the Justice Department is probing alleged criminal activities by employees. They're suspected of taking information from Craigslist to develop a competing service.

Futures point to higher open...

Hey.  How about this.  Looks like we have shaken off all the doom and gloom out there, and we are looking for a third straight up day.

S&P futures currently up 8 points.

Tuesday, September 13, 2011

Stocks close broadly higher...

Dow +44 to 11105
Nas +37 to 2532
S&P +10 to 1172

Oils, commodities and Technology led the way.

It was a nice follow thru from yesterday's last hour close.  Especially considering that Futures were down so much earlier.  Let's hope Europe can have another positive day overnight.

Cummins looks for 14% annual growth...

Shares of Cummins Inc. are soaring (up 5.28 to 92.38) after the diesel engine maker said they expect 2011 to be a record year.

Chairman and CEO Tim Solso told a group of about 150 Wall Street analysts that the Columbus, Ind. company hopes to post $30 billion in sales in 2015 and expects to grow at an annual rate of about 14 percent to reach that target. 

"Despite the current uncertainty surrounding the strength of economic growth in some regions of the world, 2011 will be a record year for Cummins," Solso said.

Here's a look at Cummins chart:

Nice Rally in Europe...

European stocks brake a more than 10% slide in since Labor Day, closing solidly higher. Stoxx 50 +1.8%, Germany +1.4%, France +1.1%, Italy +1.7%, Spain +2.4%, U.K. +1%. French bank shares had a wild ride, with SocGen 15% higher after swinging 32% on the day.

Check out Universal Display (PANL)...

We mentioned this one about a week ago.

The stock is climbing again today, up 4.80 to 56.03

Here is the Weekly Chart:

A Silver Scam???

Silvercorp (SVM -11.7%) is falling hard after Alfred Little issues a bearish report questioning the company's "production, quality and resource estimates" for a Chinese mine, and claiming much of the company's sales growth has come from " two questionable customers."

Here is the weekly chart.  Looks like a near perfect head and shoulders breakdown:

Insider transactions are bullish...

Consider a ratio of the total number of shares recently sold by insiders of all publicly traded corporations in the U.S., to the number of shares they purchased.

According to the Vickers Weekly Insider Report, published by Argus Research, the average level of this ratio over the last four decades is between 2-to-1 and 2.5-to-1. They therefore consider it to be bullish whenever this ratio drops below that long-term average.

The ratio for insider transactions last week, according to the latest Vickers Weekly Insider Report, was 1.27-to-1. The eight-week average of this ratio, which smooths out the week-to-week volatility, is an even more bullish 1.03-to-1.

This is the lowest level for the eight-week ratio since late 2008 and early 2009. The bull market, of course, began in March 2009.

Here is the longer term chart of Insider Sales vs. Buys:
 

Stocks turn positive...

At 5 am this morning Dow futures were down 141 points.  The Dow just turned positive and stocks are building on yesterday's late gains.  Needless to say, that is a nice reversal.

Dow +8
Nas +16
S&P +5 to 1167

Best Buy misses...

Electronics retailer Best Buy Co. said Tuesday that its fiscal second-quarter profit fell to $177 million, or 47 cents a share, from $254 million, or 60 cents, a year earlier.

Revenue in the quarter rose slightly to $11.35 billion from $11.34 billion.

Analysts surveyed by FactSet estimated profit of 52 cents a share on revenue of $11.47 billion.

Shares of Best Buy are opening down 0.60 to 24.35

Toyota expands in Indonesia...

Toyota Motor Corp (TM). The auto giant said it will invest 2.9 trillion rupiah in Indonesia, building a new factory and rolling out a new model, in its second move this year to expand in the fast-growing car market.

Futures down but off their lows....

Wall Street comes off a notable Monday session in which the Dow surged more than 183 points in the final hour trading to finish higher for the day.

That move broke a string of six straight triple-digit moves for the Dow - and also continued another interesting if quirky streak: stocks have not fallen on a Monday since August 8.

Futures are pointing to a lower open this morning despite the late rally, with European debt concerns once again dominating investor attention.

Monday, September 12, 2011

As I thought might happen....

Stocks stage a late rally to close higher on the day. 

Dow +69 to 11060
Nas +27 to 2495
S&P +8 to 1162

Key was that S&P held up at 1140 support.  Banks and Oils turned positive in the last hour to help the averages move higher. 

It appears to me that the market is exhausted to the downside.  Today, we didn't get any good news, but you could just see that the market did not want to sell off.  Gold sold off $40 to $1819 an ounce.

Tomorrow will be a very important session.  A follow thru to the upside would be very positive.

Student Loan defaults rise...

Student loan default rates are on the rise - from 7% to 8.8% - with the sharpest increase coming from the troubled for-profit sector, where the rate has jumped to 15% from 11.6%. The government has promised to crack down - banning schools from taking students with federal loans if they don't meet certain criteria.

At 3:00 pm....

Stocks are still lower, as it looks like program selling is kicking in every time we start to rally.

Dow -109
Nas -14
S&P -12 to 1141

There are quite a few stocks that have been moving higher, as my screen is about 1/3 green.

This could be an interesting last hour.

Similar chart for Southwest Airlines (LUV)....

Check out this chart....

US Airways (LCC).  The company recently reported that airline bookings had dropped 1 %.

Stamps.com breaking out to new highs...

Stamps.com (STMP) provides internet-based postage solutions and has been in an uptrend since it announced earnings at the end of July. The company upped guidance for 2011 to GAAP net income of $.87-$1.07/share and revenue of $90 to $100 million. The company's balance sheet is strong with no debt and a current ratio of 3.23.

STMP could benefit in the long-term from any USPS cuts in local offices or hours.

Warren Buffett's latest buys...

The following is a list of major portfolio buys by Warren Buffett for the last quarter, according to the latest 13F filing of Berkshire Hathway Inc. (BRK.A)

Dollar General (DG)
Mastercard (MA)
Wells Fargo (WF)
Kraft Foods (KFT)
Verisk Analytics (VRSK)

Verisk Analytics, Inc. is a leading provider of risk assessment and decision analytics, primarily serving the property/casualty insurance, mortgage lending, and healthcare markets. Verisk's EPS forecast for the current year is $1.64 and next year is $1.88. According to consensus estimates, its top line is expected to grow 14.90% in the current year and 9.90% next year.

European stocks sell off again...

Europe closes the books on another horrid day. Stoxx 50 -4%, Germany -2.3%, France -4.1%, Italy -3.9%, Spain -3.3%. The U.K. outperforms, -1.7%. With panicky declines being the new normal in Europe, U.S. shares have (thus far) mostly shrugged it off.

Jeffries likes Express Scripts...

Express Scripts (ESRX) is up slightly after Jeffries analyst calls it "the most mis-priced stock in our coverage universe." Jeffries notes Express Scripts' pending merger with Medco Health (MHS) remains on track, and that synergies are expected to be worth around $1B. The firm also isn't concerned about fears of lost business with Walgreen (WAG).

ESRX is up 0.33 to $44.00

Obama speaking about jobs bill...

...and the market sells off.

Dow -119
Nas -15
S&P -12 to 1142

Key level of support to watch for the S&P here is 1140

Congress returns from vacation...

Hope they enjoyed themselves.

Today's Upgrades and Downgrades...

These are some of this Monday’s top analyst upgrades, downgrades, and initiations seen having an impact from Wall Street research calls.

Agrium Inc. (NYSE: AGU) Raised to Neutral at Goldman Sachs.
Clean Harbors, Inc. (NYSE: CLH) Raised to Overweight at JPMorgan.
ConocoPhillips (NYSE: COP) maintained Buy but cut target to $85 at Argus.
Dendreon Corporation (NASDAQ: DNDN) Cut to Neutral at Roth.
FedEx Corporation (NYSE: FDX) Cut to Neutral at BofA/ML.
Intrepid Potash, Inc. (NYSE: IPI) Cut to Sell at Goldman Sachs.
KBR, Inc. (NYSE: KBR) listed as the value stock of the day at Zacks.
McDermott International (NYSE: MDR) called Bear of the Day at Zacks.
NetSuite Inc. (NYSE: N) Started as Outperform at Credit Suisse.
NII Holdings Inc. (NASDAQ: NIHD) Cut to Equal-Weight at Morgan Stanley.
Oracle Corporation (NASDAQ: ORCL) Raised to Conviction Buy List at Goldman Sachs.
The Mosaic Co. (NYSE: MOS) Raised to Buy at Goldman Sachs.
SuccessFactors, Inc. (NASDAQ: SFSF) Removed from U.S. Focus List at Credit Suisse.
Texas Instruments Inc. (NYSE: TXN) Maintained Buy but target to $35 at Argus.
Valero Energy Corporation (NYSE: VLO) named Bull of the Day at Zacks.
VimpelCom Ltd. (NYSE: VIP) Raised to Overweight at HSBC.
Zions Bancorp. (NASDAQ: ZION) Cut to Underperform at Stern Agee; Maintained Outperform at Credit Suisse.

He must have another book to sell...

Author Harry Dent has gone from predicting Dow 40K to Dow 3K. Dent, who once predicted equities would see a massive bull market during the 2000s, sees a combination of declining Baby Boomer spending and post-bubble deleveraging producing deflation, and having a devastating effect on asset prices.

This makes me want to buy stocks...

Wynn up on Macau deal...

Shares of Wynn (WYNN +3.2%) post a gain after its earlier announcement it grabbed a $193M Macau deal away from rivals. A Deutsche note to clients says the contract with the Macau government will allow the casino operator to open a new casino in 2015 (at the earliest), but cautions against "downside risks" the firm still faces.

15 minutes in...

Dow -109
Nas -12
S&P -9 to 1144

While the averages are lower, Breadth on my screen is improving.

Look for some buying in here...Today has a chance to be a nice reversal day.

Gold is selling off.

Greek default already built in???

I think it is. Today's lower opening may represent a good opportunity for an entrypoint, if you are looking for such. I mean, how many days are we going to sell off because of possible Greek default???

Broadcom to buy NetLogic...

Broadcom (BRCM) agrees to buy NetLogic Microsystems (NETL) for $3.7B in a definitive merger agreement expected to close in the first half of 2012. The firm calls the deal a "strategic fit" that should deliver financial results.

Rivals in the space potentially seeing interest: LSI, CAVM, MRVL, VTSS, FSL, PMCS, AMCC.

Wellpoint to use IBM to diagnose treatments...

WellPoint Inc. (WLP). The health insurer and computer giant IBM (IBM) agreed to commercially use IBM's Watson technology that could help physicians identify best treatment options.

Interdigital gets a lift from Bloomberg article...

Shares of wireless patent maven InterDigital (IDCC) are up $2 premarket after a Bloomberg article released late Friday described Intel (INTC), Taiwan’s HTC and others as being interested in acquiring the company’s intellectual property, citing multiple anonymous sources.

Intel, HTC and Samsung Electronics (SSNLF) and Ericsson (ERIC) are said to be reviewing InterDigital confidential documents to judge the assets, the sources say, and there may be some collaborative bidding, the authors write.

This is not new news....this has been ongoing for a few weeks.

Amazon looking to compete with Netflix...

Amazon.com Inc. (AMZN). The company is in talks with book publishers about launching a media library service similar to Netflix Inc (NFLX) for tablets and other digital books, the WSJ reported on Sunday. Amazon is also expected to release a tablet to rival Apple Inc's (AAPL) iPad in coming weeks, the Journal reported.

Futures lower...

The weekend was apparently not the pause that refreshes for Wall Street: U.S. stock index futures are pointing to a sharply lower open, following Friday's more than 300 point loss for the Dow.


Stocks have fallen in five of the past six sessions, and fresh worries about a Greek debt default are weighing heavily on global investors sentiment this morning.

Friday, September 9, 2011

Markets close lower...

Here are the final numbers:

Dow -303 to 10992
Nas -61 to 2467
S&P -31 to 1154

Only three stocks up worth noting:

Ulta Salon & Cosmetics (ULTA) closed up 8.69 to 68.45 on better than expected earnings.
Terra Nitrogen LP (TNH) closed up 3.68 to 187.08 - no news but the stock pays an 8% dividend
Tractor Supply Co. (TSCO) up 1.21 to 64.71 - no news but strong all day

Hold your breath on Sunday evening, hopefully Greece can solve its problems...we'll see.

Have a great weekend!!!  Enjoy the first full weekend of football!!!

Greek one year note paying 98%...

That's right, 98%.

Basically this is telling you that they are going to default.

So the question is, "Do you feel lucky???  Punk???"

Talk about bad timing...

Pandora (P) the online radio player, came out with their IPO on June 15 at $20 a share.

The stock now trades at 10.50.  Ouch!!!

At 3:00 pm....

Stocks are near the lows of the day. 

Dow -338
Nas -71
S&P -35 to 1150

Gold still lower, there are no stocks higher in the Dow.

Gold starting to dislocate from market....

The Gold ETF (GLD) is selling off this afternoon even thohg stocks are still close to their intraday lows.

GLD is down 2.28 to 179.50

Typically Gold has been the place where money has been moving as it exits stocks.  Looks like some huge holder of the GLD is dumping.

Sprint might be worth a look...

Sources indicate Sprint (S) plans to offer the iPhone 5 with unlimited data - a real draw to users looking to stream music, TV and movies. The move could be a difference-maker, says an analyst at Bank of Montreal. "Consumers will pay a premium for unlimited."

Sprint currently trades at 3.46

Treasury yields hit new low....

Earlier today, the 10 year U.S. Treasury yield dipped to 1.896%, the lowest rate in at least 60 years.


Right now the yield is at 1.93%.

Greece releases statement...

Greek Minister of Finance just released a statement saying that Greece WILL NOT default on its debt and is critical that there is some sort of coordinated effort to try to knock the country down. 

Doesn't surprise me.  Traders are spreading all kinds of rumors out there to create fear so they can short.  Until now shorting has been easy money...almost too easy.  At some point very soon, I sense we are going to get a serious snap back in the markets that will burn these shorts badly.

Odd thing right now, Gold is selling off.

At 1:00 pm...

We are still down considerably as traders are reluctant to buy ahead of this weekend with the Greek story looming.  

Dow -303
Nas -55
S&P -30 to 1155

Stocks that are bucking the trend:

ULTA up 7.50 to 67.30
Terra Nitrogen +2.41 to 185.81
Tractor Supply +1.14 to 64.64
Walter Energy +1.25 to 89.05

Market hits another air pocket....

At 11:45 am the market is at day lows.  Now rumors are out there that we could see a default in Greek debt as soon as this weekend.  As a result, bids for stocks have clearly been pulled.

Dow -297
Nas -52
S&P - 28 to 1157

I'm getting a little tired of this European situation.  I'm not sure what, if any, effect the Greeks defaulting has on our economy.  Maybe we just need something significant to happen there and get this out of the way.

Las Vegas Sands gets an upgrade...

Shares of Las Vegas Sands (LVS +0.7%) post a small gain after Stifel Nicolaus ups its PT on shares to $60 from $58. Analyst Steve Wieczynski says the casino operator is well-positioned to introduce new supply into the Macau market, helping it "disproportionately grow its market share ahead of its local competitors."

LVS is up 0.23 to 47.38

I hate to get political...

but politicians need to start doing something productive.  I see absolutlely nothing coming out of Washington that is actually geared toward bringing the US back to prominence.  All I see is a bunch of guys trying to make sure the other side doesn't get re-elected. 

Want a reason why your investments are going nowhere???  This is it.  I say fire them all, unless they start to work together....like soon!!!  If the Republicans don't like Obama's jobs plan, then lets get in a room and figure out the best plan for our country that both sides will agree with.

Apple iPhone sales strong...

Good news and bad news at Apple (AAPL), according to Jefferies' Peter Misek: Back-to-school Mac sales are weaker than expected, reducing his current quarter Mac shipment forecast to 4.4M, but iPhone sales are “surprisingly strong” and raising his forecast to 18.9M. Misek sees a strong December quarter and FY12, maintaining his Buy rating at $500 target.

Not surprising, just look around you.  People are using their iPhones as their tool to access the internet.  PC's and laptops are almost becoming obsolete...especially with the younger generation. My 17 year old son uses his Ipod touch and my 16 year old daughter uses an iPad.

Texas Instruments trims earnings forecast....

Texas Instruments Inc. (TXN). The chipmaker said its third-quarter earnings and revenue would be worse than already low expectations as concern about an economic slowdown is stifling demand for products that use its chips. It forecast third-quarter earnings of 56 cents to 60 cents per share compared with its previous expectation for 55 cents to 65 cents.

Texas Instruments stock is holding up well, up 0.52 to 26.30

Ulta Salon rosy about the future...

Ulta Salon, Cosmetics & Fragrance Inc. (ULTA). The beauty retailer became the latest company in the U.S. beauty industry to post strong results and give a rosy outlook for the current quarter, as new products and promotions help drive growth. Second-quarter net income jumped 82 percent to $23.9 million, or 38 cents a share, topping market expectations of 32 cents a share. For the third quarter, the company expects to earn 36-38 cents a share on revenue of $400-$407 million.

Ulta stock is currently up 5.87 to 65.63

Stocks open lower...

15 minutes into the day, stocks are selling off in sympathy with Europe. 

Dow -184
Nas -31
S&P -16

This open seems to me to be a bit disconnected from what is going on over here.  It looks to me like the kind of open that can reverse itself...let's see what happens in the next few hours.

The Great Flood...

This is ridiculous!!!  An earthquake, a hurricane and now the most rain I've ever seen in three days.  The NE is really getting "the business" from Mother Nature.

Packers defeat Saints 42-34...

Well, the Saints tried, but the Pack was too good offensively.  A pretty good game to start the season. 

Exchanges take a moment of silence...

Before the bell, the exchanges are observing a moment of silence commemorating the 10 year anniversity of the 9/11 attacks.  The anniversary is Sunday.

Transports view of the economy...

Warren Buffett considers rail traffic a good barometer for gauging economic health, and as the operator of the largest U.S. railroad by sales, Union Pacific (UNP) has as good a view of this metric as any.

Their take? Shipments of commodities such as farm products and coal remain strong, but those of consumer goods are slackening a bit.

Futures points to slightly lower open...

S&P futures are down slighlty this morning as weakness in overseas markets, a report of potentially large job cuts at BofA, and a profit warning from Texas Instruments overshadow Pres. Obama's $447B jobs package. News of a specific and "credible" terror threat for the 9/11 anniversary also may have unnerved some investors.

Thursday, September 8, 2011

Yet another volatile session....

As expected, we saw another volatile session today.  Closing numbers were:

Dow -119 to 11295
Nas -19 to 2529
S&P -12 to 1185

Bernanke did little to help, in fact his comments were taken as a reason to sell.  Tonight, President Obama speaks to congress at 7 pm, then starting at 8:30 pm the Saints will destroy the Packers. J

Hopefully Obama says something...anything...that the market will like.

Looks like solar stocks may be dead...

Take a look at the solar stock charts.  Looks like the market is showing that the public is once again rejecting solar as an alternative energy.

Sun Power


Jinko Solar



JA Solar


Evergreen Solar

Valero upgraded by Oppenheimer...

Valero Energy (VLO) sits atop the S&P leader board, with Oppenheimer seeing a potential 60% upside in the stock as the company integrates new refineries it recently acquired. Earlier, VLO said it plans to boost Eagle Ford crude delivered to its refineries by 30%, and it doesn't rule out buying Sunoco's (SUN) Pennsylvania refineries.

VLO is up 0.89 to 23.19

At 2:15 pm....

The market is mixed as Bernanke concludes his speech.  In the speech he hints that the Fed stands ready to act if needed.  As he was speaking the Dow sold off 96 + Points.  Right now we have:

Dow -61
Nas -8
S&P -7 to 1191

Consumer stocks are higher, Oil mixed, Banks lower, and gold is higher.

Bernanke's comments send market lower...

from Bernanke's Minnesota speech: "Unusual weakness" in household spending is countered a bit by business. Price pressures before came from "transitory influences" and inflation is expected to moderate in coming quarters to at or below 2%. Fed has a range of tools and it "will continue to consider those... at our meeting in September."

The market is selling off as these comments are released.  Dow is now down 93 points.  Obviously the market does not want QE3 or anything like it. 

Speaking of the NFL....

The NFL season kicks off tonight with a game between the last two Super Bowl Champions. 

New Orleans Saints at Green Bay Packers
8:30 pm start

Should be a great game.  Pregame entertainment is Lady Antebellum, Kid Rock and Maroon 5.

ESPN extends deal with NFL...

Disney's (DIS) ESPN extends a deal with the NFL through 2021 for $15.2B. The deal lets the network extend coverage - possibly into playoffs - and allows it to stream programming to Verizon (VZ) cellphones.

More on tonight's speech...

The President will tonight unveil the "American Jobs Act," a program that includes an extension of payroll tax breaks, funds for infrastructure spending, and aid for long-term unemployed, according to leaked documents. The plan will be paid for by closing of corporate loopholes and higher taxes on the wealthy.

Sounds like more of the same.  As soon as this info was leaked, the market sold off....

Samsung to unveil new tablet...

A report originating from Korea says Samsung (SSNLF.PK) will unveil its new Microsoft (MSFT) Windows 8-powered tablet computer at a developer's conference next week.

Today's Upgrades and Downgrades...

These are some of this Thursday’s top analyst upgrades, downgrades, and initiations seen having an impact from Wall Street research calls.


Amgen Inc. (AMGN) Started as Outperform at BMO.
Ariad Pharmaceuticals Inc. (ARIA) Started as Outperform at BMO.
Biogen Idec Inc. (BIIB) Started as Underperform at BMO.
Celgene Corporation (CELG) Started as Outperform at BMO.
China Life Insurance (LFC) Started as Underperform as Bear of the Day at Zacks.
Cisco Systems, Inc. (CSCO) Raised to Buy at Auriga.
Darden Restaurants, Inc. (DRI) Raised to Outperform at Wells Fargo.
Fusion-io Inc. (FIO) Started as Sell at Merriman.
Global Payments Inc. (GPN) Started as Buy at Citigroup.
Humana Inc. (HUM) named value stock of the day at Zacks.
Lennar Corporation (LEN) Started as Outperform at FBR.
Motorola Solutions, Inc. (MSI) Raised to Outperform as Bull of the Day at Zacks.
Talbots Inc. (TLB) Raised to Neutral at Piper Jaffray.
Travelzoo Inc. (TZOO) Cut to Market Perform at Morgan Keegan.

Municipal Bonds reaching new highs....

After the Meredith Whitney Muni Bond scare almost a year ago, Municipal Bond prices have come storming back.  Just about every Muni Bond on our clients books are now trading at a premium to par. 

Here is a weekly chart of the Van Kampen Investment Grade Municipal Trust (VGM) - which btw has a tax free yield of 7.44%

Mastercard flying to new highs....

Mastercard (MA) is following thru to the upside this morning. 

The stock is up 5.62 to a new all-time high of 344.60

Here is the weekly chart:

After 40 minutes....

The market looks OK as many stock leaders are higher again after a lower opening.

Dow -26
Nas -4
S&P -5 to 1193

I'm keeping an eye on the fear trade of Gold.

GLD (Gold ETF) is currently up 3.26 to 180.33, let's see what happens to this as the day wears on.

Expect a very volatile session today...

as if this is anything new...

After a 275 point gain in the Dow yesterday, Bernanke speaking at 1:30 pm and positioning ahead of the Obama speach at 7 pm tonight, this should be a wild one...that could go either way.  Still watching the 1200 level on the S&P as the key level to break thru.

Bernanke speaking as well...

Fed chairman Ben Bernanke will be in the spotlight during the trading day, as he speaks before the U.S. Economic Club of Minnesota at 1:30pm ET. 

Obama to call for urgent steps on U.S. economy...

Tonight, President Barack Obama will lay out a jobs package worth more than $300 bill, staking his re-election hopes on a call for urgent bipartisan action to revive the faltering U.S. economy.

Lately, the market doesn't like anything Obama says...