Wednesday, November 16, 2011

Stocks fall in last hour....

The volatility continues...stocks slip into the close.

Dow -190
Nas -46
S&P -20


While not a worrying issue at the moment, Fitch says the broad outlook for the U.S. banking industry could worsen "unless the eurozone debt crisis is resolved in a timely and orderly manner." This might be the reason for the late day selloff.

Rambus loses case...plummets 60%...

Rambus (RMBS -60.4%) resumes trading after being halted in the wake of a federal jury's ruling against the company in a case in which it had alleged Micron (MU) and Hynix had conspired to prevent its computer memory technology from becoming an industry standard. Micron shares, also halted, now trading +21.8%.

20 Nice Dividend paying stocks....

A Credit Suisse list of 20 stocks that reward investors with greater dividend payments than most bonds: Coca-Cola, McDonald's, General Mills, Pepsico, PG, J&J, Abbott, Kimberly Clark, Con Ed, Pfizer, Bristol Myers, Southern, Merck, Philip Morris, Progress, Duke, Eli Lilly, Verizon, AT&T, Altria. Avg. yield: 4.2%. Avg. YTD returns on the underlying stock: 13.3%.

At 2:45 pm....

Stocks have been improving as the day wears on...

Dow -16
Nas -4
S&P -2 to 1255

Leaders on the day:

Green Mountain +5.01
Fusion IO +3.37
Interdigital +2.55
Transocean Offshore +2.12
Carbo Ceramics +4.99
Walter Energy +2.47

Target executing well...

Target's (TGT +1.2%) well-received Q3 report highlights that many of the firm's initiatives such as its 5% credit card discount program and higher-end Missoni line launch were spot-on. On tap now: Navigating around a crucial Black Friday with a grassroots online protest against its Thanksgiving Day opening brewing and a scarily unstable website that keeps execs sweating out the potential for an ill-timed outage.

Abercrombie & Fitch posts higher sales but not much earnings growth...

Abercrombie & Fitch (ANF). The teen clothes retailer posted a rise in quarterly profit as sales in America offset some slowdown in international businesses. For the third quarter, the company earned $50.9 million, or 57 cents a share, compared with $50 million or 56 cents a share last year. Sales rose 21 percent to $1.08 billion.

The stock is down 7.64 to 48.12 today.

Noon update...

At noon stocks are lower, but there are several story stocks bucking the trend.

Dow -67
Nas -14
S&P -7 to 1250


Looks like this market is just stuck right here as investors have stepped to the sidelines and are letting traders do their thing.

Oil services are about the only group heading higher.

Today's Upgrades and Downgrades...

These are some of Wednesday’s top analyst upgrades, downgrades, and initiations seen from Wall Street research calls.

Activision Blizzard Inc. (NASDAQ: ATVI) Reiterated Buy with $18 target at Argus.

Air Products & Chemicals Inc. (NYSE: APD) Reiterated Buy at BofA/ML.

Chimera Investment Corporation (NYSE: CIM) Cut to Sell at Wunderlich.

Dell Inc. (NASDAQ: DELL) Maintained Underperform at Credit Suisse; Reiterated Buy with $22 target at Argus.

Dick’s Sporting Goods Inc. (NYSE: DKS) Raised to Conviction Buy List at Goldman Sachs.

Gentiva Health Services (NASDAQ: GTIV) named Bear of the Day at Zacks.

Geron Corporation (NASDAQ: GERN) Cut to Neutral at JPMorgan.

Plains All American Pipeline, L.P. (NYSE: PAA) named Value stock of the day at Zacks.

Research in Motion Ltd. (NASDAQ: RIMM) Raised to Neutral from Sell at Goldman Sachs.

Sunoco Logistics, LP (NYSE: SXL) named Bull of the Day at Zacks.

TIBCO Software Inc. (NASDAQ: TIBX) Started as Market Perform at BMO Capital; Started as Market Outperform at JMP Securities.

Green Mountain moving higher again...

Green Mountain Coffee (GMCR) is up again this morning after rising 10% yesterday...this in the wake of last week's post-earnings crash, even as it's reported major hedge funds pared their stakes in the company. With 23.2% of Green Mountain's float shorted as of Oct. 31, and many of those shorts now sitting on big profits, more volatility could be on the way.

Goldman likes Dick's Sporting Goods...

Goldman Sachs adds Dick's Sporting Goods (DKS) to its Conviction Buy List citing strong unit growth, margin drivers, and a $0.50/share dividend it says represents a "shift to shareholder-friendly capital allocation." Analysts with the firm line increased their price target $4 to $45.

Target beats expectations...

Target Corp. reported a 3.7 percent increase in third-quarter profits, helped by solid spending and improvement in its credit card business.

The Minneapolis discounter said Wednesday that it earned $555 million, or 82 cents per share, in the three-month period ended Oct. 29. That compares with $535 million, or 74 cents per share, in the year-ago period. Revenue rose 5.4 percent to $16.05 billion. Analysts had expected 74 cents per share on revenue of $16.31 billion, according to FactSet.

Revenue at stores opened at least a year — an indicator of a retailer's health — rose 4.3 percent in the quarter.

"We're very pleased with our third-quarter financial results," said Gregg Steinhafel, Target's chairman, president and chief executive in a statement. "We're confident that we have the right strategy and team in place to drive continued strong performance this holiday season and well into the future."

Tuesday's recap...

Stocks showed some resilience Tuesday, erasing losses in the afternoon to finish higher amid faster turnover.  The Nasdaq added 1.1%, the S&P 500 0.5% and the NYSE composite 0.2%. Volume increased on both major exchanges from Monday's anemic levels.

Stocks rallied on news that Mario Monti, prime minister-designate for debt-wracked Italy, had scored broad support and agreement on cutbacks, and that he's ready to present his new government Wednesday.

U.S. economic news also provided a boost to the market. October retail sales and the New York Fed's manufacturing index both bested forecasts. The producer price index fell more than expected, suggesting the Fed could have more room for easing.

The Nasdaq closed just below its 200-day moving average. It's been struggling to hold over that level in the prior three weeks, falling back below the line four times but finding support at the 2600 level.

It's been a similar story for the S&P 500, which closed under its 200-day line Tuesday. The S&P 500 has been finding support near the 1220 to 1230 level, but meeting resistance at its 200-day average.

In other words, it's about what you would expect for a market uptrend that's under pressure.

Despite Tuesday's gains, Nasdaq stocks making new lows outnumbered those making new highs. NYSE new highs topped new lows, though.

Tuesday, November 15, 2011

Home Depot Beats expectations...

Home Depot (HD): Q3 EPS of $0.60 beats by $0.02. Revenue of $17.3B (+4.4% year over year) beats by $200M. Comparable store sales growth at 4.2%. Sees FY11 EPS at $2.38.

Number of customer transactions increased 1.2% year over year, while the average ticket was up 3%. The company reaffirms full-year sales growth guidance of 2.5%. Increases its quarterly dividend by 16% to $0.29/share, and sets a 50% dividend payout target.


HD is currently down 0.21 to 38.04

Kindle Fire starts shipping today...

As Kindle Fire deliveries kick off to enormous consumer buzz (albeit lukewarm reviews), analysts are making optimistic forecasts about the device's long-term impact. JPMorgan's Doug Anmuth expects 20M Fire shipments in 2012, and $8B in total Kindle-related sales in 2013. Anmuth's bullishness on the Fire's adoption has led him to lift his PT for Amazon (AMZN) to $250 from $230.

Credit Card delinquencies rise...

Capital One (COF) says delinquencies rose in October at its U.S. credit card business for the third straight month, to 3.73% from 3.65%. U.S. charge-offs edged up to 3.96% from 3.9%; internationally, charge-offs rose to 6.24% from 5.65%.

Today's Upgrades and Downgrades..

These are some of Tuesday’s top analyst upgrades, downgrades, and initiations seen from Wall Street research calls.

Advance Auto Parts Inc. (NYSE: AAP) Cut to Hold at Argus.

Agilent Technologies Inc. (NYSE: A) Raised to Buy at BofA/ML.

Alimera Sciences, Inc. (NASDAQ: ALIM) Cut to Neutral with $2 target at Credit Suisse.

CenterPoint Energy, Inc. (NYSE: CNP) Cut to Neutral at BofA/ML.

Chimera Investment Corporation (NYSE: CIM) Reiterated Outperform at Credit Suisse.

Coldwater Creek Inc. (NASDAQ: CWTR) Added to Strong Sell List at Zacks.

Goodyear Tire & Rubber Co. (NYSE: GT) named Bull of the Day at Zacks.

Kellogg Company (NYSE: K) Cut to Sell as Bear of the Day at Zacks.

Lowe’s Companies Inc. (NYSE: LOW) Raised target to $28 from $25 at Argus.

Macy’s Inc. (NYSE: M) named value stock of the day at Zacks.

Northeast Utilities (NYSE: NU) Raised to Buy at BofA/ML.

NSTAR (NYSE: NST) Raised to Buy at BofA/ML.

Salesforce.com Inc. (NYSE: CRM) Reiterated Neutral at Credit Suisse.

Sourcefire, Inc. (NASDAQ: FIRE) Initiated as Buy at BofA/ML.

Monday's summary...

Stocks fell Monday as worries over Europe's debt crisis again took center stage. But the low volume softened the blow of the selling.


The S&P 500 lost 1% and the Nasdaq 0.8%. Hurt largely by financials, the NYSE composite dropped 1.1%. The Dow Jones industrial average fell a milder 0.6%, thanks in part to Boeing's (BA) 1.5% gain. The aerospace giant won a record $18 billion passenger jet order from Emirates.


Volume fell, even though Veterans Day kept trading light on Friday. In fact, volume was the lowest of the year on both major exchanges. The low trade helped the market avoid another distribution day, which would signal more institutional selling than has already occurred in recent weeks.

Headlines out of Europe have helped and hurt the market. On Monday, there was a round of bad news. Yields on five-year Italian bonds spiked to new euro-era highs, while 10-year bonds rose to nearly 7%. Spanish bond yields also rose.

German Chancellor Angela Merkel said that Europe is facing its toughest challenge since World War II. Industrial output in the euro zone fell 2% in September — the most since early 2009.

The rocky environment has led to a mixed market and tough trading conditions. The number of distribution days on the market is relatively high. But leading stocks continue to act well. Many leaders from various industries have staged breakouts.

Tibco Software (TIBX) joined the club Monday. It cleared a cup-with-handle base. The stock closed off its session high, but still above the 29.66 buy point.

VMware (VMW) cleared a tight trading area in heavy volume Monday. The stock is shaping a base with a 111.53 buy point. VMware's Relative Strength line is at a new high.

Alexion Pharmaceuticals (ALXN) found support at its 50-day moving average in the heaviest volume in more than a month. The stock breached the line last week, but only moderately and in light volume.

Monday, November 14, 2011

Lowe's losing business to Home Depot...

Lowe's Cos Inc (LOW). The company saw its quarterly profit fall more than 40 percent as the home improvement retailer keeps losing business to market leader Home Depot Inc (HD). For the third quarter, it earned $225 million, or 18 cents a share, compared with $404 million, or 29 cents a share last year. Sales increased 2.3 percent to $11.9 billion. 

Friday's recap...

Stocks jogged ahead Friday in quiet trade, with several indexes erasing all of the week's losses.

The S&P 500 and the NYSE composite added 1.9% and 2.1%, respectively. The Nasdaq tacked on 2%. The Dow rose 2.2% as all 30 components rose. The average IBD 50 stock was up 2.2%.Volume fell sharply across the board.

With Veterans Day falling on a Friday, it's reasonable to assume some fund managers started the weekend early, resulting in less trading. The bond market was closed Friday.

The market remains a mixed bag — in an uptrend but under pressure. With only seven weeks of trade left this year, the time to redeem this stingy year is running out.

On the plus side, the indexes have recovered nicely from the year's lows on Oct. 4. The Nasdaq rose as much as 19.8% from the low and has given back only a few percentage points.

More breakouts among top-rated stocks have appeared since the Oct. 12 follow-through day.

Friday, November 11, 2011

Consumer Sentiment better than expected...

 November Reuters/UofM Consumer Sentiment: 64.2 preliminary vs. 61.3 expected and 60.9 in October. Expectations 51.8 vs. 47 in October. Current conditions 75.1 vs. 73.8 in October.

Disney releases strong results...

Walt Disney Co. (DIS). The company unveiled strong results that trumped Wall Street's expectations as advertisers spent more at cable networks like ESPN and consumers kept going to theme parks despite a rough economy. It reported a better-than-expected 7 percent gain in fiscal fourth-quarter revenue and net income rose 30 percent to $1.1 billion. Earnings per share came in at 58 cents.

Thursday's recap...

Stocks tried to regain lost ground from Wednesday's wild sell-off, but weren't able to make much progress Thursday.

The S&P 500 and the NYSE composite rose 0.9% and 1%, respectively, while staying within the previous day's trading range. The two indexes took back less than a fourth of Wednesday's massive loss.

Meanwhile, the Nasdaq edged up 0.1%. The IBD 50's median move was a 0.2% gain.

Volume fell across the board.

The Nasdaq appeared to find support at the 2600 level, which was one of the few positive technical take-aways from the session. The composite has gotten fairly consistent support in that area, which had served as resistance in September and part of October.

Other factors made it hard to see a clear message in Thursday's trading.

Winners led losers by a 7-3 ratio on the NYSE and by 5-3 on the Nasdaq. But new lows outnumbered new highs by 32 to 17 on the NYSE and 49 to 10 on the Nasdaq.

Declining volume and the Nasdaq's inability to rally with the other indexes were negatives. But all the indexes closed high in the day's range, a plus.

A few leaders stirred.

Software maker SolarWinds (SWI) advanced to a new high, up 3% in 75% faster trade. The stock has been a leader since gapping up Oct. 27. The Austin, Texas-based company's stock is now 18% past a 25.72 buy point.

Advance Auto Parts (AAP) rose almost 5% in more than triple its usual volume after topping estimates on EPS and sales. The stock is about 4% past a 67.03 buy point in a first-stage base.

On the downside, Apple (AAPL) lost 2.5% in 30% faster trade as it sliced under its 50-day line. The stock had been getting support at that key level the past few weeks.

Market watchers tied the loss to Cleveland Research's reduced estimate on iPad shipments and on S&P Capital IQ's downgrade from strong buy to buy.

However, there's another explanation. Apple began the day with an Accumulation/Distribution Rating of D-, which points to institutional selling. Fund managers were already selling before the news from analysts. The A/D Rating was at E at the end of the day.

Top-rated stocks have had some challenges in this choppy market.

In the four weeks since the market flashed a follow-through day Oct. 12, dozens of stocks have broken out. Some have made progress. But nine triggered the 8% sell rule after breakouts. They are Thoratec (THOR), World Fuel Services (INT), Concho Resources (CXO), IntercontinentalExchange (ICE), ARM Holdings (ARMH), Herbalife (HLF), FEI Co. (FEIC), Fusion-io (FIO) and Opnet Technologies (OPNT).

Some have bounced back to reduce their losses. Others have gotten no better.

Thursday, November 10, 2011

At 11:30 markets are mixed...

Stocks seem very indecisive here as trtaders try to guess the direction of the next move.

Dow +76
Nas +1
S&P +6 to 1234

Just waiting for the next shoe to drop.

at 10:30 am....

Stocks are giving back earlier gains...and it is starting to look like traders are turning bearish...

Dow +36
Nas -14
S&P +1

Not good, considering the open we had...

Today's Upgrades and Downgrades..

These are some of Thursday’s top analyst upgrades, downgrades, and initiations seen from Wall Street research calls.

Advance Auto Parts. Inc. (NYSE: AAP) cut to Neutral at Credit Suisse.

Amazon.com Inc. (NASDAQ: AMZN) added to Strong Sell List at Zacks.

Anheuser-Busch InBev (NYSE: BUD) Cut to Neutral at UBS.

Carbonite, Inc. (NASDAQ: CARB) Reiterated Buy with $16 target at Canaccord Genuity.

Cisco Systems Inc. (NASDAQ: CSCO) Raised to Buy at Deutsche Bank; Raised to Buy at Citigroup; Target raised to $26 from $25 at Credit Suisse.

Computer Sciences Corporation (NYSE: CSC) Cut to Underweight at JPMorgan.

Dean Foods Company (NYSE: DF) Cut to Sell at S&P Capital IQ (late-Wednesday); Maintained Buy at Bof A/ML.

Enterprise Products Partners (NYSE: EPD) named Bull of the Day at Zacks.

Hospira, Inc. (NYSE: HSP) named Bear of the Day at Zacks.

Kraft Foods Inc. (NYSE: KFT) Reiterated Buy with $40 target at Argus.

Logitech International SA (NASDAQ: LOGI) Raised to Hold at S&P Capital IQ (late-Wednesday).

Nokia Corporation (NYSE: NOK) maintained Hold with $7.50 target at Canaccord Genuity.

PG&E Corporation (NYSE: PCG) cut to Neutral at Credit Suisse.

SandRidge Energy, Inc. (NYSE: SD) Cut to Neutral at Goldman Sachs.

Spreadtrum Communications Inc. (NASDAQ: SPRD) Reiterated Buy and raised estimates at Canaccord Genuity.

SurModics Inc. (NASDAQ: SRDX) named as Aggressive Growth at Zacks.

Vertex Pharmaceuticals Incorporated (NASDAQ: VRTX) Raised to Equal-Weight at Morgan Stanley.

Green Mountain gets slammed...

Green Mountain Coffee Roasters Inc. (GMCR). The company’s weak quarterly revenue raised fears about the company's growth potential, as sales of its Keurig coffee makers did not rise as much as Wall Street had expected. Fourth-quarter net income was $75.4 million, or 47 cents a share, compared with $27 million, or 20 cents a share, a year earlier. It estimated an adjusted profit of 35-40 cents a share in the first- quarter.


GMCR is down 20 points premarket to $47.  The stock was as high as $115 on September 20.

Cisco beats estimates...

Cisco Systems Inc. (CSCO). The networking equipment maker forecast revenue and earnings above Wall Street expectations as demand from government and enterprises for its network equipment remained resilient despite global economic troubles. It reported adjusted earnings of 43 cents per share for the fiscal first-quarter on revenue of $11.3 billion. It projected a 7 to 8 percent rise in fiscal second-quarter sales, translating to $11.13 billion to $11.2 billion in revenue.

Wednesday's recap...

The Nasdaq plunged 3.9% Wednesday while the NYSE composite slid 4.1%. It was the fifth time in seven sessions so far this month that the Nasdaq has moved up or down at least 1%.The S&P 500 slumped 3.7% and the Russell 2000 caved 4.8%.

Volume grew across the board Wednesday, smearing the Nasdaq with a fifth distribution day and the NYSE with its fourth within the past four weeks. That signals a substantial amount of institutional selling, which can wreck a market rally.

For that reason, the market outlook returns to an uptrend under pressure. In such volatile conditions, it's simply harder to make big money in stocks.

Wednesday's broad market plunge in heavier volume reflected the manic-depressive state of investors. This time they reacted to somber headlines on a European debt and budget saga that has already consumed Portugal, Ireland and Greece, and is now threatening Italy. The No. 3 economy in the EU is struggling to pacify investors as its sovereign debt yields soared past 7%.

The final numbers:

Dow -387
Nas -105
S&P -46 to 1229

Here is the intraday chart:

Wednesday, November 9, 2011

Volatility Index shoots higher....

With all 30 Dow stocks flashing red, it's not a surprise the VIX is rocketing higher, up 8.61 to 36.09, on European fears. The market's fear gauge hasn't fallen below the psychologically-important 20 mark since before S&P downgraded the U.S. as volume stays high for short-term puts betting against a market recovery.

Joe Frazier dies...

Smokin' Joe Frazier died yesterday....one of my favorite all-time athletes.  Here is a fitting tribute.


http://espn.go.com/boxing/story/_/id/7206261/joe-frazier-former-heavyweight-champion-dead-67

Stocks reporting after the close...

Pegasystems (PEGA)
Opnet (OPNT)
Cisco Systems (CSCO)
Mako Surgical (MAKO)
Green Mountain Coffee (GMCR)
Fleetcor (FLT)

At 1 pm....

Stocks are still lower.

Dow -239
Nas -61
S&P -28 to 1247

Not much has changed in the last couple of hours....stocks still near their lows of the day.

Banks seem to be selling off more than any other groups. 

Universal Display up on earnings and revenue growth....

Universal Display (PANL) is up 3.00 to 52.45 after beating Q3 estimates, and guiding for Q4 revenue of $15.4M-$19.4M ($15.3M consensus). During its Q3 CC, management reiterated prior comments about a recent German patent ruling being in its favor (though the details make that debatable), and added that its licensing deal with Samsung involves bi-annual fixed payments.

I don't like the last revelation that the Samsung deal is FIXED.  Not exactly as positive as if the deal would have been royalties based on sales.

At 10:45 am...

Stocks are broadly lower, as focus shifts to Italy....

Dow -306
Nas -75
S&P -34 to 1241

These selloffs are getting a little old.  Not sure they will keep stocks lower as we move into the afternoon, though.

Today's upgrades and downgrades...

These are some of Wednesday’s top analyst upgrades, downgrades, and initiations seen from Wall Street research calls.

Alaska Communications Systems Group Inc. (NASDAQ: ALSK) Cut to Underperform at BofA/ML.

Autodesk Inc. (NASDAQ: ADSK) Cut to Neutral at BofA/ML.

Avon Products, Inc. (NYSE: AVP) cut to Underperform as Bear of the Day at Zacks.

Blue Nile Inc. (NASDAQ: NILE) Cut to Sell at Deutsche Bank.

China Automotive Systems Inc. (NASDAQ: CAAS) Cut to Neutral at Piper Jaffray.

DreamWorks Animation SKG Inc. (NYSE: DWA) Cut to Sell at Janney.

Equity Residential (NYSE: EQR) Raised to Buy at Argus.

H&R Block, Inc. (NYSE: HRB) Raised to Outperform at Oppenheimer.

Priceline.com Inc. (NASDAQ: PCLN) Cut to Hold at S&P Capital IQ (late-Tuesday).

Rite Aid Corporation (NYSE: RAD) Raised to Outperform at Credit Suisse.

Rovi Corporation (NASDAQ: ROVI) has seen at least three downgrades: Collins Stewart, CLSA, Brean Murray.

Spectrum Pharmaceuticals, Inc. (NASDAQ: SPPI) named Momentum stock of the day at Zacks.

Textainer Group Holdings Limited (NYSE: TGH) named Value stock of the day at Zacks.

Walgreen Co. (NYSE: WAG) Cut to Neutral at Credit Suisse.

The Washington Post Co. (NYSE: WPO) named Bull of the Day at Zacks.

ROVI disappoints...

Shares of electronic television programming guide vendor Rovi are down sharply on a disappointing financial outlook.

For Q3, the company posted revenue of $196.5 million, up from $138 million a year ago, but a bit below the Street consensus at $197.9 million. Pro forma profits of 63 cents a share topped the Street consensus at 61 cents.

The issue for the stock was the guidance the company provided on the call. For starters, the company now sees full year results at the lower end of its previous guidance ranges of revenues of $770 million to $810 million, and profits of $2.35 to $2.60. Rovi also said on its conference call that it sees revenue in 2012 increasing in the mid-to-high single digit range, well below the 15.5% growth that the Street has been forecasting.

Activision losing subscribers...

Activision Blizzard (ATVI). The video games publisher revealed it has lost almost a million users for its "World of Warcraft" cash cow, dampening enthusiasm for its blockbuster "Call of Duty" franchise. It now expects earnings per share of 85 cents on revenue of $4.25 billion for 2011. Adjusted for revenue from online games, it posted earnings per share of 7 cents, which beat Wall Street's expectations of 2 cents per share.

This may be a great short right here...

Futures point to lower open...

U.S. stock index futures pointed to a lower open on Wall Street Wednesday as investors still watched Europe with caution after Italian Prime Minister Silvio Berlusconi announced he would step down once a series of austerity measures had been put in place.

The austerity program could in theory be completed by Christmas, and observers suggested a government of technocrats could run the country until scheduled elections in 2013, although Berlusconi himself suggested Tuesday night that new elections would be preferable.

The yield on Italian sovereign debt, however, rose as high as 7 percent in morning trade after LCH.Clearnet raised the initial margin call applied to Italian debt by between 3.5 and 5 percentage points across all maturities of BTP and inflation-linked BTP bonds.

That led European markets, which had opened the day higher on the announcement of the Italian premier’s resignation, into negative territory.

The FTSEurofirst 300 index of top European shares fell 1.4 percent at 969.84 points, reversing Tuesday's 0.9 percent rise.

Yesterday's wrap up from IBD...

Stocks closed with solid gains and near session highs Tuesday after seesaw trading linked to Italy's debt drama.  The Nasdaq and S&P 500 tacked on 1.2%, after trading as much as 0.5% lower at midday. The NYSE composite rose 1.1%.  Volume increased across the board from Monday's levels.

The market has bounced back since the sell-off of Oct. 31-Nov. 1. Two up days in that span of time came in higher volume. For the fifth straight day, indexes closed near session highs.

Meanwhile, leading stocks have displayed encouraging action. Sell signals remain rare and more breakouts are occurring.

The positive tone indicates that the pressure the market had faced recently has dissipated and its uptrend is back to normal.

Stocks started out higher, but dropped into the red around midday as a key vote in debt-wracked Italy sent a mixed signal. Italian Prime Minister Silvio Berlusconi lost his parliamentary majority, yet he still managed to win a key budget vote.

It initially wasn't clear what would happen to Berlusconi. But he then promised to resign after Italian lawmakers approve new austerity measures. Once the news hit the wires, U.S. stocks went into the black and to new session highs.

The S&P 500 finished above its 200-day moving average, after closing below that long-term support level for six straight days.

Advancers easily beat out decliners on both the Nasdaq and NYSE. But while new 52-week highs outnumbered new lows Tuesday on the NYSE, slightly more stocks made new lows on the Nasdaq than new highs.

Top-rated stocks largely acted well, with several breaking out.

Cardtronics (CATM) jumped 8% in big trade, clearing a 25.95 handle buy point in the wake of a strong quarterly earnings report late Monday. TransDigm Group (TDG) rose 4% and flew past a 95.14 buy point from a cup without handle.

Signet Jewelers (SIG) climbed 8% in huge volume, topping a 45.60 handle entry. Late Monday, S&P said Signet will join the S&P MidCap 400 index. Priceline.com (PCLN) surged 9%, closing above an area of resistance around 550.

On the downside, Triumph Group (TGI) slid 2% in fast trade, though it finished near its session high. Before the opening bell, it announced a public offering of 5 million shares.

After hours, Copa Holdings (CPA) reported third-quarter earnings that beat views. The stock, which has been working on a new base, fell 4% in strong volume during the regular session.

U.S. economic news was light Tuesday and mostly overshadowed by the latest euro zone headlines. A small-business optimism index edged up in October.

Sorry...had to take care of some pressing things yesterday...

but I'm back today...

Monday, November 7, 2011

Last update of the day...

I have to leave the office...

Never short a dull market!!!  That's an old Wall Street adage.  Well, this might be the dullest day in a long time for this market....and sure enough, stocks are slowly starting to strengthen...

Dow -3
Nas -8
S&P unch

We might see a nice rally here in the last two hours...

Universal Display gives back Friday's gains...

Universal Display (PANL -10.7%) gives back Friday's gains following a downbeat note from Canaccord. The firm throws cold water on hopes Apple will use Universal's OLED display technology (the result of a recent patent filing) in the near-term, and also expresses concerns about a European patent license hearing.


PANL announces earnings after the bell on Tuesday...so we'll know very quickly if Cannacord knows what they are talking about.  The revenue growth on this stock is special...

25-34 year olds staying at home...

Though it's not yet a major economic indicator, it's a sign of the times that the percentage of 25-34 year olds living with their parents has skyrocketed since 2008 with no signs of tailing off. The stay-at-home chart shows 14.2% of the nation's 42M people in the age group are opting to live at home, up from 10.6% prior to the economic downturn.

Rosetta Stones continues to fall...

Rosetta Stone (RST -10.5%) extends its losses from Friday after reporting a disappointing Q3 on weak bookings. The stock has netted a 32% loss over just the past two sessions, and is down over 70% since hitting its 52-week high in November of last year.

Barnes and Noble unveils latest Nook reader...

The market for tablets based on Google’s (GOOG) “Android” software has a new contestant, the “Nook Tablet” from Barnes & Noble (BKS), announced this morning, as widely expected was unveiled, selling at $249, as Amazon.com’s (AMZN) “Kindle Fire” tablet gets ready to go on sale in a week from now.

The device can be pre-ordered now, and will be available November 18th, three days after the Fire ships.

The Nook Tablet Is the same 8.1-inch height as B&N’s existing “Nook Color” reader, also based on Android, with the same 16-million color, 1024 x 600 pixel resolution. And like the Nook Color, it has a WiFi connection, no 3G cellular option. (Amazon’s Fire also dropped the option of a 3G connection. Amazon’s non-Android e-readers, the Kindle Touch and Kindle Keyboard, feature 3G connections for $149 or $139.)

However, the Tablet also features a microphone, a 1-gigahertz Texas Instruments (TXN) “OMAP” microprocessor, faster than the Color’s 800 megahertz part, and a gigabyte of RAM, double the Color’s spec.

B&N said the Tablet will get 11.5 hours of reading time, better than the 8 hours quoted for the Color.

Featuring 16-gigabytes of memory, the Nook Tablet is $50 more than Amazon’s Fire, which contains only 8 gigs. The Tablet has an SD card slot to expand the memory count, whereas Amazon urges customers to “forget the memory,” as Amazon offers to store all content purchased with Amazon “in the cloud,” on Amazon servers.

The price of the Color was dropped to $199 from $249, and B&N’s black-and-white e-reader, the “Nook Simple Touch,” was cut from $139 to $99. That device matches the price of the cheaper version of Amazon’s Kindle Touch.

Shares of Barnes & Noble are down a penny at $11.60. Shares of Amazon.com are down $1.01, or half a percent, at $215.47.

Volume has dried up....

And stocks seem to have no direction.

Dow -52
Nas -26
S&P -6

Gold and silver are up slightly. Everything else is mixed.

General Dynamics buys Force Protection...

General Dynamics (GD). The defense contractor said it agreed to acquire smaller rival Force Protection Inc (FRPT) for $360 million. The offer price of $5.52 a share is 31 percent more than Force Protection shares' Friday closing price of $4.21.

MF Global CEO Jon Corzine quits as big bet fails...

Jon Corzine, one of Wall Street's best-known stars, stepped down as MF Global Holdings Ltd's chairman and chief executive after his bets on European debt drove the futures brokerage into bankruptcy.

Word is they were comingling clients funds with their own...and that they were 33-1 leveraged.

Dish Network Q3 profit misses on subscriber losses...

Satellite television provider's third-quarter profit missed estimates on deeper-than-anticipated subscriber losses as customers canceled their service or switched to rivals.

The second-largest U.S. satellite TV provider's third-quarter profit missed estimates on deeper-than-anticipated subscriber losses as customers canceled their service or switched to rivals. It posted earnings of $186 million, or 71 cents per share, which missed Wall Street expectations of 73 cents, according to Thomson Reuters I/B/E/S.

No surprise here...

Today's Upgrades and Downgrades...

These are some of Monday’s top analyst upgrades, downgrades, and initiations seen from Wall Street research calls.

Alcatel-Lucent SA (NYSE: ALU) Cut to Sell at Citigroup; Cut estimates and target at Argus.

American International Group Inc. (NYSE: AIG) named as Bear of the Day at Zacks.

Delek US Holdings, Inc. (NYSE: DK) named value stock of the day at Zacks.

Groupon, Inc. (NASDAQ: GRPN) Started as Buy at Benchmark.

The Home Depot Inc. (NYSE: HD) Raised to Outperform at RBC.

ING Groep NV (NYSE: ING) Cut to Hold at Soc-Gen.

Kellogg Co. (NYSE: K) Cut to Market Perform at William Blair.

Medivation, Inc. (NASDAQ: MDVN) Raised to Outperform as Bull of the Day at Zacks.

Pier 1 Imports, Inc. (NYSE: PIR) Started as Outperform at Wells Fargo.

Quest Diagnostics Inc. (NYSE: DGX) Raised to Outperform at RBC.

Toll Brothers Inc. (NYSE: TOL) Raised to Buy at Citigroup.

Veolia Environnement S.A. (NYSE: VE) Cut to Underweight at JPMorgan.

VeriFone Systems, Inc (NYSE: PAY) Started as Buy at Citigroup.

Western Gas Partners. L.P. (NYSE: WES) Raised to Outperform at Credit Suisse.

YRC Worldwide. Inc. (NASDAQ: YRCW) Maintained Underperform and target cut to $0.05 at Credit Suisse; maintained neutral with losing share at Zacks.

Rally starting to fade...

Well, looks like the buying has dried up for now, as stocks sink back to even on the day.

Dow +10
Nas -10
S&P unch at 1252

Stocks are trading entirely on their own individual stories.

Stocks open higher....

Shaking off the Italian story, stocks are breaking higher out of the gate.

Dow +56
Nas +6
S&P +5 to 1258

Looks like the focus is shifting over to the U.S. and our company earnings.

Good morning...

Stock index futures are pointing to a slightly weaker open for Wall Street on Monday as investors remained uncertain about the outcome of a deal made by Greek politicians to approve an international bailout for Greece and grew increasingly worried about Italy’s public finances and political instability. 

Italian bond yields rose to new euro era highs on Monday as nervousness over a key parliamentary vote in the country on Tuesday mounts.

Greek Prime Minister George Papandreou sealed a deal with the opposition on a crisis coalition to approve an international bailout, but details remain thin despite an EU ultimatum for Athens to get serious about tackling its problems.

Euro zone finance ministers meet in Brussels on Monday for a regular, scheduled meeting, but are likely to discuss the ongoing turmoil in the region.

Sunday, November 6, 2011

Investor's Business Daily's top 10 stocks....

Here is the latest top 10 stocks from IBD:

1. Ulta Salon & Cosmetics (ULTA)
2. Lulumon Athletica (LULU)
3. Alexion Pharmaceuticals (ALXN)
4. Rangold Resources (GOLD)
5. Questcor Pharmaceutical (QCOR)
6. Intuitive Surgical (ISRG)
7. Mastercard (MA)
8. Herbalife (HLF)
9. Yamana Gold (AUY)
10. Dollar Tree (DLTR)

Friday, November 4, 2011

Market closes lower, but mixed...

Even though the averages were lower, there were some pockets of strength out there.

Dow -61 to 11983
Nas -11 to 2686
S&P -7 to 1253

A few stocks outperformed:

Wellcare +1.10 to 54.89
Allscripts +1.22 to 20.79
Green Mountain Coffee +3.77 to 70.67
US Steel +1.37 to 27.92
Cree +2.69 to 30.57
FFive Networks +2.68 to 109.62
Starbucks +2.79 to 44.19
Universal Display +7.56 to 51.97
Groupon +6.11 to 26.11
Ulta Salon & Cosmetics +2.98 to 74.24

Should be another interesting weekend.  Have a good one!!!

Starbucks hits new highs...

Starbucks (SBUX) is hitting new highs as the coffee chain reported third-quarter earnings that squeaked by Wall Street views while revenue cleared estimates by a healthy margin.

Starbucks also raised its dividend 31% and approved a 20 million share buyback program. The stock had formed a three-weeks tight pattern after retaking a 39.49 buy point in a cup-with-handle base. The stock triggered the 8% sell rule following its initial move above that buy point.

The stock is up 1.47 to 43.98 today:

Here's a new stock to watch...

Fusion-io (FIO +7.4%) shares spike after CEO David Flynn tells CNBC the "surface hasn't even been scratched" in market penetration for the company's "revolutionizing" data storage, adding that Facebook and Apple (APPL) are part of its diversified customer base. This week, FIO reported quarterly results that beat estimates and raised its full-year revenue outlook.


Here's the chart since the stock went public back in June:

Jeffries discloses European positions...

Jefferies (JEF +0.7%) rises slightly after fully disclosing its exposure to PIIGS sovereign debt; the company claims it has a net long cash position of just $91M, and a $100M short futures position. The bulk of Jefferies long and short investments in the space involve Italian debt. However, shares are still down 18% on the week.

EU Debt crisis news...

While you were at lunch, the EU debt crisis was again solved after a top PASOK MP turns around and indicates he will vote "yes" in a confidence measure for PM Papandreou. A positive outcome means the stage is set for a coalition government to be formed as early as Monday, with snap elections avoided. The euro jumps 50 pips to $1.379. The DJIA sheds 75 points of its loss.

October Fund Flows...

October fund-flow data shows investors around the world re-embraced risk in a big way; emerging markets saw $3.5B worth of inflows, while money-market funds saw outflows of $25B. Nonetheless, investors continued to be partial to precious metals, which saw inflows of $493M.

Stocks lower on European concerns...

Well, I was hoping we were breaking away from the reliance on the European markets, but I guess not...at least not yet.

Dow -148
Nas -26
S&P -15

Groupon is currenlty up 9.25 to 29.25...the stock was priced at 20.00 on its IPO.

S&P may downgrade Sony...

S&P places Sony (SNE -2.8%) on a credit watch for a possible downgrade after the bleeding (I, II) continues at the company. "The likelihood of Sony’s weak earnings persisting has increased as there are no signs of a halt to the deterioration in the earnings of the company’s core flat-panel TV business."

Europe closes lower...

European shares close sharply lower for the day and the week, giving back some of the major gains of the past month. Stoxx 50 -2.4% for the day, -3.9% for the week. Germany -2.6%, France -2.1%, Italy -2.5%, Spain -1.4%, U.K. -0.2%. Euro -0.6% at $1.3745.

BAC to issue more stock...

Bank of America’s (BAC) plan to issue common stock to raise funds probably will dilute shareholders, but the bigger issue may be a loss of credibility. The move "would have no material impact on long-term EPS," Mike Mayo says, but it "reflects poorly on management who were previously adamant that BAC did not need to raise any additional common capital."

BAC is trading down 0.31 to 6.60

Valero buyout rumors are out there...

Shares of Valero Energy (VLO) move higher on renewed speculation that the company is a target for a takeover. Volatility has surged in the stock over the past week on rumors of a bidding war building amongst its bigger rivals.

Today's Upgrades and Downgrades...

These are some of Friday’s top analyst upgrades, downgrades, and initiations seen from Wall Street research calls.

Big Lots Inc. (NYSE: BIG) Raised to Outperform at Wedbush.

Chico’s FAS Inc. (NYSE: CHS) Cut to Neutral at Citigroup.

Delta Air Lines (NYSE: DAL) Raised to Outperform as Bull of the Day at Zacks.

Energy Recovery Inc. (NASDAQ: ERII) Started as Neutral at Credit Suisse.

PPG Industries, Inc. (NYSE: PPG) named as Value stock of the Day at Zacks.

Plexus Corporation (NASDAQ: PLXS) named Bear of the Day at Zacks.

Randgold Resources Limited (NASDAQ: GOLD) Cut to Hold at Canaccord Genuity.

Royal Gold, Inc. (NASDAQ: RGLD) Cut to Sector Perform at National Bank.

SandRidge Energy, Inc. (NYSE: SD) Cut to Hold at Stifel Nicolaus.

Stanley Black & Decker Inc. (NYSE: SWK) Raised to Buy at Argus.

SunPower Corporation (NASDAQ: SPWRA) Cut to Underperform at Macquarie.

Transocean Ltd. (NYSE: RIG) Cut to Underperform at Macquarie.

Trina Solar Limited (NYSE: TSL) Cut to Neutral at Macquarie.

Vical Inc. (NASDAQ: VICL) Started as Outperform with $7 target at Credit Suisse.

VIVUS, Inc. (NASDAQ: VVUS) Started as Outperform with $15 target at Credit Suisse.

YRC Worldwide Inc. (NASDAQ: YRCW) Raised to Hold fro Sell at Stifel Nicolaus.

11:45 am update....

Stocks are lower this morning as traders turned bearish after the jobs release earlier.  There are some pockets of strength though....but most of those are individual stories.

Dow -148
Nas -28
S&P -17 to 1244

CREE pops on China news...

Shares of LED lighting leader Cree (CREE +6.3%) pop on an AP report that China will phase out incandescent light bulbs within five years. China will ban imports and sales of 100-watt and higher incandescent bulbs from Oct. 1, 2012, the country's main planning agency said.

Chesapeak blows out estimates...

Chesapeake Energy (CHK): Q3 EPS of $0.72 beats by $0.06. Revenue of $4B (+54% Y/Y) beats by $860M.

Q3 blows out estimates on all fronts as the company reports a 54% jump in revenue Y/Y, primarily due to windfall profits from hedging operations and a 9% jump in liquids production. Separately, the company says it's selling a 25% stake in a portion of its Utica Shale play - 650K net acres - in a joint venture to undisclosed buyers for $3.4B.

Non Farm Payrolls number out...

Stock index futures show little reaction as the Non Farm Payrolls report comes in close to inline, but sees previous months' jobs revised higher by 55K. S&P 500 flat after being down 3/4 of a percent before the report.

Groupon comes public at $20...

Groupon (GRPN) officially hits the NASDAQ screen, quoted at $20.00, valuing the company at $12.65B. This is the largest IPO since Google.

BI's cheat sheet on the Groupon (GRPN) IPO declares the controversial daily deals giant "a real business" that "will likely be nicely profitable" long-term, but also calls its valuation "very expensive," and raises concerns about decelerating growth and possible corporate governance issues.

New Nook tablet due out on Monday...

Barnes & Noble's (BKS) new Nook tablet debuts Monday with a $249 price tag - marking a $50 premium over Amazon's (AMZN) much-anticipated Kindle Fire. With both devices running off of Google's Android OS and offering users similar basic features, Barnes & Noble will have to drill home to customers the faster processor and increased memory is worth the extra $50 in order to land its e-reader on holiday shopping lists.

Good morning...

US stock index futures are pointing to a lower open on Wall Street Friday as the euro zone debt crisis dominated a meeting of world leaders at the G20 Summit in France and investors nervously awaited critical non-farm payrolls data for signs of economic recovery.

Greece also dominated the thoughts of world leaders as Greek Prime Minister George Papandreou faces a confidence vote in Parliament later today that could determine whether his country will stay in the euro zone or leave the single currency and default on its debts.

Thursday, November 3, 2011

Stocks close at session highs....

A significant day for stocks as it looks like we may be moving past the Greek and Euro problems.  It was obvious that real money started coming in as the day wore on.  There are way too many funds that are underinvested in stocks right now.  Those guys cannot afford to miss any yearend rallies...so they MUST put money to work.  We need to see a follow thru tomorrow, but I really like the way we traded today.

Dow +208
Nas +57
S&P +23 to 1261

Groupon IPO starts trading tomorrow...

Online coupon purveyor Groupon (GRPN) is worth more than half the S&P 500 index, including long-running national brands like Whole Foods Market and Dow member Alcoa, according to latest IPO valuation estimation. Traders doubt it belongs in such established company.

The IPO could price $3 above the top of the $16 to $18 range Thursday, according to a CNBC report (link to Kayla’s story), giving it a value of as much as $13 billion, more than the market capitalization of 285 members in the U.S. equity benchmark.

“The current valuations for Groupon are ludicrous,” said Jim Iuorio, managing director for TJM Institutional Services. “The major mistake that the market is making is using Facebook as proxy in helping establish valuations. Groupon has no community aspect to it and therefore users are free to leave and shop for the best deal.”

Maybe these are just the rants of jealous investors cut out of the new issue because this kind of talk has yet to dent demand for the 3-year old daily deals site. All indications are that the roadshow by chief executive Andrew Mason has been well received by investors lucky enough to get their piece.

Yet many traders point out that this could be folks eager to flip the stock quickly over the short term on the initial euphoria that has been a trademark of some of the recent tech and social media IPOs.

For example, online business networking site LinkedIn (LNKD) doubled on the first day of trading in May, but its shares are off about 10 percent since then. Music site Pandora jumped 9 percent during its first day of trading in June, but now trades below its $16 IPO price.

“Caveat emptor if you are stupid enough to hold this one for more than a flip,” said Jon Najarian, co-founder of TradeMonster.com.

Questions about its accounting practices, as well as low barriers to entry for competitors, have also given investors with a long-term outlook pause.

Still, for the bears, there’s a catch. Groupon is selling very few shares to the public. So few, that the offering will represent less than five percent of the float. This makes the shares difficult to borrow in order to bet against the company through a short position.

“It seems like an easy short at the proposed market cap, however there are two very important issues that can not be overlooked: the small float makes it very dangerous to short and Google tried to buy them recently,” said Michael Murphy of Rosecliff Capital. “As a rule, Google does not make stupid or over-priced acquisitions.”

At 3 pm....

Stocks are holding their gains and banks are continuing to work higher.

Dow +192
Nas +50
S&P +20 to 1258

Airlines try to raise prices again...

US Airways (LCC) and Delta Air Lines (DAL) are raising fares on many U.S. flights by up to $10 per round trip, in the latest attempt by airlines to boost revenue during a normally slow time of year for travel. Prices were raised successfully two weeks ago, but another fare hike last week fizzled and was eventually canceled.

Stocks reporting before the bell tomorrow...

Ultra Petroleum (UPL)
Warner Chilcott (WCRX)
Washington Post (WPO)
Treehouse Foods (THS)

Stocks reporting after the close today...

Skyworks (SWKS)
Allscripts (MDRX)
Chesapeake Energy (CHK)
Hansen Natural (HANS)
First Solar (FSLR)
Bebe Stores (BEBE)
Starbucks (SBUX)
Linked In (LNKD)
Genworth (GNW)

Stocks are still climbing....

Stocks are looking strong here, as it looks like we are shaking off the Greek news and our market's ties to every move of the Euro.

Dow +162
Nas +41
S&P +17 to 1254

Banks are starting to strengthen which is a very good sign.  On Friday, the S&P got as high as 1284 before selling off on Monday and Tuesday.  A move back above that level would represent a new breakout and would surely put us back in rally mode.

Allscripts to report after the close today...

Allscripts Healthcare Solutions (MDRX) is set to release Q3 results after the close today, and investors are no doubt hoping it can break the bad streak for medical-software stocks this earnings season.  Analysts polled by Thomson Reuters expect Allscripts (MDRX) to report profit of 22 cents a share, up 16% from a year ago. Sales are forecast to rise 51% to $364.9 million.

Those are good numbers, but industry watchers have reason to be nervous after Allscripts' rivals' reports. Quality Systems (QSII) and Computer Programs & Systems (CPSI) both missed estimates last week and were punished harshly on the stock market. Athenahealth (ATHN) and Cerner (CERN) met expectations and guided in-line, but the stocks have still ticked downward.

The group might have been suffering from high expectations. It's been a stock-market darling for the last couple of years, ever since President Obama's health care package promised serious money for physicians to upgrade to electronic health records and other forms of computerization.

Here is the long term chart going back to 2004:


Icahn increases stake in Navistar...

Carl Icahn just bought another piece of Navistar (NAV) stock, boosting his stake in the commercial trucking company to 9.99%, according to an SEC filing. Icahn recently made large investments in both Navistar and Oshkosh (OSK), another trucking company, leading to speculation that he wants to combine the two.

Today's Upgrades and Downgrades...

These are some of Thursday’s top analyst upgrades, downgrades, and initiations seen from Wall Street research calls.

Annaly Capital Management, Inc. (NYSE: NLY) Raised to Outperform at Wells Fargo.

Boston Scientific Corp. (NYSE: BSX) Started as Outperform at Credit Suisse.

Career Education Corp. (NASDAQ: CECO) Cut to Underperform at BofA/ML.

Clorox Corp. (NYSE: CLX) Cut to Underperform at BofA/ML.

CNH Global N.V. (NYSE: CNH) named as Value stock of the day at Zacks.

Dendreon Corporation (NASDAQ: DNDN) Cut to Neutral at Goldman Sachs.

Freeport-McMoRan Copper & Gold Inc. (NYSE: FCX) Started as Overweight at Barclays.

Hexcel Corporation (NYSE: HXL) Cut to Neutral at BofA/ML.

Hospira Inc. (NYSE: HSP) cut to Underperform ar Bear of the Day at Zacks.

Medtronic Inc. (NYSE: MDT) Started as Outperform at Credit Suisse.

Rockwell Collins Inc. (NYSE: COL) Cut to Underperform at BofA/ML.

Sierra Wireless Inc. (NASDAQ: SWIR) downgraded at Raymond James and Morgan Keegan.

St. Jude Medical (NYSE: STJ) Started as Neutral at Credit Suisse.

Sun Life Financial Inc. (NYSE: SLF) Cut to Underperform at Credit Suisse.

Teva Pharmaceutical Industries Limited (NASDAQ: TEVA) Raised to Overweight at Morgan Stanley.

Tidewater Inc. (NYSE: TDW) Cut to Hold at Argus.

Wyndam Worldwide (NYSE: WYN) named Bull of the Day at Zacks.

At 11:00 am...

Stocks are behaving nicely and appear to have digested the lastest in the Greek saga.

Dow +84
Nas +16
S&P +6 to 1244

Leaders:

Cummins Inc. (CMI) +3.18 to 101.95
IBM +2.37 to 186.30
Mercado Libre (MELI) +21.46 to 84.74
Strayer (STRA) +9.17 to 87.83
SXC Health (SXCI) +2.22 to 46.71
Netflix (NFLX) +1.80 to 85.20

Banks and Oils are weak...Gold and Silver are up.

Netflix looks to be holding up here....

It sure sounds like all the bad news is out on Netflix and may be a time to start adding shares.  Volume is slowing down meaning sellers have possibly been exhausted.

NFLX is currently up 0.80 to 84.17

Here is the daily chart:


Whole Foods misses on Revenues...

Whole Foods Market (WFM): Q4 beats on a per share basis but misses on revenue. Earnings rose 12% Y/Y, with same-store sales up 8.4%. Separately, the company announces a 40% increase to its dividend, amounting to $0.56 per share, and a $200M stock buyback.

WFM stock is holding up OK, currently down 2.20 to 68.41...it could be much worse, but this is a stock funds want to own.

Aeropostle preannounces good earnings...

Aeropostale (ARO) rises 20% after preannouncing FQ3 revenue of $596.5M (-1% Y/Y) and EPS of $0.27-$0.28, well above Street estimates of $574.1M and $0.12. Same-store sales are expected to decline 9%, slightly better than FQ2's 10% drop. The apparel retailer reports earnings on Nov. 30.

ARO is up 2.95 to 17.97 this morning.

Qualcomm jumps after lifting forecast...

Qualcomm Inc. (QCOM). The chipmaker forecast double-digit sales growth this fiscal year, banking on continued strong demand for smartphones and mobile devices as its quarterly results beat Wall Street estimates. For the current quarter, it expects sales to jump 30 percent to 42 percent. It posted fourth quarter net earnings of $1.06 billion, or 0.62 cents per share, compared with $865 million, or 53 cents per share, in the year-ago quarter.


QCOM is currently up 3.70 to 55.87

Dendreon heads lower...

Dendreon Corp. (DNDN). The biotechnology company forecast only modest sales growth for its Provenge prostate cancer vaccine for the next several quarters. It posted a net loss of $147.1 million, or $1.00 per share, compared with a loss of $79.3 million, or 56 cents per share, a year earlier.


DNDN is down 3.63 to 6.83 (34%)

CVS beats expectations...

CVS Caremark Corp. (CVS). The company posted a higher quarterly profit as business improved at its pharmacy benefits management unit, and said this year's profit should come in toward the higher end of its prior forecast. Net income rose to $868 million, or 65 cents per share, from $809 million, or 59 cents per share, a year earlier. It now expects to post adjusted earnings from continuing operations of $2.77 to $2.81 per share this year.


CVS is currently up 1.31 to 37.08

OK...Back in the office...

Stocks are currently mixed as traders are trying to determine the impact of the Greek referendum proposal.

Dow +52
Nas +2
S&P +3

More in a second...

Wednesday, November 2, 2011

Stocks hold gains...

Stocks held their gains this afternoon following the news that Bernanke and crew are on standby to start a QE3 program.  I personally think that is a bad idea, but for today...the market is OK with it.

Dow +178
Nas +33
S&P +19 to 1237

After the bell, a G20 Official was quoted as saying that Greece will be cutoff from any aid until the referendum goes thru...and if the vote denies the proposed aid, then Greece will go bankrupt.  The referendum may possibly take as long as a month before it happens.  Great!!!

Nice news to close the day with...probably will not be received very well overnight...but who knows with this market.

Earnings due tomorrow before the bell...

Earnings due tomorrow:

Apache (APA)
CVS Caremark (CVS)
Duke Energy (DUK)
Kellogg (K)
Strayer Education (STRA)

Earnings due out after the bell...

Companies due to report today:

Polypore (PPO)
Qualcomm (QCOM)
Concho Resources (CXO)
Vulcan Materials (VMC)
Whole Foods (WFM)
Kraft Foods (KFT)
Comscore (SCOR)
Walter Energy (WLT)
Mercado Libre (MELI)
Dendreon (DNDN)
Nutrisystem (NTRI)

Don't get me started on ETFs...

"The market has become one big fat ETF, deal with it," writes Josh Brown, noting the average CBOE Implied Correlation Index has hit a stratospheric 78.21 recently. "It's a binary market - risk-off or risk-on depending on which side of the bed any given finance minister in Brussels wakes up on that morning."

At 2:50 pm....

As Fed Chaiman Bernanke speaks, the market is moving higher.  After the press release, the Dow had fallen back to only up 60 points.

Dow +163
Nas +22
S&P +16 to 1234

House puts freeze on any new wireless taxes...

The House yesterday approved a five-year freeze on any new state and local taxes imposed on cellphones and other wireless services, including wireless broadband access. Wireless customers reportedly now pay 16.3% in taxes and fees, more than double the average rate of 7.4% on other goods and services. A bill still must pass the Senate and be signed by the president.

Have you seen how many taxes are on your cellphone bill???

FOMC makes no new moves, but hints that economy is starting to strengthen...

Fed Open Market Committee: No move on talked-about big buys of mortgage-backed securities. No change to benchmark rate plans (to freeze them near zero until mid-2013). Operation Twist goes on. The lone dissenter this time was Charles Evans, who wanted more accommodation.

Growth "strengthened somewhat" in Q3, but labor market's still weak and unemployment "elevated." Inflation appears to have moderated with energy and some commodities off peaks. No large-scale MBS buys but principal reinvestment will go on. Next up: Bernanke speaks at 2:15 p.m. EDT.

Noon update...

Stocks are holding earlier gains as traders wait for the latest Fed Meeting statement to be read at 12:30 pm.  The market is also accepting of the Greek referendum that has been proposed.

Dow +186
Nas +32
S&P +20 to 1238

All 10 S&P sectors are higher.

Wellcare blows out earnings...

WellCare Health Plans Inc. said Wednesday its third quarter net income more than doubled as Medicare prescription drug premiums boosted revenue and the insurer again raised its 2011 earnings forecast.

The Tampa, Fla., company earned $88.3 million, or $2.03 per share, in the three months that ended Sept. 30. That compares with earnings of $42.9 million, or $1 per share, in last year's quarter.

Stripping out one-time costs, WellCare said it earned $2.15 per share in the third quarter.

Revenue climbed 11 percent to $1.54 billion.

The performance trumped Wall Street expectations. Analysts surveyed by FactSet expected, on average, earnings of $1.31 per share on about $1.5 billion in revenue.

WellCare provides managed care for government-sponsored health plans like Medicare and Medicaid. Its enrollment grew 10 percent to 2.4 million people, compared with the same quarter last year.

WCG is currently up 3.55 to 51.32

This is the stock that dropped from 137 to 20 when the FBI raided its headquarters back in 2007.  Looks like it finally has its troubles behind them.  Here's the long term chart:

PEET reports in-line...

Peet's Coffee & Tea Inc. (PEET) reported third quarter 2011 earnings per share of 28 cents, which surpassed the Zacks Consensus Estimate by a penny. The results were in line with the prior-year period earnings.  Including the anticipated settlement and legal costs of a class action lawsuit of $2.2 million after tax, reported earnings came in at 11 cents per share in the third-quarter of 2011 versus 28 cents.

The company affirms its 2011 earnings will be at the higher end of the previous guidance range of $1.43 to $1.50. In addition, Peet’s expects its 2011 reported earnings to be at the higher end of the $1.27 to $1.34 range, including litigation-related expenses of 16 cents per share.

Further, Peet’s anticipates its 2012 earnings to be in the range of $1.70 to $1.80.


I guess they don't like the litigation expense!!!  PEET is down 3.88 to 57.55 this morning.

Career Education falls short...

Career Education's (CECO) Q3 falls wide of the mark on a sharp drop in new student enrollment. The company reports an EPS of $0.15 on revenue of $431M, well below consensus expectations for an EPS of $0.34 on revenue of $457M. Additionally, the company announces its CEO Gary McCullough has resigned and appoints Chairman Steve Lesnik to the post.

CECO is getting hammered, down 6.38 to 9.57 (-40%)

Stocks gap higher on open...

I guess we are seeing a little relief rally this morning as traders digest all the world's news over night.  We saw a large reversal in the Chinese market to close much higher and I guess that is setting the tone.

Dow +133
Nas +19
S&P +15 to 1233

This VIX is down 1.00 to 33.85

Garmin says shipments fell...but raises forcast...

Garmin Ltd. (GRMN). The navigation device maker posted a lower quarterly profit as shipments fell, but raised its full-year forecast on higher margins. It forecast revenue of $2.6 billion and pro-forma earnings of $2.30-$2.40 a share. Garmin's third-quarter net income was $150.4 million, or 77 cents a share, down from $279.6 million, or $1.44 a share, a year ago.

GRMN is up 1.57 to 35.74 this morning.

Mastercard beats...stock flies...

MasterCard (MA): Q3 EPS of $5.63 beats by $0.82. Revenue of $1.81B (+27.3% Y/Y) beats by $100M.

Gross dollar volume of transactions grew 18.1% Y/Y, up from Q2's 16.4%. 13.6% growth in U.S. dollar volume, 20.4% growth in international volume. Processed transactions rose 20.5%, up from Q2's 17.4%. Free cash flow was $991M, up 72% Y/Y.

MA is currently up 27.72 to 362.02

Nike upgraded by Goldman...

Nike (NKE) jumps after Goldman upgrades to "Buy" and puts the stock on its "Conviction Buy" list. With shares at an all-time high, Goldman identifies Nike as a category leader and an outperformer in the S&P, also seeing the 2012 Olympics as a catalyst for even better performance.

NKE is up 1.45 to 95.33

Today's Upgrades and Downgrades...

These are some of Wednesday’s top analyst upgrades, downgrades, and initiations seen from Wall Street research calls.

American Water Works Company, Inc. (NYSE: AWK) added to Strong Buy List at Zacks.

Bank of America Corporation (NYSE: BAC) Cut to Hold at S&P Capital IQ (late-Tuesday).

Brookfield Infrastructure Partners LP (NYSE: BIP) reinstated as Outperform with $32 target at Credit Suisse.

Caterpillar Inc. (NYSE: CAT) Started as Overweight at Morgan Stanley.

Citigroup, Inc. (NYSE: C) Cut to Hold at S&P Capital IQ (late-Tuesday).

Corn Products International (NYSE: CPO) named Value Stock of the Day at Zacks.

Deere & Co. (NYSE: DE) Started as Underweight at Morgan Stanley.

Diamond Foods, Inc. (NASDAQ: DMND) Cut to Neutral at BofA/ML; Cut to Neutral at Janney.

Encana Corporation (NYSE: ECA) Cut to Neutral at BofA/ML.

Gap Inc. (NYSE: GPS) Raised to positive at Susquehanna.

Government Properties Income Trust (NYSE: GOV) Cut to Neutral at Janney.

Joy Global, Inc. (NASDAQ: JOYG) Started as Equalweight at Morgan Stanley.

J.P. Morgan Chase & Co. (NYSE: JPM) Cut to Hold at S&P Capital IQ (late-Tuesday).

OpenTable, Inc. (NASDAQ: OPEN) Cut to Neutral at BofA/ML; Cut to Market Perform at Morgan Keegan; Raised to Buy at ThinkEquity.

Seaspan Corporation (NYSE: SSW) Cut to Hold at Deutsche Bank.

Texas Roadhouse Inc. (NASDAQ: TXRH) Cut to Neutral at Credit Suisse.

United States Cellular Corporation (NYSE: USM) Cut to Underweight at Morgan Stanley.

Valero Energy Corporation (NYSE: VLO) Reiterated Buy with $35 target at Argus.

Discovery Channel posts better than expected results...

Discovery Communications Inc. (DISCA). The company reported better-than-expected quarterly results and the media company behind hit cable TV shows such as "Storm Chasers" and "Deadliest Catch" bumped up its full-year outlook. Its third-quarter net income rose to $237 million, or 59 cents a share.

CF Industries beats expectations...

CF Industries Holdings Inc. (CF). The fertilizer producer posted a spike in quarterly profit on Tuesday that widely beat Wall Street's expectations as the company successfully raised prices for nitrogen and phosphate. For the third quarter, it posted net income of $330.9 million, or $4.73 per share, compared with $48.2 million, or 67 cents per share, in the year-ago period.

CF is up 4 points to 162 premarket.

Sony slashes forecast to fourth straight loss...

Sony Corp (SNE) said it is headed for its fourth straight annual net loss, instead of a profit it forecast earlier, as Thai floods disrupted camera production, adding to losses from a soaring yen and price slides in its TVs and PCs in the United States and Europe.

SNE is trading down 7% premarket.

Comcast posts strong quarter...

Comcast Corp. (CMCSA). The cable operator posted a stronger quarterly profit, as its traditional cable business helped offset weaker results from two of its newer media properties, the NBC television network and Universal Pictures. It reported third-quarter net income of $908 million, or 33 cents a share. Revenue rose about 5 percent to $14.3 billion.

CMCSA stock is up slightly premarket.

Greek PM wins over cabinet...

Greek Prime Minister George Papandreou will be in the hot seat later when he will likely face a grilling from French President Nicolas Sarkozy and German Chancellor Angela Merkel about his surprise move to put the rescue package to a popular vote.

The market moved up and down yesterday based on this referendum.  In the morning, news came out that Sarkozy was pushing for a referendum, in the afternoon news came out that the referendum idea was dead, and the market rallied, then toward the close, the referendum was back on, and the market sold off. 

Looking at today's futures rally, this "referendum" thing might have been a one-day wonder, not surprising as that is how this market has been behaving.

"Headline of the Day" mode...total crap, but that is the market we are in.

Good Morning...

Stock index futures are pointing to a mild rebound at today's open as investors keep an eye on the situation in Europe and the drama surrounding the Greek bailout referendum.

The Fed will conclude its two-day meeting with an interest rate decision and statement at 12:30pm ET, followed by Fed chairman Ben Bernanke's news conference at 2:15pm ET.

Ahead of that, investors will be keying on the monthly ADP report on private sector employment for October.

Economists think the economy added 100,000 private sector jobs last month, slightly higher than the 91,000 registered in September.

Many of the nation's chain stores will report their individual October sales results this morning, closely watched as a possible indicator of how the holiday season may go.

Tuesday, November 1, 2011

Stocks close much lower...

Traders covered positons as we moved closer to the close...clearly afraid to hold overnight.

Dow -297
Nas -77
S&P -35 to 1218

Nothing much to report other than this market is clearly held hostage by Europe...ONCE AGAIN!!

It's getting a little bit old.

Stocks move back down...

Dow Jones reports a government spokesman as saying the Greek referendum on continuing with the EU bailouts will be moving forward. This contrasts with an earlier statement - which temporarily boosted the markets - that the idea was "dead." Stocks have moved back near session lows.

Stocks improving....

Following the last news from Greece, stocks are rebounding. 

Dow -181
Nas -52
S&P -22 to 1231

Leading stocks:

Ulta Cosmetics +3.00 to 70.29
Acme Packet +3.11 to 39.32
Costco +0.84 to 84.02
American Tower +2.52 to 57.60
Autozone +3.18 to 326.80

Yee Haw!!!

Papandreou's call for a referendum on the EU bailout is "basically dead," says a PASOK party official, as reported by a Greek journalist. Stocks and the euro shoot higher as Europe is fixed again!

Isn't this stupid that we are being held hostage to news coming out of Europe???  The market is now coming off a bottom here.

1:15 pm update...

Stocks still lower across the board...no buying so far.

Dow -293
Nas -81
S&P -34 to 1218

The Volatility Index is spiking higher up 7.11 to 37.07.  That's a big move for the VIX.

Possible relief on mortgage...

The Fed announces borrowers who were financially harmed during the mortgage foreclosure process by GMAC Mortgage, HSBC Finance, SunTrust Mortgage, or EMC Mortgage can request a free independent review to potentially receive compensation from the lenders in question.

At 11 am...

Stocks are still broadly lower, as all sectors are selling off.

Dow -218
Nas -54
S&P -25

Treasury yields are lower as well as the 10 year Treasury is back under 2%.

Ha!!! Are you kidding me???

Contrary to an earlier report, Groupon (GRPN) is keeping the anticipated price range for its IPO at $16-$18/share, according to a just-filed S-1. This would indicate an IPO size of $480-$540M, and a value for the company of $10.1-$11.4B.

Let it go up.  This will be one of the great IPO flops of all-time.  Give it a month, then short with both hands!!!

Stocks under pressure at open...

More European BS here at the open.  Traders using the European uncertainty to try to take away recent gains. 

Dow -236 to 11715
Nas -60
S&P -27 to 1225

Need to pay attention to the 1200 level on the S&P.  We need to hold that level if we are going to move forward.  Earnings for the most part have been positive, so stocks should move higher from here.

JNJ Baby Shampoo Dangerous??

Johnson & Johnson (JNJ) faces increasing pressure from a coalition of health and environment groups over its iconic Johnson's Baby Shampoo. The Campaign for Safe Cosmetics is pushing the company to "immediately" remove trace amounts of what it calls dangerous chemicals from the shampoo, while JNJ says will only gradually phase out the chemicals in question - pointing out they met regulatory approval.

Apple may ditch Mac Book Pro...

Fresh off a strong quarter for Mac shipments, Apple (AAPL) may be looking to overhaul its lineup. AppleInsider's sources claim the Mac Pro will be phased out in time, due to weak sales and the ability of cheaper systems to address high-end needs. At the same time, a Japanese site reports Apple will expand its MacBook Air offerings to include a 15-inch model.

Fed starts meeting today...

The Fed is due to start a two-day policy meeting today but is deeply divided about what to do next against the background of stubbonly higher unemployment and inflation of 3.9%. Three hawks reckon the Fed has already done too much while two doves believe it needs to do more, including tolerating even higher prices.

Pfizer beats...

Pfizer Inc. (PFE). The drugmaker reported better-than-expected quarterly results, helped by sales growth of its prescription drugs in emerging markets and its animal health, nutritionals and consumer healthcare products. It earned $3.74 billion, or 48 cents per share in the third quarter, including a $1.3 billion after-tax gain on the recent sale of its Capsugel business.

Good Morning...

Sizable losses for U.S. stocks ruined all sorts of "best month since" stats for Wall Street, and it looks like November won't get off to a much better start.

Stock index futures are sharply lower this morning, and world stock markets are also selling off on news that Greece will put the recent bailout plan to a referendum.